SIGforum
Yet further evidence that you should ignore political polling data

This topic can be found at:
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/320601935/m/4210086225

October 31, 2026, 08:24 AM
SpinZone
Yet further evidence that you should ignore political polling data
There are 3 types of polling:

Data based polls - where you take some form of data and spin it to support whatever results serve your purpose.

Predictive polls - where you just make up data to support what you think will happen.

Wishful polls - where you just make up results without any data to support what you want to happen.


Personally, I think the purpose of polls is simply to give the liberal media something to report so the right can see how pointless it is to bother voting and get people on the right to stay home.



“We truly live in a wondrous age of stupid.” - 83v45magna

"I think it's important that people understand free speech doesn't mean free from consequences societally or politically or culturally."
-Pranjit Kalita, founder and CIO of Birkoa Capital Management

October 31, 2026, 04:31 PM
parabellum
This kind of stuff is ridiculous.

https://x.com/1bigJawBone/status/2116614372915138693


October 31, 2026, 06:08 PM
oldbill123
quote:
Originally posted by sig sailor:
How many times do we have to go through this until people begin to realize that the ONLY thing that matters in an election is the vote count? A poll is only good for strippers to dance on.
Rod

The only thing that matters is who counts the vote
October 31, 2026, 09:01 PM
oddball
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
This kind of stuff is ridiculous.

It's almost a given that Greg Abbott will be re elected, he is still a very popular governor. But yeah, it's crazy that certain people believe that Republicans in Texas will vote for MAGA conservative Greg Abbott for governor, Dan Patrick for Lt Governor, and all down the ballot, but somehow vote for a tranny loving commie Democrat like Talarico for U.S. Senate. And ignore the fact that Paxton, like Abbott and Patrick, has been winning statewide elections since 2018, Talarico nada.

Gaslighting is all the Democrats have in the most coveted race in the country right now. Ridiculous indeed.



"I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965
October 31, 2026, 09:29 PM
XinTX
Yeah. A lot of polls in Texas said Cornholio would beat Paxton by anywhere from 2 to 5 points. Paxton won and it was almost 2 to 1. Cornholio and Thune spent over $100 million in the primary to defeat Paxton.

The candidates have polls that are accurate. I haven't seen Paxton spending a lot on ads. I think it's because he knows he doesn't need to. I can't see Trannyfreako winning statewide in Texas. He'll probably carry Austin by a good margin. But you know what they say about Austin. The best thing about Austin is it's just 15 minutes from Texas.


_______________________
“The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.” Ayn Rand

“If we relinquish our rights because of fear, what is it exactly, then, we are fighting for?” Sen. Rand Paul
October 31, 2026, 10:59 PM
MikeinNC
I’ve checked my county and the election results only show who has voted, the actual tally is not added or revealed until Election Day. So unless they are searching databases for who is registers as a dem or a republican and comparing that to who voted, they have no idea what the numbers are




“You may beat me, but you will never win.” sigmonkey-2020

“ in my opinion, anything that we can do to trigger a potential aneurysm in a leftist is a good thing and worth doing” nhtagmember 2025
November 01, 2026, 09:15 AM
parabellum
Yeah, perfectly normal. Happens all the time. Roll Eyes

https://x.com/NewsHour/status/2116591535072416038


November 01, 2026, 10:35 AM
divil
“… was behin(D) hours earlier, has now pulle(D) ahea(D) …”

Is how that pbs pro voter frau(D) message ought to look…
November 01, 2026, 11:20 AM
chellim1
quote:
Personally, I think the purpose of polls is simply to give the liberal media something to report so the right can see how pointless it is to bother voting and get people on the right to stay home.

Yeah... they use them to dispirit conservative voters.

In Michigan, Rasmussen Reports has El-Sayed +5
I find that hard to believe.


Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed is Angered Because Pete Hegseth’s Family Supported Him

It would appear that Michigan Senate candidate Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed has just outlined why he is so filled with anger toward white people. During a rather bizarre rant against Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, El-Sayed attempts to ridicule Hegseth by comparing the level of support they both received during childhood.

As noted by Chuck Ross, “Hegseth was an all-state point guard in high school in Minnesota, set various school records. He played college ball and got some floor time in the 2001 NCAA tournament. El-Sayed played club lacrosse at Michigan.”

