SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge UPDATE FROM 2018 and 2020: Merkel on the way out. No, seriously this time.
Main Page The Lounge UPDATE FROM 2018 and 2020: Merkel on the way out. No, seriously this time.Go | New | Find | Notify | Tools | Reply | |
Grapes of Wrath |
Ironically, I just finished reading through this entire thread to come upon your inane post. Rule #1: Don't be a dick. | |||
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Character, above all else |
Thanks BansheeOne. I follow your well-written, informative posts with interest. "The Truth, when first uttered, is always considered heresy." | |||
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| Grapes of Wrath |
While it seems natural that SPD movement would correlate with The Greens, it seems odd people are switching between CDU and Green, with little fluctuation in the other parties. Multiparty systems must end up forcing strange bedfellows and interesting compromises. | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent  |
In a very German way, the Greens are actually quite conservative - that is, with a strong traditional love for nature and regulations. I like to call them the garden owners association among German parties (unless you are familiar with the allotment garden hobby scene and its anal ways here, that joke doesn't translate well though). They were long split between a leftist "fundi" and moderate "realo" wing, but after they got trounced with a leftist campaign in the 2013 national elections while winning the 2011 Baden-Württemberg state elections with conservative figures, the former have all but yielded the field and the later have taken over. In fact the Baden-Württemberg party is basically a green-painted CDU, currently in a government coalition with the original; state minister president Winfried Kretschmann, the first and only of his kind, is naturally supportive of the state's native auto industry (Mercedes and Porsche), and Tübingen mayor Boris Palmer frequently irks his more liberal northern co-partisans with his criticism of immigrants (he's currently also embroiled in an affair of getting into a nighttime streetside shouting match with some student after an event, then trying to cite him for public disturbance as head of local law enforcement - it doesn't get any more German than that). The essential thing to know is that traditional German conservativism is of the statist big government type. This includes issues like public welfare - the German system was introduced by Bismarck in the late 19th century, who wanted to prevent precarious social conditions empowering the Social Democrats. Small government is the reserve of classical liberals (think libertarians) in Europe, like the German FDP. They used to be the traditional coalition partners of CDU/CSU, strengthening the latter's pro-market positions against their statist streaks. But they dropped out of national parliament in 2013 after disappointing public performance in government, and are competing with the Greens over different interpretations of liberalism (basically, classical vs. progressive) as partners for different interpretations of conservativism (big vs. small government). Today, Hesse and Schleswig-Holstein are other states with CDU-Green coalition governments, the latter also including the FDP. This option was explored at the national level after last year's elections, too; but the FDP didn't want to be ground up in another Merkel government after just recovering from their 2013 defeat, this time alongside the Greens. It might well be realized in the next government without Merkel though, either with or without the FDP. The mobile mass between CDU/CSU and the Greens are mainly urban well-off voters with high education and basic conservative values, often with families, who like to think they are really liberal and tolerant, and want to conserve a healthy environment for their children. If you think that's confusing from an American point of view, look at the big losers of modern political development in Germany, the Social Democrats. First the Greens took away their progressive voters in the 80s; then after the unpopular, but necessary welfare reforms under Gerhard Schröder in the early 2000s the Left Party took their disgruntled left wing. The Merkel CDU stole practically any issue from them which looked like it could gain them traction, ideology be damned. That in turn contributed heavily to the rise of the right-wing AfD, which attracted many disgruntled conservatives - but also stole a lot of working-class voters from both the Social Democrats and Left Party, in part on demands to roll back Schröder's welfare cuts (and in East Germany, even to re-introduce the socialist amenities of the old DDR). Remember - German conservativism is statist. | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Vote on the CDU chair at the convention tomorrow before noon, though it may take longer if none of the candidates scores an immediate majority and there is a run-off between the top two. Of the also-rans, one Hamburg businessman has been mentioned to possibly get an on-the-spot nomination by some friendly delegates, but is not credited with any actual chances. All candidates are reportedly working possible supporters among the delegates. The winner is expected to present a candidate for becoming the next secretary