Mutual trade is definitely not going to stop, even if it becomes more expensive through tarrifs and border controls. But what "position of strength" will the UK with its three-trillion-dollar economy be in against the 16-trillion's of the rest of the EU? So far, they haven't even been able to replicate the EU's trade agreements with other major economic powers like Canada and Japan, just a few with the likes of Chile. And people have had nearly three years now to prepare for Brexit. Mostly by major British-based companies moving assets to or opening subsidiaries in the EU-27. Including, it should be noted, those run or co-owned by major Brexit supporters like Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg; the investment company he co-founded launched a new vehicle in Ireland to escape from Brexit effects last year.

^^^^^^^^
Well, President Trump says that a UK-US trade agreement will be forthcoming.

Exactly.

quote:

UK will be forced to accept US food standards in a Brexit trade deal with Trump, warns former trade chief

Thomas Colson, Business Insider

22.03.2019, 09:09

LONDON — The UK will be forced to accept US demands for the UK to change its food safety standards if it enters into a post-Brexit trade deal with the Trump administration, the former head of the UK's International Trade Department has told Business Insider.

Sir Martin Donnelly, who was the Permanent Secretary of the Department for International Trade until 2017, said that any trade deal would be heavily weighted in the US' favour once Britain has left the EU.

"If Britain wants a trade deal with the United States, it's going to be largely on United States terms, and it's not clear what we would get in return," Donnelly told BI.

He said that Washington would likely demand that the UK accepts US environmental and health standards. These include allowing chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef — as well as a raft of other punitive measures.

"All American administrations have been clear on the importance of agricultural exports," Donnelly said.

"The UK's position on environmental health issues and animal health is essentially that of the EU. So it's hard to see how you come to a quick trade deal with the Americans which delivers for the UK as opposed to just delivering for Washington."

The former civil servant told BI that the smaller size of the UK to the EU would weaken its relative bargaining power.

"We're about a fifth of the size of the US. So we're not in so strong a position to insist on maintaining our own standards as part of a deal."

But it will not be straightforward to do a deal with the United States.

"We tried very hard from the European Union side for many years, and there are real obstacles which reflect the different political and economic choices made in Europe and the US."

"All of these issues underline that a trade deal with America is neither straightforward nor necessarily going to produce significant benefits for the UK as opposed to the United States," said Donnelly, who served as permanent secretary at the Department for International trade until 2017.

The US Trade Representative earlier this month published its "negotiating objectives" for a future trade deal with the UK once it has left the EU.

The document states that the UK must "remove expeditiously unwarranted barriers that block the export of U.S. food and agricultural products.

It adds that "unjustified trade restrictions," such as the ban on the sale of chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected beef in the UK, must be removed in order to "eliminate practices that unfairly decrease U.S. market access opportunities."

[...]

Trade secretary Liam Fox has said a free trade agreement with the United States is one of his department's "top priorities" when the UK leaves the EU.

However, the EU's rules on food standards are vastly different and significantly more strict than in the USA. That means the UK, which follows EU rules, can't import certain foods such as chlorinated chicken which do not meet its standards.

Senior US officials in the Trump administration, including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, have insisted that the UK would have to scrap EU rules on environmental animal health and accept American agricultural goods, while Liam Fox has repeatedly stated that the UK will not lower food standards after Brexit.

https://www.businessinsider.de...lly-2019-3?r=US&IR=T

Bigger powers can push for better terms in deals with smaller powers. That's true for both the EU and US in negotiations with the UK alone, which resulted in the (now quite dead) May deal. The whole idea behind the EU after all was creating a block with a combined political and economic weight that allowed it to negotiate at eye level with existing and emerging big powers like the US and China, rather than having terms dictated by the latter to individual European nations.

As noted, Japan and Canada have seen no reason so far to grant the UK the same advantageous terms they did in their trade agreements with the whole EU, which the Brits have been trying to rubberstamp for future bilateral relations. Negotiating after actual implementation of Brexit won't change the principle.

I feel sorry for May...she was a patsy, didn't Boris run away with really big steps when it was discussed he take the PM'ship?

