SIGforum
US debt. Is it sustainable?

This topic can be found at:
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/320601935/m/3980052974

November 13, 2023, 11:32 AM
Rey HRH
US debt. Is it sustainable?
It depends on your definition of sustainable and by whom.

It's definitely sustainable by the government as it simply prints more money to pay the debt.

It's not sustainable by the American people as their currency is continually devalued.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
November 15, 2023, 07:58 AM
chellim1
Doug Casey on the Imminent Bankruptcy of the US Government

International Man: Everyone knows that the US government has been bankrupt for many years. But we thought it might be instructive to see its current cash-flow situation.

The US government’s budget is the biggest in the history of the world and is growing at an uncontrollable rate.

Below is a chart of the budget for the most recent fiscal year, which had a deficit of nearly $1.7 trillion.



Before we get into the specific items in the budget, what is your take on the Big Picture for the US budget?

Doug Casey: The biggest expenditure for the US government are so-called entitlements. It’s strange how the word “entitlements” has been legitimized. Are people really entitled to the government paying for their health, retirement, and welfare? In a moral society, the answer is: No. Entitlements destroy personal responsibility, legitimize theft, destroy wealth, and create antagonisms.

The fact is that once people have an “entitlement,” they come to rely on it, and you can’t easily take it away. The Chinese call that breaking somebody’s rice bowl. In the case of the American welfare state, it’s more a question of breaking a whipped dog’s doggy bowl. It’s a shame because many have come to rely on their mother, the State, not entirely through their own fault. The US has become pervasively corrupt.

The World Economic Forum (WEF)—a pox upon them—isn’t entirely incorrect when it arrogantly calls most people “useless mouths.” An increasing number produce absolutely nothing but only consume at the expense of others. Courtesy of the State.

There’s little doubt in my mind that the government’s expenses are going way up as people demand more. While receipts go down as the Greater Depression deepens. Which it will, as the economy is burdened by evermore taxes, regulations, and currency debasement. That’s on top of the gigantic debt the government and country are buried under.

The government reminds me of a poker player on tilt, betting more and more crazily in hope of magic or luck to bail him out. It always ends badly.

We’ve watched this progression accelerate since at least the 1960’s—a slow motion train wreck. But the inevitable has finally turned into the imminent.

International Man: What are your thoughts on Social Security, Health, and Medicare?

With an aging population, it seems politically impossible to make any meaningful cuts here. On the contrary, spending in these areas is likely to explode.

Doug Casey: They should be abolished. I’ve said this many times before, but it bears repeating as often as possible because everybody forgets the most basic of the basics. Namely, the government, as an instrument of force, should be limited to protecting people from physical force. And nothing else.

That implies a police system to defend people from force within, a military to defend against foreign aggressors, and a court system to allow people to adjudicate disputes without resorting to force. I’d further argue that those three things are so important to the conduct of a civil society that they shouldn’t be left to the kind of people who inevitably gravitate towards government. But that’s a different subject.

Looking at these three things you mentioned in particular, they’re complete disasters. They’re fiscally unsound, will bankrupt the US government, and, therefore, bankrupt the country itself, especially with an aging population.

Social Security seemed like a good idea at the time so that poor people wouldn’t be left totally without an income in old age. But the fact is that Social Security is a classic Ponzi scheme. Its taxes have gone from a trivial percentage to 12.4%.

It’s so high that people are on the bottom end of society, who it’s meant to help, are precluded from saving on their own. Social Security is both a practical and moral disaster.

As for Medicare, how is it your problem if another has failed to take care of his body? Your body is your primary possession. Should it also be your problem if somebody fails to take care of his car? Should the State fix all your property?

Should the government have anything to do with health? No. It’s strictly a matter of personal responsibility. Of course, if the State believes it owns you, like a milk cow, the cattle can expect food to show up, as will medicine if they get sick.

Government entitlement schemes encourage everyone to try to live at the expense of his neighbors. They’re intrinsically dehumanizing, corrupting, and degrading. They’re a bad deal all around.

International Man: With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, “National Defense” seems unlikely to be cut.

Instead, so-called defense spending is all but certain to increase.

What is your take?

