Huzzah! Boris is swinging good British steel and the EU is terrified. Now let’s see other countries follow suit and end the abomination once and for all.

Poland is next

quote:

Originally posted by ChuckFinley:
Johnson has 2 main tasks.
1. Deliver Brexit. That should go fairly smoothly, at least compared to the last 3 1/2 years.

2. Prove to the jurisdictions that voted for him, and ESPECIALLY Scotland that he has simultaneously improved their quality of life, their pocketbooks, and that he has heard their voices.

If Johnson sticks to the modus operandi he displayed with his deal, he will aim to prove again that he can deliver what everybody thought indeliverable, even if it goes against prior tenets of the Brexit camp, and pull off agreement on future UK-EU relations within the impossibly short remaining transition period to the end of next year. This seems to support that:

quote:

Brexit: Boris Johnson will amend bill to outlaw extension

Legal block on finalising deal after 2020 removes safety net below negotiations with EU

Kate Proctor, Peter Walker and Daniel Boffey

Tue 17 Dec 2019 02.09 EST

Boris Johnson will attempt to mark his election promise to get Brexit done by writing into law that the UK will leave the EU in 2020 and will not extend the transition period.

As MPs begin to be sworn in at Westminster on Tuesday, the prime ministers team is working on amending the withdrawal agreement bill so that the transition, also known as the implementation period, must end on 31 December 2020 and there will be no request to the EU for a further extension.

[...]

https://www.theguardian.com/po...-to-outlaw-extension

The most straightfoward way to achieve that would be rejoining the European Free Trade Association (originally founded by the UK as an alternative to the then-EEC, but now reduced to Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein) and become party to the Agreement on the European Economic Area with the EU - AKA the Norway solution. It would be horror to the Brexit purists, but so once was leaving Northern Ireland alone in the Single Market; and in the end what counted was popular confirmation by winning a vast majority at the polls. And the freshly-elected Tory MPs know they owe it to Johnson.

Of course, as the Brits say, the proof is in the pudding. But Johnson has never struck me as the ideological type; as I see it, his chief aim is being prime minister. If the same insecurity seen in the last three years continued over trade negotiations up to the next elections, with the Union threatened by separatism in Scotland and possibly NI, it wouldn't help his re-election chances. Securing stability and taking the wind out of the Scottish National Party by staying in the Single Market would. The Brexit Party will call it treason against the people of course, but Boris can just flood social media with the YouTube video about Farage's flipflop on Norway.

I don't think Poland is going anywhere. I don't know if they like being under the EU's thumb economically, but the want the rest of Western Europe (and us also) having their backs if the Russians decide they want them back.

I thought Italy might be the next to bug out. They're getting inundated with refugees, and would probably like to take a harder line than the rest of the EU will let them.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Poland is next

I love seeing this guy who could be Donald Trump's long-lost brother standing there with a red, white and blue sign that says this:

Very Trump-esque!

Make UK Great Again?

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
I don't think Poland is going anywhere. I don't know if they like being under the EU's thumb economically, but the want the rest of Western Europe (and us also) having their backs if the Russians decide they want them back.

I thought Italy might be the next to bug out. They're getting inundated with refugees, and would probably like to take a harder line than the rest of the EU will let them.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Poland is next

Italy, Poland. Tomato potato.

The Brits have shown the way- the EU bastards will have to capitulate to anyone else that gives them an inkling if telling them to fuck off or risk the whole elitist house of cards flopping down flat. I say again, FUCK the EU.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
I don't think Poland is going anywhere. I don't know if they like being under the EU's thumb economically, but the want the rest of Western Europe (and us also) having their backs if the Russians decide they want them back.

I thought Italy might be the next to bug out. They're getting inundated with refugees, and would probably like to take a harder line than the rest of the EU will let them.

Except for an EU program to improve Eastern European road and rail links to facilitate troop movements, and sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, the EU doesn't figure much in Polish security; that's what NATO is for, even if members are largely the same. Other than the advantages of the Single Market, the main reason Poland won't leave is that they're the biggest net receiver of EU money in subsidies and project support, equivalent to their entire defense budget.

