SIGforum
Para, will an asteroid do?

This topic can be found at:
https://sigforum.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/320601935/m/1410019364

December 04, 2019, 11:42 AM
flashguy
Para, will an asteroid do?
NASA says there is a 1:3800 chance a pyramid-sized asteroid may crash into the Earth in 2022.
https://thinkamericana.com/nas...-into-earth-in-2022/

The article says it would be the equivalent of 15 kilotons of TNT, which the said was 15 times the size of the Hiroshima A-bomb. They're wrong about that--the Hiroshima bomb was about 15KT.

flashguy




Texan by choice, not accident of birth
December 04, 2019, 12:40 PM
SBrooks
I guess it depends on who it lands on as to how effective it will be at ending the stupidness...


------------------
SBrooks
December 04, 2019, 12:49 PM
Stlhead
if we assume that the area of the worst effect of the possible strike is 100 square miles that would make the hit probability of any given place 1 in 1.9 million. Stack the the 1 in 3800 chances of any strike at all and I think that most of us are pretty safe. If it does hit there is a 100% chance that a mobile home park will be destroyed.
December 04, 2019, 01:18 PM
Georgeair
Article says they gave the exact date but don't include that. What is it, so I can add to my calendar?



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December 04, 2019, 02:21 PM
Pyker
I want it to land on the Veeblefetzer's house at the other end of the block. Old man Veeblefetzer is a prick and his lawn is a disgrace.
December 04, 2019, 02:46 PM
Sig2340
Please, please let it hit Adam Schit.





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December 04, 2019, 02:52 PM
ugeesta
quote:
The asteroid has a diameter of over 420 feet or roughly the size of the Great Pyramid of Giza in Egypt…


Well that clears it up. I was curious what size of pyramid they were thinking




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December 04, 2019, 03:02 PM
2BobTanner
quote:
Originally posted by Georgeair:
Article says they gave the exact date but don't include that. What is it, so I can add to my calendar?


Asteroid warning: NASA tracks a 21,300mph asteroid on possible collision course in 2020 | Science | News | Express.co.uk - Daily Express
3 days ago ·

NASA estimates the earliest date on which the asteroid could strike falls on November 2, 2020. The rocky body dubbed Asteroid 2018 VP1 is an Apollo-type Near-Earth Object or NEO

https://www.express.co.uk/news...0-asteroid-hit-Earth


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December 04, 2019, 03:16 PM
Shaql
So.... right around election day. Huh.





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December 04, 2019, 03:40 PM
egregore
So I guess we'll soon know what the dinosaurs felt like.



A 1:3800 chance isn't that big.
December 04, 2019, 03:49 PM
midwest guy
Who needs a puny asteroid,Haley’s comet is 11 miles long!
December 04, 2019, 03:54 PM
Johnny 3eagles
Comet, comet comet, we want a comet.





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December 04, 2019, 04:20 PM
James in Denver
quote:
Originally posted by flashguy:
NASA says there is a 1:3800 chance a pyramid-sized asteroid may crash into the Earth in 2022.

Wiki is showing 1 in 280 chance in 2020 (from an outside source...NASA SENTRY on 2018VP1).

Wiki: 2018 VP1

NASA: NASA JPL SENTRY data for 2018 VP1

quote:
Alternate Representations for Impact Probability = 4.1e-3
0.41% chance of Earth impact
1 in 240 odds of impact
99.59% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth



----------------------------
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December 04, 2019, 05:36 PM
Balzé Halzé
quote:
Originally posted by Shaql:
So.... right around election day. Huh.


But the news says there's a 99% chance it'll miss.

Hmmm, wait a minute...


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December 04, 2019, 06:29 PM
pwelch001
Haha Balze, nice.
December 04, 2019, 06:33 PM
Grayfox54



It ain't the years, its the mileage.
December 04, 2019, 07:17 PM
Twist
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
quote:
Originally posted by Shaql:
So.... right around election day. Huh.


But the news says there's a 99% chance it'll miss.

Hmmm, wait a minute...


Yeah, we’re hosed.


___________________________
Not giving a damn since...whenever...
December 04, 2019, 07:32 PM
SigSentry
quote:
Originally posted by egregore:
So I guess we'll soon know what the dinosaurs felt like.



A 1:3800 chance isn't that big.


You only have to go back 12,800 years ago to the Younger-Dryas where an estimated 1000-10,000 objects may have impacted the earth as it passed through the Taurid Meteor Stream.
December 04, 2019, 07:37 PM
gearhounds
quote:
Originally posted by James in Denver:
quote:
Originally posted by flashguy:
NASA says there is a 1:3800 chance a pyramid-sized asteroid may crash into the Earth in 2022.

Wiki is showing 1 in 280 chance in 2020 (from an outside source...NASA SENTRY on 2018VP1).

Wiki: 2018 VP1

NASA: NASA JPL SENTRY data for 2018 VP1

quote:
Alternate Representations for Impact Probability = 4.1e-3
0.41% chance of Earth impact
1 in 240 odds of impact
99.59% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

VP1 is only about 7 feet across, and expected to disintegrate in the atmosphere.




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December 04, 2019, 10:30 PM
Kskelton
quote:
Originally posted by Grayfox54:


Haha this made my laugh. I need to find a job where you can’t be wrong. They are saying all the time there’s a 50% chance of rain. No shit, it’s either going to rain or it’s not #50%chance


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