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SIGforum's Berlin
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Picture of BansheeOne
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Things are moving on the armor front. There have been indications for a couple days that the US intends to supply M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. Yesterday, France stated they will deliver AMX-10RC wheeled reconnaissance/tank destroyer vehicles. Germany just announced delivery of 40 Marder IFVs and another Patriot battery in addition to the one promised by the US; also in talks with two unnamed countries for more Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun systems beyond the 37 from German industry stocks already provided or being readied.

This is reportedly the result of tri-lateral talks in recent weeks to prepare Ukraine for an expected Russian spring offensive. It still stops short of supplying Western main battle tanks; but then the current generation which weighs upwards of 55 tons (very much upwards for the most recent variants) might be of limited use for a country with an infrastructure geared towards ex-Soviet types which top out at about 45.
 
Posts: 2314 | Location: Berlin, Germany | Registered: April 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
would not care
to elaborate
Picture of sse
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There's a familiar saying, roughly re-stated, that war is the failure of statesmanship/diplomacy, or something like that.

This may be an exception in that Putin isn't negotiating in good faith (?), nor is NATO, US, or Zelenesky (?). I don't know and nobody is forthcoming.


********************
 
Posts: 2282 | Location: USA | Registered: June 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Wait, what?
Picture of gearhounds
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After all the footage I’ve seen, Ukraine doesn’t need armor; it needs lots of shoulder mounted manpads, drones with strike capability, and other long range munitions. Going toe to toe with armor will be costly attrition.




“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown
 
Posts: 14404 | Location: Martinsburg WV | Registered: April 02, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
God will always provide
Picture of Fla. Jim
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quote:
Originally posted by sse:
There's a familiar saying, roughly re-stated, that war is the failure of statesmanship/diplomacy, or something like that.

This may be an exception in that Putin isn't negotiating in good faith (?), nor is NATO, US, or Zelenesky (?). I don't know and nobody is forthcoming.


I think that saying goes “Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.” By Isaac Asimov .
 
Posts: 4324 | Location: White City, Florida | Registered: January 11, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Baroque Bloke
Picture of Pipe Smoker
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quote:
Originally posted by Fla. Jim:
<snip>
I think that saying goes “Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.” By Isaac Asimov .

Yep, that describes ol’ Vladimir pretty well.



Serious about crackers.
 
Posts: 7495 | Location: San Diego | Registered: July 26, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
personal savior!
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Eh, this may be a new level. If violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, what is mindless, pointless, demonstrably ineffective and self-destructive violence?
 
Posts: 27054 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Staring back
from the abyss
Picture of Gustofer
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Evil.


________________________________________________________
"Great danger lies in the notion that we can reason with evil." Doug Patton.
 
Posts: 18563 | Location: Montana | Registered: November 01, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His diet consists of black
coffee, and sarcasm.
Picture of egregore
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quote:
There's a familiar saying, roughly re-stated, that war is the failure of statesmanship/diplomacy, or something like that.

It depends. I have also heard war described as "diplomacy by other means."
 
Posts: 26441 | Location: Johnson City/Elizabethton, TN | Registered: April 28, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
personal savior!
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Well, the concept of diplomacy by other means can be taken too far to be useful. Since the inception of this fighting last February, Russia's position on talks has been "give us what we want, shut up, and maybe we'll stop shooting you for a while".

So far they haven't managed to get anything at all in Ukraine - and haven't gotten much in the rest of Europe - through diplomacy.
 
Posts: 27054 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
would not care
to elaborate
Picture of sse
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The motives of both sides, especially those of the US and NATO, are not at all typical what is historically seen. War for it's own sake.


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Posts: 2282 | Location: USA | Registered: June 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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The starving defense contractors needed something to fill the void left by leaving Afghanistan.


____________________________________________________

The butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest heart.
 
Posts: 13162 | Location: Bottom of Lake Washington | Registered: March 06, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fighting the good fight
Picture of RogueJSK
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quote:
Originally posted by egregore:
quote:
There's a familiar saying, roughly re-stated, that war is the failure of statesmanship/diplomacy, or something like that.

It depends. I have also heard war described as "diplomacy by other means."


General Carl von Clausewitz: "War is a continuation of politics with other means."

(Also sometimes translated/phrased as "War is a continuation of diplomacy by other means".)

Either way, his point was that war and politics are inextricably intertwined, and war is simply one avenue through which a nation may choose to attempt to pursue their political/diplomatic goals.

So not necessarily a "failure of diplomacy", which paints it as a last result when all else has failed, or something that could be avoided if they had just tried harder. That's not the reality of the world. Often there is a deliberate choice made to pursue the avenue of war instead of (or even ahead of) some other potential diplomatic or political routes, perhaps because the leadership believes that war is now the most likely or fastest means to achieve their ends, or perhaps because they believe war is inevitable anyway and want to have the advantage of striking first.
 
