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Fighting the good fight
Picture of RogueJSK
posted
An interesting piece from https://thehill.com/opinion/in...-us-force-repayment/

quote:
Every country should pay its sovereign debt. Default, we are told, is not an option. But has anyone told China?

The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People’s Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.

Successive U.S. administrations have chosen to sidestep this fact, allowing business and trade with China to proceed as normal. Now that the relationship with China has soured and the People’s Republic of China has become the greatest adversarial threat to the U.S. and Western security, policymakers should revisit this appalling failure of justice.

Some history is in order. Before 1949, the government of the Republic of China (ROC) issued a large volume of long-term sovereign gold-denominated bonds, secured by Chinese tax revenues, to private investors and governments for the construction of infrastructure and financing of governmental activities. Put simply, the China we know today would not have been possible absent these bond offerings.

In 1938, during its conflict with Japan, the ROC defaulted on its sovereign debt. After the military victory of the communists, the ROC government fled to Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China was eventually recognized internationally as the successor government of China. Under well-established international law, the “successor government” doctrine holds that the current government of China, led by the Chinese Communist Party, is responsible for repayment of the defaulted bonds.

A private group of American citizens holds a large quantity of these gold-denominated bonds. This citizen-led group, the American Bondholders Foundation (ABF), serves as trustee with power of attorney for some 20,000 bondholders, whose bonds are valued at well more than $1 trillion.

Then-U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s tough negotiation stance on the return of Hong Kong to China led to a British settlement agreement on these same Chinese bonds in 1987. Thatcher said that for China to have access to U.K. capital markets, it had to honor the defaulted Chinese sovereign debt held by British subjects. Faced with that stark choice, China agreed.

Unfortunately, the U.S. failed to take such a common-sense stance. To this day, China has had access to U.S. capital markets while openly rejecting its sovereign debt obligations to American bondholders.

Lest anyone wonder about the age of these bonds, it is irrelevant. What matters is that this is a sovereign obligation. As recently as 2010, the German government made its last payment for reparations from World War I. In 2015 Great Britain made payments on bonds issuances that dated from the 18th century.

The Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have a unique opportunity to enforce the well-established international rule that governments must honor their debts. Like the U.K. did in 1987, the U.S. must view the repayment of China’s sovereign debt as essential to its national security interests. In doing so, the U.S. government should undertake one or both of two actions currently being discussed by members of Congress.

The first would be to acquire the Chinese bonds held by the ABF and utilize them to offset (partially or in whole) the $850 billion-plus of U.S. Treasurys owned by China (reducing up to $95 million in daily interest paid to China). This would lower the national debt and put the U.S. in a better financial position globally.

The second would be to pass legislation that requires China to abide by international norms and rules of finance, trade and commerce. This would include abiding by the transparency rules of capital markets and exchanges and ending its practices of exclusionary settlement, discriminatory payments, selective default, and rejection of the successor government doctrine of settled international law. If China fails to meet those obligations, it would be barred, together with its state-controlled entities, from access to all U.S. dollar-denominated bond markets and exchanges.

This, again, is just common sense and would be the very thing the Chinese government would do if the situation were reversed.

Over the last two decades, there has been recurrent bipartisan support in Congress for bondholders to address China’s default with several congressional resolutions. Despite this, successive U.S. administrations have been silent on this issue, choosing to kick this can down the road, assuming that China would eventually liberalize and embrace Western norms and values.

This failure to act needs to end now.

Given that relations with China have deteriorated and there is bipartisan agreement on the threat from China, this matter can finally be acted upon by both Congress and the Biden administration. Getting settlement on this defaulted debt is not only right and just for the bondholders but, if done correctly, could also be a huge win for the U.S. taxpayer.



I like the idea of potentially using China's unpaid $1T debt to offset our own $850B debts held by China. It would not only save the US $95M in daily interest, but getting us out from under that could also free our hands to potentially take more forceful actions to counter China's growing threat without having to worry about them calling in our debts, as is often mentioned as a concern.

