John Maglio grew up in South Florida and has lived there for a good part of his 49 years.

Now, he is leaving.

Maglio isn’t giving up on the state, but he is trying to sell his house in Boca Raton to move with his family inland, to Ocala, a rural town of 63,000 in central Florida. He was under contract there to buy a six-bedroom, six-bathroom, 4,600-square-foot home built in 2016 on 15½ acres in a gated community for about $2.1 million, some $400,000 less than the listing price of his house of a similar size on less than a quarter of an acre in Boca. But the sale on his Boca house fell through. Now, he and his family are on hold, staying at a rental in Ocala, still planning to buy a house.

The savings will be nice, and he wants to get away from congestion and development, but the main reason Maglio is moving is the weather. Living with the threat of hurricanes and storms has become a nuisance, he says. With every threat the family has to empty the freezer and fridge in case the power goes out, stock up on water and deal with closed roads.

“You can breathe a little easier here,” says Maglio, 49, a tech entrepreneur, about his new choice.



Scenes from Silver Spring State Park, just east of Ocala.
Florida gets 40% of the direct hits from hurricanes, significantly more than any other state, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. As the climate continues to warm, Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century are expected to have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes and be more intense, with higher peak winds and lower central pressures on average. And, all else equal, they will boost the coastal inundation levels associated with tropical cyclones, along with the rising sea level, according to an analysis based on a number of climate-modeling studies by Thomas Knutson, senior scientist for the NOAA and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Not all parts of Florida are equally at risk of natural disasters. The Wall Street Journal asked Climate Alpha—a company that uses AI to build forecasting models based on data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency related to past events, predictions of future weather, an analysis of local government disaster policies, and infrastructure, including hospital beds—to come up with a list of areas in Florida with the least combined risk from hurricanes, flooding and strong winds.

The winner for lowest risk of coastal flooding: Ocala, located in the center of the state, 82 miles from Orlando and 97 miles from Tampa. According to Climate Alpha, when accounting for a combination of high winds, drought and inland flooding, Ocala comes in third in the state, behind Lake City and Tallahassee. In fact, Ocala’s risk for inland flooding is lower than that of Lake City and Tallahassee.



Clockwise from top left: Billionaire John Malone and his horse farm in Ocala, where actor John Travolta built a home in 2002 in the Jumbolair development that offers private runways.
DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG NEWS (MALONE); RICH POLK/GETTY IMAGES (TRAVOLTA)
Once a center of citrus production, Ocala became a popular spot for thoroughbred horse farms in the 1950s. It is now known as one of the horse capitals of the world, with a billion-dollar World Equestrian Center developed in 2021. Tourist attractions include Ocala National Forest and Silver Springs State Park.

Billionaire John Malone owns a horse farm there, and actor John Travolta built a house in 2002 with a private airplane runway in a development called Jumbolair.

It isn’t that Ocala is immune to storms: Hurricane Irma hit the area in 2017, causing power outages and some flooding. But local officials say that by the time storms reach that far inland, the lose much of their momentum.

Ocala’s Risk for Hurricane Winds and Flooding
Climate risk score*

Ocala

100 miles

100 km

*The climate score averages the risk of hurricane winds, and inland and coastal flooding.
It is calculated using Core-Based Statistical Area, defined as containing an urban area with a nucleus population. The lower the score, the less the risk.
†Information at the CBSA level is an average of the Census Tract level, so statistical range varies

Source: Climate Alpha
Camille Bressange/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
There was some concern about the potential impact of Hurricane Idalia in August, but Ocala—about 100 feet above sea level—had no significant damage, and minor power outages were quickly restored, according to the Ocala Police Department.

Matt Varney, a broker with Ocala Horse Properties, says buyers are looking for an area where they don’t have to worry about hurricanes all the time. But they also are attracted to Ocala because it has less traffic and development, and prices are lower than many other parts of the state, he says. “People want to find an easier life,” says Varney.



From left: The World Equestrian Center is a major draw in Ocala, once better known for its citrus production. A new hotel is being built at the center.
Courtney Moody, a broker with NextHome Professional Realty in Ocala, says she has seen over the past few years an influx of buyers from South Florida and the Tampa area for that reason. “It’s for peace of mind,” she says.

Jo Anne and Ed Lewis moved to Bonita Springs, just north of Naples, from a suburb of Cincinnati, Ohio, almost 10 years ago. Ed Lewis, 78, was retiring as a CPA and the couple wanted to get away from cold weather. In 2014, they bought a condo in a gated golf community. Then in 2016, they bought a 2,300-square-foot, three-bedroom house with a pool in the same development, 6 miles from the beach, for $375,000, and settled in, thinking they wouldn’t move again.


Jo Anne and Ed Lewis recently signed a contract to buy a home in Ocala. PHOTO: JO ANNE AND ED LEWIS (FAMILY PHOTO)
But several years ago, the Lewises started to notice each other walking around hunched up with tense shoulders between June and November. They would start to check the weather online every day to track where storms were headed. They got through Hurricane Irma by huddling in their walk-in closet with a battery-powered radio, and enduring no power or internet for 11 days, something they feared they’d have to do again. “It’s on our minds all the time,” says Jo Anne Lewis, who is 68.

Their house wasn’t affected by Hurricane Ian in September 2022, but the resulting rebuilding effort has caused traffic to increase, doubling the time it takes them to get anywhere and making them loath to leave their gated community even in the off season, says the husband. Plus they say the influx of new residents since Covid has reduced overall courtesy.

