Ronald Reagan once said "It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so."

How many people make decisions based on what they think they know as opposed to what is, and what impact does that have on us as a society?

I see it on both sides of the political aisle, from people across the intelligence spectrum, from men and women, from all races, and from all ages. I don't know if it is any worse than before, but I do find it odd as we have all worldly knowledge available at our fingertips today. There's certainly no excuse for it. What makes matters worse it that people make real life decisions, sometimes very important, based on what they "know" but simply isn't so.

I'm sure I could give hundreds of examples, but this is one that has been discussed to some degree on the forum before. Child abduction.

Due to the dangerous world we live in, we teach our children not to interact with strangers. They could be abducted, assaulted, or worse. We can't let them walk to school as a bad guy could snatch them up at any moment. We would rather have them inside playing video games where we know they are safe, than outside running loose which puts them at risk.

But here is the reality. There has never been a safer time to be a child in America. Mortality rate is at record lows. Missing children reports are down considerably. Kids get hit by cars much less than before. The truth is that our children face much less risk than we did as children.

Does our attempt to "save" our children result in damage instead? Do you think the obesity rate, addiction to electronics, and other anti-social behavior can be linked in any way? I'm sure it can to some degree.

This is why I believe we should do a better job of "keeping it real". Instead of constantly perpetuating fantasy, we need to do our best to be aware of reality and inform others when we catch them using bad data in their decision making process.

I used to notice this regularly with political discussions, but now I'm seeing it more and more in all aspects of my life. I think it hurts us as a society. I believe it causes many to "pay the bill" for a debt that should have never accrued.

Just my observation of course. Curious to know how others feel, or if they have noticed the same.

The biggest single thing I have learned from this forum is to question what (I think) I know.

'fantasy vs reality'---

otherwise argued for millennia under variations of 'subjective' vs 'objective' reality.

Whatever data base we use to convince ourselves we have 'special knowledge' and 'the reality based conclusion' is difficult to challenge.

'Emotional reality' vs 'rational reality' is another entire argument.

quote:

Does our attempt to "save" our children result in damage instead? Do you think the obesity rate, addiction to electronics, and other anti-social behavior can be linked in any way? I'm sure it can to some degree.

This is why I believe we should do a better job of "keeping it real". Instead of constantly perpetuating fantasy, we need to do our best to be aware of reality and inform others when we catch them using bad data in their decision making process.

Yes, overly protecting children has harmed them. A few examples:

18% increase in the percentage of children with food allergies. It's not in the article I linked, but other articles have linked it with kids being so protected by parents they don't have antibodies past generations have had.

I was a child in the 70s, and we took off into the woods on our BMX bicycles after lunch and didn't come home until dinner. Now, kids have play dates (i.e. forced interactions) instead of figuring out how to make friends and socialize without Mom hovering a few feet away.

Parents are so afraid of their kids getting hurt in sports they're pushing them into other activities. What they're missing in sports is working together as a team to meet a common objective, how to learn from someone older and more knowledgeable, punctuality (I definitely learned this in football), and getting outside your comfort zone (i.e. not quitting when the level of exertion is not comfortable).

I once believed I could pick individual stocks and get rich.

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:
I once believed I could pick individual stocks and get rich.

How were you selecting them?

quote:

Originally posted by a1abdj:
But here is the reality. There has never been a safer time to be a child in America. Mortality rate is at record lows.

But with the ease of communication and social media as the #'s decline the exposure increases. We immediately hear of tragedies anywhere on the globe.

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:
I once believed I could pick individual stocks and get rich.

How were you selecting them?

Duh, he was picking stocks that would make him rich.

quote:

Originally posted by cne32507:

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:
I once believed I could pick individual stocks and get rich.

How were you selecting them?

Duh, he was picking stocks that would make him rich.

Duh, how? On what criteria? His statement of belief implies he was attempting it, and failed.

People have done it. There is a way.

quote:

Missing children reports are down considerably. Kids get hit by cars much less than before. The truth is that our children face much less risk than we did as children.

