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Which begs the question: why would Trump even want to be in charge when the house of cards finally comes crashing down. Let Kamala have it...

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Ask any budget expert in Washington to explain the ballooning deficit and debt, and Social Security and Medicare will be high on the list of causes. That’s wrong. The real driver, the elephant in the room, is means-tested social-welfare spending—Medicaid, food stamps, refundable tax credits, Supplemental Security Income, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, federal housing subsidies and almost 100 other programs whose eligibility is limited to those below an income threshold.

True, Social Security and Medicare are a drain on general revenue and will become big fiscal problems if not reformed. But they aren’t the major source of our current fiscal crisis, because both are financed in large part by dedicated payroll taxes. Since its inception, Social Security has produced cash surpluses 60% of the time. In 2023 Social Security payroll taxes funded 88.9% of benefits. The cost of Social Security’s Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance program, net of payroll tax collections, was only $88.1 billion. Medicare payroll taxes and premiums funded 49.7% of Medicare expenditures, producing a net cost of $509 billion.
Means-tested social-welfare spending totaled $1.6 trillion in 2023. Welfare spending now absorbs an astonishing 72.6% of unobligated general revenue (total revenue net of Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes and premiums and mandatory interest on the public debt) and is larger than the claims against unobligated general revenue by Social Security (4.1%), Medicare (23.5%) and defense (37.2%) combined.

Since funding for the War on Poverty ramped up in 1967, welfare payments received by the average work-age household in the bottom quintile of income recipients has risen from $7,352 in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars to $64,700 in 2022, the last year with available household income data. This 780% increase was 9.2 times the rise in income earned by the average American household.
Since 1967 defense spending has fallen from 68% of unobligated general revenue to 37.2% in 2023, almost a mirror image of the growth in means-tested welfare benefits. As defense spending plummeted, swords weren’t beaten into plowshares, which would have increased economic growth and wages, but were instead used to fund welfare payments. As a result, the U.S. today redistributes a larger share of its gross domestic product, 29.4%, through transfers and taxes than any developed country in the world except France with 30.1%.

After counting all transfer payments as income to the recipients and taxes as income lost by taxpayers, and adjusting for household size, the average households in the bottom, second and middle quintiles all have roughly the same incomes—despite dramatic differences in work effort. With the explosion of means-tested transfer payments, the portion of prime work-age persons in the bottom quintile who actually work has fallen to 36% from 68%. In the second quintile, households with a work-age adult who actually works have declined to 85% from 90%. While work effort fell in the bottom two quintiles, the percentage of middle-income households with a prime work-age person who works has risen to 92% from 86%.
The injustice of this government-created income equality is palpable. For about the same income, 2.4 times as many work-age persons in the second quintile actually work and on average work 85% more hours than those in the bottom quintile. And 2.5 times as many work-age middle-income persons actually work and work on average 108% more hours.

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Demand for reform would be even stronger if the public understood how generous social-welfare benefits are. In reporting household income, the Census Bureau doesn’t count 88% of transfer payments made to households that are defined as being poor. The census doesn’t count refundable tax credits (for which the beneficiary receives a check from the Treasury), food-stamp debit cards, free medical care through Medicaid, or benefits from about 100 other federal transfer payments as income to welfare recipients. When those benefits are counted as income, 80% of those who are today counted as being poor are no longer poor, and almost half have incomes equivalent to American middle-income earners.

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Requiring all able-bodied Americans to work as a condition for receiving welfare would do more than reduce the deficit. It would bring people back into the economy, the source of prosperity and economic independence. A job is the best nutrition, housing, healthcare, education, child-care and general welfare program. That welfare reform isn’t a major issue in the November elections is a missed opportunity to improve the well-being of low-income families and the overall economic health of the nation.


Mr. Gramm, a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Arrington, a Texas Republican, is chairman of the House Budget Committee. John Early and Mike Solon contributed to this article.

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Originally posted by fischtown7:
Okay, just checked and lets do some simple math. U.S. federal spending is just over 7 trillion right now. Tax revenue is 4.9 trillion so we have a 2.1 trillion deficit. So if we cut spending across the board to 4.9 trillion and lets say that included the interest on the 35.4 trillion we are breaking even. Without messing with tax cuts or increases we basically will be breaking even.

SO that means current spending needs to be cut by 30% to break even. Now lets say they managed to run a 500 billion dollar surplus by cutting spending another 5% and raising taxes across the board 5% on everything, it will take 72 years to pay off the debt.

Pretty simple math only problem is where do we start cutting without anarchy breaking out.

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Originally posted by Aglifter:
Outlaw health insurance/greatly rework it back to what it used to be, and medical care costs will collapse - along with simplifying the billing/transaction costs.

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Originally posted by oldbill123:
Spending will go up if Trump wins. He has to rebuild the military that the Democrats gave away, so the next Democrat win can give it all away again.

It's a process

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Originally posted by Silvermine:
The "National Debt" is completely fraudulent. The bankers did not lend their own money and they did not lend depositors money, they "issued" it.
The Federal Reserve is not federal and has no reserves.