Doug Casey: The United States’ “defense” spending exceeds that of the next 10 nations combined, including Russia and China. Most of that spending goes into the maw of five major defense companies. A decade or two ago, there used to be 30 or 40 defense companies. But they’ve now consolidated, the better to deal with Big Government.

They increasingly make only expensive high-tech weapons, which may prove totally useless in today’s environment. For instance, the US is currently suffering an invasion of feet people across the southern border—millions and millions of young males, of alien race, language, religion, and culture, in the last two years alone. We may yet wind up with a civil war in the US, on top of several insane foreign wars.

These high-tech weapons, in the process of bankrupting the US and enriching the defense establishment, will prove largely useless. Meanwhile, military personnel are being gutted. It’s no secret that the services can’t recruit enough people to keep their numbers where they want them. That’s in good measure because ESG and DEI have been insinuated throughout the military like slow-acting poisons. The military is no longer a meritocracy. Now, it’s critical to be the right color and gender. George Patton would quit in disgust.

On top of all that, defense spending is a provocation to other countries. It’s like waving around a giant golden hammer. They’re correctly afraid that everything has started to look like a nail to the US.

International Man: The net interest expense on the national debt was $659 billion in FY 2023, which is sure to rise.

The US government needs to roll over a significant portion of its existing debt issued when interest rates were 0% in an environment of much higher and rising rates.

What are your thoughts on this item?

Doug Casey: Interest on the debt is the next big thing, in addition to entitlements and out-of-control “defense” spending.

They used to say, “Don’t worry about the national debt; we owe it to ourselves,” which was always ridiculous because some specific people always owed it to other specific people.

But the US can no longer generate adequate capital to fund the government’s debt. And I hasten to point out that the government is not “We the People.” The government is a separate entity, with its own interests, as distinct as General Motors.

In the recent past, the national debt has been financed not by Americans, but by foreigners. At this point, however, foreigners no longer want to own the debt of a bankrupt entity whose currency is nothing but a floating abstraction. The government can only finance its debt by selling it to its central bank, the Fed, which creates new dollars to buy the debt.

As the dollar inevitably loses value, interest rates will rise. That’s regardless of what the Fed does or doesn’t want. The market will demand higher interest rates to finance the debt. You don’t want to own bonds.

International Man: US government expenses seem to have nowhere to go but up.

Is there any chance the US government can reform and return to a sustainable basis?

If not, what are the implications?

Doug Casey: The US government is bankrupt. It’s not just the official $34 trillion. The real number is several times higher, considering contingent liabilities. It’s probably more like $100 trillion. This debt will never be repaid. The US government is like Wiley Coyote after he runs off a cliff.

In addition, the average American is deeply in debt—student loans, mortgage debt, credit card debt, auto debt, and much more. The country is in big trouble. Frankly, there’s no practical way out at this point except to officially declare bankruptcy.

I realize serious change is impossible since the situation is so out of control. But here are six things to imagine—for a start:

1. Allow the collapse of all bankrupt entities. No bailouts, subsidies, or guarantees for banks, insurers, corporations, or anything.

There will be plenty in the coming years. Bailout money is always wasted. Most of the real wealth now owned by the bankrupt entities will still exist.

It will simply change ownership. But that’s not nearly enough. At this point, it would be a half-measure, a 3-foot rope over a 12-foot gap. If you allow the collapse of unprofitable enterprises without changing the conditions that created the problem, recovery is going to be even harder. So…

2. Deregulate. Contrary to what almost everyone thinks, the main purpose of regulation is not to protect consumers but to entrench the current order. Regulation prevents new institutions from arising quickly and cheaply.

Does the Department of Agriculture really need 100,000 employees to regulate fewer than two million farms in the US? Abolish it.

Has the Department of Energy, created in 1977 to somehow solve a temporary crisis, done anything of value with its 110,000 employees and contractors and $32 billion annual budget? Abolish it.

How about the terminally corrupt Bureau of Indian Affairs, which has outlived whatever usefulness it might have had by 100 years. Abolish it.

The FTC, SEC, FCC, FAA, DOT, HHS, HUD, Labor, Commerce, and many more, serve little or no useful public purpose. Eliminate them, and the entire economy would blossom – except for the parasitical lobbying and legal trades. There are hundreds of agencies like these. Most aren’t just useless. They’re actively destructive.

