Or Russia only really wanted a defensive buffer between NATO and its borders.

A buffer with some depth which Israel lacked on Oct 7th.

quote:

Originally posted by Carpentermaass84:
Zelensky has bungled the defense of his country from the very start and has only played into Russia's hand at every turn. NATO is down to the last of its equipment reserves and Russia is holding back its best formations to storm toward the Polish border once Zelensky embezzles the last dollar on another mansion.

Wild speculation not based on ANY reliable, factual or even logical intel whatsoever...Propaganda much?

quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:
Or Russia only really wanted a defensive buffer between NATO and its borders.

A buffer with some depth which Israel lacked on Oct 7th.

Russia has been proclaiming this, quite emphatically at times, for THIRTY YEARS!

quote:

Originally posted by Carpentermaass84:
...Russia is holding back its best formations to storm toward the Polish border once Zelensky embezzles the last dollar on another mansion.

That's not going to happen. Putin is simply not going to do that.

I just watched a 1956 version of 1984. Sure it’s dated.

What stood out was how the State used the never ending war and perpetual fear of a vague enemy to control the population.

quote:

Originally posted by Carpentermaass84:
Zelensky has bungled the defense of his country from the very start and has only played into Russia's hand at every turn. NATO is down to the last of its equipment reserves and Russia is holding back its best formations to storm toward the Polish border once Zelensky embezzles the last dollar on another mansion.

Horseshit.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by Carpentermaass84:
...Russia is holding back its best formations to storm toward the Polish border once Zelensky embezzles the last dollar on another mansion.

That's not going to happen. Putin is simply not going to do that.

Agreed, the "embezzles the last dollar" part is probably true, but, the rest is propaganda to feed the theft.

The really bad part of this expensive mess is that the US and NATO are now in a position where they're going to look like shit when the inevitable happens. FJB and FNATO.

Top Ukrainian General's Conflict With Zelensky On Display In CNN Op-Ed

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...ky-display-cnn-op-ed

Amid persistent more-than-rumors that Ukraine's President Zelensky is trying to fire his defense chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny, CNN has given the embattled general op-ed space to speak some things that are certain to pour fuel to the fire.

Prior international reports, including in CNN, said that on Monday Zelensky asked his top general to step down. Zaluzhny reportedly refused. We earlier asked the question, is there a brewing mutiny as the split between the military leadership and Zelensky administration grows wider?

In Zaluzhny's CNN op-ed, published late in the day Thursday, the top general has continued saying things which run afoul of Zelensky's more positive, rosy narrative as the latter desperately tries to attract more Western weaponry and funding, at a moment many European nations are struggling with depleted domestic stockpiles.

"We must contend with a reduction in military support from key allies, grappling with their own political tensions," Zaluzhny writes. "Our partners’ stocks of missiles, air defense interceptors and ammunition for artillery is becoming exhausted, due to the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine, but also from a global shortage of propellant charges."

"Russia, taking note of how developments in the Middle East have distracted international attention, might seek to provoke further conflicts elsewhere," he concludes further, echoing things Zelensky has also acknowledged.

Perhaps Ukraine is preparing for the deeply unpopular (unpopular especially among Ukrainians) move for a new mass mobilization? The general's words hint at this...

We must acknowledge the significant advantage enjoyed by the enemy in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.

But again, this is sure to rile his boss Zelensky, given it comes off as a deep criticism of the Ukrainian government's leadership and capabilities ("inability of state institutions... to improve the manpower levels...").

And here is more from Zaluzhny's op-ed, where he offers further self-critique of the state of readiness of the nation:

Finally, we remain hamstrung by the imperfections of the regulatory framework in our country, as well as the partial monopolization of the defense industry. These lead to production bottlenecks – in ammunition, for instance – which further deepen Ukraine’s dependence on its allies for supplies.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg too is acknowledging the open divisions in a Friday report:

General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi is a national hero for Ukrainians after repelling the first wave of Vladimir Putin’s invasion on the outskirts of Kyiv.

