quote:

Originally posted by Dzozer:
There were 57K deaths from the flu last year

Link

In the US. Around 290,000-650,000 globally according to WHO estimates.

So, does the CDC ever over-react, or is this a legit escalation? (Where did I leave that mask?)

Coronavirus disruption to ‘everyday’ life in US ‘may be severe,’ CDC official says
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Tuesday warned that it expects the novel coronavirus to begin spreading in the U.S. at the community level, and that “disruption to everyday life may be severe.”

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the agency’s director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a press briefing on Tuesday that the time for Americans to begin preparing for a potential outbreak of the virus is now, although officials believe the immediate threat to the public remains low.

“As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder,” Messonnier said. “Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country. It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of when this will happen, and how many people in this country will have severe illness.”

Rest of the story...

quote:

Originally posted by kkina:
So, does the CDC ever over-react, or is this a legit escalation? (Where did I leave that mask?)

Coronavirus disruption to ‘everyday’ life in US ‘may be severe,’ CDC official says
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Tuesday warned that it expects the novel coronavirus to begin spreading in the U.S. at the community level, and that “disruption to everyday life may be severe.”

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the agency’s director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a press briefing on Tuesday that the time for Americans to begin preparing for a potential outbreak of the virus is now, although officials believe the immediate threat to the public remains low.

“As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder,” Messonnier said. “Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country. It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of when this will happen, and how many people in this country will have severe illness.”

Rest of the story...

Yes, and yes. The virus already meets the technical definition of a pandemic. Underestimating the effect is not something they want to do right now, and because of the (very apparent) ease of transmission, it's prudent to plow the road - witness the astonishment of the market lately. People - and the government - should be prepared for a significant percentage of the population getting this disease. This will - probably - impact healthcare availability significantly, probably mobility, almost certainly the supply chain, and likely normal operations for almost every daily activity. Just like the H1N1 2009 flu pandemic did (over 12,000 people died from this particular virus in the US). This was pretty apparent once the virus left China. What many - myself included - hope and believe is that the worst of this won't produce a horrific and unexpected fatality rate (though any is too much - but we don't get to choose). And to remember that "pandemic" doesn't mean "everybody dies," but that "a lot of people get sick." And they have, and will.

1xt report a a US service member with the virus. Stationed at Camp Carrol, near Daegu South Korea. He (?) is self quarantined in his off-base quarters.

quote:

There were 57K deaths from the flu last year

And the point is?
I keep seeing comments like that, and if the point is that other diseases kill more people than COVID-19 has (thus far) and therefore there’s no need to be concerned about it, why stop there? If we don’t need to take precautions to avoid being killed one way because there are other ways of dying with higher fatality rates, then we should stop worrying about anything because the fatality rate for being born has always been 100 per cent.

Driving drunk, wing suiting through narrow canyons, hiking across Afghanistan, cycling along dark country roads with no lights or reflective apparel, smoking four packs of unfiltered Camels a day, consuming all the sweet tea and bourbon we can hold, enjoying the pleasures of heroin, etc.: Why not do all those things; none of us is getting out of here alive anyway.

There’s a lesson about logical thinking in there somewhere, but I believe it would be futile to describe it further.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

Yes, and yes. The virus already meets the technical definition of a pandemic. Underestimating the effect is not something they want to do right now, and because of the (very apparent) ease of transmission, it's prudent to plow the road - witness the astonishment of the market lately. People - and the government - should be prepared for a significant percentage of the population getting this disease. This will - probably - impact healthcare availability significantly, probably mobility, almost certainly the supply chain, and likely normal operations for almost every daily activity. Just like the H1N1 2009 flu pandemic did (over 12,000 people died from this particular virus in the US). This was pretty apparent once the virus left China. What many - myself included - hope and believe is that the worst of this won't produce a horrific and unexpected fatality rate (though any is too much - but we don't get to choose). And to remember that "pandemic" doesn't mean "everybody dies," but that "a lot of people get sick." And they have, and will.

We probably have a few weeks, so what can we start doing now to prepare our bodies to have the best shot at fighting it off? Get more sleep? Cutting out certain foods and taking probiotics?

Should we take breaks from immunity supplements until it gets closer like elderberry and Airborne so their usefulness doesn't decrease?

^^^^ I plan on increasing my whiskey consumption immediately.

57k died from the flu last year ? And this is with a vaccine and some herd immunity

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:

quote:

There were 57K deaths from the flu last year

And the point is?
I keep seeing comments like that, and if the point is that other diseases kill more people than COVID-19 has (thus far) and therefore there’s no need to be concerned about it, why stop there? If we don’t need to take precautions to avoid being killed one way because there are other ways of dying with higher fatality rates, then we should stop worrying about anything because the fatality rate for being born has always been 100 per cent.

