- This 'article' pulled the curtain back so-to-speak on how we analyze and monitor threats, not a big secret but, a bit more open now.
- Ballistic missiles, regardless of warhead type, can make a big impression. The terminal velocity is crazy.
- Defense against such threats is difficult but, not impossible. US force posture had been greatly reduced then however the need for some kind of air defense was not available. Doubt the familiar C-RAM defenses around Green Zone would have been able to defeat an inbound ballistic threat
- Got some intel on Iran's capability and effectiveness.




Just the impact footage

Looked like they hit what they aimed at. What kind of targeting do they have?

quote:

Originally posted by joel9507:
Looked like they hit what they aimed at. What kind of targeting do they have?

My guess would be locals or Third Country Nationals getting paid to give GPS coordinates that anyone can bring up on an Iphone.

Very scary deal. I'm surprised the Good guys let that go. Seems like it would embolden the enemy, but I am not a military man so I don't know much. Thankfully no one was killed, but it sounds like a lot of long term damage for many.

quote:

Originally posted by joel9507:
Looked like they hit what they aimed at. What kind of targeting do they have?

Not military but, at the most basic level, their missiles are using an internal navigation system; they don't have to be accurate, they just need to hit in a general vicinity. Launched 16 and 11 hit their destination, if anything it woke-up those military leaders who have a tendency to down-play or, minimize base defenses.

Who authorized the military interviewed in the 60 minutes piece?

The video of the attack shouldn’t have been released either.

And the sad thing is that a simple CWIS/Phalanx weapon system would have protected that base.

This was a screw up in a few ways: 1)The base had no basic point defenses for missile attack - not sure CIWS helps with Ballistic missiles but Iron Dome (Israeli) and the like do. 2)The base commander(?) made it clear that he had a devils choice and figured men would die - we should not put them in that position 3)I know why we didn’t (politics, escalation) but we should have laid waste 10x over for that attack. If things had been just a little bit different, many many men and women would have died - we got lucky.

Here is hoping we have learned our lesson, but if history is any indicator I’m not so sure. As always, our men and women in harm’s way need the best we can give them, and that includes leadership.

After the missile attack, skies over Iran should have been filled with US aircraft with ordnance for every military and nuclear target in that shithole.
And we had advance intelligence that predicted the attack was going to take place and we did not act proactively to stop it? WTF? Unacceptable!
It is a matter of time before the Iranians manage to get a nuke into either the U.S. (or our foreign bases) or Israel.
All these Islamic types have been killing each other since the dawn of time. Either fully commit to totally destroying them or GTFO. Lets fully support Israel and leave the rest of the Islamic countries to do what they do best - kill each other.

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:
Who authorized the military interviewed in the 60 minutes piece?

The video of the attack shouldn’t have been released either.

New SecDef is all about removing any precedent from the prior admin...and of course, being accessible to their 'friends in the media'.

quote:

And the sad thing is that a simple CWIS/Phalanx weapon system would have protected that base.

I don't think its able to handle ballistic threats given the inbound velocity and the necessary software.

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:

quote:

And the sad thing is that a simple CWIS/Phalanx weapon system would have protected that base.

I don't think its able to handle ballistic threats given the inbound velocity and the necessary software.

CIWS/Phalanx can't handle ballistic missiles. The speeds are just too great. CIWS is great at shooting down aircraft and cruise/anti-ship missiles up to mach 2-3 or so. Anyways, 20mm shells lack the range to engage ballistic missiles.

The only thing that could have taken out these missiles is a Patriot/SM3 anti-missile missile system (or, hear me out - wipe the Iranian missile launch sites off the face of the earth before they could launch). And even those are 'iffy' under the best of circumstances.

quote:

Originally posted by Sigolicious:

quote:

Originally posted by joel9507:
Looked like they hit what they aimed at. What kind of targeting do they have?

My guess would be locals or Third Country Nationals getting paid to give GPS coordinates that anyone can bring up on an Iphone.

Sorry, I probably misphrased my question.

I was wondering how those missiles hit so accurately what they aimed at (guidance), rather than how they knew what to aim at (G2).

