You guys are nuts. You are so determined to “call” the next bust that you are borderline manic about it. If a house that sells for 600 k today sells for 250k tomorrow which not only wipes out the boom market but also about 2 decades of gains. Do your own math. A 600k house probably has 100 to 150k of “boom” baked in. Then the other 250k is the 3-5% gain year per year that the housing market tends towards. Your scenario isn’t returning the market to where it should be it literally erases decades of incremental gain. A full blown meltdown. Which would spill over into everything else.

Not only are you wrong and next year when you are still wrong you will probably cling to the “you just wait” argument you will still be wrong, but you should be grateful how wrong you are. You guys rooting for a crash are hard to understand your motivation.

You also are saying 2 different things. Do you think it should correct to where you think it should be or crash? Pre boom numbers are more like a 600k house going down to 450-500k. Going to 250k means wherever you live is now worth shit as well regardless of what you paid for it.

Corrections are natural and like forest fires not all bad. Straight up crashes aren’t good. For anybody. My buddy in Vegas during the last crash sold his 750k house for 300k. Horrible crash. Completely understandable crash. Your example is that bad. Do you really find so many similarities from then to now? Because I don’t.

This all depends on where you consider "where it belongs" is. Keep in mind the housing market is well above where it was at the peak of the pre '08 boom. We might get rollback, but then it will start rolling forward again. The only people who'll get burned are those who buy at the peak and sell in the trough.

Also, a lot of the run up we're seeing is cheap money chasing assets. Do you see the government yanking the chain on the money supply? I don't.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
It is going to get interesting when the markets goes back down to where it belongs and all the folks that bought (does not matter whether cash or mortgage holder) come to the realization of the errors of their ways. Real interesting. It will happen sooner than later.
For example. Someone that paid $600k for something worth $250k. That will be life changing is a terrible way financially.

Not really ped, In many area's homes that as my example where a few years ago sold and were valued at $250k have recently sold for $600k. Or you could say $125k and recently sold for $400k or were $450k a few short years ago and have recently sold for $875k. These are not decades of appreciation like you are saying. These are real situations that have occurred in the market in recent times.

It is not going to take a much for many to take a real gut punch down the road fairly soon. Then we'll see what happens.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: old rugged cross,

In the DC area we hardly ever see a "SOLD" sign, goes straight from "Coming Soon" to "Under Contract." The only houses that have DoM over 3 are those that are undesirable at any price, or that are asking 50% to 100% over market.

We have very low inventory of homes for sale here right now.
Are the prices crazy high? Yes but.....I think we have massive inflation starting that few seem to mention so it's hard to tell. When materials and labor are so high and volatile, it's hard know what a house should be sometimes.
Nobody seems to talk about a $15 minimum wage anymore because you can't find anyone to work for that anymore.

I’m in Illinois so you would think it would be cooling here but our neighbor listed their house two weeks ago and at the first open house they had 5 offers over asking. The asking was 75k more than they paid 5 years ago. Not sure what the final sales price is yet.

In the SF Bay Area nothing is cooling off.

I just looked up my house because of this thread and according to the real estate web sites my house is worth $1 Million more than what I paid for it 20 years ago.

$300K more than the same exact house in my neighborhood sold for 4 months ago.

Yes, It's still insane out here.

Not cooling down in the Nashville area.

Our oldest child (daughter) and her husband are moving to Nashville with their 2 kids. Our son-in-law is an Actuary, and was hired by a smaller company in Brentwood, TN. They were up here this weekend, and during the weekend listed their house in Chattanooga while looking for a place in the Nashville/Brentwood area.
They had 5 offers on their Chatt house in 2 days. They agreed to sell their house for the listing price, as it was straightforward with no contigencies, etc. Three of the larger offers had questionable issues. And the listing price was $125K over what they paid about 4 years ago.

So, they made a bid on a house 10 minutes from our SIL's new office. It was $30K over the listing price, with an escalation clause. They didn't get this house, so they're still searching. The accepted offer was all cash, with no ispection.

We may have a 6 month old and a truly hard-headed 31 month old (who takes after her mom & her grandmother) moving in with us...

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
The overpriced homes in my neighborhood are still selling quickly. I'm actually thinking seriously about selling my condo, banking the money for now, and renting a house for a bit until prices hopefully come down. The money I could get for my place is almost too much to pass up.

I completely understand and frankly think that specific market is ripe for a pull back. (One I kinda follow as I'd like to end up there).
As an old fart with several moves on his resume I'd offer one caution. Make super sure the wife is completely on board. My wife likes structure and her things her way. Me, it's largely a place to sleep. EVERY time we've made a big transition, she has never been really happy until we were resettled.
It just really stresses her out.

It's spotty. My S-I-L's realtor had an open house Saturday, some re-showings on Monday and was under contract with a cash offer yesterday.

I hope so. It’s definitely cooled slightly in the Wichita, KS area. Houses that are marked too high will sit, forcing price reductions. If it’s priced right it’ll usually be gone in a week.

Right now we’re under contract on a nice house but the inspection showed major issues with the deck and HVAC. Our realtor thinks the sellers will walk rather than play ball with trying to fix/offer an allowance due to the sun total of repairs needed (~$25k). Easier to re-list and try again with a buyer less apt to ask for repairs I guess.