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Panic at the Gunstore--The How, When, and Why of Gun Panics Login/Join 
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quote:
Originally posted by Sig209:
But it is very interesting to consider micro and macro economic principles and apply them to our hobby.

209

-----------------------------


Thanks guys, I will add to the .22lr section and correct the typos in my local copy in case anyone approaches me for publication. Giving it away on the web for free probably hurts a bit, but I'd rather it be available for the benefit of sigforum's membership than try get a couple benjamins out of it Wink
 
Posts: 17629 | Registered: August 12, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Thanks very much LLD for such a great and detailed write-up!

The 22lr explanation makes so much sense too! It is economically driven.

This forum and other gun forums are a potential power house for gun rights.

I'm an NRA member and I think I'm going to contribute to the National Association for Gun Rights too.

We need to fight to keep our freedom!

Thanks again!
 
Posts: 1396 | Location: King of Prussia PA | Registered: September 19, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
'Murica
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Excellent article. Thank you!


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Posts: 3202 | Location: Canfield, Ohio | Registered: October 31, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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How about some of you avoiding the panics that come up, by planning ahead and buying when things are calm.

Right now, ARs are everywhere and cheaper than ever. Ditto for magazines for ARs, AKs and you favorite pistols that take more than 10 rounds.

If you need extra mags or always wanted another AR or AK or Glock...you better buy it soon.

Right now, they are plentiful and prices are decent. Ditto for ammo prices and other than 22LR and 22mag, it is not hard to find the popular caliber ammo in bulk and at a somewhat sane price.

Before we get another school/mass shooting, before Obama signs some of his inevitable crazy executive orders, before Hillary wins....you need to but whatever you want NOW.

Don't come here in the 2nd week of November 2016, whining about how you cannot find Glock mags, 9mm practice ammo or that every dinky AR is 2 grand.

You have time and you KNOW what is probably coming. Don't be THAT GUY on this board whining about how the shelves are bare!

Buy it soon...very soon and avoid the panics.
 
Posts: 3045 | Location: Houston, TX, USA | Registered: May 06, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Great job LDD!!!


https://www.topgunsupply.com

SIG SAUER Dealer and Parts Distributor
 
Posts: 10296 | Location: Ohio | Registered: April 11, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of kimberkid
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quote:
Originally posted by brickboy240:
How about some of you avoiding the panics that come up, by planning ahead and buying when things are calm.

(snip)

brickboy240 ... I think you're preaching to the choir here Smile


If you really want something you'll find a way ...
... if you don't you'll find an excuse.

I'm really not a "kid" anymore ... but I haven't grown up yet either Wink
 
Posts: 5036 | Registered: January 11, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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LDD: Thanks for the excellent write up, much appreciated!


"Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die." Joe Louis
 
Posts: 560 | Location: Idaho | Registered: January 17, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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My reaction to this - well - is more action and less contemplating.

Since reading this great perspective from LDD I have done the following in this order...

1> I took an inventory of what I have and what I "Want" in the event the next situation is in the short term.
2> I made my "Need", "Want to Have as Funds Allow", and "Would be Nice to Have" for selling/trading to back fill my "Needs" and "Wants" as replenishment is required.
3> I started selling those items that have sat in the vault since purchase that I purchased on a whim or because it was "on sale" to help fund my "Want" list.
4> I have purchased about 1/2 (4 of 8) items on my "want" list as well as a couple of items on the"Would be Nice to Have" (AR Lowers, extra P-Mags that will remain unopened, and several complete lowers that I have registered one as a pending SBR) because right now the market is saturated with the AR items that LDD mentioned and prices are as low right now.....

I am not there by any means but this article made me realize that I should not walk by 22LR ammo when it is priced 5, 6, or in some cases 7 cents a round just because I have enough in the vault to last me based upon how much I shoot for 6 months. Reloading supplies also - I am working towards purchasing the needed components to allow me to reload what I shoot for at least a year.

