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There are ways to protect your finances in a downturn without acting rashly
Spooked by the bear market and worried about what’s next, investors are looking for ways to shield their portfolios from more pain. Yet money moves made in fear can be bad ones, advisers and behavioral economists warn.

On Monday, the S&P 500 closed more than 20% down from recent highs, officially entering a bear market. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve approved the largest rate increase since 1994 in a bid to hit the brakes on rampant inflation.

Whether the economy is in a recession or entering one is still up for debate. But concern is high among some economists and Americans in general about the path of the economy. When the economy weakens, unemployment rises, wages become stagnant and spending slows.

For investors, this sense of doom and gloom can prompt questionable financial decisions with investments, debts and household budgets, said Michael Liersch, head of Wells Fargo’s advice and planning center.



“People go back to what feels good and familiar from a financial perspective, rather than what actually will help them,” Mr. Liersch said.

Here are three common mistakes advisers say to avoid when choosing how to defend your money in a possible downturn.

1. Panic selling
Individual investors tend to sell after an economic downturn is already priced into equity markets, said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. By selling at this time, investors are locking in their losses.

“This perfect bad timing can have negative consequences for building wealth,” she said.

Dana Menard, a financial planner in Maple Grove, Minn., knows several people who halted 401(k) contributions during the last recession to boost their take-home pay. Doing so may boost short-term cash flow, but people then miss out on their employer match contributions, essentially losing free money, he said. People also forget to resume contributions once markets start to recover and are missing out on gains because they have adjusted their lifestyle to a higher level of spending, said Mr. Menard.



Sticking your head in the sand isn’t an advisable strategy either, said Mr. Liersch, at Wells Fargo.

When looking, focus on how to rebalance your investment accounts by revisiting your target asset allocation and overall investment philosophy, said David Huebner, a financial planner in Fargo, N.D. Use tax-loss harvesting to reduce your tax liability by replacing assets that are down with similar investments. Should you have extra cash on hand, take advantage of a stock market downturn to buy stocks that are trading lower, he said.

In addition to checking your balances, it is important to check your state of mind, said Betty Wang, a financial planner in Denver.

How do I feel about this market? Can I stomach this in the future? Down markets and recessions are a fact of investing, she said. Do you need to make any changes to how and what you invest in? If you still can’t sleep at night, it is likely time to reconsider your asset allocation, said Ms. Wang.

2. Using up emergency savings to pay down debts
Paying off credit card debt is among the best things you can do when interest rates are rising and uncertain market conditions are ahead, but some people take paying down debt too far, says Thomas Blower, a financial planner in Grand Rapids, Mich.


See more...
If you use up too much of your savings by aggressively paying off debts with low interest rates, such as a 3% fixed-rate mortgage, you could find yourself short on cash during a downturn, said Mr. Blower.

Ted Halpern, a financial planner in Ashburn, Va., said one month of core expenses such as rent or a mortgage payment should be your zero balance in your checking account heading into a recession. Keep about three months’ additional expense reserves held in your savings account, he said.

Review the liquidity of your emergency fund, said Kyle McBrien, a financial planner at Betterment. I Bonds, inflation adjusted government-savings bonds, and certificates of deposit are popular because of rising interest rates, but many CDs have early withdrawal penalties and I Bonds must be held for at least 12 months.

People often lack lines of credit when downturns happen, said Shaun Melby, a financial planner in Nashville, Tenn. It is much easier to get a home-equity line of credit or personal line of credit when economic conditions are favorable, so consider securing those lines now if you’re worried about the possibility of a recession, he said. It is also usually cheaper than borrowing on a credit card.

3. Spending as if nothing has changed
Failure to reassess your budget and make frequent changes can leave you unprepared to adjust your spending during a downturn, said Curtis Crossland, a financial planner in Scottsdale, Ariz. Avoid spending more on nonessential items or signing up for new subscriptions and services, and look for ways to reduce optional expenses, he said.

Don’t add new fixed expenses, such as another car loan, if you can avoid it, he said. The idea is to keep your regular expenses as trim as possible.

Many people know what their income is but when it comes to what they spend, this number gets blurry, said Valerie Rivera, a financial planner in Chicago. Write out the necessary expenses needed to cover your life and cut any nonessentials, she said.

And waiting can pay off. During the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, Tara Unverzagt wanted to remodel her house. She started the prep work, finding an architect and putting away money for the project, but she waited until after the bust in 2000 to start the work that helped her get a better price, she said.