But two years into the war, setbacks on the battlefield and political jealousies in the capital have soured his relationship with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. This week, the president tried — and failed — to force out his commander-in-chief, pulling back the curtain on a damaging rift at the heart of the Ukraine war effort.



The dispute hearkens especially back to a November interview Gen. Zaluzhny gave to The Economist. He had angered the Zelensky administration and external allies by being the first top official to paint a very negative picture of how Ukraine's military was fairing on the battlefield. What's more is the admission quickly caught the eye of other major publications, most notably The New York Times, which underscored "His comments marked the first time a top Ukrainian commander said the fighting had reached an impasse...".

The NYT described that "It is the most candid assessment so far by a leading Ukrainian official of the military’s stalled counteroffensive." But having taken on massive and still mounting casualties, it's likely that rank and file conscripts would welcome the defense chief's realism.

Wait, wait, wait. Let's hold on a second, here. I was assured that the Ukrainians weren't Nazis, and that was just a fake pretense for the Russians invading. People have gone so far as to say the Russians are the real Nazis. It simply cannot be so that Zelensky, our modern-day Churchill, is at threat of being deposed by an actual Nazi, can it?



Hey, when does this year's big spring offensive that's going to finish off the Russians begin?

quote:

Originally posted by P220 Smudge:
Wait, wait, wait. Let's hold on a second, here. I was assured that the Ukrainians weren't Nazis, and that was just a fake pretense for the Russians invading. People have gone so far as to say the Russians are the real Nazis. It simply cannot be so that Zelensky, our modern-day Churchill, is at threat of being deposed by an actual Nazi, can it?



Hey, when does this year's big spring offensive that's going to finish off the Russians begin?

A lady I work with immigrated from Ukraine in 1992. She mentioned the western Ukraine (at that time) was dominated by Nazi like parties. That's where we're sending our money to, Nazi land. FYI: The offensive is about to fire up with a vengeance any day now.

It's gonna be 'Shock and Awe' I tell ya!

Tucker's interview of Putin may be one of the biggest worldwide news events in recent times.

P.S. Unless it gets cancelled.

quote:

Originally posted by sse:
Tucker's interview of Putin may be one of the biggest worldwide news events in recent times.

P.S. Unless it gets cancelled.

Hopefully this normalizes Putin to the remaining holdouts in our party who view him as a dictator and enemy of the US. Glad to see Carlson doing much bigger things after leaving Fox.

quote:

A lady I work with immigrated from Ukraine in 1992. She mentioned the western Ukraine (at that time) was dominated by Nazi like parties.

When the Germans invaded in 1941, they found no shortage of collaborators. Whole SS regiments were composed of Ukes. Other Ukes (among them a group euphemistically called "Auxiliary Police") also took part in massacres of Jews and others. Yes, I know this was a long time ago, but I suspect little has changed since then, lurking below the surface.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: egregore,

Zelensky Fires Top General, Appoints New Commander, In Major Shake-Up

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...nitiates-major-shake

It's official: as we predicted even starting last month Ukraine's top general and commander of the armed forces is now out.

President Zelensky has confirmed that Gen. Valery Zaluzhny has been dismissed, in what appears part of a broader shake-up of top military and government leadership. Zelensky said it is "time for renewal".

Zelensky said Thursday he met with his army chief and that while it's time for significant "changes" - Zaluzhny should remain "on his team". Though the decision had been rumored and reported for over a week, presumably the stall was to negotiate and ensure peaceful transition of the top defense post. There were also widespread reports that Zaluzhny had refused to step down.

"We discussed what renewal the Armed Forces of Ukraine need. We also discussed who could be in the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The time for this renewal is now," Zelensky announced in an English statement on X and Telegram.

Zaluzhny had just before the announcement confirmed he had an "important and serious conversation" with Zelensky which focused on changing battlefield tactics and strategy.

The now former top commander has huge popularity among military ranks and especially far-right, ultranationalist and neo-Nazi elements. Will his firing result in mutiny or rebellion among some units?

