It is difficult to come up with a simple mechanical failure scenario. But there are many possibilities which include pilot failure to deal with a mechanical failure.

Foreign airlines are known to sometimes have poor training, and a culture which discourages a subordinate from speaking up about problems. A lot of foreign carriers hire extremely inexperienced pilots who don't have a wealth of real-world aviating flying a variety of airplanes in a lot of different situations. They can fly the profiles and push the buttons on the airliner, but if something goes off-script they aren't trained to improvise and overcome.

The apparent attempt at climbing after the main dive suggests it wasn't a simple suicide/murder event.

Airliners don't dive at high speed despite what Looney Tunes cartoons show. The CVR and FDR are going to be needed to solve this crash.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
The apparent attempt at climbing after the main dive suggests it wasn't a simple suicide/murder event.

Just as speculative, one might argue that it suggests a conflict of sorts in the cockpit, where someone who didn't want to die tried to takeover. Looks to this non-aviation professional that it was pilot-induced aka suicide.

I'm inclined to agree with either ERJ Pilot or 4MUL8R and lean more toward ERJ Pilot.

On a serious note, RIP to the victims and their families.

“There were three pilots of the crashed aircraft. The captain was a young second-generation pilot, and his father was the old captain of China Eastern Airlines and the leader of China Eastern Airlines. There are two co-pilots, one is a young man who has just boarded the plane not long ago. The other is the old pilot who tried to commit suicide, that is, the long-planned person who broke the news from Brother 7. This old pilot used to be a senior captain instructor, available on the Internet, and was rated as a “five-star captain” by China Eastern Airlines. Yes, he was originally the captain. Last year, because of a flight mistake, he flew out of Yichang Airport with a terrain warning️️, which was classified as a serious unsafe incident, and was subsequently subject to various remedial actions by China Eastern Airlines Yunnan Branch. In the end, he failed the simulator exam and was immediately disqualified as a captain. This is a great insult to a pilot captain who is about to retire. Brother 7 said that he had been planning for a long time since January, and carefully arranged to fly with the leader's son. After adding that his family died of the vaccine, the money was defrauded by the Communist Party. This old pilot has lost his humanity for a long time in despair. At the same time, it also shows how tragic the internal struggle of China Eastern Airlines is. The so-called Proud sons of Heaven pilots are nothing more than a group of flesh and blood machines under the rule of CCP, with no freedom and no human rights. Do you dare to be a plane flown by a Communist pilot? Listen to Brother 7 and travel less. May the dead rest in peace”


From a Chinese site, unverified.

Who knows. I detected politics in that account. It is possible that there was an axe to grind. If it was intentional it is NOT suicide but Mass homicide. There is a big difference.

The circumstances around the Egypt Air 990 nose dive and crash in 1999 were reportedly extremely similar.

Experienced pilot nearing retirement age who was facing disgrace and disciplinary action due to reports of inappropriate sexual behaviors, and who then decided it'd be better to go out in a fireball while also taking out a hated high-ranking colleague.

And not just mass homicide, mass murder.
In most accounts of demonstrated intentional crashing by a pilot the media tends to ignore that fact. Someone shoots up a block party, killing five and injuring 10, and we’ll be sure to hear that a gun was involved. Fly a plane into a mountain, kill yourself and 149 others, and all the headlines will focus on the suicide aspect. The people who have done that, probably including the pilot of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 with over 200 aboard, are the greatest single incident mass murderers in history.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
The apparent attempt at climbing after the main dive suggests it wasn't a simple suicide/murder event.

Just as speculative, one might argue that it suggests a conflict of sorts in the cockpit, where someone who didn't want to die tried to takeover. Looks to this non-aviation professional that it was pilot-induced aka suicide.

Bringing an airplane down from cruise altitude is not a simple thing. If a pilot wanted to simply commit suicide/murder it would be far easier to initiate something at low altitude where there is no time for recovery. Having a physical fight in the cockpit against two other pilots is not simple. Disabling something at cruise altitude, such as shutting down both engines, still leaves a lot of time for the other pilots to intervene. Putting the aircraft into a very unusual attitude, eg rolling it inverted, still leaves a lot of time for the other pilots to intervene.

