quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
deBlasio wants 7 Billion from the federal govt to make NY City "whole"
https://theconservativetreehou...bailout/#more-190105

At the very least I want some of whatever he's smoking.

No you don’t. He’s probably an expert in smoking white owls.

great. Fantastic. I know this thread is your pet project but here’s the thing.

For the point of this discussion....I don’t care.


Find me an institution worthy of respect that has a margin of error in their numbers built in for your cases of fraud and, provided their data and reasoning is sound, ill use their number for discussion


Until then I will stipulate there is fraud. There certainly is just plain old error.

For the purpose of discussion I am establishing a baseline using the numbers reported by Johns Hopkins. I get you don’t like their numbers. I get you don’t like anything about this that doesn’t fit a very narrow narrative.

There is a range in the heart disease numbers because what is classified as a death related to heart disease and reported as such can vary from state to state and even from hospital to hospital

At some point, given time, someone will compile numbers taking into account variations and, yes, even the fraud you want to insert into every conversation about this. I am, though, unaware of such an established study yet


Until then I’m going to go with the guys from Johns Hopkins. Yes they may have an agenda. So do you. So do I. But, and you seem like a nice, well educated guy, but in the instance I believe they are much more the subject matter experts than you. Or me. Or, well, almost everyone in this thread

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Kevbo:
Some of them most likely are

And there are likely deaths, especially early, not appropriately classified

The point is you have zero proof the Johns Hopkins numbers are inflated.

Yes we do. In New York they even admitted adding deaths that they simply assumed were covid. In Pennsylvania the governor just happened to be caught adding fake deaths to the rolls. Even Dr. Birx said that they were being extremely liberal in how they were counting deaths.

The numbers are unquestionably inflated.

quote:

Originally posted by Kevbo:
great. Fantastic. I know this thread is your pet project but here’s the thing.

For the point of this discussion....I don’t care.

.... I get you don’t like anything about this that doesn’t fit a very narrow narrative.

My pet project? Very narrow narrative? Saying false crap like that is completely unnecessary to get your point across. It's pretty clear you also have a very narrow narrative, and you don't care to hear any noise to the contrary or else you would've laid off the ad hominem attacks.

You trust the numbers coming out of these states, and that is where John's Hopkins is getting its numbers, is it not? They are collecting data provided to them. If the data is flawed, which I believe it is, I'm simply not going to trust it no matter who is putting out the final report.

You do trust it and I don't. We disagree. It's as simple as that.

My position in this thread from the very beginning has not been to outright dismiss this virus, as I do believe it needed to be talked about and considered seriously. No, it has simply been that these draconian lockdowns are completely unnecessary and a gross overreaction and vastly more harmful to our nation in the long run. I still believe that, and I believe it now more than ever.

OK, fine. Let's move on.

Though I don't think I've ever posted this here before, my congrats to Californians today for getting with the program. Even they have apparently had enough of this BS. Californians Defy Governor, Flock to the Beach

There were COVID deaths never reported and COVID deaths over reported. That may in the end fall to one side or the other, who knows, we will never know. The things I do know are:

- It's not the flu.
- Deaths are additional to flu and all other causes of death.
- It's not going away soon.
- Containment is past the point of having any use
- We don't want to overwhelm our hospitals or have Drs and nurses working without PPE
- No one knows true numbers either current or projected.
- No matter which way the end results end up media will blame PDJT
- There is no consensus among the medical community
- We are working with in complete data

In my mind the biggest question is how do we restart things and prevent the most deaths possible because deaths are inevitable at this point.

I have no answers, just questions and thirst for information. This is a complete shit storm and I hope we end up choosing the right balance.

This thread provides a lot of entertaining reading, much of which confirms my belief that any broad answers are beyond me, as they may be for our betters. Instead, I'm trying to focus on how I might run my life in the current circumstances. I'm definitely in the high risk demographic: 76 years old with limited heart function of long standing, but otherwise in good shape.

We live in Kitsap County, just across Puget Sound from Seattle, the epicenter of the epidemic in Washington. Population is about 250,000 and 1point3acres.com has recorded a total of 144 cases with 2 fatalities.

With that info, and with no memory of having had the flu in a long while (with flu shots every year), it seems to me I can act as normally as possible within the limits our governor has imposed with minimal risk. For me that means going where I want, when I want, without a mask, with minimal anxiety.

I know some of you here have imposed much more stringent conditions on yourselves, and that may be appropriate to your location and personal situation. So what are the rest of us doing?

You misunderstand me. I actually agree with you on many points. That’s why I stipulated there is fraud. That’s not what my argument is about. I agree. There’s been fraud.

