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Fighting the good fight |
And could soon be in a position to do similar with Poland. Notice that large squareish chunk of land in the upper left of the map on the Baltic coast, between Poland and Lithuania? That's Kaliningrad... Part of Russia. Home of a sizeable Russian military force. So with troops able to advance south from Kaliningrad, west from Belarus, and north from Ukraine, it'd be a similar situation in Poland to what they did in Ukraine with Belarus/Russia/Crimea. Plus, taking just that small corner area of northeastern Poland between Belarus and Kaliningrad also isolates the three Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia (all former Soviet states that are now part of NATO) from the rest of NATO. | |||
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Member |
If Russia invades Poland, how do things not go to shit? There are really only two possibilities: 1. NATO responds and the war gets a whole lot bigger. 2. NATO doesn’t respond, NATO self destructs because it has demonstrated it won’t act to protect member nations, and eastern Europe goes to hell in a handbasket. | |||
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Fire begets Fire |
I believe that Poland is likely safer than the Baltics However the Refugees may mess with the calculus "Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty." ~Robert A. Heinlein | |||
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| Member |
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all NATO members, too. How would the result be any different? | |||
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| Fire begets Fire |
Just look at the geography … Do you think you can get all 30 countries of NATO to agree to go against Russia when they get all their energy from same country? Doubtful. Especially since there are no longer any energy alternatives for Europe. "Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty." ~Robert A. Heinlein | |||
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| Member |
If NATO didn’t respond, how would it matter whether they didn’t respond to an invasion of Poland or to an invasion of Estonia? Either way it’s possibility #2. | |||
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| Member |
The Baltics are so small and exposed that they eould probably be gobbled up before NATO could decide what to do. | |||
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| Member |
Putin and the hawks he serves, MIGHT call NATO's bluff and attempt something on the Northern Plain, I doubt it. There's already a massing of armor and other resources poured into that area. Poland and the Baltic's have been primed for this. If there's any attempt by Russia to push beyond Ukraine's border's, it in the area around Bessarabia Gap, the area around Moldovia and Romania. This is the second and lesser known access point from the Ukraine/Russian Steppe into the open spaces of Europe. The Carpathian Mtns separate these two low laying areas. Europe and principally Germany are going to have to return to the drawing board and revise their green energy push. The over-emphasis on renewables and the reliance on Russian gas, while eschewing nuclear, is biting them in the ass; we saw this scenario playing-out years ago.  The only thing working out is Spring is just around the corner unfortunately, there's still a few more months of cold weather to come. | |||
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| Partial dichotomy |
How ridiculous they let themselves get into such a position. SIGforum: For all your needs! Imagine our influence if every gun owner in America was an NRA member! Click the box>>>  | |||
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| wishing we were congress |
https://www.breitbart.com/nati...nk-kills-in-ukraine/ Ukrainian forces are reporting success in using American-made Javelin anti-tank missiles against invading Russian armor. British NLAW weapons are also reportedly performing well against Russian tanks. The FGM-148 Javelin Close Combat Missile System-Medium (CCMS-M) is an advanced man-portable anti-armor weapon developed in a joint venture by Raytheon and Lockheed-Martin to replace the M47 Dragon in the mid-1990s. It is possible to mount Javelins on robot vehicles and fire them remotely. Javelins are employed by the U.S. Army and Marines to counter enemy armor, penetrate hard targets like bunkers, and even destroy helicopters. The Javelin’s advantages include “soft launch” capability with minimal exhaust fumes and recoil, making it possible to launch them from inside buildings during urban combat operations; a top-attack flight profile that sends the missile above its target, giving it a chance to find the weakest point in enemy armor before it strikes; fire-and-forget electronics that allow the users to move quickly out of harm’s way after firing; and double warheads that have proven very effective at defeating all existing forms of armor. Javelins are noted for their high degree of reliability and effectiveness in adverse battlefield conditions, the remarkable accuracy of their targeting computers, and excellent range for such a light weapon. The entire Javelin launch and targeting package weighs less than 50 pounds. It takes about 30 seconds to set up and fire, and perhaps 20 seconds to reload. Military analysts regard the Javelin as the premier anti-tank weapon in the world, with only a few other platforms coming close to its battle-tested capabilities. Perhaps the highest tribute to its quality is that the Chinese stole it as quickly as possible. The Dragon missile superseded by the Javelin had plenty of armor-piercing power, but it was bulkier, less reliable, had shorter range, and lacked ability to fly above armored vehicles and strike down at their weak points. The final nail in the Dragon’s coffin was the introduction of “reactive armor” on late-model Soviet tanks, a form of armor that sacrifices an outer layer of disposable tiles to blunt the impact of anti-tank missiles. Javelins defeat reactive armor by using their first warhead to disperse the reactive tiles, then punching through the enemy’s main armor layer with the second warhead. Ukraine received a shipment of Javelins as recently as late January, as part of the latest $200 million security package offered by the United States. On Friday, Estonia announced it would send some of its Javelin inventory to Ukraine, along with food, medical