Now WATCH:



Nicki Minaj outlines the psychology accurately: “If you listen carefully, it’s a misplaced anger at his own parents for not making him feel worthy that turned into raging jealousy of other children who had parents that lifted them up and poured into them. He’s projected all of that onto white people. He needs to mend his heart before thinking about running for any office. White ppl haven’t hurt him. He knows exactly who did. Notice how he doesn’t get the satisfaction he was craving when the interviewer simply anchors himself & doesn’t validate that experience.”

https://theconservativetreehou...ted-him/#more-288431



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
November 01, 2026, 12:02 PM
bigwagon
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Yeah, perfectly normal. Happens all the time. Roll Eyes

It's been happening for so long in the City/County of Milwaukee that it's been a running joke around here for decades.
November 01, 2026, 12:53 PM
prj
In Milwaukee and elsewhere, the State Legislature wouldn't change the law to allow counting of mail in and absentee ballots prior to Election Day. This leaves a massive number of ballots to count in short order, with a large impact on totals in the State. Thus, the "ballot dump".

You'd know that if you'd spent 30 seconds looking into it. Have to assume you haven't.

The counting, handled at Central Count, the Italian Community Center this year, is open to the public. Go observe.
November 01, 2026, 01:31 PM
12131
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
This kind of stuff is ridiculous.

https://x.com/1bigJawBone/status/2116614372915138693

Yeah, it's total garbage from Polymarket. It's all meaningless buying and selling speculations. As for political polls in general, they're all agenda driven manipulations and have zero credence with me. Why most people haven't learned since 2016 is a real puzzler.


Q






November 01, 2026, 01:34 PM
bigwagon
quote:
Originally posted by prj:
In Milwaukee and elsewhere, the State Legislature wouldn't change the law to allow counting of mail in and absentee ballots prior to Election Day. This leaves a massive number of ballots to count in short order, with a large impact on totals in the State. Thus, the "ballot dump".

You'd know that if you'd spent 30 seconds looking into it. Have to assume you haven't.

The counting, handled at Central Count, the Italian Community Center this year, is open to the public. Go observe.

You don't have to "assume" anything. My comment stands about the fact that late night reversals in election results have been happening for decades in this state, regardless of the purported reason why or their presumed legitimacy.
November 04, 2026, 07:18 AM
imfrogman
Looks like the polls were more right than wrong this time.


NRA Life Member
November 04, 2026, 08:02 AM
nhracecraft
I believe the polls 'worked' in that analysis of the election will reveal the largest factor was NOT that voters preferred Democrats, but rather that Republicans gave up, stayed home and didn't vote! Mad

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” ― H.L. Mencken


____________________________________________________________

If Some is Good, and More is Better.....then Too Much, is Just Enough !!
Trump 47....Making America Great Again!
"May Almighty God bless the United States of America" - parabellum 7/26/20
Live Free or Die!
November 04, 2026, 09:25 AM
Flashlightboy
quote:
Originally posted by nhracecraft:
I believe the polls 'worked' in that analysis of the election will reveal the largest factor was NOT that voters preferred Democrats, but rather that Republicans gave up, stayed home and didn't vote! Mad

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” ― H.L. Mencken


Republicans didnt learn shit from the 2018 election, and they very much "earned" the ass kicking they took last night. They know how to complain a lot but can't actually govern as a collective.

I'm realizing the the 2024 election wasn't so much as the nation wanting or begging for Trump as it was a repudiation of Harris.
November 04, 2026, 10:16 AM
bdylan
The polling was about 2% off in favor of Republicans! I assumed the progressive pollsters were trying to suppress Republican votes while keeping it close to the actual results. Instead, it looks like they were making sure they did not underrepresent Republicans this cycle.
November 04, 2026, 08:25 PM
FP2000H
quote:
Originally posted by oddball:
The polling in Texas in regards to the U.S. Senate race is a collosal joke. Intelligent people know that the ridiculous numbers are an attempt to try to discourage, deflate Republican voters from going to the polls to vote.


I’d say the Republicans accomplished that for me without any help from the polls. No way was I going to vote for Ken Paxton. I sat this one out. America spoke when it elected Trump in 2024. Well, it just spoke again that it didn’t like the job he and his crew were doing. Anyone who was honest could see this was coming.


_______________

If anyone has any factory P239 .357 SIG +1 mag extensions, I need (5) of them. Email in profile thx!
November 04, 2026, 09:02 PM
nhracecraft
^^ Wow, you say that like you're proud of it...Well at least now we know you're NOT on our side! I'd hate to think you were, only to get shot in the back when we thought you had our backs! Roll Eyes


____________________________________________________________

If Some is Good, and More is Better.....then Too Much, is Just Enough !!
Trump 47....Making America Great Again!
"May Almighty God bless the United States of America" - parabellum 7/26/20
Live Free or Die!
November 04, 2026, 09:10 PM
egregore
quote:
I sat this one out.

Then you forfeit any right to complain.