I suppose we could have sent a ballistic missile in return

I’ll disagree with the majority. We did the right thing by letting this go. We killed their senior general & his body guards. They responded with SRBM attack, they killed no one but wrecked a bunch of stuff (including a lot of my stuff), all of which was replaced with 2 weeks. Had we responded kinetically, there’s a high chance we’d be bogged down fighting militias for years. Yes we’re still bogged down in Iraq, but if Trump had remained in office I think we may have withdrawn without a wider war.

Now that we’re remaining in Iraq, yes I do wish we’d have smoked tons of Iranian PMGs. But in the context of the time and assumptions we were leaving, I think we played it right.

The 60 Minutes story said the Iranians were buying commercial satellite images. That might be good enough. I just went on Google Earth, searched and found the base. It had decently high resolution images, and gave me detailed lat/long coordinates (how accurate, I don't know.) But between the two it would be enough to hurl the TBMs in the right direction.

But the military seemed to know that the attack was coming an where. I wonder if they could have:

- Spotted the launcher beforehand and blown them to smithereens.
- Gotten a PAC-3 or THAAD battery in position to intercept the attack.

quote:

Originally posted by Sigolicious:

quote:

Originally posted by joel9507:
Looked like they hit what they aimed at. What kind of targeting do they have?

My guess would be locals or Third Country Nationals getting paid to give GPS coordinates that anyone can bring up on an Iphone.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
But the military seemed to know that the attack was coming an where. I wonder if they could have:

- Spotted the launcher beforehand and blown them to smithereens.
- Gotten a PAC-3 or THAAD battery in position to intercept the attack.

Much like other foreign intel agencies keeping an eye on our aircraft carriers and bomber fleet, I imagine we've got satellite eyes on their key locations as well. We have a constellation of satellites to provide early warning and tracking system for missile launches. The story told of CENTCOM having awareness of Iran moving their launchers into place. I believe their SRBM's are liquid fueled so, seeing the missiles getting fueled would've also been a tell-tale sign of an impending launch.

Not sure on how fast a missile-defense system can be set-up. I would imagine it takes a bit of time, perhaps several days to set-up a system like THAAD...provided everything goes right.

Once on site, these systems can be deployed quickly. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot

quote:

The Patriot system is modular and highly mobile. A battery-sized element can be installed in less than an hour.

I can't find the equivalent statement about THAAD. But I'd bet it's similar.

Of course, they'd have to get there. I'd bet they have some in theater. If they had 24 hours warning, they systems could probably be deployed and operational.

quote:

Originally posted by corsair:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
But the military seemed to know that the attack was coming an where. I wonder if they could have:

- Spotted the launcher beforehand and blown them to smithereens.
- Gotten a PAC-3 or THAAD battery in position to intercept the attack.

Much like other foreign intel agencies keeping an eye on our aircraft carriers and bomber fleet, I imagine we've got satellite eyes on their key locations as well. We have a constellation of satellites to provide early warning and tracking system for missile launches. The story told of CENTCOM having awareness of Iran moving their launchers into place. I believe their SRBM's are liquid fueled so, seeing the missiles getting fueled would've also been a tell-tale sign of an impending launch.

Not sure on how fast a missile-defense system can be set-up. I would imagine it takes a bit of time, perhaps several days to set-up a system like THAAD...provided everything goes right.

Ironically, Al Asad used to be the safest place in Iraq. Short or Erbil, anyway.

quote:

Originally posted by sns3guppy:
Ironically, Al Asad used to be the safest place in Iraq. Short or Erbil, anyway.

Apparently not now....

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/r...&utm_medium=referral

quote:

Originally posted by sns3guppy:
Ironically, Al Asad used to be the safest place in Iraq. Short or Erbil, anyway.

Neither are great now, although both are way better than Balad circa 04-08. It’s interesting watching people concerned about 1-2 IDFs monthly when we used to operate 500% higher with 10-12 IDFs daily.

On my grandson's first deployment to the sandbox, he was tasked with setting up the air defenses around the base. Seems none of the officers knew how to do it. And grandson was a mid-level Special Forces NCO! He was also tasked with teaching a lot of enlisted personnel how to shoot a rifle, especially the female soldiers who had never fired a firearm. As I recall these were reservists.