Posts: 30421 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
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True, but their diplomatic aims boiled down to a raw demand for they say are their war aims. Ultimatums are part of diplomacy, but they aren't what people typically think of as diplomacy simply because they are considered to signal an end to diplomacy. Someone who opens a conversation with an ultimatum doesn't expect to practice much diplomacy in the course of achieving what they're after.
 
Posts: 27054 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Freethinker
Picture of sigfreund
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quote:
Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
Someone who opens a conversation with an ultimatum doesn't expect to practice much diplomacy in the course of achieving what they're after.

Ya think?

In reading some of the recent discussion I can only wonder how much some people actually know about this war. I get the impression that they believe it was sort of like a bar brawl that starts because a couple of drunks get into an argument about sports teams.

This conflict is the moral equivalent of someone’s sitting in his house watching TV when a gang breaks in, kills his son, rapes his wife, and starts stealing the silverware. The homeowner runs to another room, retrieves a gun, and gets into a gunfight to expel the intruders. But now some moronic commentator says, “Wait, wait. Stop fighting and start negotiating about how much of your property they can have and where they can live in your house.”

Just incredible. Roll Eyes




7/93
“Cet animal est très méchant, quand on l’attaque il se défend.”
 
Posts: 46430 | Location: 10,150 Feet Above Sea Level in Colorado | Registered: April 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
SIGforum's Berlin
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Picture of BansheeOne
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While gas prices have dropped to pre-war winter levels following an all-time record warm end of the year and two of the planned floating LNG terminals now in operation, I wouldn't say further prospects for the German economy are just dandy yet, but agree with the overall message below. Though again, it will be some time - probably a year from now - before consumers feel the relief due to the long-term nature of most contracts.

quote:

Putin has lost the gas war against Germany


Andrey Gurkov
Commentary

14 hours ago

Russia can no longer use its natural gas to blackmail Berlin. Germany has filled its storage facilities without Gazprom's help, and it's prepared for next winter as well, writes Andrey Gurkov.

It would be premature to talk about Russian military defeat in Ukraine. But Vladimir Putin has lost the gas war against Germany — that much can already be said for certain. Germany has the largest natural gas storage capacities in the whole of the EU. And if these are still more than 90% full in mid-January, at the height of the heating season, it means the loss of Russian gas supplies no longer constitutes a threat.

When Russia invaded Ukraine almost 11 months ago, Germany was importing more than half its natural gas from Russia. Blackmailing Germany was therefore the centerpiece of the economic pressure Moscow piled on the European Union, aiming to undermine European support for the Ukrainian people and their army.

Germany is in its fifth month without Gazprom

The plan has failed. Germans are not freezing in their homes; they have not been forced to shut down their factories. Politicians in Berlin are no longer afraid that Moscow could take revenge on Germany and bring the country to a standstill. No — Germany itself renounced coal and crude oil from Russia as part of the EU sanctions, and since the end of August it has not received any natural gas from Gazprom, either.

In other words, Germans have been living without gas from the supposedly indispensable Russian pipeline for five months now — and Europe's largest economy appears to be coping well. Yes, a recession is still anticipated; that would not be surprising, given the collapse of decades-old supply chains and the explosion of energy prices. But indicators increasingly show that the downturn will probably be fairly mild. Even the record inflation is slowing.

Meanwhile, Berlin is expanding its military support for Kyiv, which can be seen as further, indirect evidence of the failure of Putin's "gas special operation." In early January — when Germany was storing gas for the third week in a row, most uncharacteristically for the time of year — the German government changed its position and was finally persuaded to deliver armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. Heavy battle tanks may follow; discussions are already underway.

Regulatory authority gives the all-clear

In further evidence that Putin has lost the gas war, the German economy and population have been given an unequivocal all-clear by two sources at the same time: the state regulatory authority, and an industry association.

First, the Federal Network Agency officially announced that "a gas shortage this winter is becoming increasingly unlikely." In a newspaper interview, the head of the agency, Klaus Müller, added that he now expects gas prices to stop fluctuating and stabilize around the current level. This is still considerably higher than before, but far lower than the record levels seen in the summer. At these prices, the energy-intensive sectors of German industry "could finally work on gaining ground again," Müller said.

Shortly afterward, INES, the Association of German Gas and Hydrogen Storage Operators, presented scenarios for 2023 at its monthly press conference. Assuming normal weather and temperatures, the fill level at the end of this winter would be 65%, he said. That would be an extremely comfortable starting point for gas storage during the summer months, and for ensuring fill levels of 100% as early as September.

