One month ago, a chart from Convoy Investments went viral for showing that among all of the world's most famous asset bubbles, bitcoin was only lagging the infamous 17th century "Tulip Mania."

[Graph at link]

One month later, the price of bitcoin has exploded even higher, and so it is time to refresh where in the global bubble race bitcoin now stands, and also whether it has finally surpassed "Tulips."

Conveniently, overnight the former Bridgewater analysts Howard Wang and Robert Wu who make up Convoy, released the answer in the form of an updated version of their asset bubble chart. In the new commentary, Wang writes that the Bitcoin prices have again more than doubled since the last update, and "its price has now gone up over 17 times this year, 64 times over the last three years and superseded that of the Dutch Tulip’s climb over the same time frame."

That's right: as of this moment it is official that bitcoin is now the biggest bubble in history, having surpassed the Tulip Mania of 1634-1637.



And with that we can say that crypto pioneer Mike Novogratz was right once again when he said that "This is going to be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes." Which, of course, does not stop him from investing hundreds of millions in the space: when conceding that cryptos are the biggest bubble ever, "Novo" also said he expects bitcoin to hit $40,000 and ethereum to triple to $1,500.

"Bitcoin could be at $40,000 at the end of 2018. It easily could," Novogratz said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money." "Ethereum, which I think just touched $500 or is getting close, could be triple where it is as well."

As for Wang, here are some additional observations:

I continue this topic and discuss a main driver of bubbles. When we see a dramatic rise in asset prices, there is often an internal struggle between the two types of investors within us. The first is the value investor, “is this investment getting too expensive?” The second is the momentum investor, “am I missing out on a trend?” I believe the balance of these two approaches, both within ourselves and across a market, ultimately determines the propensity for bubble-like behavior. When there is a new or rapidly evolving market, our conviction in the value investor can weaken and the momentum investor can take over. Other markets that structurally lack a basis for valuation are even more susceptible to momentum swings because the main indicator of future value is the market’s perception of recent value.

We will publish the balance of Wang's full note "What causes asset bubbles?" shortly, but for now we just wanted to experience a moment of true zen serenity, knowing that we now stand in proximity to an asset bubble the magnitude of which has never before been observed by humanity. Thanks central banks!

Link

I took my bi-monthly gambling money and bought some coins Saturday. Doubled it already. Like 24/7 Roulette!

If I lose it, smeh, if I don't, It'll be a fun run! Plus I save 2 months worth of second-hand smoke to let my lungs get better!

Read a solid article about how bitcoin will crash but once it does and gets stabil and country adopts it will catch on and be the real deal since it cant be manipulated. Still a ways off from that but it seems quite probable.

For those playing the crypto bubble, don't do what Sir Issac Newton did and end up going broke.



Newton had a brilliant brain, but he had not studied the psychology of trading financial bubbles.

LINK about Newton and the South Sea bubble from Sovereign Man

From Jason Zweg’s commentaries with later versions of the Intelligent Investor:

"Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he 'could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.' Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003's] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words 'South Sea' in his presence."

And the bubble bursts....

Yeah, almost.

Trading was halted today after a 44% drop (to about 11,000), now back at 14,000 or so.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
And the bubble bursts....

Not any time soon...

quote:

Originally posted by DoctorSolo:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
And the bubble bursts....

Not any time soon...

What do you call a 47% drop in a matter of days?
I hope you don't call it a buying opportunity.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:

quote:

Originally posted by DoctorSolo:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
And the bubble bursts....

Not any time soon...

What do you call a 47% drop in a matter of days?
I hope you don't call it a buying opportunity.

It's a market correction. It should happen after huge spikes like the one last week. It will spike quite a few more times before the bust, which I do think will happen, just not the way people expect it to.

I wouldn't say that the Bitcoin phenomenon is over just yet, despite the 43% decline in the last week. I've just been buying gold, HODLing Goldmoney, and watching the crypto-currencies.

Here's ZeroHedges summary about what happened today: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...ency-heatmap-sea-red

quote:

Originally posted by DoctorSolo:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:

quote:

Originally posted by DoctorSolo:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
And the bubble bursts....

Not any time soon...

What do you call a 47% drop in a matter of days?
I hope you don't call it a buying opportunity.

It's a market correction. It should happen after huge spikes like the one last week. It will spike quite a few more times before the bust, which I do think will happen, just not the way people expect it to.

They never do.

The unexpected always happens when you least expect it.

Ripple coming for bitcoin now the #2 coin for market cap. Partnered with banks and CC companies. Gonna be a fun ride!

Delqlyn, how in the world do I go about buying bitcoin or litecoin?

Nothing I research makes any sense.

Tulips! Tulips for sale!

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
Delqlyn, how in the world do I go about buying bitcoin or litecoin?

Nothing I research makes any sense.

You have to use real money. Let that be your first clue.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Tulips! Tulips for sale!

Exactly.

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
Delqlyn, how in the world do I go about buying bitcoin or litecoin?

Nothing I research makes any sense.

You have to use real money. Let that be your first clue.

What kind of money?

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
Delqlyn, how in the world do I go about buying bitcoin or litecoin?

Nothing I research makes any sense.

theres quite a few ways but coinbase is probably the easiest.


Crazy Bitcoin already surpassed Tulip Mania bubble! I guess maybe thats global scale vs semi regional?

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
What do you call a 47% drop in a matter of days?
I hope you don't call it a buying opportunity.

quote:

Originally posted by DoctorSolo:
It's a market correction. It should happen after huge spikes like the one last week. It will spike quite a few more times before the bust, which I do think will happen, just not the way people expect it to.

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:
They never do.

The unexpected always happens when you least expect it.

Here is WHAT HAPPENED, well generally. GBTC, The Bitcoin Investment Trust which is traded on pink sheets, was trading well over Net Asset Value (NAV). Arbitrage occurred going long Bitcoin and shorting GBTC. When GBTC got near NAV, Bitcoin was sold in size and and GBTC shorts were covered. And then GDAX, a digital token exchange, broke under the volume of Bitcoin activity. I have no idea what part the launching of the CME Bitcoin futures played in the crash / buying opportunity, but it seems unlikely that the launch of Bitcoin futures just before the "dip" was a coincidence.

Bitcoin is dead. Ripple to the moon!