general which will be voted on the next day, since Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has announced to resign all party offices if she doesn't make it. It has been suggested that the winner will chose somebody representing what he/she doesnt to unite the party after the somewhat divisive campaign; AKK a conservative man - possibly Carsten Linneman, head of the CDU's powerful medium businesses association, or Young Conservatives president Paul Ziemiak -, Merz maybe a woman from East Germany. As for Jens Spahn, the general question of observers now merely is how well he will score in third place. In the last days before tomorrow's vote, prominent supporters of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Friedrich Merz have come out to endorse their peference. Bundestag speaker Wolfgang Schäuble, who has of course been known to have facilitated Merz's run for some time, was first - though he interestingly contradicted the latter's claim that he once suggested Angela Merkel as CDU secretary general to Schäuble (who became party head after Helmut Kohl left in 1998) in a timely documentation by public broadcaster ARD on the events surrounding Angela Merkel's announcement to step down as CDU head, the careers of the three top contenders for her chair and their early campaign trail, as well as the networks and backroom deals that were the order of business since the party last made an open choice between Rainer Barzel and Helmut Kohl in 1971 (in German, obviously). The major fact from the docu that also made other news before release is that then-finance minister Schäuble and Merz already talked about one of them challenging Merkel in 2015/16 after an earlier string of lost state elections; both had been critical of her policy on the Greek bailout earlier, too, which they thought too lenient. In the end Schäuble decided for loyality though. Merz's claim that he suggested Merkel as CDU secretary general would make it even more tangible how pissed he was when she pushed him out of the party's Bundestag group leadership four years later, when it is alleged he thought she was already on a descending track. EU Finance Commissioner and former Baden-Württemberg state minister president Günther Oettinger has become another open Merz Supporter. Angela Merkel's chief of staff Peter Altmaier promptly criticized Schäuble for his public endorsement and countered by endorsing AKK (both are of course Saarlanders). Previously Schleswig-Holstein state minister president Daniel Günther, former federal labor minister Norbert Blüm of the CDU's workers wing, and NRW state interior minister Herbert Reul also spoke out for her. The only statements Jens Spahn got seem to be polite advice to quit. In general media, Merz still receives most scrutiny, mostly over his business positions in the last decade, his resulting wealth and his reluctance to own up to it. The last was criticism of his proposal for tax breaks on buying stocks to secure retirement. Some have also tried to paint him as a brash, aloof personality who tends to abuse restaurant staff and once rewarded a homeless man who found and returned his lost laptop computer with a copy of this book "Only He Who Changes Will Persist. Of the end of the wealth illusion - Defining a course for the future". We'll know more in a little over 24 hours. Afterwards we'll probably see some more definite movement in national polls. So far it seems that both CDU and AfD bottomed out in mid-November and are slowly gaining again at the expense of the Greens who are declining from their all-time high at that point. | |||
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| Peace through superior firepower  |
Never heard of her | |||
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| Member |
Thank you for the fascinating write-up, I have enjoyed reading it and look forward to further updates. Laughing in the face of danger is all well and good until danger laughs back. | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer elected quite narrowly with 517 votes against 482 for Friedrich Merz in a run-off. There were no ad-hoc nominations of further candidates. All three contenders held more or less overly long speeches (20 minutes were agreed for each; AKK exceeded by two, Merz by nine), followed by questioning from delegates about issues like abortion, when they would name their choice for the next secretary general, etc. Observers thought AKK and Jens Spahn delivered some of their best speeches respectively. Merz was solid after a slow start, talking mostly about pushing back the AfD; but he is known as a brilliant speaker and didn't exceed expectations like AKK, who focussed on courage for the party, speaking against letting it being driven by the fringe, and refuting that she was just a Mini-Merkel. Spahn stressed his youth and winning more of the young generation, securing a better-than expected 157 votes in the first round of the election with 392 for Merz and 450 for AKK, forcing the run-off. I had a feeling AKK would win, but was really not sure; applause was quite the same for all three. The result indicates continuity for the rest of the current term, but was really tight, showing some polarization in the party. Merz has of course asked his voters for support of the new chair, but she will need to do some work of her own to unite the party under her.