She did not support BREXIT before she was PM and in my opinion at least she was set up to fail in a hope for a 2nd referendum.

I hope they get a PM who actually wants BREXIT and has the balls (no pun intended) to just get GB out of the EU...even if that means no deal

Stop Boris Campaign Is Doomed From The Start: Prepare For No Deal

One way or another a die-hard no-deal Brexiteer (Johnson or Dominic Raab) will properly deliver Brexit.

Self-Preservation

Eurointelligence commented "MPs have strong views on Brexit. But they have even stronger views on the importance of holding their own seats."

Bingo. I think the Tories are learning that if they don't deliver on Brexit there won't be a Tory Party anymore.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news...tart-prepare-no-deal

quote:

JUNE 20, 2019 / 1:30 PM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

Then there were two: Johnson and Hunt fight for British PM job

Guy Faulconbridge, Michael Holden

LONDON (Reuters) - Fervent Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson and foreign minister Jeremy Hunt emerged on Thursday as the only two candidates left in the race to become British prime minister, with the flamboyant Johnson odds-on favorite to win next month.

Despite a series of scandals in the past and criticism about his attention to detail, Johnson has dominated the race since Theresa May announced a month ago that she would step down after failing to get her Brexit deal through parliament.

About a dozen candidates put their names forward, but In a fifth and final ballot of Conservative lawmakers, which eliminated Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Johnson was again way out in front with 160 out of 313 votes, versus Hunt’s 77. One ballot paper was rejected.

Whoever wins will have to find a solution to the Brexit turmoil, Britain’s biggest political crisis in a generation, which eluded May for three years and ultimately led to her downfall.

Known for his mop of blonde hair, Johnson, 55, who served as London mayor for eight years, has cast himself as the only candidate who can deliver Brexit on Oct. 31 while fighting off the electoral threats of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and socialist Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.

[...]

“I look forward to getting out across the UK and to set out my plan to deliver Brexit, unite our country, and create a brighter future for all of us,” Johnson said.

Hunt, once an opponent of leaving the European Union who has now promised to exit with a deal, cast himself as the underdog.

“In politics surprises happen as they did today,” he said. “I do not doubt the responsibility on my shoulders - to show my party how we deliver Brexit and not an election, but also a turbo-charged economy and a country that walks tall in the world.”

Hustings will be held across the country for the roughly 160,000 Conservative Party grassroots members who will decide on who will be their new leader - and Britain’s next prime minister. The result of the postal ballot will be announced in the week of July 22.

[...]

https://ca.reuters.com/article.../idCAKCN1TL0XY-OCATP

I hope Johnson wins, simply for the entertainment factor to the unaffected ...

Every time I see his name, I read it as Brian Johnson.

“Farage in secret meeting with Tories to discuss keeping Labour out

Nigel Farage has held a secret summit with Boris Johnson supporters at a £1,500-a-year private members’ club to discuss the forging of an electoral pact to keep Jeremy Corbyn out of Downing Street.

The Brexit Party leader, whose surge in the polls since Theresa May delayed the UK’s departure from the EU has sent shockwaves through the Tories, met pro-Boris MP Priti Patel at the exclusive 5 Hertford Street club in Mayfair earlier this month.

He was joined by his ally, the insurance tycoon Arron Banks, and the DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr. Discussions are understood to have focused on a deal under which MPs in an administration formed by Mr Johnson would agree to stand aside in certain seats in favour of Farage’s party to avoid splitting the pro-Brexit vote…”

https://mol.im/a/7171165

To Deliver Brexit, Boris Johnson Must Defeat The UK’s Socialists

The Times of London did an interesting profile of Dominic Cummings, the brain behind the Vote Leave movement in 2016 and now the most senior adviser to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It said that right after winning the Brexit vote in 2016, he told supporters, “If we ever want to send up a signal that Westminster is cheating the vote and we need to form a new movement, you will see ‘the bat.’”

