SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge British Parliament overwhelmingly rejects Brexit deal with the European Union
Main Page The Lounge British Parliament overwhelmingly rejects Brexit deal with the European UnionGo | New | Find | Notify | Tools | Reply | |
| The Ice Cream Man |
It won’t be doom, at all. Europe is still protectionist - and given Chinas thieving, it makes sense to be a bit protectionist - but they’ve had long enough, I think, that their larger companies will demand trade deals. DC has become too large, to make sense, anymore. The EU is also too large of a government to make sense. Still haven’t quite figured how how people conflate the benefits of a common market with a common government. | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent  |
Same as the with overall agreement, a good old-fashioned real-world compromise. The UK initially wanted to cut EU fishing quotas in its waters by 50 percent immediately, and the other 50 over a five-year period. The EU OTOH wanted a 14-year transition period. Eventually they agreed to reduce the quota by 25 percent over 5.5 years, then negotiate annually. The whole thing is a prime example of both sides being so dependent upon each other that none of them could really "win" over the other. The UK may have extensive waters, but hasn't had the national capability to fully exploit them for a long time. Even in the 80s, with the move from an industrial to a mostly service-based economy under Margaret Thatcher, they were selling fishing rights to other Europeans in the Common Market, before the advent of the EU. Also, something like 70 percent of fish caught in British waters is landed in EU ports; that wasn't going to change overnight anyway. The excitement over the issue was really way out of proportion with the actual economic importance of the industry. But for the UK it was an understandable question of sovereignty, while in the coastal states of the EU the profession has a certain traditional, maybe even romantic image of hard, honest work out on the dangerous sea to feed the nation. Nevermind that most of the EU fishing fleet tonnage isn't picturesque little boats crewed by pipe-smoking, web-footed twelvth-generation owners, but huge supertrawlers with industrial processing, and most fish caught in the EU is exported overseas. The other sticky point was the "level playing field" the EU demanded so the UK wouldn't undercut them with lower social, environmental etc. production standards, and how it would be governed. In the end both sides gave something while holding on to red lines they absolutely couldn't cross; the EU wouldn't do anything without that level playing field and a single governance framework for it, while the UK couldn't accept jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and automatic adaption to future EU regulation changes. Eventually they found a way to include all those parameters - single governance framework with a dedicated body of arbitration, the possibility to sue against perceived violations in the courts of the respective other side, and to apply tariff sanctions as ultimate resort. Probably something like 80 percent of the agreement were incontroversial anyway, like no tariffs and quotas in mutual trade. Despite the mutual public "if you don't move there'll be a hard Brexit, and then you'll see how you like it" posturing, neither side wanted that, and with time running out, a solution was found. This included leaving out some fields where no consensus could be reached. The EU would have liked to include a part on security cooperation, while the UK wanted to cover the important finances and services sector of its economy; but neither happened. Other real-world solutions were Northern Ireland staying in the European customs union, and Gibraltar joining the Schengen area. In the end it's probably a result that despite the polarization over Brexit, 70-plus percent of the British population can live with, stopping the centrifugal tendencies between political camps and regions of the UK. Hardliners will likely keep pushing for a 100 percent solution according to their view, but they'll be able to stir much less shit from now on. | |||
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| half-genius, half-wit |
BansheeOne - If I ever want to read about BREXIT from an unbiased POV, it is here to sigforum that I come to get the best sense of what it is all about. Thanks for that. Right now, the vehicle licence plate folks are pretty busy, making plates without the EU segment on them, and putting GB or UK there instead. Neither of my cars were compliant before, as one of them has AMG down the left-hand side, and other has nothing, as it is a non-ascribable type plate in the first place. The only problem I can foresee is that the lady who currently heads up the Scottish Parliament has promised that 'Scotland WILL be back!' Quite how that'll work out will make for interesting times, for sure. She is not anywhere near as popular as she thinks. When she was at Uni she was so unpopular that she had the nickname 'seaweed' - not even the tide would take her out. | |||
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Baroque Bloke |
Screw you, Macron.  “Emmanuel Macron sparked fury today by claiming Brexit was the product of 'lies and false promises' in a bitter broadside at Britain's departure from the EU. The French president lashed out at the UK's decision to quit the block on the night it finally took place, more than four years after the Brexit referendum…” www.google.com/amp/s/www.daily...-false-promises.html Serious about crackers | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Thanks tac. Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP are clearly one of the losers of the agreement, along with the Brextremists who would rather have cut Scotland and Northern Ireland lose than giving an inch on "the Brexit we voted for" - something that probably existed in as much variations as there were "Leave" voters. I see both regional parliaments voted for resolutions against the deal, but again I think 70-90 percent of Brits will be able to unite behind it, including a majority of Scots and Northern Irish. The proponents of soft Brexit pretty much got what they wanted, those for a hard Brexit at least got Brexit, and Remainers at least got a deep (even if "thin") trade agreement; and at the very least most people are probably just glad to be done with this. After all the fighting about Brexit or no, and will it be an Australia, Canada, Norway, EEC or WTO Brexit, the threats to the integrity of the Union, the screams of "traitors!" against the very institutions this was supposed to restore sovereignty to, at its most basic this means the UK as we know it will survive. Boris Johnson is the big winner of course. He made a wager when he saved the original Brexit agreement by conceding that NI would stay in the Common Market, something that Theresa May had stated no British prime minister could agree to; but then she in fact couldn't have because Brexiteers were already viewing her with suspicion, and she was tied down by the DUP as a coalition partner after gambling away the Tory majority in Parliament. Johnson however had the credentials, everyone was tired of the hangup, and he was rewarded with a majority that enabled him to safely ignore the various special interests, including the hardliners in his own party. The new agreement shows the same pragmatism as the first deal, and the fact that the Tory hardliners of the European Studies Group merely put up a token show of scrutinizing it for ideological purity tells you everyone knew it was go with it, or go under the wheels. Think of Boris what you want, but he has proven that behind his unkempt flickering public persona is a shrewd solution-oriented politician. He will still have to make Brexit work for the struggling regions which gave them their trust, and pour a lot of government money into it, but with the agreement secured he can probably pull it off. As for the EU, they can live pretty comfortably with this, too; and that few to none of the feared disruptions materialized on New Year's Day despite the new requirements for customs declarations and certifications for goods from the UK shows the good will of both sides IMO. So on that note, Happy New Year.  | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