In fact Poland, like other Eastern European EU members, was opposed to Brexit for two reasons. One, even with its special rebate the UK is (going to have been) a net payer to the EU, and its leaving will mean less money for the net receivers. Two, a lot of Eastern Europeans are working in the UK under the Four Freedoms of the Single Market, and sending money back home.

People forget that the anti-immigration aspect of the Brexit vote concerned foreigners from within the EU, not outside; the latter are mostly from the British Commonwealth, unrelated to EU rules. Indeed the new interior minister Priti Patel, herself from an Indian-Ugandan family, famously promised the curry house business while campaigning for Brexit that they would have it much easier to bring in staff from South Asia after the influx of Eastern Europeans was cut off. And after the vote, some from the exuberant "go home" crowd attacked Poles rather than swarthy southerners.

Italy was a more likely candidate under the previous government because it's also a net payer. But their beef with immigration has long been that under the Dublin Agreements, they're legally stuck with anybody who first sets his foot on EU soil in Italy. What they want is the rest of the EU taking in a fair share, something the Eastern Europeans in particular reject. But leaving the EU wouldn't change the fact that they're one of the geographically closest parts of Europe to the southern shore of the Mediterranean; so they would still be the port for refugees, and the rest of the EU would be no more willing to take them in.

Banshee One's vanity plate:

After reading that last post is it ANY wonder the Brits want to leave?

quote:

But leaving the EU wouldn't change the fact that they're one of the geographically closest parts of Europe to the southern shore of the Mediterranean; so they would still be the port for refugees, and the rest of the EU would be no more willing to take them in.

Perhaps not, but they could start considering them illegal entrants and not a protected species as forced upon them by the criminal EU. Forced acceptance of invaders is something you should be able to tell the elitist assholes in Brussels “No”. Period. Cram it with walnuts, ugly. We are not taking them. Carting their asses back across the Med would be orders of magnitude cheaper than taking them in. Not being subject to the whims of the EU and their bullying mandates is where every freedom loving country needs to be.

This. Without EU interference the refugees could be immediately deported.

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

But leaving the EU wouldn't change the fact that they're one of the geographically closest parts of Europe to the southern shore of the Mediterranean; so they would still be the port for refugees, and the rest of the EU would be no more willing to take them in.

Perhaps not, but they could start considering them illegal entrants and not a protected species as forced upon them by the criminal EU. Forced acceptance of invaders is something you should be able to tell the elitist assholes in Brussels “No”. Period. Cram it with walnuts, ugly. We are not taking them. Carting their asses back across the Med would be orders of magnitude cheaper than taking them in. Not being subject to the whims of the EU and their bullying mandates is where every freedom loving country needs to be.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Poland is next

Wouldn’t surprise me. Poland is big on protecting their national identity, which runs counter to EU goals. If not next, then it probably won’t be very long.

Surely, they will have an easier time of it, than this May-inspired fiasco...

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
This. Without EU interference the refugees could be immediately deported.

Actually while there is movement towards unifying immigration and asylum policy in the EU, for now it is largely governed by respective national laws. EU rules just set minimum standards which are in turn based upon applicable international law - 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 1950 European Convention on Human Rights, 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, etc. Member states would still be bound by those without the EU, though obviously in practice they might be more lax on it.

So far development of common policy has been mostly aimed at creating a unified system in which any arrival is fingerprinted and entered into a European database to track, and expanding FRONTEX, the European border and coast guard agency, to assist member nations faced with situations beyond their ressources by deploying border forces from other members. Since the 2015/16 refugee crisis, FRONTEX has run "hotspots" to receive and ID migrants across Southern Europe; the plan is to eventually decide on their chances of getting protection right at the borders, and push back those who have none. Ideas for extraterritorial screening centers have encountered various obstacles (chiefly that no transit countries want those on their territory).