On Nov. 18, 2018, the day former prime minister Theresa May signed her unpopular Brexit agreement with the European Union, Cummings tweeted an image of the Batman logo with these words: “Please get in touch. DM is open.’’

Looks like Johnson got the message. By appointing Cummings, the “Batman,” as his most senior adviser, Johnson showed he is committed to delivering Brexit. But as we know too well, every “Batman and Robin” episode has a villain. For the current Brexit episode, Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, seems to be the perfect Mr. Freeze.
Corbyn’s Socialism and Antisemitism

The 69-year-old Corbyn is Britain’s version of Bernie Sanders. Corbyn joined the Young Socialist party when he was in school and has been a fervent believer in socialism ever since. He championed many radical left ideas, including the belief that U.S. imperialism enslaved the Latin American countries. He “proclaims solidarity with socialist campaigns and governments in places such as Cuba, Chile, Nicaragua, and El Salvador” and feels very comfortable with “shar[ing] platforms with representatives of Hamas and Hezbollah.”

Like Sanders, Corbyn had been on the sidelines for decades, but in 2015, he unexpectedly won the leadership position of the Labour Party as socialism was revived in the United Kingdom, just like in the United States. Since then, he has pushed his party farther left into socialism.

Last year, at the Labour Party’s conference, he laid out a socialist agenda with the goal of fundamentally transforming the United Kingdom politically and economically, should he become the next prime minister. Similar to Sanders and his comrades, Corbyn wants to end capitalism, “nationalize public services and some major industries, and force all large firms to give their employees a share of the business and a voice on their boards.”

Under Corbyn’s leadership, the Labour Party has become not only more socialist but also more antisemitic. Since 2015, U.K. media reported hundreds of antisemitic incidents or allegations involving Corbyn’s allies and supporters. In 2018, the Board of Deputies of British Jews and the Jewish Leadership Council held an event together to protest the growing antisemitism in the Labour Party.

Some longtime moderate Labour Party members share the Jewish community’s concern. They are especially disappointed that Corbyn “has consistently shown himself to be neither willing nor able to address the concerns of the Jewish community and many mainstream MPs.” A number of Labour Party MPs, such as Frank Field, resigned from the party because it has become “a force for antisemitism in British politics.”
Corbyn’s Fight Against Brexit — and Boris

Regarding Brexit, Corbyn led the Labour Party campaign against it in 2016. After the “Leave” camp won the referendum, Corbyn initially said the result must be honored. But in an interview with BBC recently, he told the interviewer he would “make a case to Parliament in September to get another referendum” and his party will “do everything we can to take no deal off the table or stop a damaging deal of the sort Hunt or Johnson propose.”

The U.K. media reports that Corbyn scheduled an emergency meeting with his comrades on Sept. 2, one day before Parliament comes back from summer recess. His plan is to push for a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government, possibly within the first week of September. In his deputy John McDonnell’s words, Corbyn will go to Buckingham Palace in a taxi to tell the queen “we’re taking over” if Johnson loses a vote of no confidence in September.

If he forces Johnson out, Corbyn will form a “caretaker” government with other small leftist parties before a general election is triggered. Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, indicated she is interested in joining Corbyn to build a “progressive alliance” and “lock Tories out of government.” But Cummings, the “Batman,” suggested if Johnson loses a vote of no confidence, he can refuse to resign and wait 14 days for the general election to be triggered.

The outcome of a general election will be a toss-up because both the Labour Party and the Tories have their own hurdles to overcome. It’s not a sure thing for Corbyn. A poll early this year shows “a majority of voters believe the Labour leader has been dishonest and ineffective in his handling of the [antisemitic] problem.” And, “[o]f voters who acknowledge Labour has an anti-semitism problem, almost a third (31%) say it will make them ‘much less likely’ to vote for the party.” Lord Charlie Falconer warned that Corbyn will never become the prime minister if voters fear he and the Labour Party are antisemitic.
The United States Can Help Anti-Socialism in the U.K.

For Johnson and the Tories, many Britons are anxious about a “no deal” Brexit — that Britain will leave the European Union and its single market and custom union without an agreement. The “Remainers” have been making predictions of what a “no deal” Brexit would look like: “shortages of fresh food and other consumer goods, problems with medical supplies and confusion over regulations and customs tariffs.”