Driving drunk, wing suiting through narrow canyons, hiking across Afghanistan, cycling along dark country roads with no lights or reflective apparel, smoking four packs of unfiltered Camels a day, consuming all the sweet tea and bourbon we can hold, enjoying the pleasures of heroin, etc.: Why not do all those things; none of us is getting out of here alive anyway.

There’s a lesson about logical thinking in there somewhere, but I believe it would be futile to describe it further.

The logic is that you don’t see people freaking out about a disease (annual influenza) that is far more infective than Covid-19 and the annual Cumulative mortality numbers are higher over an equivalent time period. Such quotes don’t mean that one should not take precautions/be prepared.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
I plan on increasing my whiskey consumption immediately.

I'm going to hold off until shit gets bad. I'll work on the perishable beer stocks for now.

quote:

Originally posted by oldbill123:
57k died from the flu last year ? And this is with a vaccine and some herd immunity

The flu isn’t comprised of a single strain and often the WHO-selected innoculants don’t produce the desired effective antigenic response. Last year’s vaccine was statistically effective but if one’s immune system is weak (immunogenic deficiency), the desired T-cell response may not be sufficient. For this reason, those > 60 years of age often receive a different influenza vaccine than the remainder of the pop’n. Unfortunately influenza can mutate rapidly, adding to the viral population burden.

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

Yes, and yes. The virus already meets the technical definition of a pandemic. Underestimating the effect is not something they want to do right now, and because of the (very apparent) ease of transmission, it's prudent to plow the road - witness the astonishment of the market lately. People - and the government - should be prepared for a significant percentage of the population getting this disease. This will - probably - impact healthcare availability significantly, probably mobility, almost certainly the supply chain, and likely normal operations for almost every daily activity. Just like the H1N1 2009 flu pandemic did (over 12,000 people died from this particular virus in the US). This was pretty apparent once the virus left China. What many - myself included - hope and believe is that the worst of this won't produce a horrific and unexpected fatality rate (though any is too much - but we don't get to choose). And to remember that "pandemic" doesn't mean "everybody dies," but that "a lot of people get sick." And they have, and will.

We probably have a few weeks, so what can we start doing now to prepare our bodies to have the best shot at fighting it off? Get more sleep? Cutting out certain foods and taking probiotics?

Should we take breaks from immunity supplements until it gets closer like elderberry and Airborne so their usefulness doesn't decrease?

Getting more sleep is always a good goal (one of my particular goals). Most people will have no immunity to this virus, but most people (statistically) will have an immune system robust enough to fight it off if exposed. Supplements won't help (but likely won't hurt either); if you take them, wouldn't stop, if you don't, wouldn't start. I'm not changing anything about my daily routine right now. Best preparation is to stock up on meds you need so you don't have to wait in a pharmacy line with coughing, sneezing people. Wash your hands after you go out. Don't touch your face. And just like a hurricane, stock up on non-perishables so you don't have to wait in a line at the grocery with the same thing. And if there is a community outbreak, best to avoid crowds (and wear a mask if you can't), stay away from obviously ill people, and if you do get sick see your PCP. If a vaccine is developed, get it. If you're elderly or have other medical conditions, times squared. That's it. No other prep is necessary or effective in my opinion. Everything could change if we see a significantly altered course for the disease (for the worse), but hopefully it will react like many other respiratory viruses and taper off seasonally within a few months. And we probably won't know why. But we'll try to be ready for the next one.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
I plan on increasing my whiskey consumption immediately.

I'm going to hold off until shit gets bad. I'll work on the perishable beer stocks for now.

I'm with you Jesse, but I might consider a stock check to make sure a supply run isn't in order now, before the pandemic comes to my little town...

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
But the general thinking over here is that there are probably already numerous unrecognized infections across Europe, and Italy is just prominent because they started testing lots of people. Germany has now begun testing samples from people seeing their doctors over respiratory sickness via the national Influenza tracking program (i. e., from about 100 general practitioners across the country), and I expect some cases to show up with no clearly established chain of infection.

And there we have it. 47-year-old man with pre-existing condition in North Rhine-Westphalia in critical condition and on ventilation with symptoms of severe pneumonia tested positive along with his wife. Unlike in the separate case of a 25-year-old tourist just returned from Italy, no likely source of infection has been established so far. I'm reminded to stock up on a supply of my regular meds.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BansheeOne,

About all we really know is that it originated in China and their response was a country wide freak out

Yay for drive-through pharmacies, order-ahead groceries, and take-out food.

The CDC official pushing this new panic narrative is none other than Rod Rosenstein’s sister...HMMMMMMM

quote:

Earlier today Dr. Nancy Messonnier, an official in the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), held a conference call with media and pushed a panic narrative around the Coronvirus that ran counter to the Trump administration.

What makes the statements by Dr. Messonnier even more interesting is the fact she is the only sister of former DOJ Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

Link

Color me suspicious.

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:
Yay for drive-through pharmacies, order-ahead groceries, and take-out food.

I agree but would change that last bit to "home cooked meals".