quote:

Originally posted by tacfoley:
Call me stoopid, but I just do NOT get it. What can he possibly have to gain by going to war with the US? Invasion of the lower 48? What with? Occupation?

Notwithstanding Red Dawn 2, where the Norks had 'Soviet' assistance, they have sweet f***-all of an airforce, a farce of a 'navy' and their subjects are happy to take to the seas to wash up in skeletal form in Japan - see recent news - in ever-increasing numbers.

All this, however, is moot. A single missile landing on US sovereign territory will unleash the most horrendous response.

Won't it?

tac

I've read that he doesn't want to go to war. But he wants a viable power of deterrent because he doesn't want to become the next Hussein, with a foreign military stomping him out with impunity. Unfortunately, his deterrent is likely to cause something he doesn't want. Obama would be giving him anything he wants right now. Probably has been for the 8 years of his time. We don't know about Trump.

We can guess what Trump will signal. We will see what he (and thus "WE") do. The spectrum of fallout from success or failure, or political or military action, is catastrophically large.

Sometimes leaders actually want to do just what they say they want to do. Hitler and the Aryan race, for instance. And Chamberlain brushed it all aside, claiming he would be appeased by a few, limited concessions.

Kim has been saying for a long time that he wants to develop the capability to hit the US with nuclear missiles because he wants to hit the US with nuclear missiles. It makes no sense to us, it seems lunatic and mutually destructive, etc etc. But, you know, it might make sense to him . Consider this: he is worshipped as a god.

If you start with a crazy premise-- like "Kim Jung Un is a god"-- you can reason your way, "logically" to any number of totally crazy conclusions. Even ones that include "We should strike the US with nuclear missiles."

Given the apogee and range of yesterday’s missile, what would it’s max range be and why (the math)?
If Kim has the capability of a dirty bomb or an RF bomb, we definitely should be concerned.
Agree with all the above, other than an assasination, militarily force appears a losing situation.

The range would depend on the weight of the load. We don't know what weight the one yesterday was carrying, so it is hard to calculate the full range.

This is apparently a new model - 15 - as opposed to the 14's that were fired off a few months ago. It reached a height greater than the International Space Station. If fired on a more flat trajectory, it can go a greater distance. It all comes down to what distance it can fly with a load. Until we know that, the distance calculation is preliminary.

NK is making statements that can be considered to mean that they don't need to make any more test firings at this time. Diplomats think that it is again time to try talk (I'm not saying I agree with this - only reporting what I heard on the reports).

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:

quote:

Originally posted by tacfoley:
Call me stoopid, but I just do NOT get it. What can he possibly have to gain by going to war with the US? Invasion of the lower 48? What with? Occupation?

Notwithstanding Red Dawn 2, where the Norks had 'Soviet' assistance, they have sweet f***-all of an airforce, a farce of a 'navy' and their subjects are happy to take to the seas to wash up in skeletal form in Japan - see recent news - in ever-increasing numbers.

All this, however, is moot. A single missile landing on US sovereign territory will unleash the most horrendous response.

Won't it?

tac

I've read that he doesn't want to go to war. But he wants a viable power of deterrent because he doesn't want to become the next Hussein, with a foreign military stomping him out with impunity. Unfortunately, his deterrent is likely to cause something he doesn't want. Obama would be giving him anything he wants right now. Probably has been for the 8 years of his time. We don't know about Trump.

We can guess what Trump will signal. We will see what he (and thus "WE") do. The spectrum of fallout from success or failure, or political or military action, is catastrophically large.

I believe this it the most probable point of view from Kim. From the perspective of a self centered egomaniac, dead is dead. It doesn't matter if Kim dies alone, or alongside all north Koreans.

Once he gets a useable missile design and begins mass producing them, acheiving a MAD level of deterrent, he eliminates the higher probability event, dying like Saddam Hussein after an invasion. He also greatly reduces the probability of dying alongside the rest of North Korea in a nuclear war. He knows that once he has the ability to destroy the US, he's safe from us.

Either way, from the perspective of a paranoid egomaniac who sees himself surrounded by hostile nations intent on killing him, a nuclear arsenal is his only route to self preservation.

