quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
When were we (the healthy, younger folks that will most likely survive without intervention) given a chance to limit our social interactions? How have we not been cooperative?

I don't know about where you are, but, here in Michigan the governor, state and county health officials, etc., as well as the federal government, have been urging people to limit social interaction ever since this thing reared its head.

Our governor held off on implementing shelter in-place in hopes people would voluntarily comply. In her address this morning she noted (paraphrasing): "Unfortunately, residents have continued engaging in unnecessary social interaction." One presumes she had evidence to support that assertion. Of course ICBW.

Hell, up until the end of last week I guess I was as guilty as any. I went out to a shooting range both last Wednesday and the Friday before. Went to my gym both on the 10th and the 11th. While I was exceedingly careful during each excursion, including employing thorough disinfection protocols directly upon returning to my vehicle and again when arriving home, they still didn't qualify as "necessary." Particularly the range trips.

And, even then, if the majority of the public conscientiously employed even a fraction of the disinfection protocols my wife and I have on our recent excursions, a good deal of this, if not most of it, would be unnecessary. But they don't. When I went on my last small fueling and shopping expedition I saw not one individual other than myself wearing gloves. Not a one. I saw not one individual using hand sanitizer or disinfectant wipes when they returned to their cars as I was walking through parking lots. Not one after they finished fueling at the gas station at which I stopped. Few of the members at my gym wiped-down thoroughly after finishing with equipment. I was clothed head-to-foot, including full-fingered gloves, and wiped-down equipment even so.

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
Michigan is under a stay at home order starting at 00:01 on 24 March 2020 for a minimum of 3 weeks.

Already noted twelve posts back from yours: https://sigforum.com/eve/forums...020029764#8020029764

I will gladly go on record as one of several members here who are skeptical about all this data on the Wuhan China Flu. I know I keep harping on the 60,000,000 cases of Swine Flu in the U.S. during the 1-year period between 2009/2010. This source https://www.livescience.com/co...ic-vs-swine-flu.html states the CDC estimated 60.8 million cases (60,800,000) during that approximate 365 day period.

If we do simple math, that equates to 166,575 new cases per day. Right now, the U.S. has realized 40,500 TOTAL cases; approx. 494 cases per day as of 1-JAN...WELL below the daily average with the Swine Flu some 10 years ago. In terms of deaths, there are 473 recorded deaths as of yesterday, which was the 82nd day of the year. That rate equates to 5.76 deaths per day assuming this all started 1-JAN of this year. Ten years ago, the Swine Flu killed 12,500 people in a 365 day period, equating to 34 deaths per day.

Each death is a TRAGEDY and I am absolutely thankful to God my creator that my family, friends, and I, and my invisible friends here on SIGforum are all OK and well prepared. But does anyone start to see why I personally am not too wound up about this and quite frankly, VERY skeptical as to all this panic and hysteria? To be honest, I don’t even REMEMBER the Swine Flu some ten years ago. I can tell you I was flying on average 17 days per month, I can tell you I was stuck in a tube with up to 54 other people on average 4 times per day, and I can tell you there was ZERO evidence of this MASS HYESTERIA to hoard toilet paper, other paper products, and ammo. Well…I guess to be fair there WAS a great deal of ammo hoarding taking place. But that was due to the Crimson Kenyan at that time.

So I just don’t get it. There’s nothing in the numbers thus far that makes me think this will be ANY worse than the Swine Flu of 2009/2010 (if it even REACHES that level), and WE survived it without even knowing it was more than a mere blip on the radar. Those in the health care sector might have had more of a clue, but I can GUARANTEE the masses didn’t know bupkis and didn’t give one stinkin’ hoot about wearing masks, “Social Distancing” (GMAFB ), and hand washing.

This country has allowed itself to get DUPED and its economy has been devastated over NOTHING. I do cautiously state, however, I hope I’m not proven wrong…

God Bless us all!!

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

The part that's missing from this narrative is the S. Korean government also cautioned citizens to avoid unnecessary social interaction. By the accounts I've read, people took it to heart, and the spread was thereby more limited. Americans, much like the Italians, haven't been as cooperative. The other part that's missing is S. Korea was also able to ramp-up testing a good deal faster than we've been able to do.

When were we (the healthy, younger folks that will most likely survive without intervention) given a chance to limit our social interactions? How have we not been cooperative? In Florida on March 13th, an extra week was added to spring break. The rest of the draconian measures happened within the next week.

I agree on the testing point. I'm hoping the 15 days to slow the spread plan is buying time to ramp up testing and figure out where the problem areas are so that the rest of us can go on about our business. We have 3 cases in my county and 1 of those should be in the recovered category as it was first reported 18 days ago.