“If I can’t get the prices I want because the other side isn’t willing to negotiate, that’s usually a sign that I should wait until they are a little more hungry,” said Ms. Unverzagt, a financial planner in Torrance, Calif.
 
Posts: 17242 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fire begets Fire
Picture of SIGnified
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A long time ago, we used to call this common sense.

But two generations hence…





"Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
~Robert A. Heinlein
 
Posts: 26756 | Location: dughouse | Registered: February 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fighting the good fight
Picture of RogueJSK
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Yeah, that author sure used a lot of words just to say some pretty basic Personal Finance 101 common sense type stuff that applies regardless of current economic conditions...


1) Don't panic-sell in a down market to lock in your losses.

2) Keep a readily accessible 3-6 month emergency fund on hand.

3) Have a budget, track your spending, and spend less than you make.


Not exactly rocket surgery, but we all know that the world ain't exactly filled with rocket surgeons.
 
Posts: 32521 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Shall Not Be Infringed
Picture of nhracecraft
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Why do SO MANY think that everyone selling in the current market or contemplating doing so is, or would be selling at a loss? This is NOT necessarily 'Panic Selling'. If one believes that market is headed downward, possible in a SIGNIFICANT way (it's hard to imagine anything else currently!), they could very likely could be locking in gains with plans to buy back in at a lower price later. That's NOT stupid by ANY means...In fact it could be considered Wise Investing. Wink

Cost Basis Matters!


____________________________________________________________

If Some is Good, and More is Better.....then Too Much, is Just Enough !!
Trump 2024....Save America!
"May Almighty God bless the United States of America" - parabellum 7/26/20
Live Free or Die!
 
Posts: 8909 | Location: New Hampshire | Registered: October 29, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fire begets Fire
Picture of SIGnified
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I’m buying as soon as it gets low enough





"Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
~Robert A. Heinlein
 
Posts: 26756 | Location: dughouse | Registered: February 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Just because you can,
doesn't mean you should
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Yeah, that author sure used a lot of words just to say some pretty basic Personal Finance 101 common sense type stuff that applies regardless of current economic conditions...


1) Don't panic-sell in a down market to lock in your losses.

2) Keep a readily accessible 3-6 month emergency fund on hand.

3) Have a budget, track your spending, and spend less than you make.


Not exactly rocket surgery, but we all know that the world ain't exactly filled with rocket surgeons.


"said Michael Liersch, head of Wells Fargo’s advice and planning center."



Look more closely and you will understand the article's intentions. They are not to give good advice to the consumer. Follow the money.

A Wells Fargo employee wrote this. They want you to keep as much as possible in their bank, or in funds that provide management fees to them.
Stay the course is the message.

Anyone that still deals with Wells Fargo with their terrible and unfriendly service, ultra high fee structure and their lying and cheating of customers deserves what they get.
I had the misfortune of briefly ending up there when my former bank was absorbed during the banking crisis of '08 and the contrast between doing business with them and a legitimate bank was night and day.


___________________________
Avoid buying ChiCom/CCP products whenever possible.
 
Posts: 9520 | Location: NE GA | Registered: August 22, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Mensch
Picture of kz1000
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My plan is to retire in 11 years, trying to ride this one out. Contributing the same amount to my 401k & Roth IRA [hopefully getting more value over time]. Getting 2 dental implants in July and buying out my car lease late next year is the fly in the ointment. Every extra cent I can pay towards my teeth [not credit card] to keep my tier 1 FICO score.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Yidn, shreibt un fershreibt"

"The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind."
-Bomber Harris
 
Posts: 16120 | Location: Ivorydale | Registered: January 21, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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I’m buying as soon as it gets low enough[/QUOTE]
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Let me know when they ring the bell.
 
Posts: 17242 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
I Deal In Lead
Picture of Flash-LB
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
There are ways to protect your finances in a downturn without acting rashly
Spooked by the bear market and worried about what’s next, investors are looking for ways to shield their portfolios from more pain. Yet money moves made in fear can be bad ones, advisers and behavioral economists warn.

On Monday, the S&P 500 closed more than 20% down from recent highs, officially entering a bear market. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve approved the largest rate increase since 1994 in a bid to hit the brakes on rampant inflation.

Whether the economy is in a recession or entering one is still up for debate. But concern is high among some economists and Americans in general about the path of the economy. When the economy weakens, unemployment rises, wages become stagnant and spending slows.

For investors, this sense of doom and gloom can prompt questionable financial decisions with investments, debts and household budgets, said Michael Liersch, head of Wells Fargo’s advice and planning center.



