quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
The UK is a charter member of the European Common Market. They were there at the beginning. They haven't had to operate their economy independently of the rest of Europe for the last half century or more. And there's nothing left of their old empire.

They may be in for big shock, especially if the EU does drop the hammer on them. They'll do as much business over here as they usually do, but they do more business with the EU than with us now, and a good chunk of that may go away.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Or with a no deal Brexit, the EU locks UK out of the continent's market, and the UK economy implodes.

Yeah, that sounds likely... <not>

UK was fine before, they'll be fine again especially with Trump running shit.

And if the EU decides to “drop the hammer” on the UK, it will only be a pyrrhic economic victory. The EU depends on the UK economically more than you realize.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/j...the-uk/#2ced57f42187

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
The UK is a charter member of the European Common Market. They were there at the beginning. They haven't had to operate their economy independently of the rest of Europe for the last half century or more. And there's nothing left of their old empire.

They may be in for big shock, especially if the EU does drop the hammer on them. They'll do as much business over here as they usually do, but they do more business with the EU than with us now, and a good chunk of that may go away.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Or with a no deal Brexit, the EU locks UK out of the continent's market, and the UK economy implodes.

Yeah, that sounds likely... <not>

UK was fine before, they'll be fine again especially with Trump running shit.

And if the EU decides to “drop the hammer” on the UK, it will only be a pyrrhic economic victory. The EU depends on the UK economically more than you realize.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/j...the-uk/#2ced57f42187

Oddly enough, much of the Free World depends on what goes on in the City of London Stock Exchange. Bonds worth in the region of 1/4 of the entire wealth of the planet are tied up in that one square mile. Virtually EVERY merchant vessel on any ocean is insured at Lloyds of London, and when the IRA bombed the city back in the late 90's, causing around $5 BILLION damage, the loss was sucked up and spat out in less than forty-eight hours.

The UK might only be a spot on the map to you guys, but the folks who live there didn't turn 1/4 of the world red by being Mr Nice Guy.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: tacfoley,

quote:

Look for them to especially go after London financial firms. A lot of the big banks/brokerages are looking at moving to Dublin or Frankfurt to avoid this.
***
Or with a no deal Brexit, the EU locks UK out of the continent's market, and the UK economy implodes. The EU does NOT want an independent UK to succeed. They now see the UK as a rival.

They might open offices in Dublin or Frankfurt, but they aren't pulling out of London. No way.

Too much fear mongering here.

The main question hasn't changed: Can you have a trading market without surrendering sovereignty?

quote:

1971 - the United Kingdom joined the European Common Market - a TRADING organisation of fourteen nations that ensured market deals for all with equal significance.

That's very different than what the EU evolved into.

What the EU wants the Brits to believe...



What's really gonna happen...

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
The UK is a charter member of the European Common Market. They were there at the beginning. They haven't had to operate their economy independently of the rest of Europe for the last half century or more. And there's nothing left of their old empire.

They may be in for big shock, especially if the EU does drop the hammer on them. They'll do as much business over here as they usually do, but they do more business with the EU than with us now, and a good chunk of that may go away.

No fucking way - I understand what you are trying to sell, but I don't believe it will happen in any significant way, shape, or form.

Pure and simple.

In UK terms, it's "utter rubbish".

And a lot of the companies that drive that are preparing to bug out to other EU financial hubs. Dublin is going to see a huge boom because of this.

A lot of that business went to London specifically because it was the main financial hub of the EU. With the UK out of the EU, it no longer will be.

quote:

Originally posted by tacfoley:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
The UK is a charter member of the European Common Market. They were there at the beginning. They haven't had to operate their economy independently of the rest of Europe for the last half century or more. And there's nothing left of their old empire.

They may be in for big shock, especially if the EU does drop the hammer on them. They'll do as much business over here as they usually do, but they do more business with the EU than with us now, and a good chunk of that may go away.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Or with a no deal Brexit, the EU locks UK out of the continent's market, and the UK economy implodes.

