When trying to be prepared for the unthinkable, and especially the reasonably possible, the first thing we should be thinking about is “What should we be concerned about and prepared for?” The reason I’m interested in a serious discussion involving different people about the question is that it’s very easy to become focused on one’s own particular situation—and as we perceive it.

One of the things a friend who worked as a county emergency manager did was to prepare a matrix of hazards that could affect my community. It not only listed various hazards but also evaluated their likelihood and the sorts of things that would be necessary in response if they occurred.

Where I live there is absolutely no chance of a tsunami or hurricane. I’ve lived here for over 30 years and there has never been a reported tornado in the area. But what could be a significant disaster for the community? A moderately-high likelihood event would be a blizzard that would cut off all motor traffic in and out for a few days. Another would be a large area power outage that might also last for days, or longer. A wildfire had a significant local effect very recently.

Once we’ve identified the threats and hazards to be aware of, then what? How would they affect us individually, and what would we do to mitigate them?

Can we evacuate to a safer location or where the power is still on? Would that be practicable? If so, what would an evacuation for us involve? Some people evidently don’t like or don’t believe there’s any reason to think about or discuss a major catastrophe that would require mass population movements, but others seem to think about and (to some degree) plan for nothing else.

I’m also curious about some specific things I often see discussed.

“I have guns and lots of ammunition.” Okay, for what reason? The obvious usual answer is to defend ourselves against marauding bands of people looking to pillage others for survival. If that’s a concern, what goes with it? One or two people acting together aren’t going to be able to defend themselves against a “band,” no matter how well armed.

“I can grow my own food.” If we’re thinking that may be necessary, it obviously means we believe that a disaster’s effects will last a long time, but it also involves other assumptions. First is that we will be left alone by the other survivors to permit us to do something that keeps us in one place. The other issue is of course do we have the modern tools that make modern agriculture possible, and more important, how long? What happens when we run out of fuel for the tractor? How long will our fertilizer and seeds last? Do our plans consider those other factors?

If it’s not an unlikely catastrophe that would require us to survive alone or in a tiny band with others for some years as a minimum, what are we concerned about and believe we should be prepared for?

I'm of the "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" mindset. I think the worst is grid down or financial collapse. Pretty much everything else you can move away from. Complete grid down, folks will go batshit crazy when the food and meds run out. Financial collapse, people will go batshit crazy as soon as the banks lock their doors.

I'm fortunate. I'll be dead about 2 weeks after the drugs run out so I only need enough preps to last about 4 months.

It’s my opinion that most peppers, myself included, aren’t truly prepared for what they may actually face. Most have a dream of zombies or some event that mirrors the “Patriots” stories.

I’ve tried to be more realistic the past few years. 1 month worth of water. 3 months worth of food. First aid, candles, cordage, etc.

Having 36 ARs doesn’t help feed my kids.

When I lived in Florida it was hurricanes. Folks learned to prep well. 2 weeks food and water, a generator and fuel. Pretty simple.

Up here it’s most likely a winter storm, power goes out pretty often up here so I’m looking into a generator and solar battery backup. Solar doesn’t make as much sense here as it did in Florida though. So it would be secondary to a generator.

I could also see riots in Chicago or Milwaukee having some effect, but that shouldn’t disrupt our daily lives too much.

Anything long term that leaves me having to grow my own food isn’t on my radar at this time. I’m hopeful nothing of that magnitude happens before we can get out in the country and be better prepared for that type of event. Living more off grid, where water, heat, and electricity isn’t provided by the city. If I can get set up in that situation I’d also have a years worth of food or more stored and be better suited to handle long-term issues. Having to move often for work makes it impractical to make long-term plans and the resources spent to make it work isn’t in our budget at this time. The next resident would enjoy the benefits, not us.

Prep had taken on a different tone after I retired from LE. I was no longer restricted from leaving an area if societal conditions started getting out of hand.

We don't get snow or tornados here. Even out heavy rains/flooding only last a couple of days...because I live in the suburbs of a major city. While CA is reputed to be subject to earthquakes, the frequency is much less than regular tornados or hurricane's other states experience. A major catastrophe in this area would be a wild fire...but where I live, it would mostly be the poor air quality from the smoke.

If a fire were to actually affect our living conditions, we would just get in out cars and leave the area. There are two major highways within a couple of miles and several backroads out of town. I lived through the planning for Y2K and the Rodney King riots and kept stuff either packed or rotated.

