Probably not much. Deterrence through potential punishment in general isn't very effective when dealing with true criminals/predators.

True criminal don't think like you and me. A normal person will stop and consider stuff like "I don't want to commit that crime that because I don't want to go to prison for X number of years/become a felon/lose my rights/become a social outcast/potentially have my organs forcibly harvested/etc."

Many/most serious criminals seem lack the ability - or at least the desire - to anticipate consequences and weigh the costs/benefits to make rational decisions. They do stuff because it gets them what they want right now, and the future be damned.

Even among the ones who have the ability to consider potential consequences, many seem to have an attitude of "I'm invincible"/"they'll never catch me".

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:

True criminal don't think like you and me...

Many/most serious criminals seem lack the ability - or at least the desire - to anticipate consequences and weigh the costs/benefits to make rational decisions. They do stuff because it gets them what they want right now, and the future be damned...

Are you a cop?

Reason I ask is I was the victim of a car theft once and the responding detective told me the exact same thing after I said something to the effect of this 'not making sense'...

I learned a lot from the guy. Sadly he was killed in the line of duty a few years later.

------------------------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:
Are you a cop?

Yes.

quote:

Originally posted by wrightd:
How would the "system", "collapse". What system, and what would be the nature of this collapse ?

There isn't enough room to hold all the inmates if everyone served a full sentence for every crime.

There aren't enough court rooms and judges to hold all the trials.

There aren't enough prosecutors to prosecute all the trials.

For that matter, there aren't enough defense attorneys if every single case when to trial.

Keep in mind that a defendant has the right to a speedy trial... here that means within six months unless waived by the defense.

In my county:

If every single speeding ticket went to a hearing, if every single dog at large summons or ATV on the public highway or fishing without a license (misdemeanor in CO) summons went to trial there's no way you could possibly fit them all in in six months.

We have an average of 12 traffic tickets show up to court every Monday. Those are the ones who don't pay and decided to go to court. If every single one went to a hearing that's about an hour per hearing. That's a day and a half of the judge's time every week JUST for traffic tickets... plus the officers' time as well.... 6 days of court time per month.

Every Tuesday we have an average of 15 persons summoned for mostly minor criminal offenses. If every one of those went to trial, it would be an average of two days per trial... that's thirty days of trials EVERY WEEK... 120 days of trials every month.

We have probably an average of 20 people per month who appear in custody for more serious crimes. Conservatively, if we estimate 4 days per trial for each of those that's 80 more days per month of court time.

That's 206 DAYS of court time every month.

Thursdays in District Court are juvenile court. Fridays in District Court are divorce court. Wednesdays in County Court is civil and small claims.

We have two judges, two court rooms and one jury room. We have one prosecutor, one public defender. You couldn't POSSIBLY take every single infraction or offense to hearing or trial.

The same thing happens with more serious crimes: a felony assault takes up our court house for most of a week. A juvenile rape case took, I think, two weeks total.

Larger jurisdictions have similar problems: more resources but also far more cases. NOBODY can afford to have EVERYTHING go full term.

They HAVE to plea out most offenders so they can prosecute the ones who insist on a trial.

A dirty secret in the US judicial system: If everybody insisted on their day in court MOST cases would get dismissed. Jurisdictions simply don't have to resources to hold a trial for everyone.... but EVERYBODY would have to do it.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by BBMW:
Why? Our crime rate is similar, if marginally higher than other industrialized western democracies, yet our incarceration rate is multiple times higher.


I doubt our crime rates are similar. (Unless the other countries are doing the following)

Most crime is waaaaayyyyy under reported. IE- Police agencies, especially the larger ones, have a number of tricks to massage their stats. For instance, one agency I know of had outrageous numbers of larceny. All of a sudden, their numbers plummeted. They are way below the national standard. What did they do? They stopped taking reports for shoplifting cases, and other theft that was misdemeanor in nature. Gave the victims a self reporting form to give to their insurance companies and not reported in the NIBRS system. I know of other agencies that classify crimes incorrectly to fix their numbers. Some agencies won't respond to certain types of calls. Some agencies intentionally reclass burglaries to criminal mischief to keep it out of Part 1 crimes.

Now, other nations may be doing the same thing, but I have never heard of it.

I just think there is way more to it.

I've specifically heard of it in regard to the UK.

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by BBMW:
Why? Our crime rate is similar, if marginally higher than other industrialized western democracies, yet our incarceration rate is multiple times higher.


I doubt our crime rates are similar. (Unless the other countries are doing the following)

Most crime is waaaaayyyyy under reported. IE- Police agencies, especially the larger ones, have a number of tricks to massage their stats. For instance, one agency I know of had outrageous numbers of larceny. All of a sudden, their numbers plummeted. They are way below the national standard. What did they do? They stopped taking reports for shoplifting cases, and other theft that was misdemeanor in nature. Gave the victims a self reporting form to give to their insurance companies and not reported in the NIBRS system. I know of other agencies that classify crimes incorrectly to fix their numbers. Some agencies won't respond to certain types of calls. Some agencies intentionally reclass burglaries to criminal mischief to keep it out of Part 1 crimes.

