I think Taiwan becomes a nightmare for China. I'm sure there are collaborationist parts of their nation - but given what has happened to HK, I'm sure there are lots of people who have no desire to be ruled by Xi.

Its like Russia trying to go into Latvia or Lithuania, again.

It would be Iraq, but against an educated population - and TMK, it wouldn't be too hard for a Taiwanese patriot to be able to pass among the overall population of Beijing, etc.

While I wont say that losing ROC to China is a foregone conclusion, I cant help but think we lack the will as a nation to defend them. I would guess we might step up if China turns to the Philippines. Maybe.

Taiwan will be taken in conjunction with Ukraine Xi and Putin have plans probably in the works, China will take what it wants in the next 3 years without a consequence, including aiding North Korea take the South, we are not going to do a blessed thing. Putin was chuckling at Sleepy Joe on the Video call, Putin knows Ukraine is already his, his dilemma is what he’s going to take next Poland, Czech Republic? Joe or whomever is actually making the decisions doesn’t stand a chance against either Putin or Xi.

Edited. Thanks!

Russia tries for Poland, and there will be bombings in Moscow.

quote:

Originally posted by Aglifter:
Russia tries for Poland, and there will be bombings in Moscow.

I hope you’re 110% correct, but I’m certain that will be from IRA version of Polish resistance and not the United States or NATO.

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
Once we simply accept that China taking Taiwan is inevitable, the Chinese win for free. Why on earth would we accept that China's taking Taiwan is inevitable when they haven't managed to do it yet and it is still very much an open question as to whether they can?

This is a China, and by default, Russia, topic. Russia has amassed a ton of troops on the border with the Ukraine. They are obviously in the midst of planning an invasion.

Russia wants Ukraine.

China wants Taiwan.

You know it. Everyone knows it.

Both countries WILL take those countries, when the time is right.

When is the time right? Simple. When the US "elects" an absolute imbecile that doesn't know how to tie his shoes any longer, as the president of the United States.

Put 10,000 American troops and equipment on the border in Ukraine. Put 10,000 American troops and equipment in Taiwan. No invasion will happen. As long as the administration , and the President, has the balls to back up that threat.

China is playing the long game. They will build, and build, and build, up their military and ability, and wait for the correct time. President Biden is probably their absolute best time, well, ever.

Biden bowed down to a bunch of goat roapers with a few Ak47 rifles in Afghanistan.... and the world watched. Couldn't even plan an evacuation of our assets, allies, and soldiers even after being in country for 20 years. You don't think the world saw that and said, wow, the US (and allies) with THIS guy in charge, is extremely vunerable?

Oh, I know that it would be the Polish equivalent of the IRA - and that's what should keep Russia away.

To this discomfort of a military friend of mine, I explained that there's really no difference between carpet bombing a village, and using a WMD on a government building, from the perspective of a villager.

With any president, especially Biden, dealing with our two main adversaries simultaneously in Ukraine and Taiwan, our plate would be mighty full. Trying to keep North Korea from wanting to jump in at the same time would just add to that juggling act.

With all of our domestic enemies, which include but are not limited to the general leftists, the media, the democrat party, big business, etc, I double down on us being fracked!

If Kendall spent anytime on the ground in a firefight & in need of CAS from an A-10, he’d change his mind quicker than his drawers…

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
Kendall is just another asshole that wants to get rid of the A10 because it just isn’t sexy enough.

BS!

quote:

Originally posted by 18DAI:
For the last three decades the USAF has focused on Hi Tech and Stealth technology, squandering large percentages of their budget persuing it. To the detriment of maintenance, modernization and force multipliers.

They could have ordered larger numbers of F16s and F15s even F22S, all at once, rather than stretching out orders over decades - propping up manufacturers production lines - while driving costs up tremendously. But they didn't. They bet the farm on the "Penguin" F35. Which has gained weight, underperformed and costs a fortune. Hows that working out for them?

How many Chinese fighters are Hi Tech? How many are Stealth technology? How many are just low tech missle carriers with decent range, maneuverability and avionics? How many of those do they have in service currently? I rest my case. Regards 18DAI

Either way it could be tough on the USA to fight the PRC. If they couldn't beat us with warfighting technology they might do it with sheer larger amounts of "lesser" munitions material. If you run out of cruise missiles, then run out of "regular" munitions, the side with more "regular" stuff may prevail. I doubt the PRC is lacking in relative "regular" materiel, but I don't actually know. But why I never see this discussed I have no idea. My retired Marine friend told me "you can't bring enough ammunition, more is better". To me that means something considering his multiple long combat tours in the middle east as a Transport Master Sergeant and Ma Deuce gunner. So if we can't win with superior technology because the other side has more boolits than we do, then they take us out with their extra lesser munitions after we're out of ammo so to speak.

China doesn't have the sealift capacity to take Taiwan. And even if they did, an invasion would destroy all the industry and infrastructure that the Chinese want. Taiwan's military isn't the most advanced but its far from obsolete. Taiwan could make an invasion very costly.

An air and sea blockade of the island on the other hand, could possibly strangle Taiwan in just a few months. I'm sure President Potato will respond with decisiveness and skill; right after his nap.

Russia is by far the much greater threat. If they go to war for real (and it looks like they plan to do just that) they can probably steamroll Ukraine in a few weeks. I'm sure President Potato will respond with decisiveness and skill; right after his nap.