That really only leaves a failure in the grid leaving us without power and/or water, which are relatively simple to address...helps when your neighbors have pools, so you only have to be concerned with potable water until power is restored.

When you're Chinese, you always have a large bag of rice in the house and cases of SPAM

Living here in Chicago presents many possible problems.
Civil unrest is a big one, but almost anything that would cause shortages of food and water could cause huge problems in just a matter of days.
This could be the result of weather or civil emergency.
It would be a free for all!

We recently moved to North MS (on the TN state border) and 9 months after having moved here we faced an Ice Storm followed by single digit temp’s that lasted four days. We and everyone in this city and county lost all power for at least five days with some losing power for two weeks because a TVA main line failed and locally frozen trees dropped on power lines and broke poles all over the city and county.

Once the three inches of ice started melting the local power crews had to work around the clock to replace broken lines and poles from all of the trees that fell from the weight of the ice. Having no power, high temps hovering around 30F for five days with single digits at night was a really scary thing because there was very limited communication tools for two days (cell tower in our home area was down for almost two days also). The good news is we had a natural gas heater in our living room so we put up blankets and sheets to isolate the living room from the rest of the house and that is where we lived for five days.

Prior to the storm, Local news said the storm was going to be North of our area but we were close enough that I decided to get ready just in case. I am glad I did because we ended up feeding three families and helped two others with our “tools” (chain saw, small propane bottles and Mr. Buddy Heater, small portable generator, gas, grill charcoal, propane weed killing torch used to melt ice, and bags of salt). The sad part is I learned real quick we were not as prepared as we should have been, even though I started buying what I thought we would need three days before the storm hit. Why - Because those who knew we had these items came to us first to ask for help, which we provided. We had neighbors that we barely knew, having lived here less than a year, asking for help when they heard the generator running and saw lights on in our home after dark.

So back to the OP’s original question - Ice Storm or any other man made or natural disaster that could cause us to lose power and the ability to leave our home for multiple weeks.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: sigarmsp226,

Total grid down/EMP type situation. Think if you could survive like it was 150 years ago and prepare for that. It can be done without a whole lot of effort. Folks just need to take the initiative to get ready for it.

In my area the most probable is a hurricane. Ive lived through a few and ive seen how fast people get crazy. Fighting in the gas line, clearing out store shelves, waiting in long lines for everything (food, gas, ice etc.). I'm already prepared for those.

Second I think most likely (being fairly close to the border by a major city) would be a large terrorist attack.

I really dont see an EMP happening since it would trigger a major war and possibly use of nukes to annihilate the perps. No country would do that without expecting total destruction in retaliation.

quote:

Originally posted by Gustofer:
Total grid down/EMP type situation. Think if you could survive like it was 150 years ago and prepare for that. It can be done without a whole lot of effort. Folks just need to take the initiative to get ready for it.

Agreed. This is the most likely scenario for a long term disaster in my area.

"Natural" disasters, aka weather, I'm reasonably prepared for

Winter weather related isolation and power outage is the most likely. Earthquake is theoretically high on the list, but I am skeptical of the claims of what may be due to happen in the near future.

For the weather and power outage we will stay home and enjoy the quiet. For an earthquake we likely have to leave if it is big enough to disrupt power or food supplies in the area. For earthquake the preparation is to get the house hardened such as strapping the water heater to the wall, plus the normal food and water preps if the house is livable.

An EMP or other long term disaster that takes us back 200 years we are unable to be self sufficient in the long term. Our age and location makes growing food or having livestock impossible.

I am keeping an eye on the magnetic pole shift, as it could mean long term difficulties but not teowawki.

Associated with the pole shift is the galactic magnetic field shift and a solar micronova. That's EMP level grid down plus possible high radiation for a few days. At our age with our location we can't grow food for the long term. I think it is a low probability event but the science is compelling.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
I am keeping an eye on the magnetic pole shift ....

Interesting you mention that because although there are signs and it would/might have major consequences if it occurred over a short time span, I believe most people are not even slightly aware of the possibilities.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
I am keeping an eye on the magnetic pole shift ....

Interesting you mention that because although there are signs and it would/might have major consequences if it occurred over a short time span, I believe most people are not even slightly aware of the possibilities.

