I still see these guys that are calling for a market crash this year. Most of them have been saying that the last few years. I wonder if they just predict that until it happens.

^^^ There are the perennial bears... always living in fear. They miss the upside every market cycle.

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I still see these guys that are calling for a market crash this year. Most of them have been saying that the last few years. I wonder if they just predict that until it happens.

I like Gareth Soloway at Verified Investing for guessing the future. He's a very knowledgeable chart reader. He makes it clear that the charts are about probabilities not certainties, which means you increase your win:loss ratio but you will certainly still have some losing trades. He is very much a short term trader rather than an economist. Right now he is seeing signs of significant corrections this year. He doesn't predict if that means recession or a long term stagnation.

https://m.youtube.com/@verifiedinvesting

My guess from surveying a lot of sources is that Trump and the new Fed chairman will try to keep short term interest rates low and let inflation rise. If the Republicans can hold Congress in November, optimism will keep us out of a near term recession. But we'll see money moving out of short term Treasuries into commodities, and some into the stock market. That will help keep the market buoyed up despite soft employment.

The dems are going to go full bore trash talking the economy from now until the election, which is imo a big wildcard. It's going to be a choppy and volatile market this year.

I'm one of the pessimists who for years have believed the economy must crash due to the national debt and high personal debt levels. Global de-dollarization is real. Other than irrational mass psychology (steered by the media and politicians), I cannot explain why the consequences of western debt haven't appeared.

(I may be back next year saying the same thing after the markets boom this year... )

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I still see these guys that are calling for a market crash this year. Most of them have been saying that the last few years. I wonder if they just predict that until it happens.

It's a hard lesson to learn: time in the market beats timing the market. But what if you don't have enough time remaining to live through the next recovery?

I expected a market recession in the last two years of Biden. The precursors where there: high inflation, increasing unemployment but it didn't happen. I suspect market manipulation by Big Money.

UCO was a good buy for me (up 25% so far) as well as LYB (LyondellBasell). LYB is up 32% for me since I purchased it. I’m only up; 13% on XOM but at least it pays dividends. Most of my other stocks are dismal, uranium stocks were doing well until this war.

What are some other good buys right now? I am staying pretty conservative since I am nearing retirement but I also do not want to miss out on the gains this year. Hopefully FOMO won’t come and bite me.

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I still see these guys that are calling for a market crash this year. Most of them have been saying that the last few years. I wonder if they just predict that until it happens.

What is the difference between an economist's and a weatherman's predictions?

The weatherman's predictions are accurate more often.

quote:

Originally posted by LS1 GTO:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I still see these guys that are calling for a market crash this year. Most of them have been saying that the last few years. I wonder if they just predict that until it happens.

What is the difference between an economist's and a weatherman's predictions?

The weatherman's predictions are accurate more often.

Good one.

My Hycroft Mining (HYMC) is up 803% right now. Hopefully this continues upward, as they haven't even begun to pull out of the ground the gold and silver they have found.

quote:

Originally posted by L90814:
My Hycroft Mining (HYMC) is up 803% right now. Hopefully this continues upward, as they haven't even begun to pull out of the ground the gold and silver they have found.

Looks like you got in at the right time, now it’s almost half of all time highs so I will refrain from buying.

I bought Clorox, Campbells Soup and Conagra, all dividend plays and all near 52 wk lows.

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How is your 401k doing?

Still slightly positive by about 2.75% YTD, through 3/5, though this week has taken a toll.
Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VIIIX) just went negative for the year, but a number of international and Emerging Markets Equity funds are still doing pretty well, YTD.

I haven't gotten into it, yet, but on the international side, I intend to get into Hood River International Opportunity Fund (HRIIX). It's a minimum of $2,500 to get in and is a little costly, as far as funds go, at 1.2%, and hasn't existed for long. YTD it's at 17.85% and 1YR at 84.09%, and 3YR at 36.89%.

Taking a little beating from the Iran conflict. I won't be moving stuff around. Retirement is literally 8 weeks out

quote:

Originally posted by scratchy:
Taking a little beating from the Iran conflict. I won't be moving stuff around. Retirement is literally 8 weeks out

I’m always leery about that. I’ve been a home based FFL for 15 years now. My very first customer was a liberal retired college professor who was anti NRA. He was actually a good guy to talk with. He could only come to pick up his firearms on certain days. He told me that his wife and he shared one car. He was in the market in 2008 when it crashed and he would never recover from what he lost during that crash. He had to take withdrawals to live off of. I suppose he was in aggressively assuming he would continue to make gains.

I’m going to try and not make that mistake if I can avoid it.

+15.1% YTD in the IRA. +13.3% in the brokerage. I don't expect that to continue through the rest of the year, as I expect a general decline in the stock market.

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+15.1% YTD in the IRA.

Any details? That's some good stock selection. Very few funds are up +15.1% YTD.

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Originally posted by chellim1:

Any details? That's some good stock selection. Very few funds are up +15.1% YTD.

In no particular order, these are my IRA holdings:

AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd
NEM Newmont Corp
INFL Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF
ISCG iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF
PHYS Sprott Physical Gold ETF
PSLV Sprott Physical Silver ETF
SGDJ Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF
SGDM Sprott Gold Miners ETF
SKYY First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF
XSMO Invesco S&P Small-Cap Momentum ETF
XSVM Invesco S&P Small-Cap Value with Momentum ETF
SWLVX Schwab US Large-Cap Value Index Mutual Fund
SNVXX Schwab Government Money Market (approx 3.5-4% for parking some cash)

In my brokerage and Roth accounts I hold a very different mix, including large cap, growth, value, t-bills, etc to get diversification across the entirety of the portfolio.

Being heavy into Gold/Silver/Mining is the big driver there.

The stock market overall is down ~1.5% YTD.

But Gold is up ~19% YTD and Silver is up ~11% YTD.

And a quick perusal of those gold mining stocks/ETFs show they are similarly up big, with AEM up ~29% YTD, NEM up ~15% YTD, SGDJ up ~20% YTD, and SGDM up ~21% YTD.

Just keep in mind that this doesn't mean you should rush out and liquidate your stock portfolio to go heavy into Gold/Silver/Miners instead... Gold/Silver have just been experiencing a huge boom for the past two years, after decades of middling performance. So while it's nice to be in precious metals right now during this short span, stocks have historically greatly outperformed precious metals over the long run.

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Being heavy into Gold/Silver/Mining is the big driver there.
.
.
So while it's nice to be in precious metals right now during this short span, stocks have historically greatly outperformed precious metals over the long run.

Oh yeah!

Gold and silver started as 10% total of my portfolio. Then they ran waaay up. Along the way I picked up the mining stocks to front run those a bit. Then some judicious swing trading in silver. I sold a good bunch of silver at $90 as it is now clearly in a bear flag situation in the short term. If it breaks support below $70 I'll be buying back that which I sold at $90. I am bullish long term in both silver and gold.

My philosophy is let the winners ride, but don't ride them back down after they peak. For now, they ride. When it looks like they are reaching the expected highs, I'll pare back to about 10% in each metal. The miners are purely swing trades on timelines less than a year. They aren't part of the long term holdings plan.

I rebalance everything annually, but this crazy momentum ride with the metals has me staying with them for a while. There is no obvious alternative place to put the $$ if I sell out of the metals right now.

quote:

Gold and silver started as 10% total of my portfolio. Then they ran waaay up. Along the way I picked up the mining stocks to front run those a bit. Then some judicious swing trading in silver...

Nice!