I was perusing the National Saftey Council's website for a work project and ran upon the page below outlining one's lifetime odds of dying. They show the odds of dying via "gun assault" at 1 in 285. I know things are bad in some areas but really!? I don't believe that BS for one second. Maybe these odds are strictly relating to Chicago, Detroit, and DC metro areas but not the entire nation. Some of the other non-health related stats suicide (1 in 91) and motor vehicle crash (1 in 102) seem to be inflated as well.
Without researching the numbers, I recall that 15,000 people are killed by guns a year (not including about the same number by suicide). Dividing that number by 300,000,000 (approx. population) gives a yearly chance of 0.00005. Multiply that by 70 = 0.0035, or 1 in 286.
Of course many people die by guns that aren’t “assaults.” A significant number are accidents, and even though they’re listed separately, I’m not sure how that fits.
Also, it ignores the fact that the figures are based on national averages. Being a certain race, a certain age, and living in certain areas can either increase one’s chances of being killed by gunfire, or reduce it. Someone who doesn’t ride a bicycle ever has very little chance of being killed while riding a bicycle.
► 6.4/93.6
“Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something.” — Plato
March 21, 2018, 12:19 PM
texassierra
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund: Without researching the numbers, I recall that 15,000 people are killed by guns a year (not including about the same number by suicide). Dividing that number by 300,000,000 (approx. population) gives a yearly chance of 0.00005. Multiply that by 70 = 0.0035, or 1 in 286.
Of course many people die by guns that aren’t “assaults.” A significant number are accidents.
There's separate listings for gun assault, suicide, and accidental gun discharges. If they were all combined I'd be likely to believe the 1 in 285 statistic.
NRA Life Patron
March 21, 2018, 12:23 PM
TMats
quote:
Originally posted by Georgeair: I'll take "What is 100%" for $1,000, Alex.
Hope it's the Daily Double!
_______________________________________________________ despite them
March 21, 2018, 12:23 PM
rusbro
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund: Without researching the numbers, I recall that 15,000 people are killed by guns a year (not including about the same number by suicide). Dividing that number by 300,000,000 (approx. population) gives a yearly chance of 0.00005. Multiply that by 70 = 0.0035, or 1 in 286.
Of course many people die by guns that aren’t “assaults.” A significant number are accidents.
Some number of those 15,000 were justifiably killed with a gun, and some number of those killed accidentally were strait-up idiots, and some number lived in shit-hole areas. The odds of one in 286 don't apply to every individual as some are "exposed" to different/more risk factors.
March 21, 2018, 12:27 PM
BamaJeepster
From the link:
Source: National Safety Council estimates based on data from National Center for Health Statistics—Mortality Data for 2015, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Population and life expectancy data are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Deaths are classified on the basis of the Tenth Revision of the World Health Organization’s “The International Classification of Diseases” (ICD). Numbers following titles refer to External Cause of Morbidity and Mortality classifications in ICD-10.
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” - John Adams
March 21, 2018, 12:29 PM
sigfreund
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund: Also, it ignores the fact that the figures are based on national averages. Being a certain race, a certain age, and living in certain areas can either increase one’s chances of being killed by gunfire, or reduce it. Someone who doesn’t ride a bicycle ever has very little chance of being killed while riding a bicycle.
► 6.4/93.6
“Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something.” — Plato
March 21, 2018, 12:41 PM
Jimbo54
quote:
Originally posted by smschulz: What about "Natural Causes"?
The top three would be considered natural causes. I'm surprised that stroke isn't listed.
Jim
________________________
"If you can't be a good example, then you'll have to be a horrible warning" -Catherine Aird
March 21, 2018, 12:43 PM
Rey HRH
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund: Without researching the numbers, I recall that 15,000 people are killed by guns a year (not including about the same number by suicide). Dividing that number by 300,000,000 (approx. population) gives a yearly chance of 0.00005. Multiply that by 70 = 0.0035, or 1 in 286.
Of course many people die by guns that aren’t “assaults.” A significant number are accidents, and even though they’re listed separately, I’m not sure how that fits.
Why multiply by 70?
"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
March 21, 2018, 12:58 PM
Aeteocles
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund: Without researching the numbers, I recall that 15,000 people are killed by guns a year (not including about the same number by suicide). Dividing that number by 300,000,000 (approx. population) gives a yearly chance of 0.00005. Multiply that by 70 = 0.0035, or 1 in 286.
Of course many people die by guns that aren’t “assaults.” A significant number are accidents, and even though they’re listed separately, I’m not sure how that fits.
Why multiply by 70?
"Lifetime" odds. 70 years in a life, on average.
March 21, 2018, 12:59 PM
cparktd
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund: Without researching the numbers, I recall that 15,000 people are killed by guns a year (not including about the same number by suicide). Dividing that number by 300,000,000 (approx. population) gives a yearly chance of 0.00005. Multiply that by 70 = 0.0035, or 1 in 286.
Of course many people die by guns that aren’t “assaults.” A significant number are accidents, and even though they’re listed separately, I’m not sure how that fits.
Why multiply by 70?
After figuring the odds per YEAR he multiplied that by 70 YEARS for an estimated lifetime risk.
If it ain't woke... don't fix it.
March 21, 2018, 01:01 PM
arfmel
If you’re born to hang, you’ll never drown.
March 21, 2018, 01:12 PM
oldRoger
quote:
Someone who doesn’t ride a bicycle ever has very little chance of being killed while riding a bicycle.
Exactly---if you are a black male street gang member under 35 and live in certain areas of Chicago, Baltimore, or St. Louis, your odds of being killed or injured in a "Gun" assault are much higher than those quoted and may approach 1:1, for the rest of us the odds are much lower. In fact for most of us, the odds are vanishingly slim. The statistics are not a reason for complacency and I do carry just as I have fire insurance on my house.
March 21, 2018, 01:13 PM
darthfuster
Where's 'clothes shopping with spouse'?
You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier
March 21, 2018, 01:22 PM
nighthawk
How about because of 2 chicks at the same time ?
"Hold my beer.....Watch this".
March 21, 2018, 01:27 PM
wcb6092
1 in 109 will die of an opioid overdose.
_________________________ "Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." Mark Twain
March 21, 2018, 01:28 PM
Rey HRH
quote:
Originally posted by Aeteocles:
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund: Without researching the numbers, I recall that 15,000 people are killed by guns a year (not including about the same number by suicide). Dividing that number by 300,000,000 (approx. population) gives a yearly chance of 0.00005. Multiply that by 70 = 0.0035, or 1 in 286.
Of course many people die by guns that aren’t “assaults.” A significant number are accidents, and even though they’re listed separately, I’m not sure how that fits.
Why multiply by 70?
"Lifetime" odds. 70 years in a life, on average.
I'll buy how he got the math then and I'm assuming that's how the Safety Chart got the numbers too.
But I'm not buying that method. My argument isn't with Sigfreund as he's just the one who reverse engineered the numbers. I just don't think the numbers are right even at just face value.
I don't have the mathematical proof, maybe somebody else does.
"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
March 21, 2018, 01:29 PM
newtoSig765
quote:
Originally posted by darthfuster: Where's 'clothes shopping with spouse'?
It's covered. Either "Heart Attack" or "Suicide", take your pick.
I knew a guy who died of a stroke while driving his wife somewhere. So far as I know, she was never charged.
-------------------------- Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. -- H L Mencken
I always prefer reality when I can figure out what it is. -- JALLEN 10/18/18