“People go back to what feels good and familiar from a financial perspective, rather than what actually will help them,” Mr. Liersch said.

Here are three common mistakes advisers say to avoid when choosing how to defend your money in a possible downturn.

1. Panic selling
Individual investors tend to sell after an economic downturn is already priced into equity markets, said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. By selling at this time, investors are locking in their losses.

“This perfect bad timing can have negative consequences for building wealth,” she said.

Dana Menard, a financial planner in Maple Grove, Minn., knows several people who halted 401(k) contributions during the last recession to boost their take-home pay. Doing so may boost short-term cash flow, but people then miss out on their employer match contributions, essentially losing free money, he said. People also forget to resume contributions once markets start to recover and are missing out on gains because they have adjusted their lifestyle to a higher level of spending, said Mr. Menard.



Sticking your head in the sand isn’t an advisable strategy either, said Mr. Liersch, at Wells Fargo.

When looking, focus on how to rebalance your investment accounts by revisiting your target asset allocation and overall investment philosophy, said David Huebner, a financial planner in Fargo, N.D. Use tax-loss harvesting to reduce your tax liability by replacing assets that are down with similar investments. Should you have extra cash on hand, take advantage of a stock market downturn to buy stocks that are trading lower, he said.

In addition to checking your balances, it is important to check your state of mind, said Betty Wang, a financial planner in Denver.

How do I feel about this market? Can I stomach this in the future? Down markets and recessions are a fact of investing, she said. Do you need to make any changes to how and what you invest in? If you still can’t sleep at night, it is likely time to reconsider your asset allocation, said Ms. Wang.

2. Using up emergency savings to pay down debts
Paying off credit card debt is among the best things you can do when interest rates are rising and uncertain market conditions are ahead, but some people take paying down debt too far, says Thomas Blower, a financial planner in Grand Rapids, Mich.


See more...
If you use up too much of your savings by aggressively paying off debts with low interest rates, such as a 3% fixed-rate mortgage, you could find yourself short on cash during a downturn, said Mr. Blower.

Ted Halpern, a financial planner in Ashburn, Va., said one month of core expenses such as rent or a mortgage payment should be your zero balance in your checking account heading into a recession. Keep about three months’ additional expense reserves held in your savings account, he said.

Review the liquidity of your emergency fund, said Kyle McBrien, a financial planner at Betterment. I Bonds, inflation adjusted government-savings bonds, and certificates of deposit are popular because of rising interest rates, but many CDs have early withdrawal penalties and I Bonds must be held for at least 12 months.

People often lack lines of credit when downturns happen, said Shaun Melby, a financial planner in Nashville, Tenn. It is much easier to get a home-equity line of credit or personal line of credit when economic conditions are favorable, so consider securing those lines now if you’re worried about the possibility of a recession, he said. It is also usually cheaper than borrowing on a credit card.

3. Spending as if nothing has changed
Failure to reassess your budget and make frequent changes can leave you unprepared to adjust your spending during a downturn, said Curtis Crossland, a financial planner in Scottsdale, Ariz. Avoid spending more on nonessential items or signing up for new subscriptions and services, and look for ways to reduce optional expenses, he said.

Don’t add new fixed expenses, such as another car loan, if you can avoid it, he said. The idea is to keep your regular expenses as trim as possible.

Many people know what their income is but when it comes to what they spend, this number gets blurry, said Valerie Rivera, a financial planner in Chicago. Write out the necessary expenses needed to cover your life and cut any nonessentials, she said.

And waiting can pay off. During the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, Tara Unverzagt wanted to remodel her house. She started the prep work, finding an architect and putting away money for the project, but she waited until after the bust in 2000 to start the work that helped her get a better price, she said.

“If I can’t get the prices I want because the other side isn’t willing to negotiate, that’s usually a sign that I should wait until they are a little more hungry,” said Ms. Unverzagt, a financial planner in Torrance, Calif.


Excellent advise
 
Posts: 10626 | Location: Gilbert Arizona | Registered: March 21, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
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These aren't normal times. Go with your gut and pray about it. There is also nothing wrong with selling stocks and investing in food and other supplies, which Peter Schiff has been telling people to do for a while. I'd rather be sitting on the things I need than cash (within reason).
 
Posts: 7934 | Registered: September 29, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Res ipsa loquitur
Picture of BB61
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Yeah, that author sure used a lot of words just to say some pretty basic Personal Finance 101 common sense type stuff that applies regardless of current economic conditions...


1) Don't panic-sell in a down market to lock in your losses.

2) Keep a readily accessible 3-6 month emergency fund on hand.

