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MARCH 26TH, 2020
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year:

Influenza (flu) is a very common, highly infectious disease caused by a virus. It can be very dangerous, causing serious complications and death, especially for people in risk groups. In rare cases flu can kill people who are otherwise healthy. In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013, which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.

Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude

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Originally posted by BansheeOne:
The way the South Korean rate is approaching the one percent seen in the Diamond Princess, which has been pointed out to be a controlled if small population with no doubt about undiscovered cases, I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be the the general CFR given appropriate medical care.

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Spanish Military Finds Dead Bodies And Seniors 'Completely Abandoned' In Care Homes

March 24, 20201:08 PM ET

The Spanish military has found older residents of some care homes "completely abandoned" and even "dead in their beds," Defense Minister Margarita Robles said in a television interview on Monday.

They were found as soldiers disinfected and provided emergency health care services this week to residential homes across the country. Robles did not give an exact figure for the number of dead bodies found by Spanish soldiers.

With more than 39,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 2,800 deaths as of Tuesday, Spain is the second hardest-hit country in Europe.

On Tuesday, 514 new deaths were registered in a 24-hour period, the worst increase since the outbreak began. Retirement homes have been particularly affected.

Last week, one privately owned home in Madrid reported 20 deaths and 75 infections, claiming it didn't have adequate material to take care of the sick residents and dead bodies.

While the usual protocol in Spanish nursing homes is to put the body of a deceased person in cold storage until a funeral service picks it up, bodies are now being left in beds until properly equipped staff can remove them.

Speaking in a television interview, Robles said staff in some centers had left the nursing homes after cases of COVID-19 were detected. Residents were abandoned to take care of themselves, even though some were sick and in serious condition.

The defense minister said the government will take action against those responsible. "We will be completely relentless and forceful with the kind of treatment elderly residents receive in these centers," Robles said. "I know that a vast majority [of centers] are fulfilling their obligations."

Meanwhile, Spanish prosecutors have launched an investigation into the incidents. In Spain, around 19% of the population is older than 65; the country has one of the longest life expectancies in the world.

[...]

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Originally posted by pulicords:
If this were an "ordinary" seasonal "flu" or "just a cold" with an expected death rate of 20,000, the doubters have a point. But it isn't. A death rate of 750,000 to a MILLION or more Americans over the next 12 months is far more serious.

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Originally posted by Patriot:


They are on the front lines...so why would they lie???

Why would the things they say not be true?

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Originally posted by midwest guy:

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Originally posted by bdylan:
History will record this as mass hysteria. I believe I understand the politics of the situation and why the President had to initially go along, but this trillion dollar socialist train wreck is a huge mistake and the country never should have pretended to go on lockdown...it simply will not work here. The stores are packed and I'm sitting in traffic just like always.

Interesting observations, the medical front lines are being stretched to their capacity. So we should just say ok folks all good now, business as usual. I’m afraid the Great Panic narrative has already been negated by the overwhelming of our health system and the lack of PPE. Remember On February 26 we were told this was pretty much airtight and to buy the dips. Bless you all.

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Originally posted by lastmanstanding:

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Originally posted by Ronin1069:

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Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
If Hillary were president we wouldn't even be talking about a virus this would be non existent.

You cannot really believe that.

I do. Change my mind. They would be treating this the same way they treated the swine flu when Obama was in office. Like it barely existed. Where were all the medical experts elbowing each other to get out of their way so they could get their 15 minutes in when the swine flu was killing thousands?

Case in point. The WHO declared the swine flu to be unstoppable. Unstoppable, think about that. That's real everybody is going to die from this ringing the alarm bell talk from the World Health Organization!

Now think about if the CDC or the WHO came out and said that about this current virus. It would be more than just a major headline the civil defense system would be blasting it over the tornado warning sirens in every town across the country.

This is how CNN handled the warning from WHO when they declared the Swine flu unstoppable.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
We went through this when Obama was in office- the "bird flu". Why didn't we fuck up the economy and put Americans out of work back then, huh? You know the answer.

Reuters article from 2010:

Swine flu has killed up to 17,000 in U.S.

Seventeen thousand American deaths from that virus. What did you do during that economic shutdown? Oh, wait- WE DIDN'T FUCKING HAVE ONE!!

Figure it out.

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Originally posted by jimmy123x:
A swab (like a Q-tip) has to be stuck extremely far up your naval cavity.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
I'm not anxious. I'm disgusted.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
I'm not anxious. I'm disgusted.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
2.2 million dead in the US? I'm telling you- some of these people who are making these ridiculous predictions just need to be hung. Coronavirus is not damaging this nation; hysterical, posturing, egotistical, incompetent know-it-alls with an agenda are damaging this nation.

The antidote is hemp, properly knotted and utilized.

Do any of you honestly think for one single second that such an estimate is anything more than fantasy? And we're listening to these boobs?? I don't care how many degrees they have or how well-regarded they are in their field. A prediction of 2.2. million US deaths from this bug is outrageously false.

Oh, but now, you see, we're "taken the necessary precautions", so he can dow "downwardly revise" this figure. Oh, come on. You are fooling a lot of people but you are not fooling all of us.

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Secretary of State Simon: Minnesota should prepare for 'a different kind of election' amid COVID-19

With the COVID-19 pandemic and a major upcoming election, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon said Minnesotans should prepare for "a different kind of election."

"The current public health crisis has been a serious test for all Minnesotans. It has also been a test for our democracy," Simon said in a statement. "I've heard from many Minnesotans who wonder how, or even if, we will vote in this high-stakes election year. My answer is clear: The 2020 statewide elections should go on as scheduled."

Election alternatives Simon has been looking to include statewide include mail ballots and expanding absentee voting.

The expansion of absentee voting could include reducing the number of polling places, moving polling places to a central location and moving polling places from vulnerable locations.

"Whatever option we use, we'll do this thoughtfully and carefully," Simon said. "No one should have to choose between their health and their right to vote."

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Originally posted by mrw:
When I bring up that COVID-19 is just a nasty flu with a higher death rate for elderly people hose me well here are figures that support Para:

In the USA 2017 -2018 flu cases were 45,000,000, flu deaths 61,000. Flu death rate 2017- 2018 0.1% mostly all elderly over 65. Flu is also highly contagious. So far in USA COVID-19 73,500 cases, COVID-19 deaths 1,065. COVID-19 death rate 1.4% mostly all elderly over 65. In order for COVID-19 to catch flu cases we would need 161,000 COVID-19 new cases per day every day until December 31, current new cases per day is 13,555. In order for COVID-19 to catch flu deaths we would need 215 COVID-19 new deaths per day every day until December 31, current new cases per day is 241. COVID-19 is not in the same mass killing league as influenza and will be gone in a month or so. Flu R0 is around 1.3 COVID-19 is around RO 2.0, about the same.