Yeah, that sounds likely... <not>

UK was fine before, they'll be fine again especially with Trump running shit.

And if the EU decides to “drop the hammer” on the UK, it will only be a pyrrhic economic victory. The EU depends on the UK economically more than you realize.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/j...the-uk/#2ced57f42187

Oddly enough, much of the Free World depends on what goes on in the City of London Stock Exchange. Bonds worth in the region of 1/4 of the entire wealth of the planet are tied up in that one square mile. Virtually EVER mechant vessel on any ocean is insured at Lloyds of London, and when the IRA bombed the city back in the late 90's, causing around $5 BILLION damage, the loss was sucked up and spat out in less than forty-eight hours.

The UK might only be a spot on the map to you guys, but the folks who live there didn't turn 1/4 of the world red by being Mr Nice Guy.

It looks like we're very much going to find out one way or another.

I don't have a horse in this race. But as an outside spectator, I can make my predictions. A lot or England's economic activity comes from London's status as the EU's main financial hub. Once the UK pulls out, it's very likely the EU will not allow that to continue, and will push to force that business into EU states. In can force EU companies to relist their stocks on EU exchanges. It can force EU businesses to use EU insurance companies. What will Lloyd's do if their business leaves? Do you not think they'll organize a continental insurance exchange. The EU can generate a lot of leverage to force business out of the UK and into it's member states.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
No fucking way - I understand what you are trying to sell, but I don't believe it will happen in any significant way, shape, or form.

Pure and simple.

In UK terms, it's "utter rubbish".

https://theconservativetreehou...-brexit/#more-178560

FTA:

In the details of a Brexit trade agreement with the EU it appears the EU can, likely would, punish the UK for having more favorable trade agreements with other nations. Meaning if the UK gives better deals to others than it does the EU, the EU will increase tariffs against the UK and use non-trade barriers to restrict access to the EU market for UK products.

But that’s the limit of what the EU will be able to do….

Meaning, the EU cannot stop the UK from entering a trade deal with North America (think USMCA); and there’s a very visible likelihood President Trump is constructing a U.S-U.K trade agreement with that in mind.

Meaning the U.K. could have preferential access to North America; and USMCA countries (Mexico, U.S. and Canada) will in turn have preferential trade treatment with the U.K.

This is important. The EU will not be able to influence the U.S-U.K. trade agreement beyond imposing tariffs and restrictions on Britain as punishment. This is where the importance of Donald Trump comes in.

Trump can, I would say: likely will, give preferential treatment to exports from the U.K., so long as PM Boris Johnson is reciprocal toward the U.S.

Simultaneously, President Trump can hit the EU much harder than the EU can hit Great Britain. If, say, the EU hits the UK with a 25% tariff as punishment for a better trade deal with the U.S. on any individual segment, Trump can hit the EU with a 25% tariff back on the EU.

The EU needs access to the $20 Trillion U.S. market much more than the EU needs access to the newly freed U.K. market. It takes building a level of trust, but President Trump and PM Johnson can work together to leverage this trade situation to both of their benefits.

The EU will want to keep selling their stuff into the U.K. (less important); but the EU *has to* keep selling their stuff into the U.S. (very important) in order to survive.

Trump and Johnson can work on a U.S-U.K. trade superhighway. Our research already sees this construct in the discussions. Simultaneously, Trump can pummel the EU with tariffs...

Delingpole: Rejoice! Rejoice! Britain Just Dodged the Marxist Bullet!

So Britain doesn’t, after all, want to be run by an antisemitic, terrorist-supporting Marxist and his gang of nasty, aggressive, intolerant, historically illiterate Social Justice Warriors who think the only problem with Communism is that it hasn’t been tried properly yet…

Who would have thought, eh?