3. Abolish the Fed. This is the actual engine of inflation. Money is just a medium of exchange and a store of value; you don’t need a central bank to have money. In fact, central banks are always destructive. They benefit only the cronies who get their money first.

What would we use as money? It doesn’t matter as long as it’s a commodity that can’t be created out of thin air. Gold is the obvious choice. Bitcoin may turn out to be excellent.

The whole idea of a central bank is a swindle. Massive bailouts and optional wars can’t be done without it.

4. Cut taxes by 50%… to start. The economy would boom. The money won’t be needed with all the agencies gone. Certainly not if the next two points are followed.

5. Default on the national debt. I realize this is a shocker unless you recall that the debt will never be paid anyway. Why should the next several generations have to pay for the stupidity of their parents?

A default sounds dishonorable—and it is in civil society. But government is different. It hasn’t been “We the People” for a long time; it’s now a self-dealing behemoth run by cronies. It’s like a building with a rotten foundation—better to bring it down with a controlled demolition than wait for it fall unpredictably.

Governments default all the time, though most defaults are subtle, through inflation. In an outright default, however, the only people who get hurt are those who lent money to an institution that can only repay them by stealing money from others. They should be punished.

6. Disentangle and disengage. The entanglements the US needs to escape prominently include the UN and NATO. Spending could easily be cut 50%. The US combat troops now in over 100 foreign countries can come home. They’re not “defending” anything but local collaborators while picking up bad habits and antagonizing the locals. Spending on the military and its sport wars significantly adds to the economy’s problems.

https://internationalman.com/a...f-the-us-government/



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
August 19, 2026, 08:41 AM
chellim1
OLD THREAD
Same old problem...

US Interest Bill Is Getting Worse As Yields Keep Rising

...close to one in three tax dollars will be used to pay interest by 2036.

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...e-yields-keep-rising

U.S. government debt yields are surging at a bad time. Here’s what’s behind the move

Key Points

Treasury yields are continuing to climb, and at a particularly bad time as higher rates worsen the impact of the nearly $40 trillion government debt load.

Longer-dated debt has been hit particularly hard by the recent leg up, pushing the 30-year bond yield close to its highest level since the early part of the 21st century. Other maturities also have risen, owing to a number of factors conspiring to raise financing costs.

Fixed income strategists ascribe the run that began in June to a number of variables: intensified concerns over a budget deficit that appears set to eclipse its 2025 level; inflation in an ominous holding pattern above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target despite moderating data over the past two months; and a rash of corporate debt issuance competing with Treasurys for investors’ favor.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/1...behind-the-move.html



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
August 19, 2026, 08:46 AM
fischtown7
$432 billion deficit in July! Eek That's only one month, pretty soon it's going to be 1 Trillion a month. Look out Zimbabwe and Weimar, here we come.
August 19, 2026, 08:57 AM
FenderBender
As of this post, we're at $39,999,660,000,000

We'll hit 40 trillion dollars this week.


_____________________________________________
Proverbs 3:31 "Envy thou not the oppressor, and choose none of his ways."
August 19, 2026, 09:01 AM
fischtown7
quote:
Originally posted by FenderBender:
As of this post, we're at $39,999,660,000,000

We'll hit 40 trillion dollars this week.


Was reading we should hit 50 trillion by June 2029, wanna bet we hit it sooner?

Just saw that the Treasury is doing a major buyback to lower the long term bond yields this morning. That means they are printing money or creating it out of thin air to get the interest rates down, result devaluing dollar which can also result in higher inflation. It's a serious Ponzi scheme if I ever saw one.

Gold and silver are up accordingly and exchange rate on dollar is down.
August 19, 2026, 12:21 PM
chellim1
Here Comes QE Lite: Yields, Dollar Tumble, Gold Spikes After Treasury Unexpectedly Doubles Size Of Long-End Treasury Buybacks

Over the past several years, one of the more amusing debates gripping the market's Fed-watchers was whether the Fed's treasury buyback auctions were a form of soft QE, with this website consistently arguing that - contrary to what washed out ex-Bridgewater traders with a newsletter to sell may tell you - Treasury buybacks were just that when it comes to what matters such as market reaction, to wit:

https://x.com/zerohedge/status...unespectedly-doubles



And moments ago, Scott Bessent finally resolved the debate when, with 30Y yields at 20 year highs and threatening to blow out higher, the US Treasury shocked markets, sparked a meltdown in yields and surge in equity futures and gold when it announced at 8:30am that they will be "increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector). The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation."

