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Panic at the Gunstore--The How, When, and Why of Gun Panics Login/Join 
Go ahead punk, make my day
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Target Sports USA has Speer Gold Dot Hollow Point 135gr +P Short Barrel 50rds boxes, $19.99, if anyone it interested. I guess the 38SPL isn't in enough demand to rate a price bump or LE restriction enforcement (yet).
 
Posts: 41278 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Take the risk or
lose the chance
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Just to clarify:
BFGC has 124gr HST's for $19.99 as long as you're an LE and you must provide your credentials to purchase.

Except apparently you can register using their form and become a "qualified customer" allowing purchase of the product. No definition of what constitutes a "qualified customer". Roll Eyes



----------------------------------------
“The further a society drifts from truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.”
 
Posts: 1402 | Location: RR12 | Registered: February 17, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Plowing straight ahead come what may
Picture of Bisleyblackhawk
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Just a bump for LDD's excellent thread...current events and all.


********************************************************

"we've gotta roll with the punches, learn to play all of our hunches
Making the best of what ever comes our way
Forget that blind ambition and learn to trust your intuition
Plowing straight ahead come what may
And theres a cowboy in the jungle"
Jimmy Buffet
 
Posts: 9321 | Location: Southeast Tennessee...not far above my homestate Georgia | Registered: March 10, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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LDD and SIGForum Friends - If the mid-term elections result in the Democrats gaining the required number of seats to gain control of the House do you see any action being introduced that could cause the current situation related to our 2nd Admendment rights being infringed? Thanks. Mark
 
Posts: 2365 | Location: MS | Registered: December 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ignored facts
still exist
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quote:
Originally posted by sigarmsp226:
LDD and SIGForum Friends - If the mid-term elections result in the Democrats gaining the required number of seats to gain control of the House do you see any action being introduced that could cause the current situation related to our 2nd Admendment rights being infringed? Thanks. Mark


I'm not worried as long as The Donald is in the WH.

On the other hand, what is being done at the state level is obscene. I expect more state nonsense after the election. So, It all depends on which state you are in.


.
 
Posts: 7548 | Location: The Beaver State | Registered: February 28, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by sigarmsp226:
LDD and SIGForum Friends - If the mid-term elections result in the Democrats gaining the required number of seats to gain control of the House do you see any action being introduced that could cause the current situation related to our 2nd Admendment rights being infringed? Thanks. Mark

How would anything the House passes get through a Republican controlled Senate or be signed into law by a Republican President? I'd be more concerned about another artificial panic created by irrational fear.
 
Posts: 1330 | Location: WI | Registered: December 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
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Yeah the current threats are at the state level.
 
Posts: 41278 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get Off My Lawn
Picture of oddball
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^^^^^^^^^^

In the case of CA, once Gavin Newsom is elected, gun owners will face a whole new ballgame that even Moonbeam would not touch. And the state is already such a wasteland when it comes to firearms rights.



"I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965
 
Posts: 11645 | Location: Texas | Registered: May 13, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
E tan e epi tas
Picture of cslinger
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Must we gin up panic at every turn. I mean I get it if you are the seller of said wares and hey more power to ya but for the rest of us let me lay it out for you.

If you are a gun owner you need to treat it like the stock market. Buy low, sell high.

THERE IS ALWAYS GOING TO BE A THREAT OR A BAN OR A.....etc. stock up on what you need when it’s quiet. Vote and write and be active when you can.

Point is pick up an AR mag or 3 every paycheck. Or a box or three of ammo or a lower or..... or..... etc. if you do this you will quickly find that during the panics you will wonder what you will do with your 30,000 rounds of .22 or wonder how you will store your 20 AR/AK mags.

Don’t mortgage your house, just but a tiny bit of what you want everytime it’s available and you will rarely ever worry about a panic. Hell if you THINK you will want X gun in the future.....buy a few mags now.

NOW GET OFF YOUR ASS AND VOTE DAMMIT.


"Guns are tools. The only weapon ever created was man."
 
Posts: 3900 | Location: Nashville, TN | Registered: July 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
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quote:
Originally posted by cslinger:

Point is pick up an AR mag or 3 every paycheck. Or a box or three of ammo or a lower or..... or..... etc. if you do this you will quickly find that during the panics you will wonder what you will do with your 30,000 rounds of .22 or wonder how you will store your 20 200 AR/AK mags.

FIFY, but I agree completely. Wink
 
Posts: 41278 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Gun show this coming weekend here. I get the feeling people think that the radical socialist Polis is going to win.

