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A question for tatortodd and other O&G guys, particularly on the upstream production side of the equation. All things being ideal, just how much more oil could the US squeeze out of the ground, say in the next 12-36 months? Let's assume $60-90/barrel prices, rig availability, pipeline capacity in place, federal and state permitting is optimized, and access to capital is also ideal. Current levels are 11.6M to 12.0M BOPD, even with Sleepy Joe in office. I'm curious with OPEC+ announcing a 2M cutback (world production appears to be around 80M barrels oil/day), could the US get to 14-16M BOPD? P229 | ||
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| Just because you can, doesn't mean you should |
We'd do a lot better if we have a long term plan that didn't get government interference based on which party is in power. The private ventures that actually have to own and operate the means of production have to read the tea leaves and constantly adjust for the possibilities. No such problem in many of the other oil producing countries. That uncertainty discourages the longer term planning that would be most efficient for our domestic production. According to Forbes, the highest BPD was 13 million so under the right circumstances it would seem those numbers are possible. https://www.forbes.com/sites/r...ion/?sh=6fc2214b6b6f ___________________________ Avoid buying ChiCom/CCP products whenever possible. | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
That's the problem. The greenie socialists control the Dem party and want it all stopped. They are stupid, short sighted, and self destructive. But they represent half the population. It's not just producing crude either. It's refinery capacity. My daughter works as an engineer in an oil refinery. In her opinion, and that of many other oil execs, we will never build another large scale oil refinery in the US. Ask yourself, what would be better for this country? Another trip to the moon? Or another oil refinery? "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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If that rocket included all current elected Dem's and their supporters, then the trip to the moon.  ----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter | |||
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| in the end karma always catches up |
I read an article a few weeks ago while I was trying to figure out the disparity in price between gas and diesel. The article really focuses on the loss of refinery capacity over the last couple of decades. It basically said that even if we produced at maximum capacity the refinerys couldn’t keep up. " The people shall have a right to bear arms, for the defense of themselves and the State" Art 1 Sec 32 Indiana State Constitution YAT-YAS | |||
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It's been a while since I studied it but historically refinery capacity has been the big constraint. Last I looked it's been years since a new refinery has been built. Only upgrades to existing facilities mainly due to regulatory requirements and NIMBY attitudes. | |||
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I've heard that as well. If it's true we're screwed, sorta. Unless common sense prevails again. Lover of the US Constitution Wile E. Coyote School of DIY Disaster | |||
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| A teetotaling beer aficionado  |
I've not researched this but the one thing I can fall back on is; just before Trump left office, it was declared we where energy independent with no need to buy foreign oil, and actually comfortably selling excess to friendly countries and our strategic reserves were overflowing. Men fight for liberty and win it with hard knocks. Their children, brought up easy, let it slip away again, poor fools. And their grandchildren are once more slaves. -D.H. Lawrence | |||
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Production is not the issue Required Permits to drill new holes (.gov hiding behind the “we opened up all the leases) And refinery capability (hasn’t been a new refinery built in decades) current refinery’s set up for heavy dirty crude and not the light sweet crude we have the most of domestically Are the 2 biggest issues ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Live today as if it may be your last and learn today as if you will live forever | |||
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| Just because you can, doesn't mean you should |
Simple and true. What’s not to like? ___________________________ Avoid buying ChiCom/CCP products whenever possible. | |||
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Drill Here, Drill Now |
I wish to remain employed so I'll only post from publicly available sources (e.g EIA). A picture tells a thousand words and the pictured graph speaks volumes about US domestic production not being where we were before COVID:  We've been at 13.0M so that's achievable. EIA's short-term energy outlook (STEO) thru 2023 will next be published next week, and the longer term EIA report is from prior to Russia invading Ukraine (i.e. not worth reading and next one is Feb '23). However, STEO from a month ago is forecasting: Industry news and local Houston news is full of stories about Gulf Coast refineries are building / have built more capacity to refine West Texas and New Mexico crude oil. Pipelines have been built to get West Texas and New Mexico crude oil to the refineries. When looking at refining capacity on EIA's site in same time period as domestic oil production graph, I see: Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer. | |||
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