None of this is meant to demean/belittle the physical pain and economic destruction that those in Irma's path are experiencing. But something should be said to point out the lies and deception being perpetrated by those who attempt to blame Irma's strength on "Global Warming"/"Climate Change".

The Gaia Worshipers are insisting that Hurricane Irma is the worstest, most powerfullest, most destructive hurricane of all time. And, of course, they blame that on our failure to arrest anthropogenic global warming.

But, when you look at the facts, Irma is NOT the worst of all time. Depending on how you look at it, it may be tied for second worst (with a handful of others also tied for second place) on a wind velocity basis or twelveth worst on a pressure basis.

This article addresses the facts: LINK

There are LOTS of embedded charts and graphs and links in the article; you'll want to go to the URL to see them.

quote:

Hurricane Irma Is NOT the Most Powerful Atlantic Hurricane Ever Recorded.
David Middleton / September 7, 2017

Hurricane Irma is really bad. It may be the worst storm to hit the U.S. since 1935… But it is NOT the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. So… Why do they have to lie about this?

[imbedded link at URL] Hurricane Irma, the most powerful in recorded history, makes landfall in Caribbean islands

[imbedded link at URL] Category 5 Irma Becomes Most Powerful Hurricane to Form in the Atlantic Ocean

[imbedded link at URL] Hurricane Irma becomes most powerful storm ever recorded in Atlantic Ocean

[imbedded link at URL] Hurricane Irma Is Now The Most Powerful Atlantic Ocean Storm In Recorded History

quote:

Fresh off the back of the devastating Hurricane Harvey, the US is preparing for an even more dangerous storm – Hurricane Irma.

With wind speeds of 300 kilometers per hour (185 miles per hour), Irma now ranks as the most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. It is the second most powerful in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, behind Hurricane Allen in 1980 that hit the latter two with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph).

[…]

IFL Science!

Does IFL stand for “I FLunked” Science?

Geography 101

The Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are in the Atlantic Ocean, just as much as the Sargasso Sea is in the Atlantic Ocean.

[imbedded graphic] atlantic-ocean-map-1
http://www.whatarethe7continents.com/atlantic-ocean/

quote:

Caribbean Sea, suboceanic basin of the western Atlantic Ocean, lying between latitudes 9° and 22° N and longitudes 89° and 60° W. It is approximately 1,063,000 square miles (2,753,000 square km) in extent. To the south it is bounded by the coasts of Venezuela, Colombia, and Panama; to the west by Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico; to the north by the Greater Antilles islands of Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico; and to the east by the north-south chain of the Lesser Antilles, consisting of the island arc that extends from the Virgin Islands in the northeast to Trinidad, off the Venezuelan coast, in the southeast. Within the boundaries of the Caribbean itself, Jamaica, to the south of Cuba, is the largest of a number of islands.

Britannica

Gulf of Mexico

quote:

The Gulf of Mexico is a smaller part of the Atlantic Ocean, but it is the ninth largest body of water in the world.

[…]

Deepsea Waters

Describing Irma as the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded is like calling Ted Williams the all-time American league home run leader because he hit the most home runs at Fenway Park.

Among the 24 most intense Atlantic hurricanes since 1924, Irma is currently tied for second in wind speed.

Maximum Sustained
Storm Year Winds (mph)
Allen 1980 190
“Labor Day” 1935 185
Gilbert 1988 185
Wilma 2005 185
Irma 2017 185
Mitch 1998 180
Rita 2005 180
“Cuba” 1932 175
Janet 1955 175
Camille 1969 175
David 1979 175
Andrew 1992 175
Katrina 2005 175
Dean 2007 175
“Cuba” 1924 165
Isabel 2003 165
Ivan 2004 165
Hattie 1961 160
Hugo 1989 160
“Bahamas” 1929 155
Floyd 1999 155
Igor 2010 155
Opal 1995 150
Gloria 1985 145

[Go to URL to view chart of max sustained winds by year]

And tied for 12th place according to atmospheric pressure:

Storm Year Minimum Atmospheric
Pressure (hPa)
Wilma 2005 882
Gilbert 1988 888
“Labor Day” 1935 892
Rita 2005 895
Allen 1980 899
Camille 1969 900
Katrina 2005 902
Mitch 1998 905
Dean 2007 905
“Cuba” 1924 910
Ivan 2004 910
Irma 2017 913
Janet 1955 914
“Cuba” 1932 915
Isabel 2003 915
Opal 1995 916
Hugo 1989 918
Gloria 1985 919
Hattie 1961 920
Floyd 1999 921
Andrew 1992 922
“Bahamas” 1929 924
David 1979 924
Igor 2010 924

[Go to URL to view chart of minimum barometric pressure by year]

“The Most Powerful Atlantic Ocean Storm In Recorded History” meme fits the narrative: Global warming is causing hurricanes to become more severe… Another lie.