AKK did indeed nominate Ziemiak, which covers the young male conservative angle. He was however subsequently elected with just a 63-percent vote by delegates, which is surprisingly low and not particularly indicative of the party reuniting. Ziemiak was born to an ethnic German family in Poland and is friends with Jens Spahn (who was himself elected to the CDU's executive committee with an 89-percent vote as a sop; he has of course lots of political mileage left to rise further). People have also called upon Friedrich Merz to continue serving the party in a leading position, though he hasn't reacted to that yet. AfD and FDP on the right reacted critically to selection of AKK, basically saying that she represented more of the same. OTOH, the Left Party said she wouldn't make the CDU a more open, liberal party - which of course wasn't the plan of any candidate, either. SPD and Greens overall welcomed the convention's choice. I'll probably make another post in a week or so to sort the immediate political fallout. | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
So here's the sweep-up. A week after the CDU leadership decision, the party has continued its rebound in the polls to generally cross the magical 30-percent line again; that's three to six points up from their October low and comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who have dropped three to five from their corresponding high. I'm a little surprised the AfD hasn't risen further, too, but in fact dropped back to 13-15 percent after it recently looked like they were also recovering from their low during the Green high. I would have thought that selection of the notionally most liberal CDU candidate, the "Mini-Merkel", would make conservative fence-sitters revert back to them. There are various possible explanations of course. One is that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer successfully distanced herself from her previous image during the campaign, and in fact came across as more conservative than her competitors on some positions like (the long-settled issue of) same-sex marriage. Then again maybe it's just the attraction of a fresh start after 18 years of Merkel's leadership per se, and particularly the unusually lively public campaigning in a party that used to select its heads in backroom deals, sometimes keeping them for donkey years (Konrad Adenauer served for 20 if you include his pre-FRG time in the British Zone of Occupation, Helmut Kohl for 25). Poll numbers indicate that the CDU low coincided with a high of undecideds/non-voters, and the latter's numbers shrunk again parallel to the party's subsequent rise, so the process seems to have activated voters either way. It's impossible to know how election of another candidate would have turned out, obviously. AfD co-head Alexander Gauland had noted something prior to the decision I think is quite correct: Merz wouldn't have hurt the far right in East Germany where it's strongest too much, because to their voters there he is an evil capitalist American puppet. Gauland opined that Jens Spahn would have been the greatest challenge, but even AKK doesn't carry the same burden of being perceived as an aloof representative of a sinister rich international elite. There is of course the possibility that the AfD is failing to attract more conservatives due to its increasing radicalism, too. AKK's primary challenge as new CDU head remains to reunite the party, particularly regarding the Merz fanbase who are currently acting as rather unsporting losers in the close decision, in contrast to their candidate himself. Their disappointment was first shown in the mediocre election result for current Young Conservatives' head Paul Ziemiak as AKK's pick for the secretary general post. Apparently they see him at best as a turncoat, and some are spreading conspiracy theories that as head of the party's youth wing which had previously endorsed Jens Spahn, he engineered their vote to go to AKK in the run-off. The official story is that she had asked him first before the election, but he declined on the reason that he wouldn't vote for her; he hadn't made any personal preference known himself, probably because he is also from Merz's district of the Sauerland. She then hit him up again after her election on the side of the dancefloor at the Young Conservatives regular disco night on Saturday, and he agreed. The story has been questioned even by neutral observers, but knowing JU dance nights, I wouldn't rule it out. Merz himself still hasn't responded on calls to continue serving the CDU in a leading role however, though some supporters have called for him to become minister of economy in lieu of Merkel's close confidant Peter Altmaier, who pissed them of by endorsing AKK in response to Bundestag speaker Wolfgang Schäuble coming out for Merz. That would be Merkel's call though, and most observers don't see her elevating her old rival after she has now ceded the party leadership and announced not to run for chancellor or any other political office in 2021 again; particularly since her serving out the term is now all but secured by her own candidate's election. However, as part of her attempt to rebuild her image and bring the party together, AKK has stated that under her, there is going to be a more equilibrious triangle between cabinet, Bundestag group and the party-at-large, and she is going to contradict Merkel where necessary. If she is serious about that, she might of course push a little for what is good for the latter, not the chancellor's personal preferences. Overall though, Merkel is likely to become the first chancellor who leaves office on her own terms rather than being voted out or falling victim to changing parliamentary coalitions. | |||
