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Originally posted by Doc H.:

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Originally posted by r0gue:

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Originally posted by Doc H.:
...Likely will take several weeks to see an effect, but the visible data would be a dramatic dropoff of infections, and fewer hospitalizations for those who are infected. As noted in the briefings, everything we seeing in the news or from data has a lag - deaths tomorrow will be from infections last week, so almost certainly more bad news for the next month. But I really believe this may turn the corner as a result of this really integral structure of the virus.

As I understand it, in CV19 terms, time travel to our future-state can be done by looking at China, or Italy. So would we see that in China now if we should expect it here. The difficulty being the variables of how they are iron-fist dealing with the population control, and also the reporting accuracy questions.

To restate what I think I'm hearing you say: If this mutates a tiny bit, it's infectiousness should drop. If that's a correct understanding of your comments, then it is infectious because of its genetic makeup specifically and not simply because it is new to human kind?

Thanks!

Correct. More and more, SARS-CoV-2 looks like an accident of creation, and we are the unlucky recipients. It appears to be a combination of viruses, from its genome among betacoronaviruses, or a "chimera," with a unique protein shell that is specific for receptors on human cells. So unlike a pathogen that has been lurking in the jungle, waiting for a random opportunity to infect the right host, it is new to the world, and us. Caused by the mega-trillions of changes viruses undergo daily. This one just happened to be bad. Really bad. It's infectivity is actually it's lethality, because in the process of its replication it destroys the host cell. Times a billion. Our own immune systems exacerbate that, but it would be bad just for the rate and number of cells it destroys. And it owes that to its exterior coat, which it came by purely by accident. It's also durable enough, in the virus world, to spread by droplets in the air, or contact from surfaces recently infected.

Another RNA virus, a rhabdovirus, Rabies Lyssavirus, can be transmitted (as far as we know) almost exclusively by the bite of a rabid animal. It is 100% fatal in an infected host - once symptomatic, there is no treatment or cure (one symptomatic survivor to date of which I'm aware). If it had the same transmission as this virus, it would eradicate 80% of humanity - maybe more - within a year. Purely by chance, it has not.

So the "shell" of this "wee virus thingy" - I love the Scots - is both its weapon and its weakness. Randomly acquired, delicate, and very specific. How vulnerable remains to be seen.

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Originally posted by RAMIUS:

In other news, my 63 year old friend with asthma that tested positive and was in isolation and receiving treatment has been discharged this morning. I’ll give him a call and update you all on his experience later. He was originally very afraid because his blood type is A and that was supposedly a bad thing for his outcome.

Crazy how my other super healthy and younger buddy was on a respirator for 2 weeks, almost died, and now has 30% reduced lung function.

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AUSTIN, Texas — At least 28 University of Texas at Austin students tested positive for coronavirus after returning from a spring break trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Austin Public Health announced Tuesday.

Those students traveled on a chartered flight from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on March 14 and returned March 19, according to an airport official. There were at least 70 students on the outbound flight, and most of them returned on the chartered flight.

But some returned on commercial flights, Austin Public Health said.

The spring break trip, which cost students around $2,000 each, was organized by a Nevada-based company called JusCollege.

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Originally posted by AirmanJeff:

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Originally posted by RAMIUS:

In other news, my 63 year old friend with asthma that tested positive and was in isolation and receiving treatment has been discharged this morning. I’ll give him a call and update you all on his experience later. He was originally very afraid because his blood type is A and that was supposedly a bad thing for his outcome.

Crazy how my other super healthy and younger buddy was on a respirator for 2 weeks, almost died, and now has 30% reduced lung function.

Sounds like any other illness. What kills me may not kill you, and vice versa. Age may help survival rate but there are young people that die every day from various illnesses.

My neighbor's test just came back positive after her test came back (a week later.) She showed no symptoms but was tested due to her job (nurse.)

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Originally posted by Ronin1069:
Am I buying into conspiracy soup or would stuff like this be contributing to inflated death counts?...<.snip..>

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Originally posted by sigfreund:
I realize this is a drift from the usual “It’s dangerous,” “No, it’s not,” back and forthing here, but in the spirit of not opening a new thread related to the topic, I have a question about N95 and similar masks.

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Originally posted by David Lee:
Would a 10mm penetrate its shell?

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Originally posted by AirmanJeff:

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Originally posted by RAMIUS:

In other news, my 63 year old friend with asthma that tested positive and was in isolation and receiving treatment has been discharged this morning. I’ll give him a call and update you all on his experience later. He was originally very afraid because his blood type is A and that was supposedly a bad thing for his outcome.

Crazy how my other super healthy and younger buddy was on a respirator for 2 weeks, almost died, and now has 30% reduced lung function.

Sounds like any other illness. What kills me may not kill you, and vice versa. Age may help survival rate but there are young people that die every day from various illnesses.

My neighbor's test just came back positive (a week later.) She showed no symptoms but was tested due to her job (nurse.)

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Originally posted by Doc H.:

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Originally posted by David Lee:
Would a 10mm penetrate its shell?

To smithereens. Unfortunately, plays hell on the host as well.

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Originally posted by Ronin1069:
Am I buying into conspiracy soup or would stuff like this be contributing to inflated death counts?

I read this guidance from the Ohio Department of Health, and it makes me wonder what kind of pressure doctors are facing...

"COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death."

"When 'probable COVID-19' is indicated on the death certificate, ODH/VS will consider these to be COVID-19 cases with regard to death reporting."

https://med.ohio.gov/Portals/0...9wh5qjTuehwTchzCIZ3U

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Originally posted by RAMIUS:
If you get infected, then recover, are you immune?

Can you go lick door knobs in the Corona ward and not be in danger?

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Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

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Originally posted by midwest guy:

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Originally posted by trapper189:
Looking at the IHME projections for Florida, New York, and Michigan, one thing that strikes me as odd is both New York and Michigan are done 1 month from today while Florida is done 3 months from today. Why the prolonged projection in Florida? My dad might be right to keep his plan to go to Michigan in May.

Florida has not mandated shutdowns ,spring break and senior noncompliance are issues. Regional travel with New Orleans ?

Don't forget NY people fleeing NY for their summer / family homes in FL.

And Orlando / Miami have a lot of same tourist issues as NYC, albeit on a smaller level.

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Originally posted by midwest guy:

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Originally posted by trapper189:
Looking at the IHME projections for Florida, New York, and Michigan, one thing that strikes me as odd is both New York and Michigan are done 1 month from today while Florida is done 3 months from today. Why the prolonged projection in Florida? My dad might be right to keep his plan to go to Michigan in May.

Florida has not mandated shutdowns ,spring break and senior noncompliance are issues. Regional travel with New Orleans ?

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Originally posted by nighthawk:
They had on YouTube last week teenagers going into bathroom stalls and licking toilet seats, because they can’t get the virus. How stupid can people get ?