Hurricanes are not increasing in severity

The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane climatology page has a handy list of Atlantic Basin tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes from 1851-2014. There is no statistically meaningful trend in hurricane frequency or severity.

[Go to URL to view chart of Atlantic Basin storm totals by year]

While there might be a somewhat statistically significant increase in the number of tropical storms (R² = 0.2274), this could simply be due improvements in the detection and identification of storms at sea… There is no statistically meaningful trend in the numbers of hurricanes or major hurricanes.

There are also no statistically meaningful trends in the rates at which tropical storms are “blossoming” into hurricanes or major hurricanes:

[Go to URL to view charts showing %hurricane/tropical storm over years, and major hurricanes over years]

Records are made to be broken

Irma came very close to breaking a wind speed record. So what?

quote:

The probability, pn(1), that the nth observation of a series xm= x1, x2, … xn has a higher value than the previous observations [pn(1) = Pr(xn > xi |i < n)] can be expressed as:

pn(1)= 1/n

provided the values in series are iid random variables.

(Benestad, 2003)

In 1941, Ted Williams had a .406 batting average. He was the last major league baseball player to hit over .400. While each at bat had its own independent probability, if Ted Williams had 5 at bats in a game, he probably had 2 base hits. While Irma has less than a 1% chance of breaking Allen’s wind speed record, the sum of individual probabilities since 1924 indicate that it’s about time for that record to fall.

[Go to URL to view chart of real and expected records
Y-axis is the sequential number of new records.]

See sheet 1 of the following spreadsheet for expected record calculations:

[Active link to the spreadsheet is at the URL] AtlanticStormTotalsTable (1)

How did we ever survive the Medieval Warm Period?

If warmer waters inevitably lead to more severe hurricanes… How did humanity survive the Medieval Warm Period? Or the Minoan Warm Period? There must have been Category 9 hurricanes every year in 1000 BC!!! (/SARC)

As always,

Sap

Don't confuse me with the facts.

quote:

Originally posted by 220-9er:
Don't confuse me with the facts.

Those aren't facts. They are statistics, fascinating but worthless for divining the future, albeit more scientific than sheep entrails.

Top Scientists Warn: Sea Gods Angry

[ed. note: well that didn't take long. CNN "science" "writer" Alan Weisman examines the Icelandic volcano eruption and deduces the cause: an angry Gaia striking back at us carbon sinners. In honor of Earth Week, I'm recycling... this bit that first appeared here in Nov 2004. Hat tip: Ed Driscoll]

Washington, DC - Pointing to the devastating weekend Indian Ocean tsunami that left over 24,000 dead, an international blue ribbon committee of climatologists and ecoscientists today issued a stark warning that man-made pollutants have increasingly "make water spirits angry."

The blunt conclusion prefaced a 2300 page meta-analysis of hundreds of scientific studies and computer models detailing links between human industrial activity and wrathful eco-deities. Entitled "Fire Bad: Fire Very Bad," the report warns that the planet faces additional catastrophies unless drastic regulatory action is taken to appease Earthen-furies.

"Unclean money devils anger sacred water spirit Tai-Waku," explained Martin Knudson of Scripps Oceanic Institute. "He now call angry to son the whale, 'make slap with anger-tails! Bring vengeance-surf to villagers!'"

While most empirical evidence supports the theory of wrathful whale-tail slappings, some scientists are exploring alternative hypotheses for the weekend tsunami. Ecobiologist Jane Geary of UC Santa Cruz points to mounting evidence that the ocean spirit-world may have been driven to gastrointestinal rage by gas-guzzling SUVs.

"Thunder-wagon make smoke cloud of greenhouse gas," explained Geary. "hungry Tai-Waku eat smoke from thunder-wagon, pass giant wind with mighty fury."

Peter Novak, chief science officer of the Sierra Club, dismissed Geary's "Divine Fart" theory, arguing it was more likely that SUVs had triggered the tsunami via a spirit underword sexual encounter.

"Wheels of thunder-wagons wake up Big Earth Spirit-Mother, make to crazy tingle in hairy child-place. She now go to water lair of Tai-Waku, make big angry love on tectonic plate," said Novak. "Big Earth Spirit-Mother say, 'if ocean rocking, don't come a-knocking.'"

Although they disagree on the precise causes of the wrathful spirit world, scientists were largely unanimous in recommending immediate global regulatory action. Remedial steps suggested in the report include ratification of the Kyoto treaty, elimination of automobiles, volcanic altars for virgin sacrifices, creation of a sustainable urine-based economy, and improved faculty dental benefits.

"If not act now, it too late," said report editor Paul Erlich of Stanford University.

Erlich, whose 1978 best seller "Ice Time Come Soon" is widely credited with saving millions of lives by warning of the massive age of glaciation that threatened Earth during the 1980s, said inaction might anger the spirit world further.

"Me not know when Tai-Waku make wrath again," said Erlich. "Me need more grant money."

<--- shocked!