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Or that much talked about country in S.America. | |||
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| Too old to run, too mean to quit! |
If only the subject line of this thread were true! Her departure from German politics is, IMO, long long overdue. Elk There has never been an occasion where a people gave up their weapons in the interest of peace that didn't end in their massacre. (Louis L'Amour) "To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors, is sinful and tyrannical. " -Thomas Jefferson "America is great because she is good. If America ceases to be good, America will cease to be great." Alexis de Tocqueville FBHO!!! The Idaho Elk Hunter | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Guess it's time to dust off this thread. It's taken longer than I thought; against general expectations, the grand coalition government in Berlin has held up so far, and the next regular national elections are still about 18 months away. However, the head of Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, just announced that she will not seek the chancellorship and resign as party leader after a short unlucky reign. See earlier posts about her rise. This comes in an acute political crisis topping off a string of difficult state elections in East Germany. Traditionally, the Left Party - successor to the former socialist state party of the GDR, with some West German far leftists added - has been strong there; to the point where the state of Thuringia has been ruled by a minister president of theirs for the last five years, if a particularly moderate one who is basically a classic social democrat. However, the new AfD has been breaking into their voter demographic with the same anti-establishment, anti-globalization, pro-welfare messages with a right-wing flavor. In summation, the left and right fringe have gained to the point where the center parties find it hard to form majority governments without them in East Germany; a whiff of Weimar, if you want. Social Democrats and Greens have long found in acceptable to enter into coalitions with the Left, like in Thuringia. However, Merkel's CDU has maintained a policy of cooperating with neither the left nor right fringe, despite some East Germans in the party being open for either to secure majorities. In the recent Thuringia elections, the Left became strongest party again, but its "Red-Red-Green" coalition with SPD and Greens lost its majority; in part because the AfD reached second place. The latter could have formed a government with the CDU and classical liberal FDP, but the latter wouldn't support either them or minister president Bodo Ramelow of the Left. So Red-Red-Green tried to form a minority government on a plurality of the state assembly in the third round of voting. Instead, an outsider candidate of the FDP got elected when both CDU and AfD voted for him, the latter instead of their own candidate in a surprise move. Hilarity ensued. The left camp went apoplectic over CDU and FDP voting with the bloody fascists of the AfD (nevermind that SPD and Greens had themselves helped into power next door in Saxony-Anhalt four years after reunification in a similar, but openly premediated way by the then-PDS, the barely-reformed East German state party) . The SPD had had their own leadership shakeup recently when their national head resigned in frustration, and a duo of left-wing outsiders was unexpectedly voted in by the party base over the establishment candidates. Those two had run on criticism of SPD participation in the unloved grand coalition in Berlin, but toned it down after their election. However, they immediately seized upon the Thuringia affair to question staying in national government with the CDU. The national CDU wasn't happy either, and almost everybody wanted new elections in Thuringia as a clean way out of the hangup. However the state CDU disagreed, mostly out of fear for losing further seats. National head Kramp-Karrenbauer, her already waning authority further damaged by the Thuringians going against the non-cooperation dogma - in spirit if not by the letter - accepted that position after a lengthy session with the local group. Which was promptly contradicted by a joint statement of the national CDU and SPD leaderships after a crisis meeting on the future of the Berlin coalition. I guess at that point AKK saw that she would never unite the party behind her for a 2021 run at the chancellorship and, saying that both positions should be in the same hands, announced to resign CDU leadership. What comes next is unclear. The grand coalition isn't out of the woods of Thuringia yet, and we may still see early national elections. But first, a break for the folks who didn't see the thread at the time and will reply to early posts without reading the rest. | |||
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Step by step walk the thousand mile road |
Some needs to shoot a garlic encrusted silver-plated crucifix made of holly that was watered with Holy Water though Merkel's head. Nice is overrated "It's every freedom-loving individual's duty to lie to the government." Airsoftguy, June 29, 2018 | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