Well, I did, for one. I’ve been calling a big Conservative win ever since this general election was announced: not because I’m Nostradamus but because it seemed to me that all the Tories’ stars were so obviously in alignment.

Unelectable Opposition led by crabby hard-left ideologue with very dodgy friends? Check.

Charismatic, entertaining, optimistic former Mayor of London, household name, with track record of winning elections? Check.

Massive public desire to Get Brexit Done? Check.

Tory party united behind a common goal? Check.

Voters — especially the working classes — just sick of rampant PC? Check.

Ruthlessly effective Tory election machine? Check.

But just because it was inevitable doesn’t stop it being an amazing result.

Maybe a Corbyn victory was never a likely possibility, but that wasn’t how it felt yesterday when all manner of polls and rumors were predicting all sorts of strange things and even the most unflappable among us began wondering whether the time had come to pack our bags for Costa Rica or Switzerland or frankly anywhere where John McDonnell wasn’t going to be Chancellor and Diane Abbot Home Secretary.

Had these people won, it really would have been curtains for Britain. (And the markets knew it: which is why sterling plummeted yesterday on rumours of that Labour stood a chance).

When it first became obvious that the Conservatives were going to win a sizeable majority I couldn’t resist tweeting my relief:

But it wasn’t just myself, my friends and family, and my country’s future I was thinking of here. Mainly, I was thinking about the most important reason why this crushing Conservative victory matters so much: the tears and lamentations of the liberal left.

I’m thinking of Lily Allen, the pop star, who claims to have wept for joy when she read Labour’s manifesto.

And crisp salesman Gary Lineker.

And Care Bear Commies Owen Jones, Ash Sarkar, Aaron Bastani, and Grace Blakeley.

And luvvies like Hugh Grant.

And all those myriad woke grime artistes like Stormzy.

It really doesn’t matter whether or not you’ve heard of these people. The point is that today is like the morning in June 2016 after the Brexit referendum result came in, and the day in November 2016 when Trump got elected: all the worst people in the world were really, really, really unhappy; while the rest of us couldn’t be more pleased or relieved.

Yes, I know there’s supposed to be this honourable tradition of being magnanimous in victory.

Seriously, though, how can one have any respect for or charity towards people who were prepared to vote for a party of such manifest wickedness?

When the Guardian wrote an editorial backing Labour, having first made a few token concerned noises about Labour’s antisemitism, I mocked their absurd hypocrisy:

Wow. Just read Guardian editorial. "The pain and hurt within the Jewish community, and the damage to Labour, are undeniable and shaming. Yet Labour remains indispensable to progressive politics.”

It seemed scarcely credible to many of us that, with the Holocaust still in living memory, Britain’s Jews found themselves in a situation where they were genuinely fearful of their safety and their future under a Labour government. This, I’m sure, is one of the reasons Britain rejected Corbyn’s antisemitic Labour with such vigour and near-unanimity: how DARE you make our Jewish friends unwelcome!

There will be time enough to worry about issues like whether Boris Johnson’s Conservatives will now deliver meaningful Brexit and whether they’ll undo the damage the left has inflicted on Britain since the Blair era.

For the moment let’s just relish the fact that the forces of the right have won a glorious victory over the forces of darkness. And that Britain is not, after all, going to be turned into Venezuela Mk II.

https://www.breitbart.com/euro...13&utm_content=Final

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
And a lot of the companies that drive that are preparing to bug out to other EU financial hubs. Dublin is going to see a huge boom because of this.

A lot of that business went to London specifically because it was the main financial hub of the EU. With the UK out of the EU, it no longer will be.

quote:

Originally posted by tacfoley:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
The UK is a charter member of the European Common Market. They were there at the beginning. They haven't had to operate their economy independently of the rest of Europe for the last half century or more. And there's nothing left of their old empire.

They may be in for big shock, especially if the EU does drop the hammer on them. They'll do as much business over here as they usually do, but they do more business with the EU than with us now, and a good chunk of that may go away.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
Or with a no deal Brexit, the EU locks UK out of the continent's market, and the UK economy implodes.