3) Have a budget, track your spending, and spend less than you make.


Not exactly rocket surgery, but we all know that the world ain't exactly filled with rocket surgeons.


^^^^^^
Well said!!!


__________________________

 
Posts: 12468 | Registered: October 13, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
posted Hide Post
Market advice from Donny Donowitz...

 
Posts: 107619 | Registered: January 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
posted Hide Post
quote:

3. Spending as if nothing has changed
We haven't yet changed our spending significantly, but we're not big spenders in the first place.

That being said: What discretionary spending in which we have engaged will likely be curtailed RSN.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26009 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Green grass and
high tides
Picture of old rugged cross
posted Hide Post
I agree with Ackks, we are entering unchartered waters. I am pretty sure conventional wisdom maybe for the most part, is out the window. I did everything I knew leading up to this months ago. What little we have to live on in retirement is vanishing even so. And do not believe it will ever come back in my lifetime. Cost's are going to continue to rise where most will not be able to pay. Taxes, goods and services, utilities, fuel, healthcare, etc. You name it.

Imho all of this is a plan to move this country away from it foundation.

We could be one disaster (natural or otherwise) away from a total collapse. Unlike one we have ever seen in our history. I sure hope not and that I am wrong. But things feel on the verge to me.

All we can do is carry on best we can.

Dow is under 30k and headed south.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: old rugged cross,



"Practice like you want to play in the game"
 
Posts: 19193 | Registered: September 21, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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Been maxing out my 401k for years now. May change percentages so more goes toward domestic stocks I Will be 48 in a few months so 15-20+ years before I can draw it out.

Still not keen to prepay a 2.5% fixed rate mortgage and less enthused every day as rates go up. Housing price increases seems to have smoothed out in my area. With homes trading at asking or even less. As rates go up further hopefully prices come down, I would like to get a rental here.

If your headed to troubled times and you think your job may not be 100% safe I wouldn’t prepay debt, add more debt and maybe hit pause on your 401k contributions over the company match and stack cash.
 
Posts: 4773 | Location: Florida Panhandle  | Registered: November 23, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
blame canada
Picture of AKSuperDually
posted Hide Post
quote:
Anyone that still deals with Wells Fargo with their terrible and unfriendly service, ultra high fee structure and their lying and cheating of customers deserves what they get.

This is some of the best advice in this entire thread.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The trouble with our Liberal friends...is not that they're ignorant, it's just that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan, 1964
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Arguing with some people is like playing chess with a pigeon. It doesn't matter how good I am at chess, the pigeon will just take a shit on the board, strut around knocking over all the pieces and act like it won.. and in some cases it will insult you at the same time." DevlDogs55, 2014 Big Grin
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

www.rikrlandvs.com
 
Posts: 13957 | Location: On the mouth of the great Kenai River | Registered: June 24, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by nhracecraft:
Why do SO MANY think that everyone selling in the current market or contemplating doing so is, or would be selling at a loss? This is NOT necessarily 'Panic Selling'. If one believes that market is headed downward, possible in a SIGNIFICANT way (it's hard to imagine anything else currently!), they could very likely could be locking in gains with plans to buy back in at a lower price later. That's NOT stupid by ANY means...In fact it could be considered Wise Investing. Wink

Cost Basis Matters!


I 100% agree with this post.
 
Posts: 7560 | Registered: October 31, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of grumpy1
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High inflation and over $30 trillion in national debt. What could possibly go wrong?

BTW during the last high inflation period around 1980 the debt was around $900 billion and 32 percent of GDP. Now the debt is around 124 percent of GDP. That was also the year that Volcker raised fed rate to 20%. Eek Eek Eek

https://www.thebalance.com/nat...major-events-3306287
 
Posts: 9747 | Location: Northern Illinois | Registered: March 20, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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With Biden's knack for making the absolute worst possible economic decisions, anyone who is not in a "panic" selling mode does not fully understand the situation.

This week's attack on the major oil companies reminds me of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. I don't think the market has fully priced in the decline to come.


----------------------------------------------------
Dances with Crabgrass
 
Posts: 2183 | Location: East Virginia | Registered: October 12, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Don't Panic
Picture of joel9507
posted Hide Post
Here's a non-paywalled link to the OP article, from yesterday's Wall Street Journal: WSJ link
It's good to keep perspective.

Stocks are one of the few things that, when they get cheaper, people seem to want less of them. Imagine that ammo got 20% cheaper....wouldn't that be time to buy and stack? Wink
 
Posts: 15032 | Location: North Carolina | Registered: October 15, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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