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It’s always BS until it happens to you... Login/Join 
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sns3guppy:.........

Every time I press that trigger, it's either going to go bang, or not.


In that case, it doesn't matter what gun is carried because they all have the same odds of functioning or not.
 
Posts: 117 | Registered: August 13, 2018Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sns3guppy:
No, I didn't sleep through it, but it's bullshit.

You should be glad to fly on my aircraft (though you never will); failure is always assumed and prepared for...which is the case on all professionally operated flights. There is never a time when we will look at a potential failure and suggest that the odds of it happening are low, so we won't worry about it. Either it will, or it won't. We'll prepare for both.

A statistics guru will tell me that the odds are x, with mean and median and range and a lot of other crap which means exactly squat at the time of failure.

If it's mechanical, it will fail. It's never a matter of if, but when.

If it's biological, it will fail. Biological failure rate is 100%. There is never a question of if: always when. We all die.

You may ave 50,000 trouble free rounds through that P365 or G19 and not a single one of them counts for squat when you're in a gunfight and the weapon fails. Not one of them. What are the odds? Who gives a damn at that place, and time?

Stand up. Wave a white flag, and ask if you can get a pass, because the odds say this shouldn't be happening. Explain that it worked just fine the other 50,000 times. It's not really fair to be stuck, on this one.

Why do we bother doing malfunction drills?

Because it will malfunction. Why do I carry that second magazine? It's not because I plan to die in a pile of hot brass fighting off the hells angels. It's extra ammunition, but it's about going for a fresh magazine rather than troubleshooting the problem. We all understand that. We understand it because it will happen.

A few days ago we rejected a takeoff, a high-speed reject. A big bang, a big ball of flame, and a red light. Hot brakes. It was loud enough that the tower felt it. And heard it. Pretty big boom. What were the odds? If you're a statistics professor, I have no idea, but where the rubber meets the runway, it was 50/50 on each engine. Either it would, or it wouldn't. One of them wouldn't. We were either going, or rejecting; it was 50/50. We rejected.

Every time I press that trigger, it's either going to go bang, or not.


Yes, but your terminology is incorrect.

As a detail oriented aviator, it seems like you are pretty particular with things

You are misusing the term odds / probability with potential outcomes. Potential outcomes are useful in determining probability, but they aren't in fact odds.

If it was 50/50, you are saying that half the time it happens, half the time it doesn't.

In which case you'd likely be dead from losing so many engines and crashing. Or you pistol would not fire half of the time.

You are just plain wrong, whether you can put the ego aside to admit it, IDK.

Have a nice day! Big Grin
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sns3guppy:
......
A statistics guru will tell me that the odds are x, with mean and median and range and a lot of other crap which means exactly squat at the time of failure.

If it's mechanical, it will fail. It's never a matter of if, but when.

If it's biological, it will fail. Biological failure rate is 100%. There is never a question of if: always when. We all die.

You may ave 50,000 trouble free rounds through that P365 or G19 and not a single one of them counts for squat when you're in a gunfight and the weapon fails. Not one of them. What are the odds? Who gives a damn at that place, and time?
......

Thoroughly agree. This is why God invented BUGs.

I've carried for over 50 years, as well as being an avid shooter and instructor. I take reasonable precautions to ensure that my guns, ammo and mags function "reliably". That's all I (we) can do. My Plan B is the BUG, either a S&W M60 or Seecamp .32. Plan C goes down to folding knife and kubotan. Plan D is my empty handed defensive tactics training. So what? I could still end up dead. Obviously, my strong preference is for the gun to go bang. However, at my age, the odds/chances/probabilities of C or D working are getting less each year.

Odds, probabilities, chances, supercalifragilisticexpialidocious, whatever. The words involved don't matter. Binary...the gun goes bang or it doesn't. What's your plan if it doesn't?


______________________
An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing. --Nicholas Murray Butler
 
Posts: 4670 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: June 29, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
quote:
Originally posted by sns3guppy:
No, I didn't sleep through it, but it's bullshit.

You should be glad to fly on my aircraft (though you never will); failure is always assumed and prepared for...which is the case on all professionally operated flights. There is never a time when we will look at a potential failure and suggest that the odds of it happening are low, so we won't worry about it. Either it will, or it won't. We'll prepare for both.

A statistics guru will tell me that the odds are x, with mean and median and range and a lot of other crap which means exactly squat at the time of failure.

If it's mechanical, it will fail. It's never a matter of if, but when.

If it's biological, it will fail. Biological failure rate is 100%. There is never a question of if: always when. We all die.

You may ave 50,000 trouble free rounds through that P365 or G19 and not a single one of them counts for squat when you're in a gunfight and the weapon fails. Not one of them. What are the odds? Who gives a damn at that place, and time?

Stand up. Wave a white flag, and ask if you can get a pass, because the odds say this shouldn't be happening. Explain that it worked just fine the other 50,000 times. It's not really fair to be stuck, on this one.

