Fantasy Vs. Reality - What We Believe Vs. What Is

Luckily, I have enough willpower to control the driving ambition that rages within me.

When you had the votes, we did things your way. Now, we have the votes and you will be doing things our way. This lesson in political reality from Lyndon B. Johnson

"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." - Justice Janice Rogers Brown

July 30, 2017, 05:40 PM

slosig

quote:
Originally posted by JALLEN:
People have done it. There is a way.

Many people have done it. There are multiple ways.

Most involve work, study, and at least some risk.
I know folks who have been successful with three different approaches: deep value (probably the least risky, but not without peril), growth, and momentum. You need more nerve than me to play momentum games, but that doesn't change the fact that folks have done very well with that approach.

ETA: There are probably many other effective approaches, those are just ones with which people I personally know have been successful.

July 30, 2017, 07:08 PM

radioman

quote:
Originally posted by JALLEN:
quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
I once believed I could pick individual stocks and get rich.

How were you selecting them?

This was in the early 1990's, before most people including me, had access to the internet. I read a book called *One up on Wall Street* by Peter Lynch, which was a popular investing book for that era. Then, I paid hundreds for a subscription to "value line" and I looked forward to the newsprint quality pages to come every week which filled by Black Notebooks. Then I spent hours trying to pick Stocks the Peter Lynch way, and by getting data from Value Line. I did okay, but honestly I didn't make a killing. Some winners and some losers, but I really wasn't as far above the averages like I thought I'd be.

So I tossed all the notebooks, and became an "Indexer" after reading John Bogle's book called *Common Sense on Mutual Funds* and I never looked back.

July 30, 2017, 07:39 PM

JALLEN

quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
quote:
Originally posted by JALLEN:
quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
I once believed I could pick individual stocks and get rich.

How were you selecting them?

This was in the early 1990's, before most people including me, had access to the internet. I read a book called *One up on Wall Street* by Peter Lynch, which was a popular investing book for that era. Then, I paid hundreds for a subscription to "value line" and I looked forward to the newsprint quality pages to come every week which filled by Black Notebooks. Then I spent hours trying to pick Stocks the Peter Lynch way, and by getting data from Value Line. I did okay, but honestly I didn't make a killing. Some winners and some losers, but I really wasn't as far above the averages like I thought I'd be.

So I tossed all the notebooks, and became an "Indexer" after reading John Bogle's book called *Common Sense on Mutual Funds* and I never looked back.

At least you had a way that made sense.

One of my regrets is realizing all those MWF classes I participated in in the mid-60's at UT. The text was Securities Analysis by Graham and Dodd. The course was taught by an old, old prof who had run the UT portfolio through most of the first half of the 20th century. He taught us how to value a company, bond analysis, balance sheet analysis, etc, just like Graham taught Warren Buffett and many others.

In those days, the glamor was conglomerates. Our own Dean of the business school was one, George Kozmetsky. Jimmy Ling was on the covers of magazines, in the WSJ making way more money than any of us dreamt about. Manhattan Fund was knocking them dead, Gerry Tsai turning in eye popping numbers with the "Nifty 50" and other modern sophisticated investment methods. Who cared about this old fashioned value stuff?

I got out of the Navy just in time to see the Dow go from 920'ish to 630'ish. That did it! I'm going to law school! This was the biggest buying opportunity of our lifetime for believers. There have been other since.

Those who were believers have done very, very well. Charles Brandis took a chance meeting with Graham at the Hayden Stone brokerage office in La Jolla to a many billion dollar fortune. There are many others.

It irks me to realize I paid to be exposed to this stuff, did pretty well with it academically but didn't have the faith to put it to use until decades later. Opportunities are the most precious things we have and they ought not be wasted.