My intent was not to insult you. I really was just making an observation. For the record, this thread is many people’s per thread. At times mine included. It’s not an insult.

The point I am trying to make is there has to be some basis to start a conversation.

That’s it

Are the Hopkins numbers likely skewed? Time will bear out most of your criticisms.


So how much do you want to say it is skewed?

5%? 10%. 20%. Let’s say 20%. Which is absurdly high. But let’s go with it. Then 44,000 people instead of 55,000 people have been killed which puts Covid 19 in the top 5 killers in the United States since it’s become really active...even that date is up for debate....still, even accounting for that much error/fraud it approaches the number of deaths from heart disease and cancer.


My point is, and has always been, that the truth of the matte5 is somewhere in hetween the extremes

You can be completely right about everything you’ve said and this is still is one leading killers in the United States over the previous 8 weeks



Alan, I’m not trying to insult you. You are in this thread a ton. I am happy to discuss things with you. In order to do that we have to have a baseline. If you don’t like he one I’ve chosen then propose a different one. I recognize where my language may have been inflammatory. Part of me probably was instigating. But I shouldn’t have been so I hope we’ll see past it.


Sorry Para, I really am trying to be pragmatic. I’ll happily move away for a while

Was having a chat with a friend tonight about how we open the economy. He hasn't been impacted financially and assumes anyone protesting is in it for a haircut. In addition, I’m being selfish because if I go back to work, and my co-worker catches COVID from me, he could die.

I said, “Well, it’s up to each of us to decide how much risk we’re comfortable with. If this theoretical co-worker has underlying Comorbidity...he needs to make a choice.”

He replied “How is he supposed to know?”

“It’s not complicated, is he elderly? Hypertensive? Obese?”

His response, “Oh, so we’re discriminating now?”

I said, “I’m not. The virus is.”


Ugh. It was depressing.

How's that vaccine coming?

Mayor suspends open carry in Jackson

https://youtu.be/awAGP72dmos



Jackson Mayor suspends open carry law amid covid-19 pandemic, receives backlash
By Justin Dixon April 26, 2020

https://youtu.be/uvHA83bUes0

Skip ahead to 5:30

And something new at 12:40, his AR has two scopes?!?

quote:

The problem is those Wuhan virus "confirmed death" numbers are false and greatly inflated.

Yeah. I think the numbers coming out of NYC are about as reliable as those that came out of China.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
The problem is those Wuhan virus "confirmed death" numbers are false and greatly inflated.

Well again, something is currently killing more people than usually die at this time of the year. Part of that may be from other illnesses because people (were) kept away from hospitals, but then there are likely less road and work accidents now, and you are still left with a considerable excess mortality.





https://www.ft.com/content/6bd...43-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

The problem with comparing Covid-19 deaths over a "7 week period" to flu deaths over a 52 week period is that the vast majority of flu deaths occur not over a 52 week period, but rather over the "flu season" which the CDC defines as December through April.

Additionally, the CDC counts Covid-19 deaths based on death involving an ICD diagnosis code of U07.1. Flu deaths have an ICD-10 code of J09-J11. And pneumonia deaths J12.0-J18.9. The problem with saying "this many people died from Covid-19 and this many people died from the flu, or this many people died from pneumonia" is that a single death can be counted as one, two, or all three of these. In other words, a person can have what the CDC calls co-morbid findings, or multiple causes of death based on multiple ICD diagnoses.

Another problem is that the CDC suggests that doctors apply a Covid-19 ICD code when Covid-19 is "presumed" but not necessarily confirmed. We all saw the charts, principally from New York, where flu and pneumonia reporting went to virtually zero overnight (during flu season) and Covid-19 diagnoses accelerated.

You can have a person who is hospitalized as a result of severe pneumonia arising from flu, and a doctor "presumes" Covid-19 and that person will likely get a diagnosis of Covid-19. Covid-19 may or may not exist. And even if it does, the underlying death may be caused not by Covid-19, but rather the pneumonia arising from flu. In some cases, that single death may receive an ICD-10 code for flu, pneumonia and Covid-19, thus counting as a death from all three. That statistic will show up as a death from flu, a death from pneumonia and a death from Covid-19.

There isn't even a consensus among the states as to how Covid-19 deaths are being counted. Some states count a death based on death from a respiratory illness and count it as Covid-19 if the person was probably in proximity to someone with Covid-19.

So, it's clear that the actual number of deaths from any of these diseases right now is unclear. Doctors are "presuming" Covid-19 cases when the cause of illness/death may be flu and/or pneumonia - testing isn't required to assign a Covid19 finding. Flu and pneumonia reporting fell off dramatically during the season when doctors began presuming the presence of Covid-19. And many of the deaths under each illness represents a single person who had two of more ICD-10 codes applied to them.