The succession fight is now on (again). After AKK's resignation announcement, her previous contenders for CDU leadership - party conservatives Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz - promptly jockeyed for the position once more. Another quickly-suggested candidate was North Rhine-Westphalia state minister president Armin Laschet. Like the others he initially remained officially undeclared, but conventional wisdom was that he would weaken his position as head of the party's biggest state chapter if he passed again now that it was about both CDU leadership and the chancellor candidacy. Notably he popped up as a state politician on a panel at the recent Munich Security Conference where he distanced himself from some of Angela Merkel's policies, despite being generally considered a close ally to her. There was also a suggestion that he, Merz and Spahn could form a leadership team, with the top dog to be determined. While everybody was getting comfortable with that idea, the head of the Bundestag's foreign committee Norbert Röttgen popped up from left field and announced his candidacy. Röttgen is former minister for the environment, but got dumped by Angela Merkel in 2012 after failing to win the minister presidency of his native North Rhine-Westphalia while trying to keep his federal cabinet post as a backup. That makes him the fourth NRW candidate; like Laschet, he's considered to be from the party's liberal wing, but his history means he still has some anti-Merkel credentials. Merz was to officially announce his candidacy at a press conference at 1100 hrs this Tuesday. Laschet and Spahn, who had secretly agreed to form a team as head and vice respectively, promptly stole his thunder by announcing same at 0930 already. For good measure, the first declared contender Röttgen tweeted in the middle of Merz' press conference that he was going to seek a woman for the post of party secretary general if he should win. So the three-way contest between a conservative, a liberal and a mixed team is officially on, and may be resolved at a special convention on 25 April. There are contrary opinions on how much the party base should be involved in the selection. The question whether the winner should also be designated chancellor candidate for 2021 at the same time, rather early, currently also remains open, with arguments for and against; a complication is that the Bavarian CSU is not involved in selection of the CDU head, but should be in that of the joint chancellor candidate. Some have pointed out that in light of how AKK withered on the vine besides Angela Merkel, the next party leader should demand that the chancellor step down quickly. Which would mean early elections, since the Social Democrats have stated that they won't elect another chancellor in the current coalition. Like in the last go-around, Merkel herself has stated she's staying out of the succession process. | |||
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Member |
Auf Wiedersehen Angela. Hoffe die Tür trifft dich auf dem Weg nach draußen in den Arsch. ______________________________________________ Life is short. It’s shorter with the wrong gun… | |||
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Member |
^^^^^ I don't speak German, but I HAVE to assume that translates to "So long, Angela. Don't let the door hit you in the ass". Just a SWAG, based on the disdain for that woman...  "If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne "Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24 | |||
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Bingo! | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
As noted on the German (no) F-35 thread (funny how things are connected):
First an illustration of the above:  The ironic thing is that after one crisis caused a big hit for the popular support of Merkel and her CDU in 2015, she now has an excellent chance of going out on a high note next year after another, which would make her the first German post-war chancellor to leave office on her own terms. Even more ironic because she handled both crises essentially the same way - taking extraordinary measures driven by events and telling people "we can do this". There is just nowhere near the same public polarization about the government response now than there was over the refugee issue, while the impact is actually much bigger.* It's increasingly questionable whether there will be a special convention to decide on the next party leadership before the regular conference in December at all. Meanwhile, the team of Armin Laschet and Jens Spahn has gotten all the media exposure as minister president of the most populous German state (North Rhine-Westphalia) and federal health minister respectively. Friedrich Merz' main claim to fame has been catching the bug himself and home-quaranting for two weeks, then making some unusual compliments on how the Merkel government is handling the crisis. Nobody is even talking of Norbert Röttgen anymore. Depending upon the eventual date of the decisive convention, the Laschet-Spahn duo looks like a shoe-in. Laschet has also made it his platform to push for easing restrictions as soon as possible, while his Bavarian colleague Markus Söder has been in the lead of taking strict measures. That's being seen as a separate competition to become the conservative candidate for the next chancellorship, though Söder has claimed for some time that's not his ambition. However, as head of the Bavarian CSU he has also insisted that the next leader of the national CDU will not be the automatic candidate, but the Bavarians will have to be heard about it; and claims of politicians that they don't want to rise any higher are not necessarily to be taken serious as the decision approaches. * BTW for those who understand German, "The Driven" was just on TV here, based upon the book by the same name, the most detailed and critical account of events in the 2015 crisis. It's available online until 15 July. I