When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
^^ TP, not TV.
March 31, 2020, 01:49 PM
Balzé Halzé
bendable, you're a true mensch.
~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country
Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan
"Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle
March 31, 2020, 01:55 PM
mojojojo
quote:
Originally posted by maladat: Your bathroom scale, like every measuring instrument on earth, is not perfectly accurate. When you tell someone how much you weigh, is it a WAG?
It depends on the level of accuracy you want. I don't need my weight calculated to the tenth of a gram.
So "scientists" are calculating numbers about this virus that are, at best, an educated guess based on historical information. The issue is that these "best guesses" are being taken as gospel as if Moses himself brought the casualty numbers down from the mountain.
People and governments aren't determining the lives and welfare of millions based on the numbers of my bathroom scale. However, the are using these scientific WAGs - and that's all they are, wild ass guesses gathered from using some "science" and statistics - to control the lives of millions both physically and economically.
So please, don't equate the numbers on a bathroom scale to the mass hysteria being perpetuated by these so called scientists.
Icarus flew too close to the sun, but at least he flew.
March 31, 2020, 02:12 PM
maladat
quote:
Originally posted by mojojojo: So "scientists" are calculating numbers about this virus that are, at best, an educated guess based on historical information.
Not exactly, it's more like they've developed an equation, and the equation has variables for things like how many people each infected person infects, and after how many days, and how long it takes someone to get sick, and how long they stay sick, and things like that.
The estimated values of those variables are taken from observations of the current pandemic, and in general can be very different for epidemics or pandemics of different diseases (or even in different locations, or at different times of year, etc.).
It's the model itself - the equation without the variables filled in - that is validated against past epidemics and pandemics, by entering the estimates for those variables in those past epidemics and pandemics, and seeing how well the model matches up with what actually happened.
Then you can take your estimate of the uncertainty in your estimates for the variables, and work them through the equation, and figure out how much uncertainty there is in the result based on that degree of uncertainty in the inputs.
There are also simpler observational models like "we're seeing the number of cases double every X days."
March 31, 2020, 02:31 PM
nhracecraft
quote:
Originally posted by maladat:
Then you can take your estimate of the uncertainty in your estimates for the variables, and work them through the equation, and figure out how much uncertainty there is in the result based on that degree of uncertainty in the inputs.
If Some is Good, and More is Better.....then Too Much, is Just Enough !! Trump 2024....Save America! "May Almighty God bless the United States of America" - parabellum 7/26/20 Live Free or Die!
March 31, 2020, 02:33 PM
maladat
quote:
Originally posted by nhracecraft:
quote:
Originally posted by maladat:
Then you can take your estimate of the uncertainty in your estimates for the variables, and work them through the equation, and figure out how much uncertainty there is in the result based on that degree of uncertainty in the inputs.
Please STOP!
That part is just basic science... error or uncertainty propagation is a part of huge swaths of science and engineering.
Originally posted by maladat: That part is just basic science... error or uncertainty propagation is a part of huge swaths of science and engineering.
You're missing the point. You're wearing people down with this stuff. No matter what anyone says to you, you keep coming back with stuff like what I quoted. "Here's some figures, here's some more figures, here's the projection of the framastat in the doohickey..." You should give it a rest.
March 31, 2020, 02:42 PM
az4783054
Go outside and get some fresh air...
March 31, 2020, 02:45 PM
ensigmatic
quote:
Originally posted by az4783054: Go outside and get some fresh air...
Are ya ?!?! There are spooky wee virus thingies out there!
"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
March 31, 2020, 02:45 PM
RHINOWSO
This reminds me of this thread sometimes...
March 31, 2020, 02:50 PM
Georgeair
Maybe a little levity should go right here? (pretty sure I didn't miss this earlier)
Originally posted by parabellum: You should give it a rest.
OK.
March 31, 2020, 03:06 PM
Woodman
quote:
Originally posted by Fla. Jim: - cat fight video -
The best version ...
March 31, 2020, 03:14 PM
Stlhead
Skynet went back in time and released the corona virus to soften us up before judgment day. Be afraid, not of the virus, but of the machines that are the virus's masters.
March 31, 2020, 03:16 PM
Stlhead
Or it could be that the corona virus is the one that is supposed to kill off all the dogs and cats, reduce humans to a bunch of screaming savages, and make the apes the rightful rulers of this world.
It's got to be one of those two.
March 31, 2020, 03:18 PM
feersum dreadnaught
quote:
Originally posted by Stlhead: Or it could be that the corona virus is the one that is supposed to kill off all the dogs and cats, reduce humans to a bunch of screaming savages, and make the apes the rightful rulers of this world.
Seattle's chief of police said in a Monday night video that she wants residents to call 911 if called racist names during the coronavirus pandemic.
"Washington state is no place for hate. In a show of solidarity between police and community, I'm joined today by Lori Matsukawa," Chief of Police Carmen Best said, referring to the retired KING 5 news anchor who joined her in the video.
"Hate crimes have no place in our community," Matsukawa continued. "We're better than that, Washington. We're all trying to deal with the COVID-19 public health crisis together. If you are a victim of a hate crime or hate-based harassment, please call 911."
"Exactly," Best said as the video cut back to her. "We will document and investigate every reported hate crime. Even racist name-calling should be reported to police. We take this information very seriously. If aren't sure if a hate crime occurred, call 911. We are here to help and will respond to investigate."
"When we work together," Matsukawa said. "We're safer together," Best said, finishing her sentence.
As the coronavirus pandemic has infected more and more Americans, there's been an uptick in incidents of bias against Asian-Americans who say they are being blamed for the coronavirus, which originated in China.
The message to Seattle citizens that they should call 911 because of racist name-calling comes as Washington has the seventh most confirmed coronavirus cases of any state, as of Tuesday morning, with 5,187. It is second only to New York in deaths with 219.
Hate speech is broadly protected by the First Amendment, meaning there is likely little the Seattle Police Department will be able to do if an incident of racist name-calling is reported. The department would be able to prosecute hate crimes, which under Washington state law include "physical injury" to a person, "physical damage" to a person's property or threats that would put a reasonable person "in reasonable fear of harm to person or property."
The Washington state law on hate crimes clarifies that "[w]ords alone do not constitute a hate crime offense unless the context or circumstances surrounding the words indicate the words are a threat. Threatening words do not constitute a hate crime offense if it is apparent to the victim that the person does not have the ability to carry out the threat."
For fucks sake, Seattle. Its not enough the fed.gov, state.gov, and local.gov think they've suspended key parts of the First, Second, Fourth, Fifth, and Fourteenth Amendments, now we have the police investigating non-crimes?
To what end, besides intimidation by jackbooted thugs?
Where is AirSoftGuy... I want him to go to Seattle and file a police complaint that someone in a group of homeless people called him "honky" and see what response he gets.
Nice is overrated
"It's every freedom-loving individual's duty to lie to the government." Airsoftguy, June 29, 2018
March 31, 2020, 04:06 PM
zipriderson
quote:
Even racist name-calling should be reported to police.
Is this before or after crying to mom and dad about it?
March 31, 2020, 04:20 PM
Patriot
quote:
Originally posted by Il Cattivo: ^^ TP, not TV.
Uh, no...TP is right. You're not familiar with The Great Cornholio? Google it...
_____________________________ Pledge allegiance or pack your bag! The problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher Spread my work ethic, not my wealth
?!?! There are spooky wee virus thingies out there!
