quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
On a somewhat lighter note

that was funny. "what did he say?"

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by LS1 GTO:
Still less than 0.04% of the 300M people in the US are infected.

And of that 0.04%, less than 1% have died.

AND of that 1%, 0.0% had pre-existing conditions.

I suspect the number of infected is far greater, which would lower the mortality rate substantially. Throw in that 95% suffer only mild symptoms and the scope of misplaced panic becomes even more pronounced.

I want to see a test that shows if you display antibodies to see how many have already had it and shook it off so we can get back to business.

Soooo, instead of using 135K infected for the percentage, use 270K infected and now it's 0.009% infected in the US. (FYSA, 120K infected is the currently reported number.)

Numbers show 90 people per day die in car accidents. Where's the quarantine on that?

quote:

Originally posted by LS1 GTO:

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by LS1 GTO:
Still less than 0.04% of the 300M people in the US are infected.

And of that 0.04%, less than 1% have died.

AND of that 1%, 0.0% had pre-existing conditions.

I suspect the number of infected is far greater, which would lower the mortality rate substantially. Throw in that 95% suffer only mild symptoms and the scope of misplaced panic becomes even more pronounced.

I want to see a test that shows if you display antibodies to see how many have already had it and shook it off so we can get back to business.

Soooo, instead of using 135K infected for the percentage, use 270K infected and now it's 0.009% infected in the US. (FYSA, 120K infected is the currently reported number.)

Numbers show 90 people per day die in car accidents. Where's the quarantine on that?

Car accidents, cigarette related, alcohol related, malpractice, assaults, etc, etc, etc. Problem is, you can't attack a president with any of those.

I swear to God, when all of this is over and the data has been analyzed, I'm not just going to say "I told you so." No, I'm going to shout it, and I'm going to try to have a good laugh, despite the real-world damage done by all these panicky cattle and posturing bureaucrats.

I can't wait. I cannot wait for the truth to shut these people up. This is just so wrong, one of the most needless travesties in our lives, and we need the truth to come out ASAP.

quote:

Originally posted by LS1 GTO:
Numbers show 90 people per day die in car accidents. Where's the quarantine on that?

Daily coronavirus deaths in the US:

At the risk of looking like a broken record: Death rate is not the motivating issue for the enforced social distancing efforts. It's health care system load. If we can keep the health care system load to manageable levels we can minimize the CFR.

I truly wish those collecting and publishing all these stats would publish hospitalization rates, rather than infection and case fatality rates. Hospitalization and critical care intervention rates are far more important metrics, IMO.

I’ve been on the sideline for most of this argument. It ain’t ebola, it aint the flu either.

14% of Bergamo, Italy is dead now. That’s a fascinating/horrifying statistic. There is evidence of supercarriers infecting nearly everyone who they come in contact with, and some who are infected, show no symptoms, and infect no one. Some are finding that China is understating their deaths by a magnitude of 15-40 times lower. The media is kicked out, reports of rioting is now coming through in Hubai. Some are saying the ruling group is under tremendous pressure about the earlier denials.

The WHO has been complicit with the CCP in allowing g this to become a global issue. Heads should roll.

NYC is the epicenter as of now. It’s going to be a mess. It’s impossible to social distance living that densely. When the cops get sick, which they will, you will see the true colors of a leftist overburdened, overpopulated city.

The RATE of daily fatalities is doubling every three days. Do a little math and see where that puts us in a month-6 weeks.

Again, it ain’t Ebola, but it ain’t the common flu. It will end up with a true fatality rate of .5-1.5%. About like the Spanish Flu with better care.

Quillette

One thing I've been watching closely is the number of recovered vs the number of deaths. Until today the number of deaths has averaged about double the number of recovered due to the length of the illness. Today the number of recovered surpassed the number of deaths and that will increase over time. It doesn't really mean anything but when folks start seeing the recovered numbers rise perhaps the panic will subside a little.

as of 14:37 edt

confirmed-135530
recovered -2612
Deaths - 2385

Damn, now it's affecting the Rats of New Orleans !
+++LINK+++

CBS News March 28, 2020, 10:52 AM
Rats swarm New Orleans' streets as coronavirus precautions leave them empty

Last Updated Mar 29, 2020 11:42 AM EDT

Precautions put in place to slow the rise of coronavirus cases in New Orleans has inadvertently led to a rat problem for the Louisiana city. With restaurants closed save for take-out service, far less food waste is being discarded in the city's alleyways, driving the local rodent population out into the open to search for scraps.

New Orleans' famous Mardi Gras celebration brought thousands of tourists to the city, and medical experts believe it might be a big factor in the city's COVID-19 outbreak. Now with Bourbon Street's famous bars all closed and people social distancing, videos show dozens of rats scurrying through the empty streets.

"I turn the corner, there's about 30 rats at the corner, feasting on something in the middle of the street," Charles Marsala of New Orleans Insider Tours and AWE News told CBS News' Omar Villafranca. Marsala said he had "never" seen anything like it before.

To control the population, city crews started putting bait in the gutters and placing rat traps throughout the French Quarter neighborhood. New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell said the rats were going "crazy."

Claudia Regal, head of the local pest control board, expressed concern about the possible infections the rat infestation could spread to the local homeless population.

