Pro-
Yeah, your house is probably worth a lot more money than it was a few years ago.

Con-
So is every other house you're going to be looking at.

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:
I'll go against the mainstream here and say that I believe we are in a housing bubble, just without the subprime loans.

The economy simply doesn't support housing prices at this time and I think it'll take a big drop in the near future, say within the next year or so.

I agree in general, and believe my market areas will largely experience a reset or re-alignment in prices. I would argue that we're there already in my market, true inflation right now is likely 12-15%, and just getting started.

Slightly different take on what you've said.

Mortgage - a small mortgage in today's rates would be relatively small compared to higher rates. You have the option of paying it down faster.

Family - you'll be near to family and assistance should you need it.

Medical - again, you'll have someone nearby should you require it.

Living from luggage - you might see if there is a short-term or month-to-month rental nearby to let you settle a bit more than just living from your luggage between old and new living space.

You noted having to have surveyors out - if it is for the old property, it needs to be done anyway. If for the new property, it wouldn't hurt to have documentation in hand earlier to ease the tasks.

You've noted that your existing property is older - is it likely to need any good amount of repairs or updates in the next few years? You might not want to face those a few years down the road. Your existing property is also multi-level based on what you've noted.

I'm just trying to open the ideas - hoping that it will give you a better basis to make your decisions.

Best of luck.

To tag onto what SigSac is saying. You are not getting any younger.

Prices are as high as they are going to get. The cost of the new place is probably stable. Meaning it has not gone up. Other than the things needing done and the modular home.

You should give yourself a hard time line. Like a couple of weeks and decide. If you are going to move ahead. Get a new realtor and tell them to get a buyer to sign on the dotted line, like yesterday.

In this market you should have several offers with in the first week of the listing going live. Maybe in first few days.

quote:

Originally posted by SIG4EVA:
This isn't a housing bubble. People aren't getting subprime loans. The demand is much higher than supply since new builds dropped off the last few years. There are a ton of people from liberal states moving to the South with cash. Also, if you sell and rent, rent is sky rocketing just the same. You will break even but may end up with worse than you already have.

The very definition of a bubble is a fast rise in an asset's price followed by a contraction. In other words, it doesn't require a subprime loan component.

Might not be a bubble in your area, but it sure looks like one in my area. We have two things going on in the Houston Metropolitan area:

Massive layoffs and paycuts from COVID in oil & gas sector. Houston is oil & gas capital of the Western Hemisphere, and the sector had already been in a downturn since 2014.

Californians with zero marketable oil & gas skills moving into Houston and bidding up the price on houses. The house may be cheap compared to what they're used to, but 5 figure property tax bills and the inability to get a good job in an area with underpaid and unemployed people with actual marketable oil & gas skills.

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Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

As far as relocating the first piece of the puzzle depends on the sale of your present property, has there been much interest?

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
To tag onto what SigSac is saying. You are not getting any younger.

Prices are as high as they are going to get. The cost of the new place is probably stable. Meaning it has not gone up. Other than the things needing done and the modular home.

You should give yourself a hard time line. Like a couple of weeks and decide. If you are going to move ahead. Get a new realtor and tell them to get a buyer to sign on the dotted line, like yesterday.

In this market you should have several offers with in the first week of the listing going live. Maybe in first few days.

The decision has been made and the listing pulled. The place was on the market just short of a month with one viewing and no offers. I'm not sure where that falls on the "interest scale" but that wasn't the motivator anyway. I'm assuming we're too rural for the "red hot market" to apply.

What drove the decision to cancel the sale was the skyrocketing cost of materials and the fact that even this early in what I expect to be a months- (or years-) long spiral, we were having to downgrade our expectations for the new place. Not about to give up what we have just to go through all the hassle and wind up with less.

There are a lot of things that affect this decision for anyone. My lovely wife and I have a small farm in S/W Illinois. I am in my mid 70's. She is in her early 60's. Southern Illinois is not like the Chicago area. Taxes on our small farm are reasonable. The FOID card thing in Illinois is stupid but not really a big deal. Concealed carry is available. We get a little income from the farm. I can shoot a 30:06 or anything else legally without leaving the property. My wife has some family not too far away. I have no family left. Like you I tinker with engines and small equipment. Health care in this area is pretty good. We are known in the community from our previous professions. I think about Kentucky or Tennessee sometimes but we would know nobody and have no connections. Being pack rats we would have a lot of "stuff" to move. Major life decisions are difficult and the older you get the tougher they are. I did put heat in our attached garage to allow some work opportunity in the winter. I installed un-vented propane and would do that differently if I could do it over. Good luck in anything you decide. (I did read all responses and good points are made) Upgrading your existing workspace with heat and light could be considered and wouldn't be terribly expensive if you didn't increase the size. A 24 x 36 foot building equipped would probably cost $40,000.

Housing market here in Florida is wild. We have friends who sold their house for a great profit but can't get their new house built due to materials and labor shortages so they are living in an RV for the duration. They are young with young kids and can wait it out but us old folks are staying put.

We have a nice place on 5 tucked away acres. It’s convenient to work, school & the rest. I would never sell to move locally, don’t want to even look at prices, besides the hassle factor of moving.