This change will be effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026). The releases noted that the Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026, in other words it has the benefit of 3 months of "NOT QE" without having to even specify its thinking.

According to the statement, "this increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations."

Translation: Bessent panicked and the justification that there is no liquidity is just a strawman, with the Treasury now freaking out that the demand for AI paper is crowding out demand for Treasuries as we have been warning for the past several weeks, and as we predicted a week ago when looking at the blowing out Treasury skew, "Bessent will be busy.:"

It took just one week for him to show just how busy he would be.

The market reaction was instant and violent, with 30y yields down 6bps in an instant on the headlines, having been down 2bp prior, This brings Wednesday's yield decline to 8bp total

US 2s30s is 7bp flatter on the day and 10s30s 2bp flatter.

Naturally, with Bessent panicking, stock futures surged...

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...unespectedly-doubles



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
August 19, 2026, 03:48 PM
Carpentermaass84
Democrats have spent us into oblivion ever since Reagan. No politician wants to commit career suicide by openly opposing all entitlement spending so nothing will be done to address the debt.
August 19, 2026, 04:00 PM
fischtown7
Just like the Trump accounts for Children is just another form of QE to funnel money into the markets that taxpayers are liable for. Only option left is for the government to subsidize the markets with the hope that they grow fast enough to generate tax revenue to cover the debts incurred, problem is, it does not work mathematically. We will have to be growing at a rate of 20 percent GDP to start making a dent in the debt. Highest we ever hit was during WW2 of 10.1
August 19, 2026, 04:24 PM
mjlennon
Hit $40T yesterday.

Treasury

Debt Clock
August 19, 2026, 04:44 PM
Fly-Sig
quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:

And moments ago, Scott Bessent finally resolved the debate when, with 30Y yields at 20 year highs and threatening to blow out higher, the US Treasury shocked markets, sparked a meltdown in yields and surge in equity futures and gold when it announced at 8:30am that they will be "increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector). The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation."

This change will be effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026).

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...unespectedly-doubles


Do I understand it correctly?

1) The Federal Reserve will be buying back longer term bonds which, today, have higher yields than when they were issued. Or, iow, the buyback price is lower today than the price they originally sold for years ago? That's a gain for the Fed compared to having to pay full value at the original maturity date.

2) They will fund the buyback by issuing new shorter term bonds. This will mean the old debt which wasn't due to be paid off soon will now be short term debt that has to be paid back in months or just a few years.

Thus the Fed, a private bank, gains on this maneuver but the federal government and citizens lose.
August 19, 2026, 05:37 PM
chellim1
Yes, they are trying to hold down longer term interest rates, which they do not directly control.

It will fail.

"This Only Works For So Long":
Wall Street Reacts To The Treasury's Shocking Buyback Boost

"They can intervene again and they can push back. But ultimately, it’s going to be policy that dictates where you’ll go in the long term. We’re talking about the symptoms again, not fixing the cause."



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
August 19, 2026, 08:21 PM
fischtown7
Yes fly-sig, now if you really want to get mad google the shenanigans that are going on with the Japanese yen and bond markets, we are basically loaning them the money so they will not sell their treasuries.

"On Monday, Japan's finance minister said Tokyo could instead use the Federal Reserve's FIMA facility, which allows foreign central banks to borrow dollars against their US Treasury holdings rather than sell the securities outright."

So basically, more QE/debt.
August 19, 2026, 09:19 PM
chellim1
"Doom Loop" Engaged: US Debt Hits $40 Trillion As Treasury Enters The Endgame

It took the US 200 years to reach its first $1 trillion in debt. It took 95 days to add its last.

After several weeks of build up, today the Treasury announced that total public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, after jumping by over $60 billion in one day, and has now surged by $1 trillion in just over three months, and by a third of the total in less than five years, as US lawmakers continue to ignore calls to contend with historically wide fiscal deficits.