This article allowed me to narrow my focus by creating an actual WRITTEN LIST, not an ever-changing "today's impulse buy" knee jerk reaction to an itch......I still have my priorities in place, this just insures that when, not if, the next situation occurs I will have a complete understanding of where I stand.

LDD - Thanks - today was the 3rd time I read this article and every read allows me to gain more clarity as to the direction I need to follow.....Mark
 
Posts: 2420 | Location: MS | Registered: December 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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My word, are you for real? Can normal people actually write this well? That must be it. You are not one of us...you are one of them. Thank you for enlightening me.


Risk the consequences of honesty...
 
Posts: 4382 | Location: DFW, TX | Registered: December 02, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Loves His Wife
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Originally posted by Cobra21:
My word, are you for real? Can normal people actually write this well? <snip>.


LDD is not normal. He is exceptional, as is this article/post/thread.



I am not BIPOLAR. I don't even like bears.


 
Posts: 12737 | Location: Western WI | Registered: January 05, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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First off, let me agree with others about the quality and thoughtfulness of this article. Extremely well put. I do have a question, about the timing of a panic. Kimberkid brought it up earlier. The standard legislative process takes time, so we have some time to act before the panic reaches its pinnacle. With an Executive Order, we don't get that lead time. At what point, after POTUS threatens Executive Orders, would you expect the "panic" to begin? Obviously the best solution is, to borrow from the Boy Scouts, "Be prepared", but I am curious about your thoughts on how the timing of panics can be altered by Executive Orders.
 
Posts: 71 | Location: NoVA | Registered: December 12, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by md-dave:
(snip)
Obviously the best solution is, to borrow from the Boy Scouts, "Be prepared", but I am curious about your thoughts on how the timing of panics can be altered by Executive Orders.


^^^^^ This ... and with an EO the only lead time is if there is a grandfather clause or a delayed effective date such as with Bush 1 Import Ban, Clintons Domestic Ban and later barrel ban in '97 ... only then is there time for a panic to swell.

That being said, I think for the present time, the general public is tired of being panic'd because a year or so after Sandy Hook and with all the shootings since, nothing happened; they may feel like they are well armed enough or that they didn't need to rush out and buy a gun ... and some of those have even figured out that they got burned because they bought into the hype and then tried to sell their arms in a flooded market ... of course, some were just out to make a profit.

IMHO, the time to buy is now, no matter if it be arms, ammo or accessories ... do it now.


If you really want something you'll find a way ...
... if you don't you'll find an excuse.

I'm really not a "kid" anymore ... but I haven't grown up yet either Wink
 
Posts: 5036 | Registered: January 11, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by md-dave:
Obviously the best solution is, to borrow from the Boy Scouts, "Be prepared", but I am curious about your thoughts on how the timing of panics can be altered by Executive Orders.


You're right, legislation is relatively slow-moving.

EOs by their very nature are faster and trickier. We are generally protected by the fact that EOs are smaller in scope. For instance the Bush 41 foreign import ban of '89 targeted only imported "Assault Weapons" but couldn't touch domestic guns with the same features. But if there is a way for EOs to have a large effect and no future effective date, there is little gun owners can do to prepare ahead of time other than simply anticipating the EO itself.

I can give an example via NFA. MG/SBR/SBS/Suppressor/DD manufacture and transfers all require the purchase of a $200 tax stamp (AOW is $5 to transfer, but still $200 to manufacture). The rumor mill is always going about how the government will somehow raise the $200 tax to the economic equivalent of that same amount of money today. So figuring for inflation, $200 in 1934 is about $3550+ today. I'm sure some in the government would like to do that, the problem for them is that the $200 figure is part of the US tax code. If you could arbitrarily change the US tax code, you'd likely be doing much more important things with that power than adjusting an obscure and tiny source of revenue.