The last few shows have been slow on ARs and the like. I'll be able to observe first hand what the public thinks of the election.




 
Posts: 11021 | Location: Northwest of the 3rd world shithole known as Denver | Registered: June 18, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
E tan e epi tas
Picture of cslinger
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Smile

I may not have 200 AR mags but I have a shit ton of .22. Smile

I factor in 8-10 mags minimum for every gun purchase and I ...... frankly.....have too many guns. Frown


"Guns are tools. The only weapon ever created was man."
 
Posts: 3900 | Location: Nashville, TN | Registered: July 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of bobtheelf
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quote:
Originally posted by oddball:
^^^^^^^^^^

In the case of CA, once Gavin Newsom is elected, gun owners will face a whole new ballgame that even Moonbeam would not touch. And the state is already such a wasteland when it comes to firearms rights.


My heart goes out to the poor people living in the once great Golden State, but if anything good might come of this, maybe they'll push a few bridges too far and a couple good cases will reach the SCOTUS, with decisions in our favor.
 
Posts: 2798 | Location: Nashville | Registered: July 23, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Administrator
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quote:
Originally posted by sigarmsp226:
LDD and SIGForum Friends - If the mid-term elections result in the Democrats gaining the required number of seats to gain control of the House do you see any action being introduced that could cause the current situation related to our 2nd Admendment rights being infringed? Thanks. Mark


I don't see "panic" level demand following midterms, even if the democrats win. I do think that retailers will see a slight increase in consumer purchases if Democrats should win a congressional majority, but demand will not outstrip supply like it does during true panics.

If there was going to be a big spike after, you'd already see the first signs of panic now, before ballots are counted.

The Trump Presidency creates the perception of a significant obstacle to new Federal-level gun control legislation. I have talked to FFLs in other state (already have the pulse of those here). The general consensus is "we like Trump, but while he's been in office, gun owners feel safe from bad legislation and don't spend as much." It's a logical, if simplistic conclusion.

Edited to say: state-level legislation is much more certain, but less likely to cause panics simply because even if demand in X state spikes because of X-state specific legislation, FFLs in X state can import stock from other states which aren't affected by the same state-specific ban. That's very different from what would happen in the case of a national ban, where there would be no "safe harbors" to procure more supply from (in the case of a national ban, it's each state for themselves).
 
Posts: 17498 | Registered: August 12, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Rereading this thread because Nevada just went full retard in the Midterms.

Bruce




"I cannot spare this man. He fights!"
-Abraham Lincoln

"At the core of liberalism is the spoiled child — miserable, as all spoiled children are, unsatisfied, demanding, ill-disciplined, despotic and useless. Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats."
-PJ O'Rourke
“It is just as difficult and dangerous to try to free a people that wants to remain servile as it is to try to enslave a people that wants to remain free."
-Niccolo Machiavelli

 
Posts: 3045 | Location: NV | Registered: October 06, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Plowing straight ahead come what may
Picture of Bisleyblackhawk
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At my shooting range's Christmas dinner last Sat. I got into a discussion about gun sales with several members, one being our club President, who is a dealer with a gun shop in Old Fort, TN (Silver's Firearms)...we talked about sales being down, competing with the other 36 FFL entities in the county in which we live (Bradley) and the flooded market of AR15s...he agreed when I said that it seems retailers such as PSA are doing special runs of "themed" lowers (Mad dog Mattis, the "shoot your eye out kid" and the "snek"(snake)...to garner more interest in a flooded lower market...another member standing with us mentioned reading an article from years ago predicting what we are somewhat seeing today...

When I got home I did a bing search and came up with this one from 4 years ago...I found it interesting in light of current prices and supply of AR15 rifles, uppers and parts...

http://www.majorpandemic.com/2...l-be-on-shelves.html

Saturday, November 15, 2014
Economics & Why $25 AR15 receivers and $300 AR15 Rifles will be on Shelves Soon.

Back just a few years in the ancient times of the year 2000 there were less than 29 or so manufacturers producing AR15 receivers and rifles. I wish I had the exact number, however according to my research it would appear that under thirty is the generally accepted number for that time period. Now fast forward to 2008 as a noted socialist event organizer from overseas assumed the presidency and a liberal heavy congress convened. We justifiably all feared "they" would be coming for our guns. Well its not like it didn't happen... they did try and still are.