It will take years to figure all this out.

Over 3,000 Inmates in 4 State Prisons Test Positive for CCP Virus—Most Without Symptoms

https://www.theepochtimes.com/...682e3b6378-238318549

When the first cases of the new CCP virus surfaced in Ohio’s prisons, the director in charge felt like she was fighting a ghost.

“We weren’t always able to pinpoint where all the cases were coming from,” said Annette Chambers-Smith, director of the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction. As the virus spread, they began mass testing.

They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95 percent had no symptoms.

“It was very surprising,” said Chambers-Smith, who oversees the state’s 28 correctional facilities.

As mass CCP virus testing expands in prisons, large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms. In four state prison systems—Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia—96 percent of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the CCP virus were asymptomatic, according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters. That’s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms.


The numbers are the latest evidence to suggest that people who are asymptomatic—contagious but not physically sick—may be driving the spread of the virus, not only in state prisons that house 1.3 million inmates across the country, but also in communities across the globe. The figures also reinforce questions over whether testing of just people suspected of being infected is actually capturing the spread of the virus.

“It adds to the understanding that we have a severe undercount of cases in the U.S.,” said Dr. Leana Wen, adjunct associate professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University, said of the Reuters findings. “The case count is likely much, much higher than we currently know because of the lack of testing and surveillance.”

Some people diagnosed as asymptomatic when tested for the CCP virus, however, may go on to develop symptoms later, according to researchers.

The United States has more people behind bars than any other nation, a total incarcerated population of nearly 2.3 million as of 2017—nearly half of which is in state prisons. Smaller numbers are locked in federal prisons and local jails, which typically hold people for relatively short periods as they await trial.

State prison systems in Michigan, Tennessee, and California have also begun mass testing—checking for CCP virus infections in large numbers of inmates even if they show no sign of illness—but have not provided specific counts of asymptomatic prisoners.

Tennessee said a majority of its positive cases didn’t show symptoms. In Michigan, state authorities said “a good number” of the 620 prisoners who tested positive for the CCP virus were asymptomatic. California’s state prison system would not release counts of asymptomatic prisoners.

Each state manages multiple prison facilities. Ohio, for instance, has 49,000 prisoners in 28 facilities. A total 3,837 inmates tested positive for the CCP virus in 15 of those facilities. But the state has not yet provided results on symptoms for 1,809 of them and did not identify the total number of tests conducted across the prison system.

Arkansas and Tennessee have also taken a targeted approach by conducting mass testing in several of their facilities. Michigan, North Carolina, California, and Virginia have started with one facility each.

Most state prisons did not provide the age or other demographic details of those who tested positive for the CCP virus, which has killed more than 200,000 people globally, including more than 53,000 in the United States.
Vast Undercount

Reuters surveyed all 50 state prison systems. Of the 30 that responded, most are only testing inmates who show symptoms, suggesting they could be vastly undercounting the number infected by the CCP virus.

Florida and Texas, whose inmate populations are bigger than Ohio’s, report a combined total of just 931 cases—far fewer than the 3,837 inmates who tested positive in Ohio. New York, the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, has reported 269 positive cases among 51,000 inmates. All three states are testing only symptomatic prisoners.

“Prison agencies are almost certainly vastly undercounting the number of COVID cases among incarcerated persons,” said Michele Deitch, a corrections specialist and senior lecturer at the University of Texas. “Just as the experts are telling us in our free-world communities, the only way to get ahead of this outbreak is through mass testing.”

Prison officials in Florida and Texas said they were following guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention along with state health officials when testing only inmates showing symptoms of the virus. New York’s Department of Corrections said its policy of only testing prisoners who show symptoms was “reflective of testing procedures in the general public.”

Tennessee took an aggressive approach after a dozen inmates tested positive at the Bledsoe County Correctional Complex in the city of Pikeville last week. The state’s Department of Correction has tested 3,503 prisoners at Bledsoe, the Northwest Correctional Complex, and the Turney Center Industrial Complex.

As of Friday, 651 were positive, and most of them were asymptomatic, the department said.

“It’s what makes the pandemic more difficult to manage,” said Marc Stern, former medical director for the Washington State Department of Corrections and a faculty member at the University of Washington’s School of Public Health. “There are a whole lot of people who are asymptomatic.”

After a recent spike in cases at the Neuse Correctional Institution in Goldsboro, North Carolina, state correctional officials tested all 723 prisoners last week. Of the 444 who were infected by the virus, 98 percent were asymptomatic, the state’s department of public safety said. One inmate has died at the prison.