It's one of those topics where you get criticized no matter what you do. While rightwingers say EU policy is too refugee-friendly, leftwingers say it's aimed not at protecting refugees, but protecting Europe from refugees, pointing at the deals the EU has struck with Turkey, Libya etc. to keep transients from its shores, making FRONTEX responsible for pushbacks by member nations it supports, etc. In the end, the current situations at the southern borders of the EU and US are rather similar, with the exception that most of it here is seashore. Though there are land borders which have long been heavily fortfied since before the 2015 crisis, like between Bulgaria and Turkey, and around the Spanish exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla with Morocco.

Meanwhile back in the UK:

quote:

Brexit: MPs back Boris Johnson's plan to leave EU on 31 January

20 December 2019

MPs have backed Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January.

They voted 358 to 234 - a majority of 124 - in favour of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, which now goes on to further scrutiny in Parliament.

The bill would also ban an extension of the transition period - during which the UK is out of the EU but follows many of its rules - past 2020.

The PM said the country was now "one step closer to getting Brexit done".

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to vote against the bill, saying there was "a better and fairer way" to leave the EU - but six of them backed the government.

Mr Johnson insists a trade deal with the EU can be in place by the end of the transition period, but critics say this timescale is unrealistic.

The bill had been expected to pass easily after the Conservatives won an 80-seat majority at last week's general election.

MPs also backed the timetable for further debate on the bill over three days when they return after the Christmas recess - on 7, 8 and 9 January.

The government says it will get the bill into law in time for the 31 January Brexit deadline.

The legislation, which would implement the Brexit agreement the prime minister reached with the EU in October, was introduced in Thursday's Queen's Speech, setting out the government's priorities for the next year.

There are changes to the previous bill, which was backed by the Commons in October, but withdrawn by the government after MPs rejected a three-day deadline for getting it through Parliament.

The changes include:

- Legally prohibiting the government from extending the transition period - during which a trade deal between the UK and EU will be discussed - beyond 31 December 2020

- Allowing more UK courts to reconsider European Court of Justice rulings that have been retained in UK law after Brexit

- Requiring ministers to report annually to Parliament on disputes with the EU under the prime minister's withdrawal agreement

- Repealing spent legislation that "now serves no purpose"

The bill also loses a previous clause on strengthening workers' rights.

The government now says it will deal with this issue in a separate piece of legislation, but the TUC has warned that the change will help "drive down" working conditions.

[...]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50870939

So absent any radically unforseen turns before 31 January, the next interesting threshold is the end of 2020, when an agreement on future UK-EU relations must be in place to prevent a belatedly "hard" Brexit (except of course for Northern Ireland, which would stay in the Single Market for the time being under the Johnson deal).

Europe has rejected or gravitated away from Emperors for quite some time. Napoleon comes to mind, but there were others. Bring back borders, currency and cultures. There will never be a Uno-Europe. Skip all the thrashing around from then 'till today, and put the Risk board back to where it was.

quote:

Originally posted by KevinCW:
After reading that last post is it ANY wonder the Brits want to leave?

Germany couldn't take UK by force, so they decided Administrative Assault via the "EU" was the next viable option, along with the other 'nations' in Europe.

quote:

Originally posted by P220 Smudge:

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Poland is next

Wouldn’t surprise me. Poland is big on protecting their national identity, which runs counter to EU goals. If not next, then it probably won’t be very long.

Yup, agree completely.

Nigel Farage will be happy about this.

“Boris Johnson is on a collision course with the European Union in post-Brexit trade talks after he refused to be shackled to the bloc's rules in the future.

The Prime Minister's withdrawal deal sailed through the Commons yesterday, meaning the UK is now all but certain to leave on January 31.

But the vote sets up a negotiation showdown between Downing Street and Brussels, which are at loggerheads over the extent to which Britain should be tied into EU regulation in trade agreements.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said Mr Johnson's pivot towards a 'harder Brexit' in the wake of his thumping election win made a deal with the bloc less likely.

It stems from fears the UK wanted to 'undercut' Europe on food, health and product safety after it exits…”

https://mol.im/a/7815879

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:
The Brits have shown the way- the EU bastards will have to capitulate to anyone else that gives them an inkling if telling them to fuck off or risk the whole elitist house of cards flopping down flat. I say again, FUCK the EU.

Yeah. What HE said.