The only way I’m selling is an out of State move, which I consider occasionally. For at least a few more working years, not going anywhere.

quote:

Originally posted by Gene Hillman:
Upgrading your existing workspace with heat and light could be considered and wouldn't be terribly expensive if you didn't increase the size. A 24 x 36 foot building equipped would probably cost $40,000.

I have an existing 20x24 building I can repurpose by insulating, finishing the inside and replacing the sliding barn door with a double entry door. Just got back from pricing things, and it looks like I could do it for right around $5000 including having the local utility install a pole and dropping a 100 amp service to it. Probably the way I'm going to go.

quote:

Originally posted by SIG4EVA:
This isn't a housing bubble.

I respectfully disagree. Interest rates are at historic lows. Realtors sell homes based on how much people can afford paying monthly. When interest rates drop realtors keep payments the same by increasing property values. When interest rates increase and people can't afford higher monthly payments guess what drops... property value.

Middle America is getting squeezed. Increased taxes, costs of living, inflation, student loan debt, tech replacing jobs, lack of pay increases/promotions, etc. Dual incomes are a must for most families to survive.

When interest rates increase the stock market and real estate will take a hit. Politicians have kicked the can down the road because no one wants to be the one who tanked your 401k or dropped your home's value lower than your mortgage but that day is coming.

Remember the last time the banks were too big to fail? Big daddy government couldn't wait to bail them out but do you remember what it was like for us regular people to get a loan? Couldn't get one. I had $25k lines of credit that were current and paid up in full that were cancelled overnight for no other reason than "they were reducing their risk profile." Mind you I had an 760+ FICO with not a single blemish or late payment.

If I were old enough to qualify for a reverse mortgage (I got a long ways to go) I'd leverage my paid off property to the gills and sit on that cash for when the markets crash. Why not? I'll always be able to live in that house and I don't have to ask permission just to be denied my equity when I want to capitalize on what's on the horizon.

In 2008 I had clients with paid off properties who couldn't get a loan using their properties as collateral because the banks puckered up. If you think you own the equity in your home think again. To access that equity you are either at the mercy of the bank or have to sell based on current market valuation. I'd gladly take the bank's money at low interest rates and sit on it until opportunities present vs. being locked out while those with cash are able to capitalize.

Hil, that is an interesting take. And probably a wise idea. But most are not going to take that risk. The pay off could be healthy. But again what you are suggesting is sort of outside the box. I do not think I could do it, or convince my other half we should do it.

PHPaul, sounds like a good plan. For generations people did just what you are planning to do.
Attempting something different in trying and uncertain times could be a dicey proposition and may not pan out very well. So I understand completely.

quote:

Originally posted by Flash-LB:
I'll go against the mainstream here and say that I believe we are in a housing bubble, just without the subprime loans.

The economy simply doesn't support housing prices at this time and I think it'll take a big drop in the near future, say within the next year or so.

I’m not sure if we are in a housing bubble, an everything bubble, or no bubble at all. However, I don’t feel particularly comfortable about the prospect for smooth, stable economic growth in the near to medium future. I would not be in any rush to take on any debt or exchange any real property for paper right now…

I think Hil has it right on the bubble. I have a step son that is selling his home in Savannah. He's owned for 5 years and is making out. He's moving to Indy and I am extremely concerned about his family buying a home immediately but that is what they will do. Not a big deal if they would stay there but I think they will be nomadic and want to hit the road again in 5-10 years. Can't do that if you're upside down.

I’ve been watching this guy on YouTube for the last few months. He’s in Vermont and builds a lot of garages and such. He’s done a few videos lately on the crazy rising price of lumber. Click on his channel name and then videos, you'll see a list of his videos. He's been doing videos on the rising cost of materials for some time now. Check him out.

If you want a shop built at your current place he might be a good way to go. Not sure how far he is from East Overshoe.

Here’s his latest:


.

Our area has a housing shortage and it is driving up prices in every price range of homes/condos. This started back in 2007 or so when spec home builders went bankrupt and new construction stopped for over 10 years...been a real estate broker for over 20 years and very few people saw this coming until last year when all of the sudden there were WAY more buyers than properties for sale.

The biggest difference in this market compared to the previous "Bubble" is that people can actually afford the home they are buying...no stated income/100% loans and many purchases are not contingent on financing or appraisal. Sales in our area topped 1 billion dollars for the first time ever last year and will top that record this year if there are enough properties for sale.
New construction Spec homes/condos didn't really see a huge increase in numbers until midway last year and builders/developers have been playing catchup since.

With the low inventory last and this year, were were seeing many people go with a custom home build job and now many builders are booked up until mid 2022 and won't even bid a new home build. Now we are seeing huge spikes in construction costs and some of the builder spec homes have stopped until material costs come down and who knows how long that will take.
I don't claim to be the smartest Realtor in our area but will say that it is going to take years of new construction before there is enough inventory to meet anywhere close to the demand.....unless we have another worldwide even that crashes down.

My niece is a agent in Florida. The bubble isn't bursting anytime soon. There is a massive flood of buyers coming from California, Portland and Seattle with cash in hand. They are going everywhere, especially DFW.

No one thought the other two (or has it been 3?) housing bubbles I’ve lived through would crash either.

The cause won’t be the same as the previous ones, the government will find a new way to crash the housing market.