The two also have endured a higher heat index in recent years, making it uncomfortable to go outside even to play golf or swim in their pool, they say. They still love their gated community in Bonita Springs, but they have had enough of the general area.

“It’s turned into a concrete jungle,” says Jo Anne Lewis. “It’s not what we moved to anymore.”



The Lewises are moving from their 2,300-square-foot, three-bedroom house with a pool in a gated golf community Bonita Springs, having recognized their growing stress over the weather.
JO ANNE AND ED LEWIS (2)
This past August, the couple took a vacation in Ocala, which they chose because a hurricane was heading toward the coast and they wanted to go somewhere safer.

They were struck by how much less crowded and less developed the area was than around Naples. They sold their Bonita Springs house for $825,000 and signed a contract to buy a similarly sized but brand-new house, with a pool, in the southwest area of Ocala in a gated golf community for $630,000.

The two are paying a combined deductible premium—one for home damage plus a separate one for hurricane damage—on their new home’s insurance of $6,000 a year, compared with a combined deductible premium of nearly $20,000 a year on their house in Bonita Springs (up from $6,000 a year when they first moved there).


Alexis Schweizer, 35, a therapist, and Heather Schweizer, 41, a neurologist, with their children inside the home they bought in Ocala.
Heather Schweizer, 41, a stroke neurologist, also appreciates the peace of mind she has in Ocala. She lived in Miami and Fort Lauderdale for four years while doing her residency. “When I was living in Fort Lauderdale, any time there was a hurricane forecast it was really scary. Here it’s just like a big thunderstorm,” says Schweizer, who, with her wife, Alexis Schweizer, 35, a therapist, bought a six-bedroom, five-bathroom, 4,000-square-foot home with a swimming pool on over half an acre in Ocala for $950,000 in December 2021. Another difference: “People smile in Ocala. It’s friendly,” she says.

Adrian Bell, who grew up in Ocala and is now a real-estate agent with Pegasus Realty, a brokerage firm started by his father, says a big magnet for Ocala buyers is the World Equestrian Center, which has luxury amenities that include a high-end hotel and fine dining. It was developed by the family of the late trucking magnate Ralph L. “Larry” Roberts Sr.

The center is now building a new hotel, shops and medical offices, and also bought a 950-acre property known as the Ocala Jockey Club for $10.5 million in 2021. It is proposing a second equestrian center with polo fields and a stadium, according to plans filed with Marion County.



The Schweizers bought their Ocala home in December 2021.

The home, which has space for a play area, has six bedrooms and five bathrooms.

The purchase price was $950,000.

The home is 4,000 square feet.

The property is on over half an acre and features an elaborate swimming pool.

Bell says the development has brought people from around Florida, in particular from Wellington, a village on the west side of Palm Beach County that for more than 15 years had been Florida’s equestrian sports center. “People are sick of the flooding there,” he says.



Insurance companies are boosting hurricane-coverage premiums in Florida. Some, such as Farmers Insurance, are pulling out of the state altogether. The average Florida premium has tripled in five years, according to the Insurance Information Institute. But the average premiums for homeowners in Marion County, where Ocala is located, have remained relatively low. As of March, it was $1,894 a year, according to the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. That compares with $5,665 in Miami Dade County, $5,710 in Palm Beach County, $5,519 in Broward County (Fort Lauderdale) and $7,584 in Monroe County (the Florida Keys). The only county in Florida with cheaper premiums than Marion was Sumter, just south of Ocala.


Emil Spadone keeps horses on his Ocala property.
Like the rest of Florida, where cities such as Miami and Tampa have experienced growth since the pandemic, Ocala has seen a rise in real-estate prices. The median price for luxury homes is up 18%, to $885,000, so far in 2023, according to Redfin. Vacant-land prices on the northwest side of Ocala, closest to the World Equestrian Center, are now going for about $100,000 an acre, double the price from a few years ago, real-estate agents say.

Despite the increase, homes in Ocala, especially at the higher end, aren’t as costly as in many other areas of Florida. For example, the median sales price of a luxury home there was $710,000 in the second quarter of 2023, versus $3 million in Boca Raton, $1.5 million in Tampa and $3.3 million in Wellington, according to data from Redfin.



Emil Spadone bought his first horse farm on 34 acres in Ocala for $340,000 in 1998. Last year, he bought an additional 80 acres for $1.3 million.
When there are hurricane warnings in other parts of the state, people flock to Ocala to rent houses, says Michael Polly, the president of Golden Ocala Real Estate, which is selling vacant land in the Golden Ocala Golf & Equestrian Club for about $1 million an acre. In advance of Hurricane Idalia in August, the air-conditioned stalls at the World Equestrian Center were filled with horses evacuated from other parts of the state, he says.

Some longer-term residents aren’t entirely happy with the development. Emil Spadone bought his horse farm on 34 acres in Ocala for $340,000 in 1998. At the time, he says, he wasn’t thinking about weather but has since realized how lucky he is that the area gets so little storm damage. Last year, he bought an additional 80 acres for $1.3 million. It is farther from town, because if he bought near his current property it would have cost closer to $2 million, he says. Plus, he has noticed more traffic and longer waits for restaurants in Ocala now. “I miss the old days,” he says.


Spadone says he enjoys the quiet of the area around his horse farm.
Write to Nancy Keates at Nancy.Keates@wsj.com

LINK: https://www.wsj.com/real-estat...anes-2a991853?page=1