equipment, and protective gear. At around the same time, the British government hurriedly shipped almost 200 units of its RB-57 Next Generation Light Antitank Weapon (NLAW) to Ukraine, adding to almost 2,000 previously delivered. The U.K. also sent paratroopers to train the Ukrainians in effective use of the NLAW. The NLAW is a British-Swedish collaboration that has some similarities to the Javelin, including components provided by Raytheon. The platform was developed in the early 2000s and saw action on the battlefields of Yemen, having been purchased by Saudi Arabia. Like the Javelin, NLAWs have soft-launch features, top-attack mode, and fire-and-forget targeting. The NLAW has considerably shorter range than the Javelin, but has the advantage of much lower production costs. Some analysts believe the NLAW will become the more popular of the two platforms in the future as drones take over the longer-range targeting functions of the Javelin. The Ukrainian military claimed on Thursday to have wiped out an entire column of fifteen Russian T-72 tanks using Javelins. The American-made weapons appear to be a good fit for engagements in the open plains and long roads of eastern Ukraine. | |||
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| Member |
Again, how does that matter to my initial point? North Atlantic Treaty, Article 5 (in part): “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” It specifically says “RESTORE and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” It doesn’t say “except if the attack is really, really fast.” It wouldn’t matter if it were Estonia, or Poland, or if Russia took everything east of Berlin in 24 hours. If Russia invades a NATO member country, there are exactly two possible outcomes. Either NATO goes to war with Russia to kick them out or everyone recognizes that the whole point of NATO’s existence is a meaningless joke because the member nations of NATO have made it one by not acting. | |||
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| Fire begets Fire |
Russia can supply all the wheat and energy China wants. "Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty." ~Robert A. Heinlein | |||
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Member |
Nope. This one is on the Russians. That area was part of the USSR in 1986. ——————————————— The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1 | |||
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Happily Retired |
Make no mistake, many of the NATO countries "not acting" is a very real possibility. .....never marry a woman who is mean to your waitress. | |||
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| Fire begets Fire |
Not just a probability, more than likely. Ever put 30 people in a room and try to get them to agree on something? "Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty." ~Robert A. Heinlein | |||
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| Freethinker |
Yup. As someone who was eating wild berries in Norway shortly thereafter and will blame it on the GD Commies if I ever develop cancer, I was well aware of the disaster. I never considered it to be anything more than yet one more Soviet industrial and nuclear failure. I didn’t even think of its being in Ukraine until I saw it mentioned here. ► 6.4/93.6 “Cet animal est très méchant, quand on l’attaque il se défend.” | |||
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| wishing we were congress |
The Ukranian capital of Kyiv is under attack from multiple directions, according to Fox News foreign correspondent Trey Yingst. Yingst says heavy "fighting in the streets" including small arms fire and loud explosions can be heard approximately 10-15 minutes from where he is located in the city of Kyiv. Russian forces are inside the city limits, according to Ukranian officials. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned earlier in the evening that Russian forces will storm Kyiv in the early hours Saturday morning local time. In a video message to Ukrainians he warned them to make preparations and be ready for what they will face. Ukraine time: 5am xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx update: After a number of blasts Friday night and early Saturday in and around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, the city has had a lull for the last 45 minutes. As of 5 a.m. local time, the city has been quiet with no explosions heard or seen by CNN reporters on the ground. Earlier Saturday between 2 to 4 a.m., CNN teams reported hearing loud explosions to the west and south of the city, with the sky lit up with a series of flashes. Shortly after, videos from eyewitnesses showed explosions to the city's northwest. | |||
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| Gracie Allen is my personal savior! |
I don't know how many people happen to recall this, but Russia was actually forced to fight two Chechen wars before they were able to install a puppet(ish - Khadyrov is a royal PITA for them) regime there. The first time, armor rolled through the forests, hit the urban areas, and got eaten alive. One study (unfortunately packed away, or I'd cite it) said it was because the post-Soviet-collapse Russian Army effectively had no doctrine for armored operations in cities. Russia pulled back, absorbed the lessons learned, and tried again. The second time was the charm. Apparently the Russians haven't figured out how to counter the Javelins and NLAWs effectively yet. Here's hoping that does enough to preserve Ukranian defenses that they can bleed Russia's infantry enough to push them back despite Russia's overwhelming numerical advantage. If that happens then maybe we'll find out if a newly-motivated Europe is willing to help make re-invasion a truly bad idea.
Twenty of the thirty should be enough. The rest Europe can already see the natural gas noose tightening around its neck and can therefore see that diversification of supply is essential enough to be both inevitable and to be obtained as rapidly as possible. | |||
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| Looking at life thru a windshield  |
I was with 2AD(FWD) in North Germany when the reactor blew, I know we had to recalibrate all our rad counters, also the Germans put out warnings not to eat berries or mushrooms picked in the woods. | |||
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| Looking at life thru a windshield |
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