The explosion of AR15 manufacturers began at that point and has not stopped even beyond the current market sales downturn of the firearms industry. As of 2013, there were an estimated 500 AR15 manufacturers in the US and that does not include import manufacturers. It seemed everyone and their brother was producing AR15 receivers and rifles either themselves or via OEM relationships. Most were just "Me Too" products with their logo on the side of some existing manufacturer. Even giants like Mossberg, Ruger and Smith & Wesson got in the game backed with competition crushing marketing programs. Shooting from 29 AR15 manufacturers to 500 is over seventeen times the number of AR15 manufacturers in 2013 as were estimated in the year 2000. Even with bloated AR15 sales that is a lot of slices of just one AR15 sales pie to slice up. If the panicked frenzy of AR15 buying had continued in 2013 and 2014 it would not be an issue, however it did not.

2013 was a little soft from a firearms sales perspective and 2014 firearms sales began with a deafening silence and a quiet panic from people who have never even considered having to do "marketing". Many new firearms manufacturers just ramping up production in 2013 and 2014 were shocked at the lack of demand for their Me-Too products and wondering where all this supposed demand for AR15s was. I have heard from more than one of those original 29 manufacturers that the firearms bubble has burst and they are facing some challenging financial times after such a boom up until 2013. Some of the most respected names in AR15s are now facing financial shortfalls they have never experienced. Many of these newer manufacturers are now terrified that sales out are not equaling bills coming in. This puts the squeeze on everyone.

Its easy not have have to worry about budgets and financial planning when your company has a continuous twelve month backorder. Having rode the ".com" bubble, I can tell you that fiscal responsible behavior from new business owners is not created in the best of times, it is created when you have to try really hard to make every penny count and you are maximizing efficiencies. To meet "perceived" demand, I saw first hand people with no machining or business experience jumping into million dollar manufacturing equipment and real estate purchase agreements and taking even bigger business loans. Even in the best of times this is risky behavior. I actually had several Congressman approach me willing to provide free land, building, and grants to me if I was willing to bring new firearms manufacturers to create jobs... looking back it was a low risk opportunity that I should have jumped into, however where would that company and those jobs be now. It really is a economics 101 supply glut issue. There are just too many AR15 manufacturers on the market to support a sales demand far less than what manufacturers need to produce and sell to survive and even right now I can buy a lower receiver for the price of two pizzas.

The reality was that liberals politicians were the best salesman the firearms market has and likely will ever have. That entire political fiasco drove "gun people" to buy way more than they ever had and drove even "non-gun" people to suddenly develop a "I had better buy some guns now or never" attitude. The sales spike of all firearms and ammunition was more than a rather small and incestuous cottage firearms industry had ever seen. Those who were already up and rolling with production made the kind of money during that bubble which allows them to retire stunningly rich all within a five year period. Even those manufacturers who had excess capacity from aerospace or machining businesses, were able to jump in and start churning out wildly custom premium priced AR15 parts and rejoice when they began raking in giant piles of cash simply for just making receivers and a handful of custom parts. The "me too" manufacturers jumped into the market as well. Some did well... some not so much.

Most companies made significant facility and equipment investments to start making or increase current AR15 capacity which required bank loans and more workspace. Top shelf $2500 AR15s rifles begin slipping to $2000 to move excess inventory which pushes the $2000 ARs to $1500, and so forth until you get to the $500 AR15s which end up being pushed to the $300 range. Excess capacity leads to a glut of individual AR15 parts on the shelves at prices unseen in well over 20 years. As an example, I have been picking up blemished $39.99 Anderson Manufacturing and Palmetto State Armory upper and lower receivers, $80 Nibo BCGS, and $100 barrels over the last month from various sources. Even now, patient DIY AR15 builders can build nicely appointed AR15s well under the $400 mark. $300 AR15s on the shelf and $25 blemished lower receiver are not that far off if the glut continues.

Stay tuned folks... if you think prices are low now, wait until late 2014 and 2015 and I would almost guarantee complete AR15s will be less than a cheap iPad and stripped lower receiver will less than the price of a large pizza.

UPDATE 2016 - As one fan noted below, some of my predictions came true. At one point I did purchase several Anderson AR15 lowers for $25 each and during Christmas 2015 we did see $300 AR15s. Now of course our best gun salesmen is back at it with 2nd Amendment limiting executive actions so we are starting to se prices rebound now. Stay tuned folks, its going to be a wild 2016 and 2017 for gun sales.


********************************************************

"we've gotta roll with the punches, learn to play all of our hunches
Making the best of what ever comes our way
Forget that blind ambition and learn to trust your intuition
Plowing straight ahead come what may
And theres a cowboy in the jungle"
Jimmy Buffet
 
Posts: 9321 | Location: Southeast Tennessee...not far above my homestate Georgia | Registered: March 10, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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