quote:

Originally posted by sdy:

quote:

the fatality rate for asymptomatic cases is 0%. Is it?

I think the arithmetic is ok

Certainly the death rate for asymptomatic would be zero.


https://townhall.com/tipsheet/...the-country-n2569367

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected a fatality rate of 0.2%

quote:

Rural Coronavirus Hotspots

The German Towns on the Front Lines of COVID-19

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the country's state governors have decided that if a municipality becomes a coronavirus hotspot, authorities there must intervene. But local leaders have other plans.

20.05.2020, 20.12 Uhr

Greiz advertises itself as the "pearl of the Vogtland," a scenic region abutting the Czech border in eastern Germany. These days, however, it wishes it were less well known.

The outbreak in the district, located in the eastern German state of Thuringia, supposedly started with a festive family celebration on February 29. Two weeks later, the district's health authority registered its first COVID-19 patients. The first casualty came on March 22, an 82-year-old who died at home from pneumonia. Two days later, a post-mortem examination revealed that she had had the virus. It marked the deadly virus' arrival in this rural part of the country.

Now, 44 people have died in the Greiz region and 585 people have been confirmed as infected. In a special report, Germany's Interior Ministry found that no fewer than eight care homes in the district are "especially affected." Two hospitals and a manufacturer of rubber goods were also classified as hotspots. In May, the district had up to 88 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week -- at that point, the highest figure for that metric in the country.

As a result, Greiz has drawn the attention of political leaders. The region is one of several German hotspots, alongside Coesfeld in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Steinburg in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein, Rosenheim and Traunstein in Bavaria and Sonneberg in Thuringia. An "emergency mechanism" is supposed to be implemented in districts in which there are 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days -- a measure meant to once again limit public life. Germany's state governors agreed on this approach with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

But in practice, district administrators and, occasionally, state governors are resisting this approach. Not so much because of pressure from local businesspeople, but rather because they are skeptical about the numbers. Hotspot areas often have a single outbreak source. In Greiz, it is care homes; in Sonneberg, a health center; in Rosenheim, refugee housing; in Steinburg, shared apartments for workers at a slaughterhouse. The authorities have imposed quarantines and other limitations on these facilities.

Knowing that, how much sense does it make to close restaurants and hairdressers in these districts, especially given the growing protests against Germany's coronavirus lockdown measures? Residents can just drive a few kilometers, after all, and have their hair cut in a different town. At least, that's how people in Greiz, and how Thuringia Governor Bodo Ramelow, see it.

Different Approaches

Every district is now trying to find its own path out of hotspot status. In the city of Rosenheim, the residents of two homes for asylum seekers were told to remain inside. Only those who repeatedly tested negative or who had antibodies in their blood were given a colorful armband and allowed to leave. "The solution is being well accepted in the homes," says Rosenheim's municipal spokesperson and head of economic affairs, Thomas Bugl. He added, "public life has widely normalized."

Lately, the rate in Rosenheim has been fluctuating around the all-important limit of 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week. Without the infected residents of the refugee home, that number would be a third lower. "For those of us on the frontlines, the crucial question is whether or not we can more or less take a local hotspot out of commission to break the chain of infection," Bugl says. In his view, this has now been accomplished in Rosenheim.

A district's hotspot status can change quickly. Traunstein in Bavaria was described by the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's public health authority, in the same breath as Greiz. Now the district has far better numbers. According to Traunstein's district administrator, Siegfried Walch, quick local decision-making is crucial. "Waiting for instruction from Berlin," he says, "can take days."

Walch is convinced that his local authorities are taking decisive actions. "We can stop the events that lead to infections in a targeted manner." The district administrator argues that additional coronavirus figures should be taken into account, including the number of people who have recovered, the number of tests implemented and hospitals' occupancy rate. "If one region would have to go into lockdown while others are allowed to remain open, that would be fatal," says Walch. But he says his district authority has taken special measures.

Unlike the rest of Bavaria, senior citizen and care homes in Traunstein remained closed on Mother's Day. After outbreaks in two homes for asylum seekers, the district carried out a series of tests and housed infected and non-infected residents separately.

Compromise Solution?

Leaders in Traunstein have almost four months of experience with the virus. The first infections appeared in late January. In March, returning skiers drove up the number of new infections. The health department tripled its staff dedicated to contact tracing, and medical students and civil servants are investigating chains of infection. The citizens' hotline alone is now staffed by 20 people.

In the Zollernalbkreis district in the state of Baden-Württemberg, the situation is also seemingly under control. There were just under 50 new infections in the district recently. District administrator Günther-Martin Pauli says he is not planning any new closures. He argues that his district is high up in the statistical rankings because it has been affected for such a long time. "We are testing more than other districts, which is why we also have noticeably more results." He says there is no one particular source of infection, and that the supply situation in the local hospital isn't particularly dramatic. Pauli calls for "proportionate action."

[...]

quote:

Originally posted by PeteF:


I'm not so sure about asymptomatic death rate being zero. Nj and NY are heavily "cooking the books". Get hit by a bus while asymptomatic, corona death. 93 yo in Hospice care with emphasyma and multiple heary attacks, dies. Cause of death corona.
If there is any way that they can up the tally, they are.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

quote:

Originally posted by PeteF:


I'm not so sure about asymptomatic death rate being zero. Nj and NY are heavily "cooking the books". Get hit by a bus while asymptomatic, corona death.

Why are they testing people killed in bus wrecks? Who paying to test all these bus wreck deaths?

quote:

A Study on Infectivity of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Carriers
Ming Gao et al. Respir Med. 2020.

Abstract
Background: An ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread around the world. It is debatable whether asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carriers are contagious. We report here a case of the asymptomatic patient and present clinical characteristics of 455 contacts, which aims to study the infectivity of asymptomatic carriers.

Material and methods: 455 contacts who were exposed to the asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carrier became the subjects of our research. They were divided into three groups: 35 patients, 196 family members and 224 hospital staffs. We extracted their epidemiological information, clinical records, auxiliary examination results and therapeutic schedules.

Results: The median contact time for patients was four days and that for family members was five days. Cardiovascular disease accounted for 25% among original diseases of patients. Apart from hospital staffs, both patients and family members were isolated medically. During the quarantine, seven patients plus one family member appeared new respiratory symptoms, where fever was the most common one. The blood counts in most contacts were within a normal range. All CT images showed no sign of COVID-19 infection. No severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections was detected in 455 contacts by nucleic acid test.

Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

Keywords: Asymptomatic carrier; Contacts; Infectivity; SARS-CoV-2.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

---

quote:

My neck of the woods (Lake of the Ozarks, MO) made front page on most of the national media outlets. Numbers are still coming in but looks like about 300,000 people were here over the Holiday.

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
Anyone who owned a lake place around here had it packed with vehicles and people this weekend. Campgrounds are still closed but it didn't matter unless you owned a campground and losing you're income.

We had thirteen people up at our place this weekend. Every neighbor had a average six or more vehicles and gatherings as big or bigger than ours. The Governor is fooling himself if he thinks he's got control of this. It officially ended for a lot of people this weekend. Not a mask to be seen and no social distancing going on that I seen. Boats on the lake had capacity passengers.

Everybody is so over this already and this is Minnesota!