Very quickly on the heels of news of Zaluzhny's dismissal, Ukraine announced the appointment of Oleksandr Syrskyi as the new commander-in-chief the armed forces. Until now, Gen. Syrskyi was Ukraine's ground forces commander.

According to Ukraine's FT correspondent:

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov thanked Zaluzhny for his “achievements and victories,” saying that the general “had one of the most difficult tasks - to lead the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the Great War with Russia.”

A new military leadership team is expected to take over as of today. President Biden just yesterday acknowledged Ukraine is in "dire straights" right now, after Zelensky has struggled to attract more weaponry, and amid war weary Western publics, and European nations which have seen their own stockpiles drained.

Zelensky is likely hoping this major change and shake-up could once again attract and renew Western defense support and aid. To illustrate just how dire the situation is, most might have missed this subtle detail in The New York Times days ago...

‘They Come in Waves’: Ukraine Goes on Defense Against a Relentless Foe (archived) - New York Times, Feb 4 2024
...At the hot spots of the eastern front line, Ukrainian troops are outmanned, outgunned and digging in.

“They come in waves,” said Lt. Oleksandr Shyrshyn, 29, the deputy battalion commander in the 47th Mechanized Brigade. “And they do not stop.”

The geopolitical blog Moon of Alabama was the first to highlight it, and accurately observed the following days ago [emphasis ZH]:

A Lieutenant at age 28 is likely a seasoned one. But in the role of a 'deputy battalion commander'?

What happened to the S3, the Major and nominal deputy battalion commander? What happened to the six Captains the battalion is supposed to have? All of them should be better trained and qualified to take on the role of a deputy battalion commander than a mere Lieutenant.

This small detail, a Lieutenant as deputy battalion commander, tells me more about the battalion's state that any flowery description of casualties.

Likely it is too late for any major turn-around for Kiev forces, though the Zelensky administration has lately been teasing the potential for a large new military mobilization of hundreds of thousands, which is sure to be hugely unpopular among the Ukrainian population.

Sickening.. more unprovoked attacks from Zelensky using our weapons and intelligence services. I'm glad Biden uses my tax dollars to murder civilians....

https://www.rt.com/russia/5920...raine-bakery-attack/


"Nebenzia recalled that in August 2022, Skibitsky admitted that in order to use the HIMARS systems, Kiev must first obtain target clearance from Washington. “So it is quite obvious who was involved in the Lisichansk attack,” the ambassador said. This also applies to the “dozens if not hundreds” of other crimes committed by Kiev using Western weapons, such as the recent downing of a Russian Il-76 aircraft carrying Ukrainian POWs, he added."

Zaluzhny out, Oleksandr Syrsky in, to what purpose?

A TV comedian before he ran for president, Zelensky made the change so he could call the battlefield shots

https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/...-in-to-what-purpose/

Volodymyr Zelensky has finally succeeded in firing General Valery Zaluzhny. This time, according to reporting coming from Kiev, Zaluzhny has accepted the order and has thanked Ukrainians for their sacrifice. Zelensky will now fire most of the top brass in the army aligned with Zaluzhny. Choosing Syrsky is somewhat of a risk, because Syrsky and Zaluzhny are friends.

On the other hand, Syrsky is not known for achieving victories. He is an older (58 years), plodding general who now commands the ground troops. It is the ground troops who are losing along the line of contact.

No one can say for sure what Zelensky will accomplish. Kiev is blaming the failed offensive on Zaluzhny and he was getting ready to blame him also for the fall of Avdiivka (that will happen soon).

Exactly how a new team can make any difference is hard to say. Zelensky fired Zaluzhny so he could call the shots on the battlefield.

Zelensky has no military background. Before running for President he was a TV comedian.

Washington at first did not approve of dumping Zaluzhny, regarding him (as do the Russians) as a competent and serious military leader. Firing Zaluzhny is, in US terms, the same as firing the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Lurking in the background is Kiev’s new draconian conscription law, which has now passed the first reading in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament. Next week the Rada will have its second reading and the bill will be sent to Zelensky for signature.

Zaluzhny refused to back the conscription law, and he likewise refused to go to the Rada to push lawmakers into passing it.