found the first half somewhat disjointed and overemphasizing the inner-German powerplays, and dialogue too stilted throughout. But the pieces came together by the middle, and where I thought it did a good job was showing how the refugee issue built up over a long time before that summer while everybody was occupied with other things. Depiction of Bavarian state minister president Horst Seehofer as a tottery old man was exaggerated in my view, but the rivalry with his eventual successor Markus Söder which largely informed subsequent divisions about government actions in the conservative camp is real. | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Revisiting this thread another year later since all the candidates for the chancellorship who matter have now been selected, mostly by their respective inner-party contenders surrendering. The Social Democrats nominated current grand coalition vice chancellor and finance minister Olaf Scholz last August already in a sop to the party's moderate wing, after he had previously lost a base referendum for the national chairmanship to a left-wing duo. This Monday, the Greens' own leadership duo announced that they had agreed between themselves that their female half, Annalena Baerbock, would run as the party's first-ever official chancellor candidate rather than co-chair Robert Habeck. Habeck is arguably better known and more popular outside the party and has actual government experience as a former Schleswig-Holstein state minister, but Baerbock is better connected within the party, and had the being-a-woman thing going for her. While that may be seen as a reversion to ideology over substance by a party considering itself feminist, it is actually a distinguishing mark against both other biggish parties fielding male candidates. As current polls indicate that the next government cannot be formed without the Greens, and they may possibly even lead it, she is seen as holding the key to the outcome (see news piece below). Baerbock certainly reinforced the Green attempt to become a new "people's" or big tent party integrating voters beyond a narrow ideological base in her presentation speech, appealing to a national view of a Germany that invented both the car and the bicycle, revolutionized energy production etc., rather positive tunes for the Greens. She also raised eyebrows both within and outside the party when she gave her first big interview as a candidate to private broadcaster Pro 7; historically, the relationship between the Greens and private TV has been rather distanced, but there was little distance to be seen in the segment that was peculiarly pushed in before the final episodes of the "Chernobyl" mini-series. Her nomination put pressure on Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian siblings of the Christian Social Union to finally agree on a joint candidate of their own after a drawn-out muddled process. Previously, North Rhine-Westphalia state premier Armin Laschet had finally beaten inner-party contenders to be elected new chairman of the CDU, but was still facing competition from his Bavarian colleague and CSU head Markus Söder for the candidacy. Söder was in fact more popular throughout the Union despite playing cute over his ambitions. Historically, conservatives have always looked to a Bavarian minister president as a savior when there was broad discontent with the state of the CDU - but both times one of them actually answered the call, he lost in the general election. With an apparent majority of the CDU base, state chapters and Bundestag group tending towards Söder, the latter declared that he would submit to the bigger party's choice. However, when he went to a meeting with the CDU national board on Monday, the body stuck to Laschet. Söder subsequently reneged on the candidacy, so Laschet it is due to evaporation of alternatives. He has an uphill battle before him though. The COVID crisis bonus for CDU/CSU from last year has long worn off as we went into the third wave with a slow start of vaccinations, leading to new restrictions everyone is tired off. It didn't help that several conservative members of parliament were found to have facilitated public deals with mask makers for generous provisions. See auto-updating polltracker above for recent developments.
https://www.spiegel.de/interna...79-a595-853b26113ca3 | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent |
Well if you look at the auto-updated poll tracker two posts up, the Greens actually took the lead over the Christian Democrats for about two weeks. During that period the nervousness of both Green supporters and opponents was palpable in frequent references to the meteoric rise and fall of Social Democratic candidate Martin Schulz in the polls ahead of the 2017 elections; but for a time, the Greens had only to be quiet and look nice while their main contenders CDU/CSU and SPD were flailing, and mostly hurting themselves. In the SPD, there is increasing worry that their man Olaf Scholz alone will not make any gains, let alone achieve a poll result in the high 20s which he has optimistically announced to be possible. Still he shows no intention to form a shadow cabinet of sorts, and the left-wing party leader duo with which he's ideologically at odds has been notably absent from the stage. The CDU had their own personnel issues after their district chapters in Suhl, Thuringia nominated former head of domestic intelligence Hans-Georg Maaßen (who got relieved in 2018 over controversial statements on the Chemnitz riots following the killing of a Cuban-German by a Syrian) to run for parliament as replacement for incumbent Mark Hauptmann (who was one of