"There are pathogens in these rodents. Fortunately, we don't see many of the health outcomes. We don't have very many disease cases that are actually related to rodents. But the potential is there," she said during a press conference.

She called it a "difficult time to be a rat" due to the limited availability of food scraps.

quote:

NYC is the epicenter as of now. It’s going to be a mess. It’s impossible to social distance living that densely. When the cops get sick, which they will, you will see the true colors of a leftist overburdened, overpopulated city.

I wouldn't want to live in NYC under normal circumstances... but if I was there now, I would leave. I don't think that's panic, it's just smart. I have two nieces who were living/working there and both are now back in the Ellicott City, MD area now.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
At the risk of looking like a broken record: Death rate is not the motivating issue for the enforced social distancing efforts. It's health care system load. If we can keep the health care system load to manageable levels we can minimize the CFR.

I understand that's the point of the mitigation measures.

The graphic was just a response to the "X kills Y people a day and coronavirus has only killed Z people" folks who seem to be ignoring the concept that viruses can spread and infect increasing numbers of people.

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by LS1 GTO:
Still less than 0.04% of the 300M people in the US are infected.

And of that 0.04%, less than 1% have died.

AND of that 1%, 0.0% had pre-existing conditions.

I suspect the number of infected is far greater, which would lower the mortality rate substantially. Throw in that 95% suffer only mild symptoms and the scope of misplaced panic becomes even more pronounced.

I want to see a test that shows if you display antibodies to see how many have already had it and shook it off so we can get back to business.

Word. I’d go so far as to say that our “infected” numbers are wildly inaccurate, have been, and will continue to be for a while. If and when we roll out serious testing, I expect cases to go through the roof. I expect the Lame Stream Media to trumpet this like it is the end of the world. If that happens, I expect we’ll see a “leveling off” that comes more from catching up on testing than any change in the rate of new cases. After that point the numbers *might* bear some resemblance to reality.

A serum antibody test would be awesome as it would take a lot of the BS out of the game. I spoke with a young policewoman this morning (from about 8’ away) while we were both waiting to pick up our to-go coffee & breakfast from the local hangout. She says it is a little stressful as she has a three year old daughter that her high risk Mom helps with while she works as a cop and her husband as a firefighter. She did say that they are doing all kinds of things to be careful, though she thinks both she and her daughter had it back in January.

Only time will tell, but though I started out in the “Let’s take the careful approach to this” camp, I am moving steadily into the “Let’s get on with life” camp. We shall see how it all works out...

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
At the risk of looking like a broken record: Death rate is not the motivating issue for the enforced social distancing efforts. It's health care system load. If we can keep the health care system load to manageable levels we can minimize the CFR.

I understand that's the point of the mitigation measures.

The graphic was just a response to the "X kills Y people a day and coronavirus has only killed Z people" folks who seem to be ignoring the concept that viruses can spread and infect increasing numbers of people.

The graph only shows numbers equal to or exceeding auto related deaths in the US for tha last week or so. They would undoubtedly be lower of people would follow guidelines. Which they are not in large numbers.

The serological testing is going to tell us a whole lot. But, that takes time. I follow a fellow who is going through the roof about the WHO and American officials telling Americans not to buy masks. If this thing can be transmitted through the air it seems to me a mask would work both ways. Keeping it in or out.

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:

Fauci just said America certain to have over a million cases and over 100,000 deaths (a few hours ago)

Trump needs to put a muzzle on Fauci and let Birx do the speaking.

1M cases would equate to approximately 10K deaths, depending on which fatality rate you choose.

My fun facts/numbers for everyone I talk to.
The U.S. is 4.5% of the world's population. Yes less than 5%.
In the 2017-2018 seasonal flu season, the flu killed 61000 just in the U.S.
I would not have known that if I had not looked it up. All I remember about that is everyone saying - "don't forget to get your flu shot".

The 2017- 2018 season essentially being the 4 winter months that year.
So, yeah 15000 a month, or so , over that period.

Here is Fauci;

https://www.yahoo.com/entertai...-grim-165014937.html

“I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases,” then corrected himself to indicate he meant deaths. “We’re going to have millions of cases.” He added, “I don’t want to be held to that,” calling the pandemic ”such a moving target.”

If you do not want to be held to that, then shut your damn mouth.

The problem with letting epidemiologists dictate national policy is similar to letting IP lawyers manage a tech company, or letting the o-ring guy manage the space shuttle program.

Epidemiologists are ALWAYS going to overestimate to worst case scenarios. If you listen to your IP lawyers you will never do anything because of all the "might infringe" guidance that will handcuff everything you do. And the o-ring guy, yeah he was right, but he preached gloom and doom on every launch and people stopped bothering to listen to him - broken clock is right 2 times a day and all.

Experienced managers need to take all the conservative estimates of worst case scenarios and make reasoned decisions based on total system risk.

quote:

Originally posted by holdem:
Here is Fauci;

https://www.yahoo.com/entertai...-grim-165014937.html

“I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases,” then corrected himself to indicate he meant deaths. “We’re going to have millions of cases.” He added, “I don’t want to be held to that,” calling the pandemic ”such a moving target.”

If you do not want to be held to that, then shut your damn mouth.

That quote proves he’s not helping the panic and he knows it. If you don’t know say you don’t know or something like, “numbers are hard to predict at this point”.

Trump should throw that man out on his ass.