While the final effects on Oct. 31, the Brexit deadline, may not be so apocalyptic, Johnson and his “Batman” must acknowledge some disruptions are likely to occur, and they need to convince voters that they have a good plan to address any problems.

As a longtime ally of the United Kingdom, the United States can and should help the Johnson administration fan off attacks from Corbyn and the Labour Party. The last thing we want to see is our strongest ally be taken over by socialists. President Donald Trump spoke before about a possible bilateral trade deal between the two countries. Recently, 45 Republican senators delivered a letter to the U.K. embassy in Washington, D.C., pledging:

If Britain leaves the EU with no deal, we will work with our administration, your government, and our friends in the EU to minimize disruptions in critical matters such as international air travel, financial transactions, and the shipment of medicine, food, and other vital supplies. We also will advocate for a new bilateral trade agreement, as early as your Brexit terms would allow, that reflects the centuries of open commerce between our nations.

A trade deal between the United States and United Kingdom will be a vote of confidence for Johnson and Brexiteers. It will provide a sense of certainty to Brits that they are not going to walk down the path to self-determination alone. Hopefully with the assistance of the United States, Johnson and his “Batman” will defeat the U.K.’s socialists and honor the majority of British people’s wish of exiting from the EU.

https://thefederalist.com/2019...feat-uks-socialists/

France Rattles EU Sabre: 'No-Deal' Brexit Now Central Scenario, Demands UK Pay Up

Here we go again.

In what sounds like a repeat of the soundbites from early this year, the French government has once again declared that the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement is now its 'base case' scenario.

That's according to an unnamed official in President Emmanuel Macron's office, according to Bloomberg. That's because UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is refusing to accept the withdrawal agreement unless the EU agrees to remove the hated Irish Backstop, which, by law, could leave the UK trapped in the EU customs union, but with no authority to offer input into its rules.

EU officials have accused Johnson and his Brexiteers of secretly wanting to reimpose a border between Norther Ireland and Ireland, something that many suspect would lead to a revival of "troubles-era" violence.

But the EU's accusations sound about as a convincing as the unnamed French officials "threat" that the EU should expect the UK to pay the 39 billion pound ($47 billion) exit bill even if the UK leaves the bloc without a deal.

To wit, Brussels has no obvious way to force the UK government to pay, just like it has no way to force Ireland and the UK to build a land border, as Mish Shedlock recently pointed out.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news...nario-demands-uk-pay

Fine--then Britain can do a Lord Nelson and blockade France's harbors--again....

So, the EU is like the mafia. Once you're in, only death can get you out.

Before the formation of the EU, I take it that relations between Britain and France were cordial, yes? But, now...

Tell France and the EU to pack sand.

As to the Irish border, I’ve wondered if an acceptable solution would be like in the US. Private vehicles drive through each state’s borders without stopping. If you are a commercial vehicle or carrying livestock, you stop and get weighed/inspected.

If the UK announced that is all they are going to do, I wonder what the EU could do from a practical standpoint?

Boris rocks!

“Last night’s meeting with Angela Merkel in Berlin was Boris Johnson’s first big test on the international stage. It was a test everybody expected him to fail.

Many were hoping he would. From his days as a Brussels-based journalist whose motif was his relentless ridiculing of the Eurocracy and their policies, our new Prime Minister has long been a hate figure in Europe.

But Mr Johnson passed with flying colours. More than that he pulled off a diplomatic triumph. He was charming, good-humoured, and got on far better than expected with the veteran German Chancellor.
……
And then, of course, Mr Johnson managed something which his predecessor Theresa May never once achieved. He secured a genuine concession! …”

https://mol.im/a/7381219

France is past the point of saving itself and it’s sovereignty; clearly GB doesn’t want to travel that same road. I sincerely hope the Brits tell the EU and the surrender monkeys to go to hell.