I wonder if Russia will stop at the Ukraine. They can just bypass Poland to the north, Hungary to the south, roll through Slovakia and the Czech Republic; and right into Germany. There's not much distance there. They could probably do it in a few days.

Not like there's much to stop them. Europe in general and NATO in particular have been disarming since the late 1990's. Germany has maybe a hundred? a hundred and twenty? modern Leopard Main Battle Tanks that might pass for operational. Maybe a hundred operational Typhoon fighters. Maybe.

France isn't much better off. The UK is the strongest of the European/NATO powers but they don't have much either. A few hundred Challenger MBT's and a about a hundred Typhoon's and a handful of F35's.

None of that is stopping a couple hundred thousand Russian troops with three thousand MBT's and another six or seven thousand IFV's, AFV's and APC's.

REFORGER? We won't have the time.

This is the weakest Europe has been in generations. The U.S is embroiled in incredible internal turmoil and led by a drooling, retarded puppet who is controlled by a corrupt, evil cabal of liberal elitists.

If the Russian's stop at the Ukraine border it will be by their choice and their choice only. I'm not sure I would if I was in Putin's position. The conditions that currently exist have never really occurred before and might not ever occur again and it offers an opportunity to roll up all of Europe in a way that not even Hitler had almost a hundred years ago.

But at least we got rid of mean tweet, orange guy. Anyone think Russia and China would be pulling this shit otherwise?

After we eliminated the Iraqi AF and ground based air defenses. Can we be sure we can do that with the Chinese?

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:
respectable results for a low-tech aircraft IMO:


Iraq Assets Destroyed by A-10's During the Gulf War 1

987 tanks destroyed
501 Armor Personnel Carriers (APC) destroyed
249 Command Posts (CP) destroyed
11 Frog missile launchers destroyed
281 Military structures destroyed
96 Radar installations destroyed
72 Bunkers destroyed
9 SAM sites destroyed
8 Fuel tanks destroyed
2,000 other military vehicles
1,306 trucks
53 SCUD missiles and launchers
10 aircraft on the ground destroyed
Suppressed enemy air defenses
Attacked early warning radars

https://www.2951clss-gulfwar.com/statistics.htm

I'm not a crazy A-10 fan boy. I am former Army so I don't have a 'dog in the fight'. But I can appreciate the Air Force straddles several different imperatives: Strategic Air, Tactical Air, Missile Command, Satellite / Space, etc.... They don't 'embrace' the ground support role much and to some extent that's understandable given their other important missions.

But the former infantryman in me loves seeing tanks and bunkers getting obliterated.

(BTW-- i enjoy these types of threads i usually end up learning something)

---------------------------------------------------------

IIRC, it was GEN. John Boyd, who lamented in the mid to late 70s, that if the USAF did not eliminate the corruption in the developement and aquisition process, they would eventually use their entire budget to procure one plane. And have to take turns flying it.

And I am pretty sure that he was the one who said that due to corruption and fraud in the procurement process, a modern fighter jet would be, pound for pound, cheaper to make out of solid gold. Anyone know the gross weight of an F35? Regards 18DAI

I don’t know why everybody doesn’t support the A10. It doesn’t need to establish air superiority. With what these new planes cost now, I wouldn’t mind seeing a thousand Sandy’s over a battlefield. I’m nostalgic that way.

This article is very Tom Clancy-ish, but it seems feasible, especially with the container ship backlog at ports now.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/4...an-horse-containers/

Just the headline; I’ll leave it to you Navy guys to discuss the reality of it.

“China feared to be hiding missiles in shipping containers for Trojan Horse-style plan to launch attack ANYWHERE in world”

Probably because guided AA exists.

quote:

Originally posted by spunk639:
Taiwan will be taken in conjunction with Ukraine Xi and Putin have plans probably in the works, China will take what it wants in the next 3 years without a consequence, including aiding North Korea take the South, we are not going to do a blessed thing. Putin was chuckling at Sleepy Joe on the Video call, Putin knows Ukraine is already his, his dilemma is what he’s going to take next Poland, Czech Republic? Joe or whomever is actually making the decisions doesn’t stand a chance against either Putin or Xi.

I fear you may be correct.

quote:

Originally posted by 18DAI:
And I am pretty sure that he was the one who said that due to corruption and fraud in the procurement process, a modern fighter jet would be, pound for pound, cheaper to make out of solid gold. Anyone know the gross weight of an F35?

Gross weight of the heaviest F35 variant is around 30,000 pounds.

Gold is currently around $1,784 per ounce.

That'd be roughly $856 million for a solid gold F35.

You could get 11 regular F35s for that same amount.

Sell Taiwan nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them themselves (thinking IRBMs.) Given them the command codes. Launching them would be their decision not ours. This flips the script entirely. Of course the Chinese would be hella pissed. Could do the same with Ukraine.

quote:

Originally posted by sns3guppy:
At the end of the day, if the Chinese decide to invade Taiwan, no amount of tactical aircraft based in Taiwan will make a dent. The idea that the Chinese could be held back, should they elect to take Taiwan by force, is laughable. Not even a serious thought.

Taiwan is a very small place in very close proximity to the Chinese mainland, and a place that the Chinese consider theirs, a part of China. After the saber-rattling, Taiwan exists at the pleasure of the mainland, much like Hong Kong did. Beijing already made clear its position on Hong Kong. It's been clear on Taiwan, too.

Much as we'd all love to beat our chests and promise to intervene, it's far too costly, and not sustainable. If the Chinese want it, it's theirs.