Yeah, that sounds likely... <not>

UK was fine before, they'll be fine again especially with Trump running shit.

And if the EU decides to “drop the hammer” on the UK, it will only be a pyrrhic economic victory. The EU depends on the UK economically more than you realize.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/j...the-uk/#2ced57f42187

Oddly enough, much of the Free World depends on what goes on in the City of London Stock Exchange. Bonds worth in the region of 1/4 of the entire wealth of the planet are tied up in that one square mile. Virtually EVER mechant vessel on any ocean is insured at Lloyds of London, and when the IRA bombed the city back in the late 90's, causing around $5 BILLION damage, the loss was sucked up and spat out in less than forty-eight hours.

The UK might only be a spot on the map to you guys, but the folks who live there didn't turn 1/4 of the world red by being Mr Nice Guy.

It looks like we're very much going to find out one way or another.

I don't have a horse in this race. But as an outside spectator, I can make my predictions. A lot or England's economic activity comes from London's status as the EU's main financial hub. Once the UK pulls out, it's very likely the EU will not allow that to continue, and will push to force that business into EU states. In can force EU companies to relist their stocks on EU exchanges. It can force EU businesses to use EU insurance companies. What will Lloyd's do if their business leaves? Do you not think they'll organize a continental insurance exchange. The EU can generate a lot of leverage to force business out of the UK and into it's member states.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
No fucking way - I understand what you are trying to sell, but I don't believe it will happen in any significant way, shape, or form.

Pure and simple.

In UK terms, it's "utter rubbish".

And companies can open branches in London, and then make those branches the holding companies for branches on the Continent. I'm not sure the EU can visit too many restrictions on corporations, or at least without losing a lot of good buisness for itself.

First, while one should be cautious with predictions after all the delays in this saga, I see no reason the UK shouldn't finally leave now on 31 January. Johnson's comfortable new majority means that he probably doesn't need to care about either any remaining (ha) Remainers nor hard-line Brexiteers among Conservative MPs anymore, and can push ahead on the deal he made. And I think about anybody in the EU, whatever their personal opinion of Johnson, is ultimately glad of it. The whole Brexit mess has just held up day-to-day business for a year longer than it should have already.

Not that it's over yet, mind. As noted before, this only establishes the conditions on which the UK leaves; the negotiations of future relationships, particularly trade, are still to be done. Under the current deal, only eleven months remain to the end of next year for this, while the UK is still in the Single Market. If no agreement is struck - and ratified by all national parliaments plus the European Parliament - by then, "hard" Brexit with all the potential economic repercussion would still occur as mutual trade defaults to basic WTO rules. Given that such agreements usually take years to negotiate, people have long predicted that we will soon be back to long-lasting quarrel about extensions, this time of the transition period.

We're then back to the conditions which have marrred the original Brexit process: Both sides want free trade, because geographic proximity dictates that they are important trade partners. However, the EU has no interest nor obligation to give the UK a better deal than its own members, and the UK as a single nation has vastly smaller political and economical clout than the combined European block to bring to the negotiation table. If a "delayed" hard Brexit occurs, both sides will suffer economically, but the UK much more so relative to its smaller size (though by a German study on the global economic impact from this August, as an individual nation Ireland would be hardest hit with a "wealth loss" of 8.16 percent, compared to 2.76 for the UK and 0.72 for Germany; however, that was before a solution for the Irish border problem was found with the current deal).

A sane solution would be the much-touted "Norway" model, the country being party to the Single Market as a non-EU member in return for payments to some EU funds under the Agreement on the European Economic Area - but not of the customs union, leaving it free to make its own trade deals with third parties. Nigel Farage used to hold it up as a glowing example for a non-EU member doing well, but changed his stance to that being "no true Brexit" over the last year or so; so expect more domestic British fighting over what Brexit really means. But again, Johnson's new huge majority might help.

