https://www.sandiegouniontribu...-20181113-story.html

Climate contrarian uncovers scientific error, upends major ocean warming study

By Joshua Emerson SmithContact Reporter


esearchers with UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Princeton University recently walked back scientific findings published last month that showed oceans have been heating up dramatically faster than previously thought as a result of climate change.

In a paper published Oct. 31 in the journal Nature, researchers found that ocean temperatures had warmed 60 percent more than outlined by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

However, the conclusion came under scrutiny after mathematician Nic Lewis, a critic of the scientific consensus around human-induced warming, posted a critique of the paper on the blog of Judith Curry, another well-known critic.

“The findings of the ... paper were peer reviewed and published in the world’s premier scientific journal and were given wide coverage in the English-speaking media,” Lewis wrote. “Despite this, a quick review of the first page of the paper was sufficient to raise doubts as to the accuracy of its results.”

Co-author Ralph Keeling, climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, took full blame and thanked Lewis for alerting him to the mistake.

“When we were confronted with his insight it became immediately clear there was an issue there,” he said. “We’re grateful to have it be pointed out quickly so that we could correct it quickly.”

Keeling said they have since redone the calculations, finding the ocean is still likely warmer than the estimate used by the IPCC. However, that increase in heat has a larger range of probability than initially thought — between 10 percent and 70 percent, as other studies have already found.

“Our error margins are too big now to really weigh in on the precise amount of warming that’s going on in the ocean,” Keeling said. “We really muffed the error margins.”

A correction has been submitted to the journal Nature.

According to the most recent IPCC report, climate emissions need to be cut by 20 percent by 2030 and then zeroed out by 2075 to keep warming from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

Authors of the recent study had previously claimed that emissions levels in coming decades would need to be 25 percent lower to keep warming under that 2-degree cap.

While papers are peer reviewed before they’re published, new findings must always be reproduced before gaining widespread acceptance throughout the scientific community, said Gerald Meehl, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

“This is how the process works,” he said. “Every paper that comes out is not bulletproof or infallible. If it doesn’t stand up under scrutiny, you review the findings.”

The report relied on a novel approach that still has the potential to revolutionize how scientists measure the ocean’s temperature.

Much of the data on ocean temperatures currently relies on the Argo array, robotic devices that float at different depths. The program, which started in 2000, has gaps in coverage.

By comparison, Keeling and Laure Resplandy, a researcher at Princeton University’s Environmental Institute who co-authored the report, calculated heat based on the amount of oxygen and carbon dioxide rising off the ocean, filling round glass flasks with air collected at research stations around the globe.

Keeling said they will continue to experiment with the data in coming years in an attempt to fine-tune the data.

“It’s a promising new method, but we didn’t get the precision right on the first pass,” he said.

The study is still the first to confirm that the ocean is warming using a method independent of direct ocean temperature measurements.

Forgot to carry the 1...

I thought I heard a loud "Oh shit" coming from California.

Back to the drawing board, boys, making up new shit.

Well, at least the authors of the original publication were honest and rigorous enough to admit and correct their error. Clearly, they have no political agenda and are real scientists.

Rare these days.

RMD

Global Warming is Leftist scheme to embezzle tax payers Money.

Dang mathematical equations and science!

Where do they get to add in the EMOTION of it all!!!

But this won’t effect the global warming nuts one bit. But it’s good they owned up to their mistake.

quote:

Originally posted by rduckwor:
Well, at least the authors of the original publication were honest and rigorous enough to admit and correct their error. Clearly, they have no political agenda and are real scientists.

Rare these days.

RMD

Possibly, although it is more likely that the original results as published were used to grab a large chunk of the money being thrown at the global warming research. They may have submitted a revision to the journal, but what about the grant committee or the college alumni they are begging the money from?

Most journals won't even publish if your not in the expected confidence interval.


Must have been doing their statistics calculations with the "New Math".

quote:

In a paper published Oct. 31 in the journal Nature, researchers found that ocean temperatures had warmed 60 percent more than outlined by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

regardless of the error, I would be willing to bet Mother Nature did not read the report

So how do they explain those ice ages (17?) shown in the ice sheet core samples?

And I distinctly remember reading, seeing on TV, where those temperature readings taken by taxpayer funded "scientists" were measuring the temps at such legitimate places as asphalt parking lots, black tarred rooftops, etc.

Also remember where one of the major "research" operations was caught modifying the data to provide a specific result.

quote:

Originally posted by butterflyeffect:
Global Warming is Leftist scheme to embezzle tax payers Money.

Global warming is definetly happening, however the cause is not fully understood. Ocean are slightly warmer, which has caused extremely large amounts of coral bleaching, etc.

I doubt the "correction" will receive as prominent a placement as the original article.

Once again its agenda over science as it is agenda over news.

quote:

“We’re grateful to have it be pointed out quickly so that we could correct it quickly.”

I'll bet.



.

quote:

Originally posted by c1steve:

quote:

Originally posted by butterflyeffect:
Global Warming is Leftist scheme to embezzle tax payers Money.

Global warming is definetly happening, however the cause is not fully understood. Ocean are slightly warmer, which has caused extremely large amounts of coral bleaching, etc.

It would seem that a slightly warmer ocean would cause coral reefs to thrive and grow. A one degree change, if that, doesn't seem as if it would have much effect either way. I believe coral damage is coming from any combination of pollution, including sunscreen, and tourist divers who don't know or don't observe the rule of not touching the coral. I would really like to see the currents studied and water samples taken to test for pollution and its source(s). This would seem to make a lot more sense.



.

Climatologist from Scripp’s Institute showing how good he is at “Goes-in-tahs.”

quote:

Originally posted by butterflyeffect:
Global Warming is Leftist scheme to embezzle tax payers Money.

The hell you say!

Funny haha. As we enter a phase of, “solar minima”.

quote:

Originally posted by bigmule:
Funny haha. As we enter a phase of, “solar minima”.

Now you have to bring that up.

Everyone knows that the sun doesn't warm the earth.

quote:

Originally posted by c1steve:

quote:

Originally posted by butterflyeffect:
Global Warming is Leftist scheme to embezzle tax payers Money.

Global warming is definetly happening, however the cause is not fully understood. Ocean are slightly warmer, which has caused extremely large amounts of coral bleaching, etc.

Yep. I am willing to believe that the Climate is heating up a little, but I don't accept that humankind is responsible for it. The Earth's Climate has been up and down several times in its history and we're just experiencing the (probable) end of an up cycle.k

flaahguy