Correct me if I’m wrong but while a magnetic pole shit seems scientifically inevitable, it’s it on the same timetable effectively as a Yellowstone eruption?

Not meant to be an insult but worrying about an event with a +\- of thousands to millions of years from now seems misplaced.

And as Sigfreund mentioned, “short time span” is relative with this event as it would take 1-10 thousand years to reverse magnetic poles.

quote:

Originally posted by OttoSig:
Correct me if I’m wrong but while a magnetic pole shit seems scientifically inevitable, it’s it on the same timetable effectively as a Yellowstone eruption?

The pole location has been moving faster over the last number of decades, and the field has weakened substantially. The timing of the shift is not known for certain, but there is a lot of science supporting the hypothesis that we are now in the actively flipping stage, and it will flip in the next 10 - 25 years. Science does support that when it flips it happens fast. It isn't a long drawn out wandering.

"Science" is, of course, based on interpreting various kinds of evidence of ancient events and seeing how it fits with modern reliable observations. There are a lot of published papers supporting the rapidly changing location and weakening field.

We are experiencing much stronger northern lights, which are being seen even to the equator, with very much weaker solar events. The Carrington Event happened with a quite strong solar storm of a magnitude expected every 100 - 200 years. That was 157 years ago. A similar solar event today with the weakened magnetic field is akin to many emp events. The grid will be completely destroyed.

So even if the flip doesn't happen for hundreds more years, the weakening field is a present day threat.

Some of the hypotheses, seemingly supported by lots of science, include the galactic magnetic field. The results of those are much worse. But I don't want to be here for that.

Living in SW Florida hurricanes are the number 1 concern. I have been through 7 hurricanes in my life, and I have learned from each one. Unfortunately, after the last few it wasn't just the storm and its aftermath that caused concern, looters going through the areas were real and close by. When you have 2 or more vehicles following each other slowly drive down your storm ridden street at 1-2 am with headlights out its no fun, especcialy when you hear gunshots a minute later just down the road. Im not worried about zombies its weather and people that you have to prepare for.

I spent most of my life living through blizzards shutting roads and businesses down for a few days at a time, once was a 2 week driving ban so I'm used to always having food, water, and gas for the generator stocked. My biggest concern now will be hurricanes so I still have food, water, and gas stocked. Civil unrest or looters? maybe, but my neighbors have enough guns to at least put up a good fight.

For me, it's the widespread failure of our electrical grid. Either by EMP, hacking or terrorist action.

Every couple decades we get a major ice storm that takes down power to large areas of the NW Arkansas region for days/weeks. Last one in 2009 had most of the metroplex out of power for 2-5 days, and 2-3 weeks for outlying areas.

That's my primary realistic prep scenario. Backup heat and power sources. Water. Food that can be prepared on a camp stove, and fuel. Etc.

Tornados are common, but rarely cause a widespread problem and resources are quickly pushed out to the area.

There's also a major but mostly inactive fault line that runs through Eastern Arkansas, with the potential for a major earthquake (as has happened before in the distant past), with projections that such an event could disrupt life for weeks even on the other side of the state. Still a reasonable scenario, but less likely.

Here the most likely threat is wildfire. We had one 3 months ago that got to about a mile from my house. After fire, an extended power outage is probably the most likely, followed by earthquake. We get quite a few earthquakes, but most are too small to be felt. There have been 9 "major" ones (6.0+) in the last hundred years, the most recent in 2020.

The one that scares me the most is an EMP. It's among the least likely probably, although I rank it higher now than I would have a few years ago. The others I can handle with some spare food and water, a camp stove, some propane and an extra blanket or two.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
The timing of the shift is not known for certain, but there is a lot of science supporting the hypothesis that we are now in the actively flipping stage ....

Thanks for that discussion. I was aware of some of the “signs” (if we can call them that), but not all. I was thinking it would be a longer process, but it’s possible that the process is already going on. For example there is the southern magnetic anomaly that is, well …, an anomaly without good explanations as I understand it. If the Earth’s magnetic field dropped to nothing over the space of a couple of years and lasted for decades (or longer), that would be a bad time for life forms that do better without cosmic radiation.

As for something like the Yellowstone volcano, countless people have been surprised to their woe by sudden events.

On the other hand, though, how would we/could we “prepare” for either? Some people might have a century’s worth of vital supplies in their repurposed missile silo, but not many of us.

Earthquakes.