Of course, that plan would require raising the funds needed to purchase the $1T in debt from the current holders... But in the grand scheme, that $1T would eventually pay for itself in ~29 years using the $95M per day in saved interest. And like most instances where defaulted debt is purchased from another holder, they can likely acquire it for pennies on the dollar, which would lower the total cost from the full $1T.


However, the unmentioned complication here is that, since this is apparently all pre-PRC debt assumed by the PRC from the ROC, forcing this issue with the PRC would signal to our ally Taiwan (who holds themselves out to be the true ROC) that their claim to China is less legitimate. So there's another international relations complication to this quagmire too. But considering the US has formally recognized the PRC as the government of China since 1979, that may be moot nowadays.
 
Posts: 33428 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
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quote:
Originally posted by RogueJSK:
And like most instances where defaulted debt is purchased from another holder, they can likely acquire it for pennies on the dollar, which would lower the total cost from the full $1T.
It is likely that many (most?) of the current bondholders already did that. It is possible that few would be willing to sell cheap. Add in the shrewd business acumen of the federal government and the taxpayer should consider themselves well served if the government doesn’t pay a significant premium over the face value of the bonds.
Of course since the government will likely turn to the fed’s printing press to borrow the money, $1T isn’t a significant hurdle.

The current administration (being bought and paid for by China) is unlikely to take any action. However, if our military has been sufficiently weakened to make coming to Taiwan’s imprudent, if even possible, one response to China making a move against Taiwan would be to demand the PRC pay on the bonds.

It will sure be nice if the next election goes differently than the last. It would be nice to again have a President with enough of a pair to do something about this and enough brain cells to think it through and decide the right approach.
 
Posts: 7211 | Location: Lost, but making time. | Registered: February 23, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Just because you can,
doesn't mean you should
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The sooner we decouple everything we can from China and the CCP, the better.


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Posts: 9978 | Location: NE GA | Registered: August 22, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
No More
Mr. Nice Guy
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I cannot see how there is any direct benefit to the taxpayer for the federal government to acquire the bonds.

Those bonds are debt owed to private citizens by China. If the government buys out the citizens it exchanges cash for bonds which could have been used instead to buy back US bonds (debt) held by China.

So there is no net benefit to the taxpayer.

The private citizens holding the Chinese bonds get made whole, so they win.

The total ineptness of our government to win may result in very unfavorable terms on both transactions. We may pay far more to buy the Chinese bonds than the Chinese will allow to be exchanged against our bonds.
 
Posts: 9846 | Location: On the mountain off the grid | Registered: February 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fighting the good fight
Picture of RogueJSK
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quote:
Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
Those bonds are debt owed to private citizens by China. If the government buys out the citizens it exchanges cash for bonds which could have been used instead to buy back US bonds (debt) held by China.


Unless the bearers of these defaulted bonds are willing to accept a lesser value. (Like a doctor's office selling a defaulted medical debt to a collection agency for less than face value.)

For example, acquire China's $1T debt for $500B and use it to offset our $850B debt, thus saving $350B plus no longer being under China's thumb and no longer being subject to $95M in daily interest.

A group of private citizens has little means to compel China to pay up or come to some other compensation agreement, compared to the US government.
 
Posts: 33428 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
No More
Mr. Nice Guy
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RogueJSK:
quote:
Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
Those bonds are debt owed to private citizens by China. If the government buys out the citizens it exchanges cash for bonds which could have been used instead to buy back US bonds (debt) held by China.


Unless the bearers of these defaulted bonds are willing to accept a lesser value. Like a doctor's office selling a defaulted medical debt to a collection agency for less than face value.

For example, acquire China's $1T debt for $500B and use it to offset our $850B debt, thus saving $350B plus no longer being under China's thumb and no longer being subject to $95M in daily interest.