Couldn't these statistical lows be the result of parents keeping their children indoors where they are unlikely to be hit by a car or abducted?

I'm not saying I agree that having kids who never enjoy the activities most of us did is a good thing-just questioning the chicken/egg aspect of the stats you quoted.

quote:

I'm not saying I agree that having kids who never enjoy the activities most of us did is a good thing-just questioning the chicken/egg aspect of the stats you quoted.

Sure, but that wasn't my entire point. That as just one of many examples. Take another recent thread on the amusement ride accident. Several posters states that they would never ride those rides because they were dangerous (Heck, I'm one of them), but those same people wouldn't think twice about going for a bike ride. Bike riding is several magnitudes more dangerous than amusement park rides based on statistics.

Seems that every day people make decisions, some big, some completely inconsequential, based on what they heard, what they hope, or what they feel and not what really exist around them.

I tend to agree with the general contention that people greatly exaggerate the risks we face in most places today, but risk analysis (at least by some of us) also includes a benefit analysis. I get nothing out of subjecting myself to amusement park thrill rides, and therefore the element of risk—however small—is part of why I don’t. There are positive reasons to ride a bicycle, though, and they override the element of risk as a reason not to. The same is true of shooting activities. There is a far greater risk of being shot at the range than when sitting at home reading a book, but the risk is so small and I perceive the benefits to be so great that it’s an activity I’m willing to pursue.

Fantasy v reality? I think it reduces to, what is true and do we accept it?

In the case of some, they do not recognize truth when they see it. Others prefer not to accept it. Still others do not believe it exists as a solid concept. I think the search for and acquisition of truth that is one of the key distinguishing characteristics of an evolved being. Truth is real. Fantasy is false. Those who tether themselves to fantasy/deception will always be disappointed eventually. A good example of that is the most recent election results. There are other examples like the belief in artificial business models like that of Solyndra or the ACA or almost any manipulation of the natural economy by govt. Eventually those invested will be disappointed. The truth is its own champion and eventually comes to light. The acceptance of it is individual and requires certain character traits be in place. Humility is probably the single most important trait one needs to recognize and accept truth. This is why people with a full glass cannot receive any more water.

quote:

Truth is real. Fantasy is false. Those who tether themselves to fantasy/deception will always be disappointed eventually. A good example of that is the most recent election results.

This is yet another example. Probably the most common one I see.

"Trump said_________". Well no he didn't, and there's a video on Youtube. Had you taken 30 seconds to actually watch what he said, you would know. But ain't nobody got time for that!

They want to believe that's what he said because it goes along with their beliefs. They don't want to know the truth, even if handed to them on a silver platter, because that's not what they want it to be.

quote:

I used to notice this regularly with political discussions, but now I'm seeing it more and more in all aspects of my life. I think it hurts us as a society. I believe it causes many to "pay the bill" for a debt that should have never accrued.

Just my observation of course. Curious to know how others feel, or if they have noticed the same.

Yes, it's true. It causes many to "pay the bill" for a debt that should have never accrued.
I think "common sense" is becoming uncommon.
And when you speak of debt, you are also correct. Debt is exploding. Personal debt and government debt.... most of which will end in default if we keep accumulating more and more debt.

But, politically, it's easy to make promises and pay for them with the earnings of people who have not yet been born and can't yet vote.

Bayesian thinking is a skill set available to enhance ones frame of reference.

Perspective on interpretation

Old Finnish proverb - 'Todellisuus on illuusio, joka johtuu alkoholin puutteesta.'

Reality is an illusion caused by lack of alcohol.

tac

People don't know the difference between a truth and belief. Something can't be true for one person and not another.

Fantasy vs. Reality, as in believing politicians care more about principle than being re-elected.

"Too much of what is called 'education' is little more than an expensive isolation from reality." Thomas Sowell

"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one." Albert Einstein

"Reality leaves a lot to the imagination." John Lennon