Just like it says. Fox and the daily mail claim a diesel shortage is eminent. I have not really looked into it. To be very honest this is where I get all my news. Anyone got anything on this??

I've heard the same. Filled up my tank this morning just to be on the safe side.

Shortage or BS.....local diesel spiked to $6.38 ----could swear it was in the low-5's last week

Well, if there wasn't going to be one before, there will be now.

Once the news starts reporting on rumors of an impending shortage, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as everyone "stocks up just to be safe", ala 2020 toilet paper.

The resulting huge artificial spike in demand then creates a shortage, and everyone then says: "Wow, they weren't kidding... There really was a shortage! Amazing!"

Daily Mail OFTEN reports on US news our own corrupt media downplays or ignores.

I believe it. They are already rationing heating fuel oil in the northeast like New York, and New England.

Diesel and heating oil are virtually the same thing, made in the same process.

That's days of inventory. We do replenish inventory as we use it.

Will depend on heating season for what will happen with inventory.

That's a great way to start a panic.

Para my apologies, that was not my intent. I just don’t believe the news about anything anymore. I know we have folks in oil and gas on this board and hence, the question.

Its an eminence front...its a put on

My understanding is the number being bandied about is the amount of diesel fuel we have on hand vs the number of days that inventory would last at current demand. In other words, if our production/importation of diesel fuel suddenly stopped, we have enough in inventory to keep up with current demand for 25 days.

We aren’t going to stop producing/importing diesel fuel, so we aren’t going to run out in 25 days. It’s just a measure of supply and demand and it’s pointing towards higher prices.

As para points out, the more it gets hyped, the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Anything for more clicks or views.

Now where did I put those new diesel cans I just bought? I have to get to BJs while it’s still $4.699.

Thinking they were saying that was there was a ~26 day supply in reserve.

If every refinery in the world was shut down at the same time, the timeframe mentioned would be how long we had to crank them back up again.

Can you provide a link to said info? I could be wrong.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...s-fuel-shortage.html

Link

When they say we have 20 days of inventory it doesn't mean we're going to run out in 20 days. It means that if we stopped refining, our current inventory would be out in 20 days, but since we haven't stopped refining...

Better questions to ask:

How many days of diesel inventory do we normally have? Saying we have 20 days or 25 days of inventory doesn't give any context as we live in a just in time (JIT) supply model. The media intentionally doesn't provide this context as they get a lot more clicks and butts in front of TVs.

If 20 days of inventory is lower than normal, is it just temporary (e.g. refineries shutdown for 2 or 3 days due to a hurricane) or is it long-term (e.g. a large refinery's distillation unit burned down)?

If 20 days of inventory is lower than normal, are there likely to be any supply disruptions near term? We're past peak hurricane season and the lower 48 rarely gets blizzards late Oct or early Nov.

I spent a few minutes on EIA's website and found:

Diesel inventory. Nationally, we're storing at about 2013 levels of diesel inventory which is only about 10% lower than PreCOVID inventory. PADD 1A (New England) we're storing about double the 2013 levels, and PADD 1B (NY, PA, etc) we're storing 2013 levels. PADD 3 (TX, LA, MI) is where most of the refineries are located that ship to PADD 1 and they're storing 2013 levels. Prices are at about 2013 levels so inventory being the same makes sense to me.

Refinery utilization. Since we live in a JIT supply model, we need to look at refinery utilization. Nationally, we're operating at normal refinery utilization levels. PADD 1 doesn't have enough refineries, but those little tikes are operating at their normal capacity for the last 2 years. PADD 3 is at our normal refining capacity which is enormous (in fact, it's world class).

Crude oil inventory. Crude oil prices are high so the industry has 2002 levels of in storage, but it's still a metric shit ton waiting to be refined into gasoline, diesel, jet A, etc.

Usage. I took a quick look at usage and usage is down slightly (to be fair prices are high).

Diesel exports. They are in their normal range.

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Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

quote:

Originally posted by 1flynDO:
Para my apologies, that was not my intent.

My apologies. I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to the news article.

quote:

Originally posted by 1flynDO:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...s-fuel-shortage.html

Link

That's a shit article.
1. It's about the UK not the US.
2. They even admit the UK's risk is inflation not rationing

I have been watching this number for months.

It is not pretty but it is not doom and gloom yet.

The inventory is at a 30-year low.

With the heating season coming up IF it is a very cold winter we could see a problem with supply.

If it is a mild winter lots of people with be called chicken little.

A large refinery is about to come back online from seasonal transition.

If they start pushing out extra diesel instead of some gasoline, everyone stays warm, but we may have a price spike in winter blend gas.

Natural gas is also going up, but that is due more to higher exports than domestic supply and demand.

With all the hand ringing with doom and gloom for Europe, it looks like their natural gas prices might be lower than predicted.

Scandinavian countries and more exports from the US is increasing supply more than anticipated.

Diesel supplies are tight.

If Russia hits a few pipelines that are not their own, it could be a new ball game.

Preaching to the choir, but the east coast needs to get with it and build a new refinery or 3 or so asap, I think between the Carolinas to Delaware. Too much NIMBY.
.

Well I was empty and needed to fill up any way. I usually try not to get too low just in case. $4.69/gallon here.

Darn the tractor's low and I meant to bring my 3 empty 5 gallon cans into town with me this evening but forgot.

When I still had my hay business we burned about 2500 gallons of off road diesel per year. Over the next 10 years diesel tripled and fertilizer went with it. They are inextricably linked. The cost has doubled again in the past two years. All of our food is produced with diesel engines, from irrigation pumps to tractors and harvesting machines, all the products farmers use are carried by diesel engines and then our food and all other goods comes all the way from field to supermarket by diesel power. At the end of this year's harvest season, the cost of agricultural products will skyrocket. If Mama is shocked at the grocery bill today, check back in 6 months. The good news is that American farmers can produce so much that we will not starve. Right up to the point that agriculture is no longer viable. The cost of diesel affects the cost of EVERYTHING. But the stupid bastards in government who control energy policy don't seem to get the connection. The clueless lunatic greenies need to be marginalized to turn this around.