Now, other nations may be doing the same thing, but I have never heard of it.

I just think there is way more to it.

Cool. I just never have.

quote:

Now, other nations may be doing the same thing, but I have never heard of it.

Japan notoriously classifies murders as suicides.

One reason their suicide rate and murder closure rate are both so high.

I dug this up on UK crime statistics, if anyone cares.

http://www.dailyunconstitution...n-is-lowering-crime/

quote:

There isn't enough room to hold all the inmates if everyone served a full sentence for every crime.

b e c a u s e : there is a b s o l u t e l y
no deterrent

Three times the deterrent = 2/3 less crime

We have people doing decades for drug dealing. Do you see any drop in drug sales?

quote:

Originally posted by bendable:

quote:

There isn't enough room to hold all the inmates if everyone served a full sentence for every crime.

b e c a u s e : there is a b s o l u t e l y
no deterrent

Three times the deterrent = 2/3 less crime

quote:

We have people doing decades for drug dealing. Do you see any drop in drug sales?

again
if they are not deterred by the currant consequences ,
the punishment is not currently appropriate ,

"Time" is not a deterrent
not short time, not medium time, not long time,
and sure as hell not time on parole.

up the consequences , considerably by donating the offenders organs , hands feet etc.

then we will see a turn around in recidivism.

So do more of what we're doing that hasn't worked? I don't even think the threat of the death penalty would be a deterrent, seeing as how often these skels get deadified by their "associates".

quote:

Originally posted by bendable:

quote:

We have people doing decades for drug dealing. Do you see any drop in drug sales?

again
if they are not deterred by the currant consequences ,
the punishment is not currently appropriate ,

"Time" is not a deterrent
not short time, not medium time, not long time,
and sure as hell not time on parole.

up the consequences , considerably by donating the offenders organs , hands feet etc.

then we will see a turn around in recidivism.

The entire notion that fear of consequences deters a meaningful number of future potential crimes is flawed in the first place. Same with fines and such.

They just don't work...

quote:

Originally posted by bendable:
b e c a u s e : there is a b s o l u t e l y
no deterrent

Three times the deterrent = 2/3 less crime

False. Stricter sentences have no statistically significant effect on crime rates or recidivism.

quote:

up the consequences , considerably by donating the offenders organs , hands feet etc

Sharia law has those consequences. There is still crime in Sharia law countries and I don't think such punishments are realistic in a civilized society.

quote:

Originally posted by tanksoldier:

quote:

Originally posted by bendable:
b e c a u s e : there is a b s o l u t e l y
no deterrent

Three times the deterrent = 2/3 less crime

False. Stricter sentences have no statistically significant effect on crime rates or recidivism.

quote:

up the consequences , considerably by donating the offenders organs , hands feet etc

Sharia law has those consequences. There is still crime in Sharia law countries and I don't think such punishments are realistic in a civilized society.

So, what's the solution then? The current system has proven to be a major clusterf*ck for the vast majority of us. Hell, I agree the current system isn't a deterrent. The way it currently works, it all but promotes these lowlifes to do as they please.

Ok, the consensus answer is to just do nothing.

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
Ok, the consensus answer is to just do nothing.

I don't think there is an answer/solution. I think this problem transcends life. I think it is part of the larger spiritual struggle between good and evil which is preexistent to this life. It is part of the sorting of the wheat and the tares. In this life we choose to either be wheat or tares. To be sheep or goats. That we have chosen to be wheat does not insulate us from the tares. To the contrary, we will have tares among us until the end. Until the two are sorted. What we must do is to remain wheat faithfully to the end in spite of the tares.

But when a tare comes to harm me, my family or the innocent.......I'll have to sort it out myself.

How many footless people with one hand , one lung and one kidney has a successful car theft ring going ?

how many meth heads with no eyesight, no hands and one lung are raking in the big bucks , these days?

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Why? Our crime rate is similar, if marginally higher than other industrialized western democracies, yet our incarceration rate is multiple times higher.

A lot of other countries don't classify some things as crimes...ie drug problems (sales, possession, use)

as mentioned, some departments don't classify crimes properly-ie, a break-in to a car and the larceny there after, is really a felony and is a Class 1 Crime. But if we only report the larceny thereafter then BOOM, Part 1 Crimes are down! YAY for US.....I mention this SPECIFIC crime reporting because I have seen it classified that way for the last decade....

Yet the crime rate is routinely reported to be "down". The guy gathering stats is told to compare the rate against last year or if that's too high then compare it to last month, or this month last year not the entire year...see where I'm going with this.