Similarly, mass testing at two Arkansas prisons—the Cummins Unit in the city of Grady and the Community Correction Center in the state capital Little Rock—found 751 infected inmates, almost all of them asymptomatic, the state corrections department said. It did not provide the total number of inmates who were tested.

Arkansas’s prisons have faced contagious disease outbreaks before, such as scabies and chickenpox, but those episodes were easier to manage because inmates showed overt symptoms, said Arkansas Department of Corrections spokeswoman Dina Tyler. “But with this virus, you have no idea because so many are asymptomatic. It makes it very challenging to contain,” she said.
‘24-Hour Turnaround Is Crucial’

Michigan’s Lakeland Correctional Facility houses some of the state’s oldest and most medically frail prisoners. When CCP virus cases surged, the prison saw a spike in infections and deaths. As of April 23, nine Lakeland inmates had died from COVID-19, accounting for a third of the deaths across Michigan’s 29 state prisons.

Nearly half of Lakeland’s 1,400 prisoners suffer from chronic underlying health conditions, according to state data. Many are in wheelchairs, and the minimum-security facility in southern Michigan has its own geriatric unit for its large elderly population.

On Tuesday, the prison tested all 400 inmates in the geriatric ward and plans to test the rest of the facility by the end of the week. Of the 971 tested so far, 642, or about 66 percent, were positive. A state official declined to disclose how many were asymptomatic.

“We know mass testing is going to make our numbers spike and might make us look bad,” said Chris Gautz, spokesman for the Michigan Department of Corrections. “But I don’t think there’s another prison system in the country that doesn’t have large numbers. They just might not be testing as rigorously as we are.”

All tested inmates are quarantined in their rooms or units pending the test results, which usually come back in a day, he said. “The 24-hour turnaround is crucial” because once an inmate tests negative, they can return to the general population, he said.

In the seven state prison systems conducting mass tests, 49 inmates have died.

As the CCP virus spreads behind bars, rights groups and public defenders say they fear more will succumb, and have pressed for the release of nonviolent older and medically high-risk inmates. While thousands have been let out, crowded, often unsanitary conditions have raised concerns that jails and prisons could become vectors for the disease.

“They’re worse than landlocked cruise ships,” Stern, the corrections expert, said, referring to stranded cruise ships that have been overwhelmed by CCP virus infections.

Why do they release criminals over COVID19? It's not novel that if you commit a crime and are sentenced by a jury of your peers to confinement in prison you are likely to get below average health care. This is and has been a well known downside to being a criminal. Why are we releasing them?

If we combine the story with Mayor above taking away people's right to carry arms it gets really confusing.

Need to release the criminals, crime is going up while we are releasing criminals and relaxing enforcement of the law. More criminals and more crimes are being committed, shit let's take away the police and the ability for the citizens to protect themselves.

I really don't understand how the commies think. I know I'm combining multiple stories and multiple locations, but damn. Did anyone think this shit out?

Releasing criminals = more crime.
Relaxed enforcement = more crime.
2A rights stripped = more crime.

Bunch of rocket surgeons.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Why do they release criminals over COVID19? It's not novel that if you commit a crime and are sentenced by a jury of your peers to confinement in prison you are likely to get below average health care. This is and has been a well known downside to being a criminal. Why are we releasing them?

If we combine the story with Mayor above taking away people's right to carry arms it gets really confusing.

Need to release the criminals, crime is going up while we are releasing criminals and relaxing enforcement of the law. More criminals and more crimes are being committed, shit let's take away the police and the ability for the citizens to protect themselves.

I really don't understand how the commies think. I know I'm combining multiple stories and multiple locations, but damn. Did anyone think this shit out?

Releasing criminals = more crime.
Relaxed enforcement = more crime.
2A rights stripped = more crime.

Bunch of rocket surgeons.

Democrats logic:

Release as many criminals as possible.Circumvent prohibition on convicted felons voting by mass pardons by the Governor.

Wife: Did I get fat during quarantine?
Husband: You were never really that thin.
Time of death: 4/26/20 18:30 EST
Cause of death: Corona virus

Tyson and others are getting all sorts of press. This may make the toilet paper hoarding look pedestrian.

quote:

“As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close, even for short periods of time, millions of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain,” John Tyson, Chairman of the Board of Tyson Foods, wrote in a letter published as an advertisement. “As a result, there will be limited supply of our products available in grocery stores until we are able to reopen our facilities that are currently closed.”

Link

LOL!!

Needed some humor this AM...

This and the "Weekend at Kimmies" video totally did the trick.

Thanks!

quote:

Originally posted by Krazeehorse:
Wife: Did I get fat during quarantine?
Husband: You were never really that thin.
Time of death: 4/26/20 18:30 EST
Cause of death: Corona virus