When Mrs. May was PM, the EU wouldn’t budge from its initial Brexit position. With Boris as PM, they’ve budged. And they’ll budge more.

“Both Emmanuel Macron today, and Angela Merkel yesterday, gave the British PM a glimmer of hope of pulling off his plan to leave the EU with a deal which does not include the hated Irish backstop…”

https://mol.im/a/7384453

I don’t understand the intricacies of British politics, but this sounds promising for a no-deal Brexit if the EU fails to agree to a reasonable deal.

“Britain's Brexit battle has come to a head once again with Boris Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament for five weeks starting on September 9.

This gives Remainer MPs just days to spring their plot to stop No Deal after Parliament returns on Tuesday, September 3. Their next chance will be on October 14, when Brexit day is just two weeks away.

Rebel and opposition MPs are trying to prevent a No Deal Brexit, either by legislating to delay Brexit or by bringing down the Government in a vote of no confidence.

But Boris Johnson wants to keep No Deal as an option, hoping the threat of it will pressure the EU into making a better deal with Britain…”

https://mol.im/a/7402411

Apparently the rest of parliament isn't playing Boris's game.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/0...ries&pgtype=Homepage

Boris Johnson Loses Brexit Vote, Calls for an Election

By Stephen Castle
Sept. 3, 2019
Updated 5:47 p.m. ET

LONDON — British lawmakers on Tuesday rose up against Prime Minister Boris Johnson, moving to prevent him from taking the country out of the European Union without a formal agreement, in an epic showdown that has the country on the verge of a snap general election.

After losing his first-ever vote as prime minister, Mr. Johnson stood up in Parliament and said he intended to present a formal request for a general election to lawmakers, who would have to approve the motion.

A little over a month ago, Mr. Johnson, a brash, blustery politician often compared to President Trump, swept into office with a vow to finally wrest Britain from the European Union, by whatever means necessary, even if it meant a disorderly, no-deal departure.

Now, Parliament has pulled the rug out from under him, and Mr. Johnson is at risk of falling into the same Brexit quagmire that dragged down his predecessor as prime minister, Theresa May.

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The lawmakers forced his hand by voting by 328 to 301 to take control of Parliament away from the government and vote on legislation as soon as Wednesday that would stop the prime minister from his threat of a no-deal Brexit.

That prompted an angry response from the prime minister.

“I don’t want an election, the public don’t want an election, but if the House votes for this bill tomorrow, the public will have to choose who goes to Brussels on Oct. 17 to sort this out and take this country forward,” Mr. Johnson said, referring to the next European Union summit.

Tuesday was a critical moment in Britain’s tortured, three-year, effort to extract itself from the European Union. The saga has divided Britons, torn apart the ruling Conservative Party and prompted complaints that Mr. Johnson has trampled the conventions of the country’s unwritten constitution.

A majority of lawmakers are determined to block leaving the European Union without a deal, which they believe would be disastrous for the country’s economy. Tuesday’s vote suggested they have the numbers to succeed.

Mr. Johnson’s aides had made it clear that, in the event of a defeat on Tuesday, he would seek a general election on Oct. 14. — just a little over two weeks until the Brexit deadline of Oct. 31 — though Parliament would have to agree to that.

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In his rebuttal to Mr. Johnson’s call for elections, the opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, said he would agree to an election only after Parliament passed the legislation barring the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The House of Commons is expected to vote in favor of the bill on Wednesday.

The accelerating pace of events suggests that Britain’s Brexit nightmare may finally be approaching an endgame after years of paralysis.

Tuesday’s vote also marked the moment when Mr. Johnson’s hardball tactics, for once, were met with equal resistance.

On a day of high drama, Mr. Johnson lost his working majority in Parliament even before the vote took place, when one Conservative rebel, Phillip Lee, quit the party to join the Liberal Democrats, who have managed to stage a resurgence by positioning themselves as an unambiguously anti-Brexit party.

The practical effect of Mr. Lee’s defection for Mr. Johnson was limited, however, because the government would fall only if it were defeated in a confidence motion.

