^^^ That's a great group of companies with growing dividends.

quote:

Originally posted by 2PAK:
What White Phosphorus said above is true.

Except the market was indeed below 27,500 3 weeks ago and didn't signal trouble and has only gone up since then. 20/20 and all.

My investment strategy is always the same. Buy low, sell high.

I am 67 years old, so the dollar cost averaging strategy is not relevant.

After November 6, I sold more than half of my stocks, taking equities from 65% of liquid assets to about 30%. Biden and Kamela are going to damage the economy through executive orders. If the Dems win the Georgia Senate races, and I believe there is a significant chance they will steal them, then the destruction of the US economy will ensue. Now that might not happen, but there is a significant chance that it will. The time to sell is when the market is near all time highs.

Sold all my bond funds, too, so 70% of assets in money market funds, earning nothing.

I also took about twice as much out of 401K accounts this year, while income tax rates are low.

Some one said earlier that the stock markets have historically done better under Democrats. That was then, this is now. Jo and the Ho are not Democrats, they are communists. And they hate America.

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:

quote:

Originally posted by armedprof:
I ask self directed investors this question:

Do you have the Will, Skill, Time, and Access to Information needed to be successful managing your money EVERY SINGLE DAY?

If you can't honestly answer yes to all four items, you need to pay a professional.

I have been studying the market since the early 1990s when I was an undergrad. Will = Yes

I work for a Fortune 100 financial services company, have 20 years experience in the industry, a Masters degree in Finance, and more financial planning acumen than 99.9% of the US population. Skill = Yes

I work 50+ hours a week leading Wealth Management Advisors. I have a family I like to spend time with. I like reading SigForum. I like playing guitar. I like shooting guns. I like playing golf. Time = No

I have access to information because I work with Portfolio Managers and industry leading Investment Management research teams. I have to report every trade I make to ensure I am not participating in insider trading... Access to Information = better than most so Yes

It should come as no surprise that my investments are managed daily by a Portfolio Manager. He buys and sells whenever it makes sense and he only buys the "best" stuff. He keeps my risk constant and manages my investments to ensure a good return in all markets with tax sensitivity for my taxable accounts.

I can't imagine hiring an amateur to manage my net worth.

So the short answer is, my investment strategy is to pay someone a little bit of money to do a lot better than I could possibly do on my own.

And while all that may be true and I’m happy for you a full 75% of “Professional Money Managers” can’t beat their benchmark indexes. Think about that for a minute and you’ll quickly realize that low cost index funds should be a large part of your portfolio.

I have a 7 figure sub-portfolio managed by Fidelity’s Private Client Group and over the last 3 years I have been able to beat their performance by more than 2% on average while my Beta is actually lower than theirs...

My Masters degree is not in finance but I started my own business 37 years ago and was moderately successful with it allowing me to retire early. If you take a long term approach and are patient you can be relatively successful...

JMHO.

I did not state that I don't believe in index funds. I own quite a few. Your ability to outperform Fidelity with a lower Beta is commendable. But your observations miss my point.

The point of my post is that most people do not have the skill, will, time, and access to information to adequately manage a six or seven figure portfolio.

You are welcome to disagree but if you buy mutual funds, you tacitly agree that professional management is valuable.

That is an excellent point armedprof.

Typically in these threads we pretty much repeat ourselves from previous threads.

While everyone is unique in their approach. It is interesting to hear others thoughts.

To me it boils down to risk tolerance/aversion.

At or about to retirement age We are positioned to avoid majors loss' in an inevitable downturn. Which also means minimal gains at the levels it has been at. Which is also fine as you cannot have both.

So imho your risk tolerance should drive how you position yourself.

I am not big on paying someone lots of money to manage what you can do for yourself. Or use one of the mentioned companies who provide very low cost options.

Planning is one thing. Reacting is something completely different. With dramatically different outcomes.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: old rugged cross,

Im 67 as well but not going into 70% cash or Money Market funds. Perhaps 30% cash but not 70%.

Don't disagree about Biden/Harris but we had Clinton and Obama as Presidents and the S&P 500 did pretty well under both of them. I'm not of the midset that I need to be out of the market because of Biden/Harris. At least not at this point. If he appoints Warren as Treasury Secretary I may have to question my premise.

quote:

Originally posted by 2PAK:
Im 67 as well but not going into 70% cash or Money Market funds. Perhaps 30% cash but not 70%.

Don't disagree about Biden/Harris but we had Clinton and Obama as Presidents and the S&P 500 did pretty well under both of them. I'm not of the midset that I need to be out of the market because of Biden/Harris. At least not at this point. If he appoints Warren as Treasury Secretary I may have to question my premise.

The stock market did well under Clinton because of the internet boom of the 1990s, which ended in 2000 with the dot com bust. The bust part was attributed to the Republicans.

Technically, the market did "well" under Obama, if you start counting when Obama was inaugurated. But the market anticipates events, and was in free fall during the last six months of Bush II in anticipation of Obama's regime.

Elizabeth Warren is the least of current worries. Kamela Harris is the very real joker in this deck. What if she appoints Ilhan Omar as Treasury Secretary?

There are endless 'what if's' and potential scenarios. I'll adjust when and if as necessary.

