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Panic at the Gunstore--The How, When, and Why of Gun Panics Login/Join 
Be Well and Keep Your Rifle Clean
Picture of mrmn50
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First, this should be copy written. What a great essay.
I am printing it so that I can read it a few times.

Thanks, LDD, and be well.




"..AGAINST ALL ENEMIES, FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC,...SO HELP ME GOD."


 
Posts: 20388 | Location: Czechtown,Minnesota | Registered: October 17, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Thanks for writing this LDD. I will be re-reading it multiple times.
 
Posts: 4603 | Location: Colorado | Registered: January 26, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
stupid beyond
all belief
Picture of Deqlyn
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LDD. Great article. Especially liked your pyramind of demand.


One thing you might consider adding, which is not my original thought, is the introduction of higher cap .22lr magazines hurting the 22 market.
22lr production hasnt increased much over the years yet new AR type rifles came into the market with 25- 30 round magazines. You eventual get tired of loading those old ruger 1022 drums, or loading 10 rounds at a time for a .22 pistol. But now the amount of shots per mag has gone up 2.5x even if you consider that a person only shot preloaded magazines.

Ruger mark 2, four 10 rnd mags pre loaded =40 rounds shot

Sig 522, four 25 rnd mags pre loaded = 100 shot in nearly the same time.

I suspect new shooters who gravitate to .22 also will blow thru rounds faster with said ARs as precise aim isnt also priority.

Anyway great article appreciate the time you put into it.



What man is a man that does not make the world better. -Balian of Ibelin

Only boring people get bored. - Ruth Burke
 
Posts: 6793 | Location: Kansas | Registered: September 13, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
2) The machines that make .22LR cannot make any other cartridge.If you don’t make a lot of money per round, and you can’t use that machine to make rounds that are more profitable, that really puts the damper on expansion plans for .22LR production. I haven’t been able to confirm that the machines that make .22LR are more expensive to set up than centerfire ammunition machines, but I suspect this to be the case due to the specialized nature of .22LR manufacturing.



At the beginning of the .22LR shortage someone researched the machines used for their manufacture. LDD is right on, these machines are very specialized, only one or perhaps two builders worldwide, definitely made to order, very long delivery, and of course very expensive. In order to accommodate another machine probably building expansion would be needed.
This could be a bet-the-company decision to expand production when the market obviously has a froth of hoarders and speculators involved.
The same applies to primers, complicated by the fact that most primer manufacturers are primarily concerned with filling their own ammunition loading needs.

I am certain that the same applies to the aluminum foundry and forge production of AR lowers. Most foundry and melting facilities are very capital intensive with highly specialized long delivery equipment needs. I don't know anyone in the lower business, but I would be surprised if lowers comprise more than a small part or their output making it unlikely that they would consider expansion.
 
Posts: 3610 | Location: Citrus County Florida | Registered: October 13, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of hlb14
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LDD, thank you for taking the time to write and post, that was a very good read.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: hlb14,
 
Posts: 701 | Location: TN | Registered: December 26, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ethics, antics,
and ballistics
Picture of Dtech
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quote:
Originally posted by Deqlyn:
LDD. Great article. Especially liked your pyramind of demand.


One thing you might consider adding, which is not my original thought, is the introduction of higher cap .22lr magazines hurting the 22 market.
22lr production hasnt increased much over the years yet new AR type rifles came into the market with 25- 30 round magazines. You eventual get tired of loading those old ruger 1022 drums, or loading 10 rounds at a time for a .22 pistol. But now the amount of shots per mag has gone up 2.5x even if you consider that a person only shot preloaded magazines.

Ruger mark 2, four 10 rnd mags pre loaded =40 rounds shot

Sig 522, four 25 rnd mags pre loaded = 100 shot in nearly the same time.

I suspect new shooters who gravitate to .22 also will blow thru rounds faster with said ARs as precise aim isnt also priority.

Anyway great article appreciate the time you put into it.


Agree with this 100%!

