https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/1...-on-the-horizon.html


Jim Cramer doesn’t see a recession on the horizon, says recent conjecture “just doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny”
PUBLISHED TUE, JUL 18 20236:57 PM EDTUPDATED TUE, JUL 18 20237:53 PM EDT

KEY POINTS
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Tuesday he doesn’t think recent recession discourse holds much weight.

“Earnings season has shown the recession thesis just doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny, even if so many so-called experts tell us otherwise,” he said.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer told investors on Tuesday that he doesn’t think all the buzz about a recession being just around the corner holds much weight.

Looking at major earnings reports that have come out so far, Cramer said several players in key sectors — including homebuilding, banking, and travel and leisure — show that a recession might not be as inevitable as some may think.

Cramer: The Cassandras are wrong about the market (again) — here's why I'm upbeat
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“Those who cling to the notion that we’re about to enter recession must find all of these examples daunting, if not depressing,” Cramer said. “But earnings season has shown the recession thesis just doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny, even if so many so-called experts tell us otherwise.”

Cramer said homebuilders should have been hit hardest by the Federal Reserve’s tightening, but instead performed well due to the housing shortage. He then pointed to airlines, which he called part of a “roaring bull market,” as another indicator that the recession might not come. Cramer also noted that PepsiCo hasn’t seen a trade-down even as it has raised its prices.

“Suffice it to say, you’re not supposed to get this kind of action at this point in a rate hike cycle,” Cramer said. “When the Fed tightens, we expect it to crush the commerce and that just hasn’t really happened.”

Cramer said many of the country’s top banks — including JPMorgan Chase
, Wells Fargo
and Morgan Stanley
— reported great quarters, but Bank of America
, whose revenue topped expectations, was especially notable. This banking boom, according to Cramer, wouldn’t be possible unless consumers were flush with cash.

“If the bears were right about the inevitable recession, it’d be the opposite: a strapped consumer, out of cash and hanging on by her fingertips,” he said. “Defaults are minimal, including defaults in the dreaded commercial real estate space, which I keep telling you was a well overdone crisis.”


When Jim Cramer is taking a position about something investment related, my first instinct is that the exact opposite is about to happen. Didn't he say almost the exact thing about Lehman Bros and Bear Stearns before the GFC?

Jim Cramer...There's likely a DEPRESSION on the horizon knowing his ability to accurately predict anything!

Jim Cramer also recommended Silicon Valley Bank right before it collapsed. The guy has two brain cells waiving bye to each other. It’s impossible to take any thought this guy has seriously.

The mention of banks in that article says a lot about the writer, in the real world, the hedge investors killed one bank, then shorted the others.
Now they are bringing those bank stocks back up, profiting both ways.
He has no clue what's going on, or he does and is playing the game.

Take whatever this asshole says and do the opposite. So I guess there’s a huge recession coming.

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
Take whatever this asshole says and do the opposite. So I guess there’s a huge recession coming.

Soon as I read the headline I thought, “Well, we’re screwed.”

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:
Jim Cramer...There's likely a DEPRESSION on the horizon knowing his ability to accurately predict anything!

That guy is a clown.

He recommended a bunch of tech stocks in 1999, before they tanked and several went out of business.

in 2007, he recommended bank stocks (specifically including Lehman Brothers), before they crashed and several went out of business.

At one point, an article in the WSJ showed that betting against Cramer's "buy" recommendations using short-term options yielded a 25% gain in a month.

How is this guy still relevant? He's been wrong way more than he's been right. Broken clock status.

Always remember, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cramer may be a buffoon who is often dead wrong, but his statements are informed by the political leanings of his employer (as are all CNBC commentators). I am getting worn out by the huge grain of salt I have to carry around when listening to his spew. When inflation was a threat, it was going to be temporary and mild, now that efforts to combat inflation have led to the strong possibility of a recession, guess what, that's no problem either.

It's politics people, not financial reporting (and therefore I am not interjecting politics into the thread, it is already political). Apologies in advance if anyone doesn't see it that way.

The markets are manipulated, and NOT for our benefit...We're just along for the ride!