the MPs involved in the affair over kickbacks for public mask procurement). As Maaßen has since emerged as a right-winger with a slight conspiratory bend, that was not well received in parts of the party, let alone the political competition. By last week however, some stutter had appeared in the Green run. The party's Baden-Württemberg state chapter started proceedings to expel controversial Tübingen city mayor Boris Palmer from the party after he jumped into the latest racism tempest in a soccer cup, making an inflammatory Facebook post about a black player who had been called a "token black guy" by a board member of club Hertha Berlin. Palmer has frequently angered the party like that, usually over immigration issues. Yet this is not necessarily something the Greens can use in campaign season; it took the SPD years of public fighting to get rid of similarly controversial former Berlin financial senator Thilo Sarrazin. Then with the recent Israeli-Palestinian flare-up, people started asking about Green candidate Annalena Baerbock's ability to deal with international crises like these. She did in fact deliver some ammunition to critics of her inexperience, like crediting Germany's trademark system of a social market economy to SPD policy of the 60s rather than its commonly acknowledged father, 40s/50s CDU minister of economy and later chancellor Ludwig Erhard, in a Bundestag speech; and her initial statements on the conflict in Israel left room for attacks that they were contradictory. Unlike the two other major candidates, she also had to improve on an earlier stance regarding defense cooperation with Israel, as she had been critical on the 2018 deal to deliver additional submarines due to suggestions that they might be used as nuclear platforms. On the interview track, she faced hardball questions over the often-noted moralistic and paternalistic tendencies of her party from public broadcaster ZDF, in marked contrast to the initial extensive interview by private station Pro7. For good measure it emerged that she reported some payments from her party from 2018-2020 as extra income to Bundestag administration well after the required three-month period this March. These are not really huge sums, and the Greens don't pay their leaders a regular salary if they are already Bundestag members. As usual, the real problem are their own high claims to morality, in this case on transparency regarding extra income of MPs, a long-controversial issue. The Greens have demanded that such income should be reported as exact sums rather than in the current rough system of ten levels covering a range of 1,000-10,000 to more than 250,000 Euro annually. Yet Baerbock had hers reported quietly under this system without any publicity at a time everybody was screaming about the Conservatives' kickback affair. It remains to be seen if this impacts her credibility. More entertaining, a national "Fridays for Future" climate strike organizer and Green member attacked CDU candidate Armin Laschet on a political talkshow over legitimizing "racist, anti-Semitic, identitarian and science-denying content" by being silent on Hans-Georg Maaßen's nomination in Thuringia. She didn't elaborate on the anti-Semitism charge when questioned, but sympathetic media helpfully pointed out that Maaßen once shared a link to the blog of some guy from California who allegedly has denied the Holocaust in a since-deleted tweet, and is frequently using terms also used by conspiracy buffs with anti-Semitic tinges, like "globalists", "the Great Reset", etc. That backfired hugely after the international Instagram account of "Fridays for Future" made several pro-BDS and pro-Palestinian posts invoking the blood of martyrs for the land, and Greta Thunberg shared a tweet of Canadian BDS supporter Naomi Klein criticizing only Israeli "war crimes" without mentioning the rocket attacks by Hamas. This led to demands in Germany that the national organization should distance itself. They subsequently tweeted a milquetoast statement that anti-Semitism is "present in many different parts of society" and must be clearly opposed, without naming any names. When pressed, activists elaborated that the national chapter had little influence on what happened in their international social media accounts, but they were in a "clarification process", etc. That was when the second post on the international account hit, on top of a debate about the usual anti-Israeli protests by the local pro-Palestinian camp. All that has led to the Greens dipping below CDU/CSU again for now. The upcoming national Green convention from 11-13 June is the next point of nervousness for friend and foe; the notoriously debate-happy Green base has filed 3,000 motions to amend the campaign platform. One to strike "Germany." from the title that continues "Everything's in it" has already drawn derision and criticism from other parties. If Israel is still going hot in three weeks, acrimonious discussion in a party where sympathies in that conflict are rather divided could be a receipe for embarrassment. For now, the Greens have however managed to pull distinctly ahead of the SPD in projected districts won directly, something that used to be decided between Christian and Social Democrats when they were the two major parties (note again that this has little impact on seat distribution in parliament though, which is decided by the national popular vote).  | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge UPDATE FROM 2018 and 2020: Merkel on the way out. No, seriously this time.
Main Page The Lounge UPDATE FROM 2018 and 2020: Merkel on the way out. No, seriously this time.© SIGforum 2024