If the unverified Chinese publication is accurate at all, it is not a simple case of depression suicide but a complex situation. Perhaps there was a bigger goal than suicide.

That is my point, that in this case with two other pilots in the cockpit it doesn't make sense to be just a case of suicide.

Whatever it is, China will lie and whitewash it, restricting evidence access to the NTSB and Boeing.

If the Chinese account has any validity, seems the old disgraced Captain wanted to kill the younger Captain - son of the leader of China Eastern.

Revenge against the head of the company by killing his only son. In China, to some, losing one's only son is a fate worse than dying.

quote:

Originally posted by 229DAK:
Whatever it is, China will lie and whitewash it, restricting evidence access to the NTSB and Boeing.

I think they will be willing to blame the pilot to avoid blame on the aircraft, maintenance, and company in general.

For kicks they might try to make him a Uyghur sympathizer, because the narrative is that Uyghurs are the cause of most crime, murder, and terrorism in China via knife attacks, hence the justification for re-education camps.

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
In China, to some, losing one's only son is a fate worse than dying.

I think we can safely say that's a thing outside of China as well.

^^ Yes, good point.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by Keystoner:
Something was causing the plane to pitch nose down and keep it there--

The pilot or co-pilot.

I absolutely agree with Para. For a commercial airliner to descend like this from altitude is exceedingly rare. Not unknown, but rare enough to be very suspicious of those in command of the aircraft.

quote:

Originally posted by Sigfan Roy:
On a serious note, RIP to the victims and their families.

Absolutely, yes. I can't imagine the terror of that plunge. Sum of all fears for me.

Was hoping this scenario would remain in my dreams. Doubt you're feeling anything for the last half of that ride. Soul probably packed it's bags and just waiting to depart.

G forces primarily. I would think you are still aware until you hit the ground. Thoughts from fighter pilots here?

Very little, if any G force on the way down, maybe .25 t0 1.5.

That little "dipsy doodle" near the end, might see about 3 to 4 G for a few seconds, not much more than a roller coaster ride or one of the "slingshot" rides. Then a few seconds more until the end.

No loss of consciousness, even if there were rapid decompression, the time before one is "unaware" is less than the time it took to get to that point before impact.

At most, people would be disoriented.

Yeah, it was a rough ride. These folks knew.

(I had a few close calls on several flights. At the time, you sort of "know" and you sort of "go with it", sometimes, you realize that you almost bought it, but it is over before that registers. And you realize after your brain processes, that it would have been unknown to you, not even a surprise. Hard to put into words.)


If any greater stress was put on the aircraft, it would start shedding wing, horizontal, vertical stab or empennage.

Once an aircraft at those speeds and or stresses and shedding parts, it turns into a whole lot of smaller pieces under rapid breakup.

This one did not do that. At most, the tail and wings may have separated, but the debris feild will make that clear by the location and condition of debris.

First thing is to find the "4 corners", nose, tail and both wings. (and engines when they are slung on pylons).

I have picked up enough and was involved in several crashes in my career long ago.

(Aero Repair and Recovery).

And identifying parts, and reporting on flight control components, what state of deflection, extension and such by witness marks, what components failure appeared to be, sheared, bent, twisted, stretched, missing hardware, damaged hardware, etc. including if any were contributing or as a result of and such.

All goes into reports, and you get questioned and do more reports. Wash, Rinse Repeat.

People die horrible and drawn out deaths, fire, crushing, drowning, freezing, and more.

These type of things just get more focus in the scale and realization in the mind's eye.
But seldom think as much about the other causes.

I hope they uncover the actual cause. Closure is a big part of it.

Having been around a few that a solid cause could not be determined, still linger with questions.

Just a reminder, yes we have the video of the last few 1000 feet at most. A lot happened between 29,100’ and the time the plane shows up on video.