In other words, industry experts are assuring German businesses and households that they need not expect any problems with gas reserves either this winter or next — provided "the current heavy reductions in consumption are maintained."

Gazprom has lost its largest sales market

However, INES experts also modeled the worst-case scenario: The weather turns particularly cold, the availability of liquefied natural gas drops massively as a result of sudden, very high demand from Asia, and Russia simultaneously halts all gas supplies to Europe, which requiries Germany to share its reserves in solidarity with other EU countries. Yet even in such a scenario, Germany does not need to fear gas shortages in either the current heating period or the next.

Essentially, these two all-clears are convincing confirmation that Putin really has lost his gas war. Germany is starting 2023 without Russian gas, and with no need to worry about the loss. This is precisely the Kremlin's defeat: Russian natural gas is no longer an effective weapon against Germany. This loss has even more far-reaching consequences: The state-owned company Gazprom has lost its most important foreign sales market. Just one year ago, a quarter of all its exports were sold to Germany.


https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-...t-germany/a-64387963
 
Posts: 2314 | Location: Berlin, Germany | Registered: April 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Internet Guru
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This crap can go on for years. Luckily Daddy Yankee has deep pockets. Bizarre that American voters think this is a good use of our tax dollars.
 
Posts: 1729 | Registered: April 06, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Short & sweet. It ain’t our business And if it does become our business, no mercy. On leadership! Regular folks, leave ‘ em alone.
 
Posts: 5414 | Location: west 'by god' virginia | Registered: May 30, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get my pies
outta the oven!

Picture of PASig
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quote:
Originally posted by BansheeOne:
While gas prices have dropped to pre-war winter levels following an all-time record warm end of the year and two of the planned floating LNG terminals now in operation, I wouldn't say further prospects for the German economy are just dandy yet, but agree with the overall message below. Though again, it will be some time - probably a year from now - before consumers feel the relief due to the long-term nature of most contracts.

[QUOTE]
Putin has lost the gas war against Germany


Andrey Gurkov
Commentary

14 hours ago

Russia can no longer use its natural gas to blackmail Berlin. Germany has filled its storage facilities without Gazprom's help, and it's prepared for next winter as well, writes Andrey Gurkov.

It would be premature to talk about Russian military defeat in Ukraine. But Vladimir Putin has lost the gas war against Germany — that much can already be said for certain. Germany has the largest natural gas storage capacities in the whole of the EU. And if these are still more than 90% full in mid-January, at the height of the heating season, it means the loss of Russian gas supplies no longer constitutes a threat.


Yeah, because Americans are getting fucked now.

All the natural gas here is getting made into LNG for Europe and causing our prices to triple.

Confused


 
Posts: 31507 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: November 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
They're after my Lucky Charms!
Picture of IrishWind
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And Russia just needs to build pipe lines to China and India and start getting that cash flow back.

But it is a good step that Europe is dropping it's energy dependence on Russia.


Lord, your ocean is so very large and my divos are so very f****d-up
Dirt Sailors Unite!
 
Posts: 24850 | Location: NoVa | Registered: May 06, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
7.62mm Crusader
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by PASig:
quote:
Originally posted by BansheeOne:
While gas prices have dropped to pre-war winter levels following an all-time record warm end of the year and two of the planned floating LNG terminals now in operation, I wouldn't say further prospects for the German economy are just dandy yet, but agree with the overall message below. Though again, it will be some time - probably a year from now - before consumers feel the relief due to the long-term nature of most contracts.

[QUOTE]
Putin has lost the gas war against Germany


Andrey Gurkov
Commentary

14 hours ago

Russia can no longer use its natural gas to blackmail Berlin. Germany has filled its storage facilities without Gazprom's help, and it's prepared for next winter as well, writes Andrey Gurkov.

It would be premature to talk about Russian military defeat in Ukraine. But Vladimir Putin has lost the gas war against Germany — that much can already be said for certain. Germany has the largest natural gas storage capacities in the whole of the EU. And if these are still more than 90% full in mid-January, at the height of the heating season, it means the loss of Russian gas supplies no longer constitutes a threat.


Yeah, because Americans are getting fucked now.

All the natural gas here is getting made into LNG for Europe and causing our prices to triple.

Confused
Yup. All the time and money spent fracking Marcellus and your State making the biggest contribution, just to politic it away to defeat russia. It was billed as gas for Americans, clean and affordable. What a shit show. I have friends in Pennsylvania who have well heads on their properties. They are paid good for this. Only to have the product shipped off to Europe.
 
Posts: 17368 | Location: The Bluegrass State! | Registered: December 23, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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