The largely expected news came just hours after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unexpectedly announced the Treasury's latest attempt to rein-in long-term borrowing costs from multi-year highs, the most important component of the growth in debt. The Treasury stunned the market when it said, just two weeks after the latest Refunding Announcement where it should have made this change, that it was ramping up the support for longer-dated securities by "increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector)."

The announcement that sent yields plunging, if only for the time being.

Remarkably, it was less than 5 years ago that US debt hit $30 trillion back in January 2022, illustrating the rapid growth in federal borrowing needs. And there’s no end in sight.

As Bloomberg notes, "Republicans have long opposed revenue-raising tax increases," while Democrats are best known for spending like drunken sailors to maximize socialist central planning, and both parties are loathe to sign on to politically toxic cuts to healthcare and retirement benefits for seniors. Many observers anticipate Congress and the administration of the day will only act if forced by a financial-market disruption.

That won't stop them from talking about it all the time, though, as both parties at least pretend to understand that the US is on a catastrophic collision course should debt growth continue at this pace, and if the AI bet - which is now an all-in for virtually everyone - fails to dramatically boost productivity. Bessent, for one, said a key reason he got involved in politics was to help tackle deficits running at a pace unprecedented for times outside of major wars, pandemics or depressed job markets. So far he has failed catastrophically, and worse, he is doing precisely the kind of activist issuance "Twisting" for which he bashed his predecessor, Janet Yellen.

Economists, the Congressional Budget Office and Wall Street all see little or no progress in coming years for the deficit-to-gross domestic product ratio.

“Optically, I’m sure crossing thresholds like $40 trillion will focus attention on the issue in the near term,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank AG. “But it does not represent a magical threshold for debt dynamics, and projections have anticipated this outcome for some time.”

More important, Luzzetti said, is the climb in US Treasury yields, which is steadily increasing the cost of servicing the record debt load. Last Thursday, the department’s latest 30-year bond auction resulted in the costliest such sale in a quarter century. A 10-year auction a day earlier drew the highest financing cost at that tenor since 2007, and only today's announcement which sent yields tumbling prevent today's 20Y Treasury auction from pricing at the highest yield on record.

As buyers demand higher yields, that in turn drives up the Treasury’s borrowing needs. With two months left to go in the fiscal year, the government’s tally for interest costs so far for 2026 is $1.37 trillion - a 20% increase on the same period a year before. That in turn adds to the debt, potentially fueling further investor calls for higher rates, in a pattern known as a “doom loop.”

For a visual of said doom loop, consider that the Treasury paid out about $85 billion to bondholders in its semi-annual coupon payment on Monday, the largest on record. For comparison, the Treasury paid out $75 billion of interest at the mid-month settlement period in August 2025 and about $80 billion on Feb. 17.

Interest costs are now the third-largest part of the budget, surpassing healthcare and just behind Social Security. However, at $1.6 trillion, Social Security will be topped by gross interest no later than 2026.

It gets worse: thanks to the AI bubble - and specifically the AI debt bubble which we correctly spotted one year ago and which the market is only now starting to freak out about - the record debt issuance to fund capex is now starting to crowd out of demand for US paper. This means that very soon, the US government will have to decide: keeping the electorate happy, or funding data centers so they can buy the latest massively overpriced memory chips needed to run the latest chatbot. Incidentally, those soaring memory costs are now adding about 0.5% to core PCE, a number which the admin will soon realize is very politically unpopular, and will lead to a historic crackdown on hyperinflationary memory and semiconductor prices.

“The federal budget is the enemy within,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and a former director of the CBO, wrote in a note Monday. “It is the greatest threat to the foundations of economic progress, U.S. international economic standing, and national security. The only reason for optimism should be material actions to rein in the sea of red ink. There are no such material actions.”

He is right, of course: the only time there can be material actions, is when the bond vigilantes crash the market, yet actions such as those by Bessent today assure that said day was just punted several weeks or months into the future, again and again.

But wait, because there is even more: all of the above assumes no recession, no crises, no emergencies for the foreseeable future. Well, consider that US debt exploded higher during the most recent economic downturns tied to the global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic. During those periods, revenue slid as tax-paying workers lost jobs, and assistance payments jumped. One can only imagine where US debt will be after the next recession/pandemic/hot war.