Regarding Scotland, constitutionally they need consent from London to hold another independence referendum. When they had their last one in 2014, the EU made it clear they couldn't just slip in on the existing legal basis as a newly independent member state, but would have to go through the same long-winded admittance process as any other candidates, which would also take years. Even if Brussels was more sympathetic to the Scots post-Brexit, the basic reason of not encouraging separatist movements in Europe would remain. For example, Spain would be likely to veto even starting negotations with them in view of their own current trouble with separatism in Catalonia.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
First, while one should be cautious with predictions after all the delays in this saga, I see no reason the UK shouldn't finally leave now on 31 January. Johnson's comfortable new majority means that he probably doesn't need to care about either any remaining (ha) Remainers nor hard-line Brexiteers among Conservative MPs anymore, and can push ahead on the deal he made. And I think about anybody in the EU, whatever their personal opinion of Johnson, is ultimately glad of it. The whole Brexit mess has just held up day-to-day business for a year longer than it should have already.

Not that it's over yet, mind. As noted before, this only establishes the conditions on which the UK leaves; the negotiations of future relationships, particularly trade, are still to be done. Under the current deal, only eleven months remain to the end of next year for this, while the UK is still in the Single Market. If no agreement is struck - and ratified by all national parliaments plus the European Parliament - by then, "hard" Brexit with all the potential economic repercussion would still occur as mutual trade defaults to basic WTO rules. Given that such agreements usually take years to negotiate, people have long predicted that we will soon be back to long-lasting quarrel about extensions, this time of the transition period.

We're then back to the conditions which have marrred the original Brexit process: Both sides want free trade, because geographic proximity dictates that they are important trade partners. However, the EU has no interest nor obligation to give the UK a better deal than its own members, and the UK as a single nation has vastly smaller political and economical clout than the combined European block to bring to the negotiation table. If a "delayed" hard Brexit occurs, both sides will suffer economically, but the UK much more so relative to its smaller size (though by a German study on the global economic impact from this August, as an individual nation Ireland would be hardest hit with a "wealth loss" of 8.16 percent, compared to 2.76 for the UK and 0.72 for Germany; however, that was before a solution for the Irish border problem was found with the current deal)...

Rubbish. Why do you think the EU is panicking? Watch the UK grow at a blistering pace once they’re done with the EU trash.

Where is the EU panicking? For the last year, the sentiment has been an increasingly exasperated "will you make your mind up".

The EU hasn’t been panicking because they’ve been confident that they could bully the Brits and affect any outcome via the media just like the leftist trash in the US. Perhaps we see them starting to sweat a little now that the UK has slipped the EU noose.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
Where is the EU panicking? For the last year, the sentiment has been an increasingly exasperated "will you make your mind up".

Negative. The EU doesn’t want the UK to leave because a successful UK outside of the EU would be detrimental to the EU staying together. They may publicly state otherwise, but without the UK you will see other nations leave and the EU knows it.

Wait and see.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
Where is the EU panicking? For the last year, the sentiment has been an increasingly exasperated "will you make your mind up".

Holy Moly! A BansheeOne post with only 2 two sentences. I just saw a pig fly by.

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
Where is the EU panicking? For the last year, the sentiment has been an increasingly exasperated "will you make your mind up".

Holy Moly! A BansheeOne post with only 2 two sentences. I just saw a pig fly by.

I couldn’t believe it either. I marked my calendar. Wow!

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:
The EU hasn’t been panicking because they’ve been confident that they could bully the Brits and affect any outcome via the media just like the leftist trash in the US. Perhaps we see them starting to sweat a little now that the UK has slipped the EU noose.

The UK should announce the formation of a "New EU" based on free trade without all the "Brussels ".

So, from election night 2016, we have a ton of videos showing crying, screaming, tantrum-throwing leftists losing their shit.

Do we have any such videos from across the pond?