Aside from those who have left the country (the borders are now closed to draft-age men). the new law will impact either the Ukrainian elites or the children of the elites. This is likely to cause considerable blowback on Kiev. Reportedly some of the Rada members already have left or are planning to leave the country. Presumably they also will want to protect their families. If Zelensky actually imposes real sanctions on the elites, he may find the length of his presidency dramatically shortened.

Elites in Ukraine also face other challenges. The lack of billions of dollars from NATO countries means salaries, pensions, and benefits won’t be paid to government workers or to the military. While the EU is getting ready to shovel some funds to Ukraine (over the next four years), the EU needs to find the money and levy appropriations on its members. There’s the rub, as Shakespeare put it.

The US is also “trending” toward some sort of authorization in the Senate for Ukraine, but whether it goes through both houses is still uncertain. It may be that Congress will drag approval out while things unfold in Ukraine.

On the battlefront the Russians continue to gain ground and throw back Ukrainian counter attacks.

Avdiivka is almost split in half, and Ukrainian strongholds in the city, especially in high rise areas, are being booby trapped by Ukrainian soldiers before they pull out. The city is strategically important because it is so close to Donetsk, and beyond Avdiivka there are not many defenses in place.

There is also the chance Russia will launch a larger scale offensive, probably in the Kharkiv direction. Reportedly there are 40,000 new Russian troops formed up for what might best be called a mini-offensive.

Alternatively, the Russians may decide to drive toward Kiev. They have already increased rocket attacks that include Kiev, and if the Ukrainian army starts to fold then the Russians will throw more troops into the fight aimed at Kiev.

Zaluzhny may beat them to it. He will be hearing a lot of offers to take over the country. Syrsky is unlikely to want to defend Zelensky, and some of the specialist brigades (Azov, Kraken) are likely to be tied up in the Kharkiv direction. The Russians have also started specifically targeting them, seeking to weaken those units before any new offensive.

There are lots of rumblings in Kiev. Politicians who have been quiet during the war are now saying they could replace Zelensky. The Kiev mayor, Vitali Klitschko, has accused Zelensky of being an authoritarian. Other Ukrainian personalities, Yulia Tymoshenko for example, are starting to act like presidential candidates, even though martial law is projected to be extended again by Zelensky.

Washington now knows that the very best that can be hoped for is that the war continues and the Russians fail to consolidate their territorial gains. But this is a rather illusory outlook as the Russians are not paying a high price to sit back and let things drift. In fact, Russian leaders are starting to act as if they smelled blood.

Biden may have to face either the collapse of Ukraine as it is defeated by Russia or, possibly, a replacement government friendly to Moscow.

In Europe there is talk about sending in troops to save Ukraine. Looked at from a purely operational standpoint, sending European brigades to fight is almost impossible because the brigades are situated too far away to be of any use. In any case, this is mostly desperation talk, not reality.

Retired Polish generals, and some British, are pushing the idea of a military bailout. But, as serious people in Europe know, NATO lacks the tanks and armor, ammunition and even troops to carry off any operation lasting for more than a few days.

NATO could try to punish Russia with airpower, but Russia has good air defenses and a capable air force. Therefore there would be no guarantee of success and many chances for Russian retaliation against NATO bases, even NATO cities.

If the US, with airpower, is finding it hard to stop third-rate low tech adversaries in Iraq and Syria, on what basis would the US and NATO think they can prevail against a near-peer?

Washington and the other NATO players should be thinking about finding a way out, since pushing arms to the Ukrainians may not work, especially if there isn’t anyone to shoot the guns.

Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article was first published on his Weapons and Strategy Substack and is republished with permission.

quote:

Originally posted by wcb6092:
Zaluzhny out, Oleksandr Syrsky in, to what purpose?

(Frivolous jorno speculations skipped)

Fun fact: Syrsky was next in line after previous commander was dismissed but was passed by Zaluzhny back in 2021. Syrsky is the guy who commanded the Ground Forces when they routed Red Army in the fall of 2022, kicking them first out of Kharkiv oblast and then from the only oblast capital they managed to capture throught the whole war - Kherson. No need for any pretzel logic to justify his promotion - he is the most obvioius successor to Zaluzhny.