For now, I'm staying the course as I mentioned earlier.

I've been interested in stocks since a civics class in high school.

I've since earned an MBA with concentrations in Finance.

I have a portion of my investments managed by a professional company.

I've had "hunches" before but I never followed them. I keep waiting to invest prior to the dot com bust because I knew the bust was coming. I didn't wait and went in just months before it happened.

Same in 2008.

In 2019, in the longest bull market ever, i knew it had to stop at some point. In February, I had another "hunch" to cash out after the high. After thinking long and hard, the thought that crystallized in my brain was "heroes don't become heroes by following the crowd and, sadly, I wasn't cut out to be a hero."

But day after the election, I had another hunch. On Nov 9, I went to cash on all my self-directed IRA accounts leaving my non-tax sheltered accounts alone for the most part. Yes, I sold Moderna and Palantir (which I bought first day of IPO). I also told my investment company to switch me from 70% stocks / 30% bonds to the reverse: 30% stocks / 70% bonds.

I've been second guessing my decision since then based on how the market has been moving. But I remind myself that I didn't act on my hunches before and I need to stick to my decision until everything plays out.

I had told my investment counselor that I'll look to flipping back sometime after the first half of December. I expect and hope Trump does an effective legal challenge with regards to the election irregularities that goes all the way to the Supreme Court. I think that will cause a fall out in the stock market due to the uncertainty it will produce in the short term.

The same. I don’t know enough about it to time and I’m pretty risk adverse.

Currently I have most of it in a Vanguard Targeted Retirement account based on when I want to retire. Split between two points about 10yrs apart. A little in a stable value fund. It’s done okay and has been getting better since I’ve left it alone. I’ve been looking at having the Vanguard service manage it for me but I’m not sure.

A small deposit each month in a higher yield savings account at CIT. It was close to 2% but now it’s .5% based on the Fed rates. It does ok for a savings account.

We have had a broker for over 25 years. We are risk-averse, all blue chips with a history of rising dividends with a rare venture into an ETF.

He recommends and we follow his advice. Very pleased with his performance.

This is a piece from Business Insider. Link It's about Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, CIO and his perspective on current market valuation. He urges caution at these levels.

Story:

We're in a new bull market, but that doesn't mean it's time to blindly buy stocks, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.
The chief investment officer told CNBC on Thursday that his long-term view for the market has upside, but the S&P 500's current level hovering around 3600 is "full for the time being" and investors need to watch their entry points.

"You still need to be disciplined on your valuations, this is not back in March and April when everything was cheap," said Wilson. "Things are getting expensive again, and you need to be careful of that."

The CIO said that investors got "carried away" and entered the market at bad entry points on Monday when major indices reached all-time highs following Pfizer's vaccine announcement. Investors don't have to sell stocks on news like this, Wilson said, but they should avoid "chasing" positive news because the risk-reward at market's current high levels isn't attractive.

He added that the S&P 500 could easily go down in the short-term if the pandemic continues to deteriorate.

Along with his advice to investors to be careful with their entry points, Wilson told them to adopt a barbell strategy, with exposure to both growth stocks and stocks that hinge on the economic reopening, cyclical stocks.

"The story from here in the market is going to be one of earnings, this year has been about multiple expansions which typically happens when you have a recession," he said. "Then the market looks forward and it becomes a story of owning stocks where the operating leverage and the earnings are going to be greatest, and that still favors these pro-cyclical parts of the market."

Slow and steady. It's called investment, not gambling. Good growth stock mutual funds here. I'm currently at a 34% return this year.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: SIG4EVA,

quote:

Originally posted by Keystoner:
I've noticed a reluctance to reach 30k, even just before Covid, and this whole year since. Every time we get close, it pulls back.

30k is definitely the magic number. If it starts to trend above 30k, then that is a screaming bullish signal.

(Tip; buying in when the index is trending upwards is a great way to tip the scales in your favor.)

The election doesn't worry me much. Biden wants a strong economy, just like any other President. Doing otherwise is political suicide.

What DOES worry me is the very real possibility of regional or national lockdowns. There is too much economic devastation being done because of these approaches to Covid. I do think they are a very real possibility, though. They have said as much.

So, the answer to the OP's question is to follow whatever system that works for you - come Hell or high water.

For me, that's looking for a solid trend above 30,000 on the DJIA. A bearish signal would be a solid trend below 27,000 / 27,500.

....and I'm always looking for individual stocks. The next ZOOM is out there.

V.

Biden doesn't worry me for the overall performance of the market for the upcoming four years he's President. He's just nominated Yellen as Treasury Secretary so that will calm markets compared to having Warren nominated and confirmed in that position.

It's always possible that a 5-10% pullback can happen in a given year. Feb/Mar this year was fun as I think that was ~30% in about ~20+ days but we've come back.

I have some positions in Ruger and Smith & Wesson and rather than sell them, I'm holding. I expect another Clinton so-called ASW ban attempt by Biden. Consequently, hoping those two stocks gain on yet another inevitable gun panic. Having said that, if we control the Senate that may prevent a 2021 Clinton style ban.

If Biden is elected, he won't be worrying about re-election. They may lie low for two years, but then, all bets are off.
Biden won't be in charge anyhoo