That's the crux of the matter. Too much government, both in the EU and the US. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Web Clavin Extraordinaire |
I'll be interested to see what impacts this all has (now that it's finally actually done) on my cousin who lives in Belfast. He's on a permanent visa, so he won't have any immigration issues with staying in the UK as a US citizen, obviously, but the economic impacts, especially since he regularly frequented an EU country just across the border, is yet to be seen. He was predicting the EU citizen workers in his office would be having the expected immigration issues when we spoke on Christmas day. We shall see, I suppose. Not sure how many of those EU workers are Republic of Ireland Irish and how many are continental EU, however. ---------------------------- Chuck Norris put the laughter in "manslaughter" Educating the youth of America, one declension at a time. | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Tac will know better, but since for practical purposes NI remains in the Common Market, the associated four freedoms (free movement of goods, persons, services and capital) should still apply. So EU citizens should still be able to move and work there without any red tape. Things would get more complicated if the company also had offices in Great Britain beyond the Irish Sea and people needed to hop over frequently. That would now likely require work visas, professional qualifications are no longer mutually recognized automatically, etc. ETA: I checked, and everything says NI will only stay in the Common Market for goods, but not even services; so I suspect free movement of people is right out, and anyone without a British (or Irish?) passport will need work visas.This message has been edited. Last edited by: BansheeOne, | |||
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Member |
In '99 I followed a local driving from Carrickmacross in the South to Newry in NI on some very narrow and windy backroads. He told me it was the reverse of one of the routes he may or may not have used to smuggle subsidized NI sides of beef into the Republic back in the day. I imagine with modern tech it will be much easier to monitor the backroads but the Irish are clever and will find a way if necessary. BTW, Crossmaglen was a scary place even as late as '99. Ended up going thru there on the way back by mistake since I no longer had my guide. Harshest Dream, Reality | |||
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| As Extraordinary as Everyone Else  |
BansheeOne thank you for your detailed explanation of the fishing resolution as well as other facets of the agreement. It is through thoughtful comments from you and others like Tacfoley that give those of us on the other side of the pond a better understanding of the issues. Happy New Years! ------------------ Eddie Our Founding Fathers were men who understood that the right thing is not necessarily the written thing. -kkina | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Well it has been an interesting topic, and often a wild unpredictable ride. I took a cursory look through the whole thread yesterday - I had forgotten a lot of the details, and was wrong about developments half the time. Just a couple weeks ago I thought it likely there would be no trade agreement before the year's-end deadline and a hard Brexit. Meanwhile, all quiet on the Western front, though the potential for future disruptions exists.
https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-t...e-channel/a-56116985
https://www.theguardian.com/wo...ary-post-brexit-deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-55498775 | |||
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Glorious SPAM! |
UK sending patrol boats to Jersey over post-Brexit dispute LONDON -- Britain's government said Wednesday it is sending two Navy patrol vessels to monitor the situation on the island of Jersey, amid an escalating dispute with France over fishing rights in the waters there following Britain’s departure from the European Union. https://abcnews.go.com/Interna...fishing-row-77500369 I read about this story a few days ago, and saw these this morning...cracked me up lol.   | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
I guess everyone was clear that at some point quarreling would pop up over some of the agreement. Particularly the part dealing with the Irish border, which was always going to offend some party whatever way it was written. In fact there have been some threats of violence by Northern Ireland unionists enraged over customs checks for goods crossing the Irish Sea, since NI remains in the European Common Market; exacerbated by the supply problems the UK has experienced recently hitting the area early, even before COVID brought the trucker shortage which all of Europe (and the US, as I understand it) has seen to a head over the last year, made worse for Britain by EU drivers leaving.
https://www.theguardian.com/po...-on-northern-ireland | |||
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| half-genius, half-wit |
Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Along with the rest of the UK, it left at BREXIT. | |||
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| Get my pies outta the oven!  |
Maybe Banshee meant to say “Republic of Ireland”? | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
No, the terms are actually correct; see a couple posts up for what was agreed to solve the issue of the Irish border. NI did of course leave the EU along with the rest of the UK, but for the purpose of traded goods remains in the Common Market to avoid creating a controlled border with the Republic of Ireland - because that would run counter to the Good Friday Agreement which formally ended the Troubles (free movement between both parts was a condition of the Catholic Republicans). Of course that meant creating a customs border in the Irish Sea, which as noted infuriated the Protestant Unionists. Someone was going to be pissed off either way, which was why NI voted against Brexit. But once it happened, the line had to be put somewhere. The EU wasn't going to have an unchecked influx of uncustomed goods not compliant with its market standards, so for once they agreed that Brexit was all about taking control of your borders - in the one area where the UK would have liked to conveniently forget about it. | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge British Parliament overwhelmingly rejects Brexit deal with the European Union
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