Would like to add that based on these observations and facts, that there is in fact a permanent increase in the demand of .22LR that the domestic manufacturers are not yet addressing. As more .22LR is imported it helps ease the demand across the board but the other problem with .22 demand is that it is a bit skewed by "brand preference". For instance, while CCI makes some great .22 ammo the demand for it has been even more exaggerated by manufacturers suggestions and people's perception that only CCI will run the best in every .22. Yes, it's good, yes it can be reliable, but there are plenty of other .22 manufacturers that make great .22 ammo too (IMHO better than CCI in some cases for that matter). On the other end of the spectrum you have Remington which tends to be the red-headed step child of the .22 industry and a lot of times bought as a "last resort" because it is available.

There are so many semi automatic .22 rifles and pistols owned and on the market right now that even with the continued scarcity of .22 many people still measure their consumption per range visit in bricks and not boxes. So, if consumption has not been curtailed by those that shoot .22 when they can find it, AND you have new, "tacticool" / training guns with large capacity magazines, AND you have more shooters / new shooters shooting them, then production has to go up at some point to handle the additional demand or we are going to be in the same boat with .22 ammo for the foreseeable future (read YEARS).

One last observation is that while not just for .22 ammo but centerfire as well, for some people it is infinitely more convenient to order online and have it delivered than to go to the store to buy it due to the distances they may have to travel to get to a store that sells it and has it in stock. So anything and everything that appears online, even at today's prices gets bought up pretty quickly except the really ridiculously priced offerings.


-Dtech
__________________________
"Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value." - Albert Einstein

"Greatness is maximizing your potential for the glory of God and the good of others." - Tony Evans

"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition" ― Rudyard Kipling
 
Posts: 3361 | Location: South Florida | Registered: April 03, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Interesting read. Good writing. Thank you.


Less is more.
 
Posts: 3890 | Location: Legoland | Registered: March 04, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
My hypocrisy goes only so far
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Good read. I cut & pasted it to e-mail to friends.
With a link to the page.




U.S.M.C.
VFW-8045
III

"He's a Mean Motor Scooter & a Bad Go Getter !"



 
Posts: 5269 | Location: Central,Ohio | Registered: December 28, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
Picture of RHINOWSO
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Nice write up - hopefully some can finally understand the 22LR situation isn't a conspiracy... Wink




read what you want
watch what you want
play what you want
think what you want
say what you want
 
Posts: 34366 | Location: Around | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Thanks for that insight- well written.

some things that have added to the lack of availability (demand) of items quite astonishingly IMO are:

- OEF / OIF : thousands upon thousands of military vets who buy an incredible amount of gear just like they had when they were in. I was in the Army in the 90s and I think a much smaller percentage of vets back then were inclined to buy military-styled firearms. Same with prior generations IME. Also- the conflicts have definitely made the firearms market clamor for military style gear, weapons etc.

- video games. Many of the super popular video games mention firearms by name and nomenclature quite accurately. I have no doubt that creates additional demand among the 20s-30s demographic.

- Bulk buying over the internet. Again back in the 90s / early 2000s most people just didn't order cases upon cases of ammo via the internet like we do now. We think nothing of having several thousand rounds of ammo stockpiled. That is a 'recent' demand phenomenon that has an effect.

But it is very interesting to consider micro and macro economic principles and apply them to our hobby.

209

-----------------------------


Proverbs 27:17 - As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.
 
Posts: 5405 | Location: Eastern NC | Registered: September 20, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Sigforum K9 handler
Picture of jljones
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Very nice write up


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"Make it a shooting, and not a gunfight" LSP552 02/19/2011

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Posts: 29464 | Location: Logical | Registered: September 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of kimberkid
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This reminds me of people I know that aren't anti-gun but not really pro-gun either ... They're the ones that keep saying "Obama's not after legal gun owners ... You're just paranoid"

Then when things started drying up OMG!

I am a little surprised that now, after the Oregon shooting, and Obama has said we need to follow the lead of England, Australia, Japan & Canada ... I'm surprised people aren't freaking out more, even though he has said he's working on new Executive Orders for gun control.

quote:
Originally posted by Andyb:


If you really want something you'll find a way ...
... if you don't you'll find an excuse.

I'm really not a "kid" anymore ... but I haven't grown up yet either Wink
 
Posts: 3974 | Registered: January 11, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Part of Zippy's oath of office was a pledge to Support and Defend the Constitution. That oath doesn't allow those making this pledge to pick and choose what parts of the Constitution he can support, it's all or nothing. Frankly I think the time has come for the House and the Senate to Man Up and just impeach the SOB. BTW, failing to adhere to the Oath of Office is technically Perjury, a crime in every single jurisdiction within the United States including all of it's territories and states.