Why do we bother doing malfunction drills?

Because it will malfunction. Why do I carry that second magazine? It's not because I plan to die in a pile of hot brass fighting off the hells angels. It's extra ammunition, but it's about going for a fresh magazine rather than troubleshooting the problem. We all understand that. We understand it because it will happen.

A few days ago we rejected a takeoff, a high-speed reject. A big bang, a big ball of flame, and a red light. Hot brakes. It was loud enough that the tower felt it. And heard it. Pretty big boom. What were the odds? If you're a statistics professor, I have no idea, but where the rubber meets the runway, it was 50/50 on each engine. Either it would, or it wouldn't. One of them wouldn't. We were either going, or rejecting; it was 50/50. We rejected.

Every time I press that trigger, it's either going to go bang, or not.


Yes, but your terminology is incorrect.

As a detail oriented aviator, it seems like you are pretty particular with things

You are misusing the term odds / probability with potential outcomes. Potential outcomes are useful in determining probability, but they aren't in fact odds.

If it was 50/50, you are saying that half the time it happens, half the time it doesn't.

In which case you'd likely be dead from losing so many engines and crashing. Or you pistol would not fire half of the time.

You are just plain wrong, whether you can put the ego aside to admit it, IDK.

Have a nice day! Big Grin


The main point that I take from sns3guppy is that you don't skip planning for emergencies because they are likely not to happen, you plan for emergencies because they at any time CAN........


Remember, this is all supposed to be for fun...................
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: April 06, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
The guy behind the guy
Picture of esdunbar
posted Hide Post
Sorry to hear yours busted OP. It's a MIM firing pin. If anyone is comfortable carrying that when said pin is under lateral stress, that's cool. I however don't trust that combination at all.
 
Posts: 7548 | Registered: April 19, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by djpaintles:

The main point that I take from sns3guppy is that you don't skip planning for emergencies because they are likely not to happen, you plan for emergencies because they at any time CAN........


That's it, in a nutshell.

They will happen.
 
Posts: 6650 | Registered: September 13, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by esdunbar:
Sorry to hear yours busted OP. It's a MIM firing pin. If anyone is comfortable carrying that when said pin is under lateral stress, that's cool. I however don't trust that combination at all.


How about one of these:

https://www.brownells.com/hand...iker-prod123392.aspx
 
Posts: 8944 | Location: The Red part of Minnesota | Registered: October 06, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Quit staring at my wife's Butt
Picture of XLT
posted Hide Post
This guy is a hard core Glock fan and look what he carries. starts at 1650

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4B5FOCrc_A



I have a high round count 365 no issues july build date.
 
Posts: 5574 | Registered: February 09, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by jljones:
quote:
Originally posted by MNSIG:
or a proven G19.


LOL. You mean like this one?

https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...0601935/m/6820091354

When I read things to where people like to tout Glock's "Proven track record", I have to giggle. I giggle a bunch. Because they have either not been around for very long, they don't go to the range much, or they are just blind by way of loving Glocks. Glock's can, often do malfunction, and break. Glock has a shit reputation for anyone that has been paying attention and not make excuses. Guns that detonate in the hand, guns that won't function when you put a light on them, guns that won't function because of erratic extraction and ejection, and on and on. But, their reputation is no better or worse than the shit shows by other major players. They are all about the same if you actually pay attention, and not put one brand on high because Tommy Lee Jones said so in US Marshals.

As guppy said, they are machines, and every time you roll out with one, you roll the dice.

This stuff happens. It happens to everyone, including Glock.

I don't own a 365, and unless I have to buy one for a project, I probably won't buy one. But, this constant bashing, back up with (snicker) "Glock's Proven Record", is funny to me beyond words. When SOCOM dumps the G19 this year, the rate of depression that will sweep across the internet will be epic. Big Grin


Alright, Alright, Alright.
Jones has it right. Glock has become the cult of personality. I've carried and shot them since the '90s. They were not "perfection" then and are not now. They did have enough good features such as weather proofing to make them stand out.

I've a g-26 bought new in 2005 and has tens of thousands of rounds through it, as well as being a daily carry since then.

Yep, it broke. Broken locking block pin followed by a broken locking block followed by a cracked frame at the locking block pin locations.

Here is where my story differs from Jones. The gun kept running, sporadic ejection and a general pain in the ass, but it kept running when all that failed.

Glock fixed it all. I beat that gun and they could have told me tough cookies, but they were more than happy to replace everything.

Another thing with Glocks is aftermarket support. Most places are fast shipping with good quality parts, others pure crap. Buyer beware. Broken strikers on the 365?. Anyone remember the titanium strikers for Glocks shattering?

Glock is not perfection, but it ticks enough boxes that it is damn close.


___________________________________Sigforum - port in the fake news storm.____________Be kind to the Homeless. A lot of us are one bad decision away from there.
 
Posts: 1165 | Registered: July 20, 2018Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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