How is your 401k doing?

"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor

June 08, 2023, 10:53 AM

6guns

I'm very pleased with my portfolio these days.

Time in the market.

January 21, 2025, 03:52 PM

chellim1

It was great for 2024!
What are your expectations for 2025?

Are Return Expectations For 2025 Too High?
https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...ations-2025-too-high

March 04, 2025, 12:04 PM

radioman

************** Old Thread Notice*************

Well, it was looking better a few weeks ago. I guess these things are cyclical.

March 04, 2025, 12:45 PM

ElToro

Rough week or so. I’ve Been buying more in IRA and tax sale account. Recently changed jobs and rolled everything into an IRA and have been dollar cost averaging that back into the market on regular buy dates. If it has another few days like today I will make some big purchases outside of those 2x a month buys.

Like in Feb/ March 2020. Buying opportunity of a lifetime loaded up on oil when market price was below zero if you recall. Bought some other stuff to the point of pain and now I regret not buying more.

If you are retired or fixed income don’t hurt yourself. But you should already have several months of cash outside the market anyway.

March 04, 2025, 01:40 PM

RogueJSK

If the market is doing well, I continue to make my regular contributions. And if the markets are doing poorly... I continue to make my regular contributions. Just means the stocks are on sale.

You gotta be able to separate the short term emotions from the long term goals.

March 04, 2025, 01:54 PM

joel9507

quote:
I guess these things are cyclical

Words to live by!

March 04, 2025, 01:57 PM

BigSwede

OW my 401k

March 04, 2025, 02:22 PM

rizzle

The DOW is around $42k , I don't know what the maximum is, $100k? or can it go above that.
Some things about the market I don't understand, I remember Black Monday when it lost 20% in one day, 500 points, to $1,700. Now. it seems, a 500 point loss in one day is not unusual. Stocks seemed to be priced high to me, but, like I said, I don't understand how high the DOW can go.

March 04, 2025, 02:32 PM

chellim1

quote:
I don't understand how high the DOW can go.

To infinity and beyond!
The DOW at 42k is just a number...

BTW, when I posted above, on Jan. 21 I did lighten up my exposure to equities from 100% to a 70/30 mix. I'm sticking with that for awhile.

March 04, 2025, 02:42 PM

SIG4EVA

Just took a 10k dump. Part of the process.

March 04, 2025, 02:56 PM

JohnCourage

It's not pretty but things are a bit crazy right now so I am not surprised. When things calm and the economy starts to see some positive effects from the America 1st agenda I expect to be back in business.

March 04, 2025, 03:37 PM

Fly-Sig

We've been at something like 5% equities, 25% silver, 5% gold, and the rest in US T-Bills. A market correction is way overdue.

A couple of months ago I started systematically buying back into equities, a little bit each month. My goal is 30% equities. Two reasons; 1) if the market is going down I can dollar cost average on the way down, and 2) diversification includes hedging strategies. My basic strategy is based on assumptions but I could be wrong, and being out of equities is not a good long term idea. If the market goes up, I need to be in it now instead of too late.

No doubt all the history and logic of the market says we are quite a bit overdue for a big correction. The media have been as honest about the economy for the last 9 years as they were about Biden's mental acuity, Russiagate, and Hunter's laptop. The masses have acted as if the media were correct that the economy was great under Biden, but eventually reality will return to the markets.

March 07, 2025, 11:24 AM

BigSwede

ooof

Time to do some buying

March 07, 2025, 12:46 PM

RogueJSK

I'm basically back to where I was ~60 days ago.

Losing 2 months worth of gains barely moves the needle in the grand scheme. (Especially after the prior year's worth of excellent returns.)

Breathe.

March 07, 2025, 01:22 PM

911Boss

I’m gradually making ground, up about 1.25% YTD.

My “target” is 4% for the year to meet my “needs”, 6% for the year to be “comfortable”, and 9% for the year to be “happy”.

Having recently retired, I am pretty conservative. I have left my Defined Contribution account in the State system for them to manage, not (yet) “educated” enough to make a decision on rolling it over into a 401K. I do have some ability to select between different funds and shifted some from a lower performing fund to a higher performing fund this morning that will hopefully bump returns up a little.