I've stopped counting.
 
Posts: 3740 | Location: Michigan | Registered: November 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Rumors of my death
are greatly exaggerated
Picture of coloradohunter44
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quote:
Originally posted by Scooter123:
Part of Zippy's oath of office was a pledge to Support and Defend the Constitution. That oath doesn't allow those making this pledge to pick and choose what parts of the Constitution he can support, it's all or nothing. Frankly I think the time has come for the House and the Senate to Man Up and just impeach the SOB. BTW, failing to adhere to the Oath of Office is technically Perjury, a crime in every single jurisdiction within the United States including all of it's territories and states.
None of the worthless bastages have the balls to take the action necessary to boot his ass down the street. He is guilty of treason for sure.



"Someday I hope to be half the man my bird-dog thinks I am."

If it's mechanical it's either new, in the process of breaking, or completely broken.
 
Posts: 8347 | Location: Front Range, Colorado  | Registered: July 23, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ignored facts
still exist
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Very well written.

I might add that here in the coastal range, .22LR equals food. If I have .22LR, I can feed my family forever, until I run out of .22LR.

This may be another reason for the run on .22LR -- survivalists like it for the harvest of food.


.
 
Posts: 6014 | Location: Mom's Basement | Registered: February 28, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Internet Guru
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I'm of the opinion that Zippy has panicked gun owners so often that the market is likely saturated. I don't believe the idiot can scare too many more folks into purchasing weapons or ammunition.
 
Posts: 533 | Registered: April 06, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Don't Panic
Picture of joel9507
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Couple typos crept in - not really worth mentioning as we all know the history - but since the essay is so good and I agree with folks it is worth publishing, thought I'd note the nits:

Obama's election was in '08 not '07, and his inauguration was '09.
quote:
A second type of inciting incident, while less common, is somewhat more predictable: political uncertainty. If an anti-gun politician, or group of politicians is elected, this can trigger a panic. Obama’s victory in ’07 led the Panic of ’08, but in reality, the panic started in late ’07, long before Obama’s official swearing in on January 20th of the following year.

quote:
Shortly after Obama’s initial election in ’07,
 
Posts: 11037 | Location: North Carolina | Registered: October 15, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Funkey
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Thanks for the write up. I'm thinking you are correct with you analysis.

It's another cup of tea but. It's sad that we are forced into panic mode. The Constitution gives us the right to own guns with no stipulations.
 
Posts: 41 | Location: Southern Illinois | Registered: February 05, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by entropy:
Hey!!!

Lets get started on the panic now!!!!

Good grief.

There will be a foreign born high casualty event long before a ban. Theres some good news for you right there....


Those of us who are AWAKE and AWARE of what is going ON warned about this in NY for the last 10 years. Maybe we sounded like Chicken Little?

Upstate NY used to be great for gun owners. We had DCM/CMP shoots, 3 gun matches and a lot of AR type companies.

You guys think the anti-gun movement does not understand guns and assault weapons they understand them FAR better than the average gun owner and they have made great efforts to study the GUN and firearms business. They are going to attack the BUSINESS and FINANCIAL models that support the industry.

The gun laws in NY attack the capacity to own and use the guns.

The next phase will be an attack on the NRA finances and an attack on gun companies.

If S&W wins Federal and military contracts for handguns it will tied into the federal orbit as a supplier.

I would argue now is the time to get MORE NRA members nationwide.

NOW is the time to get motivated to weaken the democrat and anti-gunner resolve. They will start winning and win's beget more wins.

Stop them NOW when they are small and they have only taken the states they already control.
 
Posts: 2210 | Registered: April 18, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by Scooter123:
Part of Zippy's oath of office was a pledge to Support and Defend the Constitution. That oath doesn't allow those making this pledge to pick and choose what parts of the Constitution he can support, it's all or nothing. Frankly I think the time has come for the House and the Senate to Man Up and just impeach the SOB. BTW, failing to adhere to the Oath of Office is technically Perjury, a crime in every single jurisdiction within the United States including all of it's territories and states.


You are living in fantasy land. The constitution is dead to most politicians. They don't know or respect it. They make of it what they want.
 
Posts: 2210 | Registered: April 18, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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