So Obama cannot just arbitrarily raise the tax amount for NFA items, inane babbling from gunstore counter-jockeys aside. What Obama can do is require that each NFA Form 1 (SBS/SBR/AOW/Suppressor manufacture) and Form 4 (MG/SBS/SBR/AOW/Suppressor transfer) be reviewed independently, top to bottom, by four separate and qualified NFA examiners before being approved. This would slow the NFA approval process to a crawl and probably discourage a lot of folks from applying for NFA ownership. A move like this would undoubtedly be justified with language promoting security and accuracy, but the motivation for such redundancy would be clear to anyone who is actually part of the process.

We wouldn't know about this till it happened, so there's no way to prepare.

EOs can't change laws, but they can change how agencies interpret laws and seek compliance with them. That's one of the reasons they're so hard to predict because, when the motivation for their use is political rather than pragmatic, they're by their very nature indirect and underhanded.
 
Posts: 17629 | Registered: August 12, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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LDD,
One of the TRUEST assessments I have ever read of this topic.
Best statement was, "like trying to catch a fart with a fishing net".

Your mind is a dangerous place, but I like to go visit there.


__________________________________________________
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Posts: 943 | Location: Idaho | Registered: July 07, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I recently picked up a quantity of lowers in .223/5/56 and .308.

Panic buying?

Like I saw on someones post "Buy it cheap and stack it deep".
 
Posts: 6125 | Registered: April 02, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Dances with Wiener Dogs
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This is particularly the case for liberal politicians who believe that the police, and politicians who control those police, should be the only ones in possession of firearms (i.e. The Master gets mad when you attack the Master’s house with the “Master’s tools”).


I think some of this is in play after San Bernadino. Some members of the Master's house (gov't employees) were killed. Had these two shot up another military recruiting station, I'd bet Zippy never would have mentioned it.

But I've not seen any 'panic' over this one. Not yet anyway.


_______________________
“The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.” Ayn Rand

“If we relinquish our rights because of fear, what is it exactly, then, we are fighting for?” Sen. Rand Paul
 
Posts: 7603 | Registered: July 21, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Good paper, I enjoyed reading it. Probably a bit much for the average gun rag reader though. By this time next week, teachers all over the country will be reading your paper, only with a different author's name on it.

Just a thought: I wonder how a rewrite of the paper, written from the liberal perspective, would be received. Just imagine the mental turmoil you could create.
 
Posts: 426 | Location: Georgia | Registered: March 24, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Noticed this on Atlantic Firearm's site.

"Please Note : Due to increased order volume due to the threat of New Gun Control we have seen a major increase in orders. Shipping times may be longer than normal."

It looks like Thursday's Town Hall on gun control, or gun safety as they like to portray it, could dictate whether or not a true 'panic' occurs, or if this is just another mini-panic.
 
Posts: 71 | Location: NoVA | Registered: December 12, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I went to the Gun Shop, shooting range on Saturday. The shooting range was packed, line waiting for empty lanes. They had the Beretta M9A3 in stock, the owner sold it to me 100.00 less then what he had it listed for and gave me 3% off for paying in cash. He told me most panic buyers were only buying guns in the 300-500 range. The shelf with the M&P's and Glocks were empty, still plenty of 1911, Sigs, HK's, and Beretta's in handguns. Still had BCM, LMT, and Colt AR's in stock, sold all of the S&W AR's. It would be nice if the President would work with the other two branches. Remove suppressors from the NFA and close the loop hole for gun show sales. Both sides get something.
 
Posts: 199 | Registered: April 06, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Great write up. Suffering under the oppression that is New York I would urge all free staters to read the convoluted vague confusing contradictory New York safe act - it has been called a "model for legislation at the national level"!
As far as .22 is concerned we are just barely recovering here from the panic and seeing limited stock of .22 on the store shelves more consistently ( can't order on line and ship to New York any more thanks to the safe act) and I am hoping that the most recent "panic" doesn't change this.
I actually based on increased availability started shooting more .22 again.
Hope in the next year to bug out of New York to a free state and see better supply and options after I do.
 
Posts: 2456 | Location: Finally free in AZ! | Registered: February 14, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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