12 Senate Republicans Vote to Send Ukraine Another $60B After Vowing to Put U.S. Border First

This week, 17 Senate Republicans joined Democrats to approve sending Ukraine another $60 billion. Twelve of those Republicans previously suggested they would not help send Ukraine any more American taxpayer money until the United States’s border was secure from illegal immigration.

On Thursday, Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Susan Collins (R-ME), John Cornyn (R-TX), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Kennedy (R-LA), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Jerry Moran (R-KS), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mitt Romney (R-UT), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Dan Sullivan (R-AK), John Thune (R-SD), Thom Tillis (R-NC), Roger Wicker (R-MS), and Todd Young (R-IN) joined every Senate Democrat excluding Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to send billions more in taxpayer dollars to Ukraine.

The money, if approved by the House, will fund weapons and military training, among other things, for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Twelve of those Republicans who voted for the Ukraine funding, coupled with $14.1 billion for Israel in its war with Hamas, previously suggested to the media that they would not support more funding for Ukraine until America’s own southern border was secure.”So in order for our national security interests to be served, we must have a four-prong approach here. Israel, the border, Ukraine, and Taiwan,” Capito said in December 2023, for example, while Cassidy said, “We got to support our allies, but we got to secure our own border first and the Biden administration has not done so” the same month.

Similarly, in December 2023, Ernst said ,”The issue is not Ukraine, and it’s not President Zelensky. It’s our own national security at our southern border” and Collins called reforms at the southern border an “absolutely essential part” of any funding package that includes more money for Ukraine.

In December 2023, Cornyn, Grassley, Kennedy, Romney, Sullivan, Thune, and Wicker all gave statements to the media suggesting the southern border was a priority for them ahead of Ukraine:

“They want tens of billions of dollars to help our friends and allies overseas, but they’re not willing to do what’s necessary to prevent a potential crisis at the border. The Biden administration just does not seem to care,” Cornyn said.

“If there isn’t something reached in regard to our own border and we seem to have concern about the border of Israel and Gaza, Russia and Ukraine, we have to have the same consideration about our own border,” Grassley said.

“Now, the president sent us a national security bill and we said, OK, we’re going to do national security, but we’re not going to pass your bill until you close the border. And the president said, surely you’re not serious. And the Republicans in the Senate said, don’t call me Shirley and we are serious. We’re as serious as four heart attacks and a stroke,” Kennedy said.

“So, we want to solve that to secure the border. I just saw the President of the United States say that we’ve got to secure the border. He’s right. So, any effort that doesn’t do that will be rejected by Republicans,” Romney said.

“Republicans are not bluffing: There will be no agreement on further Ukraine aid without serious measures to secure America’s own border. Our border is priority number one,” Sullivan said.

“A lot of us Republicans are very eager to get Ukraine the aid it needs. But we cannot – we cannot – tend to our national security interests abroad while ignoring the national security crisis on our own doorstep,” Thune said.

“We needed to demonstrate that Republicans are not going to pass a supplemental appropriation bill unless it takes care of very important restrictions on the southern border,” Wicker said.

Young said last month about the southern border, “I don’t believe we should take this off the table… let’s get something consequential done for the American people” while in negotiations with other Senators.

McConnell, who has previously said that Ukraine is Republicans’ number one priority, told the media in November 2023 that “any serious supplemental legislation with a shot of passing the Senate in the coming weeks will have to take meaningful steps toward fixing the Biden administration’s border crisis.”

Likewise, Rounds was abundantly clear in November 2023 when he said that “Any bill with aid for Israel and Ukraine must include policy changes at our southern border.”

Already, American taxpayers have been forced to send at least $113 billion to Ukraine in their war with Russia. The latest pool of money, if approved by the House and signed by President Joe Biden, would ensure that nearly $200 billion gets into the hands of Ukraine officials — much of which has gone unaccounted for.