But in a symbolic moment, Mr. Lee walked across the floor of the House of Commons and sat beside Jo Swinson, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, as the prime minister Mr. Johnson was speaking about the recent summit of the Group of 7 leaders. Mr. Lee accused Mr. Johnson of pursuing a damaging withdrawal from the European Union in unprincipled ways, and of “putting lives and livelihoods at risk.”

Mr. Lee’s departure from the Tories may not be the last; Mr. Johnson has promised to expel any Conservative lawmaker who voted against him on Tuesday. That could threaten his ability to manage day-to-day business in Parliament, underscoring the need for a new election.

The extent of the Tory civil war was on full display as several Mr. Johnson’s Conservative critics, including the former chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, lobbed hostile questions at him, making it plain that they had not been brought back into line by threats of expulsion from the party.

Opponents of a no-deal Brexit argue that Mr. Johnson’s promise to leave the bloc without a deal, if necessary, would be catastrophic for the British economy. Many experts say it could lead to shortages of food, fuel and medicine, and wreak havoc on parts of the manufacturing sector that rely on the seamless flow of goods across the English Channel. Leaked government reports paint a bleak picture of what it might look like.

Mr. Johnson says he needs to keep the no-deal option on the table to give him leverage in talks in Brussels, because an abrupt exit would also damage continental economies, if not as much as Britain’s. The prime minister appealed to his own lawmakers not to support what he called “Jeremy Corbyn’s surrender bill,” a reference to the leader of the opposition Labour Party.

“It means running up the white flag,” he said.

Mr. Johnson also claimed to have made progress in talks with European Union leaders, although his own Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, on Monday gave a much less rosy assessment of the state of negotiations.

Britain’s main demand is for the European Union to ditch the so-called Irish backstop, a guarantee that the bloc insists it needs to ensure that goods flow smoothly across the Irish border whatever happens in trade negotiations with Britain. Mr. Johnson said he planned to visit Dublin next week for talks with his Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar.

Conservative rebels believe Mr. Johnson is more interested in uniting Brexit supporters behind him ahead of a general election than in securing an agreement in Brussels.

One former chancellor of the Exchequer, Kenneth Clarke, accused Mr. Johnson of setting impossible conditions for the negotiations, attaching as much blame as possible to the European Union for the failure to get a deal and then seeking to hold a “flag-waving election” before the disadvantages of leaving without an agreement become apparent.

The bitter dispute has taken Britain into new political territory.

Last week, Mr. Johnson provoked outrage by curtailing Parliament’s sessions in September and October, compacting the amount of time lawmakers would have to deal with the most crucial decision the country has faced in decades.

Mr. Johnson’s allies argue that it is the rebels who are subverting the principles of Britain’s unwritten constitution by seizing control of the proceedings of Parliament that are normally the preserve of the government.

The European Commission said on Tuesday that while the frequency of meetings between its Brexit team and the British negotiator, David Frost, had increased, little headway had been made toward avoiding a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Asked whether the British government was using reports of its talks with the commission for political purposes at home, the commission’s spokeswoman, Mina Andreeva, said that the body was “an honest broker, as always.” She said she could not “report any concrete proposals having being made that we have seen.”

Mr. Hammond, a senior member of the cabinet two months ago, told the BBC on Tuesday that Mr. Johnson’s claim of progress on the negotiations was “disingenuous.”

To add to the turmoil and confusion, the opposition Labour Party suggested it might thwart Mr. Johnson’s attempt to push for a general election, should it come to that. Under a 2011 law, the prime minister needs a two-thirds majority to secure a snap election, although it is possible that the government might try to legislate to set that provision aside, a move that would mean it needs only a simply majority.

There is so little trust in British politics that Mr. Johnson’s opponents fear that he might request an election for Oct. 14 but then switch the date until after Oct. 31 as part of a move to lock in a no-deal withdrawal.

Labour has said that its priority is to stop Britain leaving the European Union without a deal, because of concerns about what such a departure would mean for the economy.

But Labour’s stance underscores that the backdrop to everything in British politics is a sense that a general election is looming, with key players maneuvering for the most advantageous moment.