It is a bit unnerving watching the market go up 500 one day, down 600 the next, followed by additional a days of 300-400 point swings one way or the other. Hoping things will settle down in 4-6 months as new policies and such stabilize things. That is part of why I am not more “active” in making changes. The state system is pretty conservative and seems to keep me in the range I need to be comfortable.

Last year I hit 8.5% for the year, I am optimistic I will do at least as well this year.

March 07, 2025, 05:31 PM

Georgeair

Went into 2025 expecting extreme volatility but ultimately no huge up or down permanence.
Getting part one…..

March 07, 2025, 05:45 PM

6guns

Everyone is freaking out over the tariffs. And not without good reason. Company's are seeing the effects, but I believe it'll be a short(er) time hurt. Once things settle I think we'll be better off.

March 07, 2025, 06:00 PM

Fly-Sig

quote:
Originally posted by 911Boss:
I’m gradually making ground, up about 1.25% YTD.

My “target” is 4% for the year to meet my “needs”, 6% for the year to be “comfortable”, and 9% for the year to be “happy”.

Having recently retired, I am pretty conservative.
.
.
.
It is a bit unnerving watching the market go up 500 one day, down 600 the next, followed by additional a days of 300-400 point swings one way or the other.

Congratulations on being retired!

A few thoughts for you:

1) In your working years the goal is to save enough wealth to not have to work. One could say the goal is to achieve financial independence.

2) At retirement, you have by definition reached financial independence. You did it! Accumulating more wealth is no longer your goal because you are financially independent.

3) A primary goal in retirement is to not lose financial independence! As my college roommate wrote in big letters on the wall "DON'T FUCK IT UP". That means don't gamble away your nest egg with unnecessarily risky investments, do spend within your plan, and then you'll sleep well.

Now is time to be defensive and thoughtful. Make a plan and execute it. No need to watch the market daily if it makes you anxious, and for sure you should not be playing the market or trading with any monies that you are counting on. Whatever plan makes sense for you, write it down and coldly execute it. e.g. 30% equities in well diversified low cost ETFs, 70% in very safe fixed income such as government bonds and high quality money market accounts. Or 60/40, or something else that is smart for your situation. Withdraw at whatever rate is right for you. We use 6% per year as our cap, with 4% being a frequently quoted number as being safe from ever running out.

March 07, 2025, 08:36 PM

911Boss

quote:
Originally posted by Fly-Sig:

Congratulations on being retired!

A few thoughts for you:

1) In your working years the goal is to save enough wealth to not have to work. One could say the goal is to achieve financial independence.

2) At retirement, you have by definition reached financial independence. You did it! Accumulating more wealth is no longer your goal because you are financially independent.

3) A primary goal in retirement is to not lose financial independence! As my college roommate wrote in big letters on the wall "DON'T FUCK IT UP". That means don't gamble away your nest egg with unnecessarily risky investments, do spend within your plan, and then you'll sleep well.

Now is time to be defensive and thoughtful. Make a plan and execute it. No need to watch the market daily if it makes you anxious, and for sure you should not be playing the market or trading with any monies that you are counting on. Whatever plan makes sense for you, write it down and coldly execute it. e.g. 30% equities in well diversified low cost ETFs, 70% in very safe fixed income such as government bonds and high quality money market accounts. Or 60/40, or something else that is smart for your situation. Withdraw at whatever rate is right for you. We use 6% per year as our cap, with 4% being a frequently quoted number as being safe from ever running out.

I have spent countless hours over the past 5 years or so planning for this. So happy to be able to be retired at 61.

I have a multi-pronged retirement income:
Defined Benefit State Pension
Defined Contribution State retirement account (kinda like a 401k, but different. Can be rolled into a 401K at any point)
Social Security (turned 62 last month, first check next month)

I plotted it all out living off my State pension and DC account from retiring in July last year through now.

With SS starting next month, there will be a big drop in my DC dispersement.

Once I hit Medicare age, and no longer paying $2000/mo for health insurance between me and my wife, the DC dispersement will drop even more, assuming I maintain that 4% or better return I’ll still have lots left at the age of 90. If I can keep 5.25% or better, it should last and grow in perpetuity.

I’ve got it plotted out 90 years old, adjusting every few years price increases, etc. Also have a conservative “cushion” built in. Should have a better idea of how well I planned after my first full year or two of retirement.

At some point I will consult a professional planner but too many balls in the air at this point to get into looking at making any big changes.