I thought it was Trump's fault.

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:
. . .Those aren't facts. They are statistics, fascinating but worthless for divining the future, albeit more scientific than sheep entrails.

Beg to differ. The article is replete with facts. And who said anything about the future? The issues at hand are 1) whether or not it is true/accurate to state that Irma is the worst hurricane in history, 2) whether or not Irma is the worst due to anthropogenic global warming.

FACT: 11 other hurricanes since 1924 have had lower barometric pressure than Hurricane Irma

FACT: 5 other hurricanes since 1924 have had winds faster than or equal to Hurricane Irma

Inescapable conclusion: Hurricane Irma is NOT "the most powerful in recorded history". Nor is Hurricane Irma the "Most Powerful Hurricane to Form in the Atlantic Ocean/most powerful storm ever recorded in Atlantic Ocean". Consequently, Hurricane Irma also cannot be "The Most Powerful Atlantic Ocean Storm In Recorded History".

b

quote:

Originally posted by Gustofer:
I thought it was Trump's fault.

The idiot Jennifer Lawrence said it was because of Trump. ref Drudge. She is a pretty little thing, but empty headed.

We all know this has been going on for a lot longer than 1924 - just no wind or barometeric measurments to compare.

The Spanish Treasure Fleets of 1715 and 1733: Disasters Strike at Sea

The sun disappeared and the wind increased in velocity coming from the east and east northeast. The seas became very giant in size, the wind continued blowing us toward shore, pushing us into shallow water. It soon happened that we were unable to use any sail at all…and we were at the mercy of the wind and water, always driven closer to shore. Having then lost all of our masts, all of the ships were wrecked on the shore, and with the exception of mine, broke to pieces."1

This violent storm off the coast of Florida in July 1715 ravaged 11 Spanish ships as they attempted to return to Spain. From the mid 16th to the mid 18th century, heavily-armed fleets such as this plied the waters between Spain and the Americas transporting massive amounts of New World treasure. Through this treasure fleet system, Spain created a mighty New World empire and became the most powerful nation in Europe. The fleets' return voyage—when the ships were laden with silver, gold, gemstones, tobacco, exotic spices, and indigo—was the most dangerous. Pirates and privateers from rival European countries threatened to seize the precious cargoes and jeopardize Spain's dominance of the Americas. The greatest danger, however, came not from enemy countries, but from unexpected and deadly hurricanes.

In 1715 and again in 1733, Spain's treasure fleets were devastated by hurricanes off the coast of Florida. Although the Spanish managed to recover some treasure, much more remained on the ocean floor. The sunken ships lay forgotten for more than 200 years until modern treasure hunters discovered several of them. Today, the remains of two of the ships—the Urca de Lima from the 1715 fleet and the San Pedro from the 1733 fleet—are protected as Florida Underwater Archaeological Preserves. These ships are time capsules from a bygone era and can reveal much about the history of the mighty maritime system that helped shape the Americas.

https://www.nps.gov/nr/twhp/ww...ssons/129shipwrecks/

Other examples:

Benjamin C. Cromwell was at her moorings, either preparing to take a cargo of lumber and naval stores aboard, or already having done so on August 1, 1899, when the 2nd hurricane of the season struck St. George Island and the Apalachee Bay area of Florida. Some 15 ships moored at Dog Island, Florida, including Benjamin C. Cromwell were beached and deemed unsalvageable.

The Isaac Allerton was an American ship that sunk 15 miles (24 km) east-southeast of the island of Key West in the Florida Keys near the Saddlebunch Keys on August 28, 1856 resulting from a hurricane. Artifacts from the ship are currently on display at the Key West Shipwreck Museum in Key West.

Eugene E. Bates of Key West bought Katherine K., but she was swept away in the 1919 Florida Keys hurricane at Key West on 9–10 September 1919 before the Navy could deliver her to Bates.

The Santa Margarita was a Spanish ship that sank in a hurricane in the Florida Keys about 40 miles (64 km) west of the island of Key West in 1622.

A couple of pertinent links which point out that the hysterical accusations in the media (the ones that blame Irma on anthropogenic warming) are nonsense:

At Reason: LINK1

At The Blaze: LINK2

It should have been named Hurricane Hillary. Then it would fizzle out and fail at the last minute.

This planet has had hurricanes since the oceans and atmosphere formed. All this sounds worse than it is because of people like Shepard "we're all gonna DIE!!!11" Smith and many others.

Now that Irma turned out to be not as bad as it was forecast to be, does that mean Anthropogenic Warming is a good thing?

Sorry Sapper, your list betrays you. Three of the top wind speeds were Cuba, Cuba, and Bahamas, in '32, '24, '29. We all know those were caused by Republicans driving their SUV's.

You can't use weather events to disprove anthropogenic climate change. We can use weather events to support our claims of it though. So piss off.

quote:

Originally posted by darthfuster:
We can use weather events to support our claims of it though.

Not convincingly.