Going back to Bessent, the current Treasury secretary came into office in 2025 touting a budget deficit target of around 3% of GDP by the end of President Donald Trump’s second term, which concludes in January 2029. It’s not clear how that will possibly happen: as of July the ratio is 6% and rising... and will keep rising the longer the AI bubble drains demand for US long-dated paper.

Meanwhile, according to recent reports, Trump is seeking to galvanize support ahead of the November midterm elections, and is looking at new tax-cut promises in addition to increases in defense spending, both of which will supercharge the deficit and lead to even more debt. Meanwhile, the Elon Musk-led 2025 Department of Government Efficiency effort, which sought to slash discretionary spending including on contracts and government buildings, failed to cut outlays as much as DOGE’s own estimates projected.

And then there is the next round of political theater: the current pace of debt accumulation...

... means that the government has about 4 or 5 months before it again hits the debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion. Hitting that marker is expected to trigger another in the series of partisan showdowns in Washington over the years to head off a potentially devastating US payments default.

“The government has not taken meaningful actions to address the large general government fiscal deficits,” Fitch said. “Spending pressures will mount over the next decade due to an aging population.” The country will be “vulnerable to future economic shocks” as debt levels increase, the rating company said.

For Fitch, talk is cheap: instead of downgrading the US credit rating, one week ago Fitch reaffirmed the US at AA+, assuring that absolutely no remedial step will be taken, and that the next debt crisis will be cataclysmic.

“Hitting this big round number will hopefully send a wake up call throughout Washington,” said Michael Peterson, who chairs the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a research group, in regard to the $40 trillion. “It will hurt everyday affordability across the country if we don’t get our debt under control,” he said.

He is wrong: everyone knows that the US is on a historic collision course with destiny. The only wake up call was for gold and bitcoin algos, both of which finally woke up from a bizarre slumber, sending both real and digital gold soaring.

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...erica-enters-endgame



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
August 20, 2026, 12:55 AM
Aglifter
We were founded by Makers, fleeing Takers*.

Until we drive out, hang, nuke NoVA, or convert the Takers, we are doomed to fail like all other nations.

That’s really the only definition of freedom which actually matters. If the Takers rule, you’re a slave.

*As in, not a net tax payer. Whether crony or bureaucrat, it’s the same disease, just a different tier.
August 20, 2026, 01:23 AM
KMitch200
^^I agree with this!^^
DC can not control itself. It’s like asking a $200 a day addict to give up their fix.
Ain’t gonna happen unless forced to!!


--------
After the game, the King and the pawn go into the same box.
August 20, 2026, 07:12 AM
chellim1
quote:
Originally posted by Aglifter:
We were founded by Makers, fleeing Takers*.

Until we drive out, hang, nuke NoVA, or convert the Takers, we are doomed to fail like all other nations.

That’s really the only definition of freedom which actually matters. If the Takers rule, you’re a slave.

*As in, not a net tax payer. Whether crony or bureaucrat, it’s the same disease, just a different tier.

The original US Constitution had a version of this: Voting was restricted to white, male, property owners.

But your definition, whether crony or bureaucrat, is interesting. You should flush that out further. Lobbyists and bureaucrats alike will say that they file a tax return. Most of them will also say they pay taxes on their income.

This is a country where only about half of the people are net taxpayers. If you don't file a tax return or if your tax return has more credits (such as earned income credit) than income, it's just another form of welfare.

IMO, if you are on welfare you should not be voting to increase your own benefits.



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
August 20, 2026, 07:17 AM
Voshterkoff
It’s a good thing that the petro dollar is stronger than ever…
August 20, 2026, 08:04 AM
Graniteguy
Yes, but protecting that petro-dollar is becoming more and more difficult. (as we are seeing in Iran now)

Most people have no clue what the petro-dollar is and how it impacts our way of life here in the US.
August 20, 2026, 08:30 AM
fischtown7
quote:
Originally posted by Voshterkoff:
It’s a good thing that the petro dollar is stronger than ever…


Actually, it's been weakening since the Saudi's ended the deal we had with them. It used to be about 80 percent of all transactions were in dollars, but since India and other countries have started using their own currencies, I believe it's down to around 68 percent now.

Just saw this morning that Scott Bessent's intervention on treasuries yesterday was short lived and they are back on the way up.