If a war with North Korea must happen, the best time to start it will always be now. His missiles and bombs will only get better in time. He will never give them up! As a paranoid egomaniac, he sees this as his only way to deter an invasion and secure his lavish lifestyle.

The best time to do something about this would have been in the past, but in accordance with known physics that can't happen. It's either now, with a high probability of massive death and destruction in the region, later when he's even more dangerous, or never. Our leadership is trying hard to reach a peaceful resolution, but it's not going to happen. My opinion only, but I think we will most end up living with the Soviet style threat. T
he alternatives are horrific.

Once he can manufacture enough to reach a MAD level of deterrence, we will have no choice but live with the threat, just like the 60s.

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226: Once he can manufacture enough to reach a MAD level of deterrence, we will have no choice but live with the threat, just like the 60s.

The difference may be building/improving missile defenses that would render his capability against us useless.

We had better be building THAAD missiles and the next generation day and night. Even if 50% effective, fine. He launches, we launch 10 countermeasures to make sure we get it.

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226: Once he can manufacture enough to reach a MAD level of deterrence, we will have no choice but live with the threat, just like the 60s.

The difference may be building/improving missile defenses that would render his capability against us useless.

We had better be building THAAD missiles and the next generation day and night. Even if 50% effective, fine. He launches, we launch 10 countermeasures to make sure we get it.

I couldn't agree more!

But, at this point, trillions in debt and spending all our disposible income buying flat screens, escalades and sexchanges for the unemployed, I doubt we can afford it.

quote:

Originally posted by Cassandra:
Given the apogee and range of yesterday’s missile, what would it’s max range be and why (the math)?
If Kim has the capability of a dirty bomb or an RF bomb, we definitely should be concerned.
Agree with all the above, other than an assasination, militarily force appears a losing situation.

This article covers it well 1/2 rule of missile range

quote:

Originally posted by Hound Dog:

quote:

Originally posted by Expert308:
I'd like to see what would happen if he screwed up and launched one west instead of east.

Be a shame if somebody hacked their network and flipped the launch azimuth on the next one. . .

I was thinking a convenient industrial accident like what happened in Iran.

How long after Kim has his nuclear stockpile before tanks roll south to alleviate his financial burdens?

quote:

Originally posted by bdylan:
How long after Kim has his nuclear stockpile before tanks roll south to alleviate his financial burdens?

Highly doubt that would happen. If it did then it would be on like donkey Kong

Well, there's an update of sorts.

quote:

North Korea's 'Surprise' Missile Launch Didn't Fool U.S.
Jessica Kwong, Newsweek, 12/7/2017

North Korea last week chose a night launch for its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile to date, to illustrate its ability to make a sneak attack. Problem is, the U.S. knew about it days ahead of time.

U.S. military intelligence detected preparations for the missile event at least 72 hours before the launch on November 29, according to The Diplomat. A U.S. government source said officials observed North Koreans setting up the launch pad for the Hwasong-15 missile's firing table three hours before the launch and saw the missile being erected an hour later.

With its network of spy planes, satellites and drones hovering over North Korea, the U.S. demonstrated it was watching the 3 a.m. launch that North Korean state-run news agency claimed showed "the capability of making surprise launch of ICBM in any region and place any time."

The observation windows roughly matched the warning time U.S. intelligence had before North Korea's previous two missile launches, which happened more than two months ago.

Further text excised for relevance. Full text at http://www.yahoo.com/news/nort...ssile-181151931.html

So is that enough of a heads up that, if we had forces in the area, we could prevent a launch from happening at all? If so, then that ain't much of a deterrent to keep us from attacking the North Koreans.

That little fucker can't let loose a silent fart in a Kimchi factory without the US knowing about it.

So why don't the give the giant " laser" in an airplane we just built a little test run and destroy the missiles on the launch pad. A massive explosion would likely take out a bunch of Lil Kim's launch minions thus hampering the missile program.

One PITA about taking on the North Koreans is that they're positioned in such a way that both the Communist Chinese and the Russians have excellent observation posts on their own sovereign territory. My hope would be that if there's that much lead time, conventional shipboard missiles could send the same message without giving our biggest potential enemies ringside seats for field tests of our newer weapons.

IMO Hound Dog has the right idea. Take control at the moment of launch, go straight up and come straight down. Boom.

Put our best computer minds on solving the “how to”