A group of private citizens has little means to compel China to pay up, compared to the US government.


That would be great. But I expect the geniuses in DC would do the opposite. They'd pay full face value for the Chinese bonds plus accrued interest owed the bond holders. Say $1T total. Then the Chinese would negotiate a lower value, only exchanging $500B in US bonds. Our government would lose half a trillion $, and still be paying interest on $350B in bonds held by the Chinese.

Except for DJT, our government has been terrible at playing hardball with foreign powers.
 
Posts: 9846 | Location: On the mountain off the grid | Registered: February 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Posts: 16311 | Location: Florida | Registered: June 23, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Raptorman
Picture of Mars_Attacks
posted Hide Post
China is confiscating savings and arresting debtors at this time.

Their real estate market bubble Ponzi Scheme has collapsed and everything is falling with it.


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Eeewwww, don't touch it!
Here, poke at it with this stick.
 
Posts: 34566 | Location: North, GA | Registered: October 09, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His diet consists of black
coffee, and sarcasm.
Picture of egregore
posted Hide Post
quote:
China is in default on a trillion dollars in debt to US bondholders

As if they would care about that. They'll do as they please and screw the bondholders.
 
Posts: 29038 | Location: Johnson City, TN | Registered: April 28, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
blame canada
Picture of AKSuperDually
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quote:
Originally posted by 220-9er:
The sooner we decouple everything we can from China and the CCP, the better.

THIS bears repeating. Just rip the bandaid.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The trouble with our Liberal friends...is not that they're ignorant, it's just that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan, 1964
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Arguing with some people is like playing chess with a pigeon. It doesn't matter how good I am at chess, the pigeon will just take a shit on the board, strut around knocking over all the pieces and act like it won.. and in some cases it will insult you at the same time." DevlDogs55, 2014 Big Grin
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Posts: 14008 | Location: On the mouth of the great Kenai River | Registered: June 24, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
The Ice Cream Man
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I think the bigger issue may be how that works out with recognition of Taiwan.

My guess is Taiwan claims to be the correct payor of those bonds, but lacks the resources to pay them/isn’t willing to pay them off to prove a point.

IOW, we are a nation founded by philosophy, which has enshrouded that philosophy as our sovereign. We don’t make sense without it.

The UK is a relatively free dictatorship, which exists to serve a limited gene pool.

It’s a friend, at times, but it does not serve the same philosophy.

But the article is a good try - I wonder if it was written by a bond holder/per the direction of one.
 
Posts: 6030 | Location: Republic of Ice Cream, Low Country, SC. | Registered: May 24, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Power is nothing
without control
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Aglifter:
…But the article is a good try - I wonder if it was written by a bond holder/per the direction of one.


That was my first thought after reading. The bond holding group would very much like to sell the US public its uncollectable debt. No thanks.

- Bret
 
Posts: 2479 | Location: OH | Registered: March 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RogueJSK:


However, the unmentioned complication here is that, since this is apparently all pre-PRC debt assumed by the PRC from the ROC, forcing this issue with the PRC would signal to our ally Taiwan (who holds themselves out to be the true ROC) that their claim to China is less legitimate. So there's another international relations complication to this quagmire too. But considering the US has formally recognized the PRC as the government of China since 1979, that may be moot nowadays.


That's the first thought that came to mind. If China were to pay back the bonds and the US accepts, that's saying Taiwan is a province of China.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20248 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ugly Bag of
Mostly Water
Picture of ridgerat
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Another thought:

The bondholders work out with China to pay back just $500billion.

Then the US government agrees to pay China only $500billion of the 850.

China is paid off, bonholders are paid off, and US govt owes only half what they did, so interest payments are much lower.



Endowment Life Member, NRA • Member of FPC, GOA, 2AF & Arizona Citizens Defense League
 
Posts: 2890 | Location: Tucson Sector | Registered: March 25, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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