Cramer is a charlatan, a complete dolt when it comes to finances, stocks, etc. He is the guy who propped up and praised Elizabeth Holmes (the "new Steve Jobs") and Sam Bankman-Fried and his company FTX (the "new JP Morgan"). He got Bear Stearns, Meta (Facebook) spectacularly wrong, along with many other stock buys. I remember during the Obama years, someone called him a "carnival barker" to his face on TV, a perfect description.

There's an inverse Cramer ETF too...

Inverse Cramer

Banks - since we haven't learned a damn thing.

I think banks will be where it all starts yet again. Maybe not to the catastrophic degree of '08, but similar vein.

Basis of my concern is after just this few years it seems that greed has once again overtaken common sense in the mortgage banking sector. Specifically what I'm concerned with is mortgage lending.

There seems to be more and more lenders who are willing to give, and borrowers willing to take, loans at relatively high interest rates with very limited if any down payments. Frequently in housing markets that have seen substantial run-up in pricing recently and while maybe not poised for a Vegas-style bust, do seem to have some value risk which can start the whole death spiral again.

I've known numerous examples of this over past year or two, most recent is daughter of one of our employees, early/mid 30s, living outside Ft. Worth. Decide to buy a home, haven't been able to scrape up the required down payment for their $500K house and were borrowing from another family member. How much was this whopping cash need you ask; $10,000. I didn't ask for details, but I suspect it's not even a down payment but instead going toward closing costs in actuality. They don't have $10K and are borrowing $500K against a likely ballooned up house value.

That market is a good example of one that has gone up a lot, even more in other parts of DFW. Our home we sold there in 2017 recently resold for over twice(!!) what we sold it for. And we got fair value at the time.

In '08 I remember a conversation with a friend just a little too late on how we could find our way to shorting the mortgage lender market, ran out of time for that. Not just one or two banks, but a broad swath of that market.

If anyone has an answer for that please post.

Oh and Jim Cramer? About as reliable as the weatherman and with less science.

Damn! Time for a group buy on Vaseline...

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:
Banks - since we haven't learned a damn thing.

I think banks will be where it all starts yet again. Maybe not to the catastrophic degree of '08, but similar vein.

In '08 I remember a conversation with a friend just a little too late on how we could find our way to shorting the mortgage lender market, ran out of time for that. Not just one or two banks, but a broad swath of that market.

If anyone has an answer for that please post.

Oh and Jim Cramer? About as reliable as the weatherman and with less science.

You could short non-FNMA heavy MBS ETFs and regional banks that have synthetic MBS derivative exposure. Residential MBS securities don't seem to be the same risk category this go round due to the volume held by FNMA and GNMA, etc. Regional banks with exposure to commercial and mezzanine lending and similar derivatives are in a tough spot right now.

How many retail and commercial properties are vacant or soon will be due to systemic changes in the market? Cap rate contraction in the current interest rate environment is also a real threat to the owners of many properties in the commercial sector.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: HKAngusKL,

I'm not going to Google but seems like Kramer was suspended and sanctioned for pump and dump during the 90s. If I misremembered, kindly disregard.

quote:

Jim Cramer Doesn't See a Recession on the Horizon

Don't tell me, he's gpt a book out telling us why.

I actually hope he's right. But his track record rivals Paul Krugman's for spectacularly wrong predictions.

He made a lot of money.

Now he's in the entertainment business.......

"Jim Cramer Doesn't See a Recession on the Horizon"

Based upon the facts about this guy in evidence, I am confident that he doesn't see it.

Whether or not there is a recession coming, on this matter, Jim Cramer is leading from behind. Everybody else has admitted that the recession they expected last year to happen this year didn't come. And the touters have already changed their views so he's a Johnny come lately here.

around 2005 through 2007, I was paying for his email service that would send out which stocks he was going to buy for his fund. The subscription wasn't cheap.I took a bath on several of his "tips." He had an uncanny ability to tout stocks by having the CEO come on his show that was going to tank shortly due to some material issues. I still remember Bauch & Laumb along with some fracking company. He's definitely a shill in my book.