Near 40% of hospitalizations are age 20-54.

quote:

Originally posted by f2:
From the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security email update 3-23-20 0936 pacific - excerpts:

CHLOROQUINE POISONING

I've nearly posted about this before. I've started to see more posts on FB and other locations about it. Some people just seem clueless and view it as some easy solution to the COVID-19 problem. Some people are talking about it almost like it's aspirin. It is a useful drug, and may be for COVID-19. But it has serious potential side effects. One potential side effect is permanent retina damage.

I was prescribed hydroxychloroquine in the past and I'm very familiar with it. It's serious stuff. When the Dr. prescribed it for me he insisted I immediately talk talk to my ophthalmologist about it. I did and she took it very seriously. While taking the hydroxychloroquine I had regular eye appointments to check for retina damage, she monitored it closely. I was fine, but she had another patient on it that had permanent eye damage.

Just a little personal experience and a caution. Anybody just taking this as a preventative or COVID treatment without consulting a Dr. is a fool and risks all sorts of serious problems, some permanent.

quote:

40,500 TOTAL cases; approx. 494 cases per day

Yes, as an average. Of course today's total new confirmed cases is 5816 for the day so far. Yesterday was over 8000 for the day. I expect we'll top that number today. We may well see at the end of this that the numbers average out smaller, but that doesn't help the hospitals on a day to day basis.

quote:

Originally posted by holdem:

Another 14 days and all commerce will stop. Those of you who think you can work home, sorry, but those jobs will go away. If you are not involved in an essential business; medical, 1st responder, grocery, or something related to an essential business, your job will dissappear.

I have seen the effect in Orlando already. Hotels are locking their doors. Car rentals are down 90%. And on and on.

And it's not just tourism. My friend is the senior attorney in Orlando for a multi-state law firm. He said last week that the phone calls stopped. Not slowed, stopped. He said they are fine for the time being with work in the system, but they will need the pipeline to open back up and get full again.

The "pipeline" still exists and it's simply untrue that it can't be reopened and business can't be resumed. Are we going to hurt for awhile? Absolutely! But enduring some economic pain now can mitigate the far more serious costs associated with losing up to a million or more Americans to the permanent condition of death.

We've had a lot of talk over the years about the "Exceptionalism" of American culture, and how the value of the individual and his/her rights matter. But am I the only one who sees just a bit of hypocrisy, when people that aren't at risk due to their age, seem to be just fine with losing a significant percentage of our older citizenry to avoidable death? Are these "young people" (under 65 years of age) the same ones that partied on (ignoring "social distancing") in Florida, and profited from those parties through ownership of local businesses?

In the 1970's a dystopian future was portrayed by the SciFi movie "Logan's Run", where life revolved around the wants/needs of those under age 30. Upon reaching 30, individuals were deemed to have used up their utility to the majority and were expected to do their civic duty by reporting a government center for assisted suicide, aka: "Retirement." If one revolted and fled, they were hunted down and murdered for the good of the nation. Today, we're faced with the loss of more than 700,000 American citizens, most of whom would be more than 50 years of age. Are we okay with that? Is it because those under 50 simply aren't a significant fraction of the expected deaths?

Many here complain about "abortion on demand" and question the morality of this as a "norm" in a nation dedicated to the sanctity of human life. Is the life of the "unborn" more precious than the lives of those over the age of 50? Aren't we supposed to be "exceptional" because we don't look at Americans as a disposable asset, as a "peasant" or slave, like totalitarian countries such as China, Iran, Cuba, or Venezuela? Why should our citizens' rights mean anything at all if their sole value is determined by their ability to serve the state? Its not hypocritical to write these people off, because you're not one of "them", yet???

We need to recognize that risks associated with a pandemic aren't limited to the loss of life or a depressed economy. The strength of our social fabric is also being tested and if it's torn by selfishness and greed, then who are we to claim we have the moral authority to challenge socialism, communism, or any form of a tyrannical government?

quote:

Originally posted by thunderson:

quote:

40,500 TOTAL cases; approx. 494 cases per day

Yes, as an average. Of course today's total new confirmed cases is 5816 for the day so far. Yesterday was over 8000 for the day. I expect we'll top that number today. We may well see at the end of this that the numbers average out smaller, but that doesn't help the hospitals on a day to day basis.

There were approx. 274,000 hospitalized cases in 2009/2010. That equates to 751 cases admitted to the hospital per day. Unfortunately, I can't find any hard data indicating the number of hospitalizations thus far due to Wuhan China Flu.

And I'm not sure where you're getting numbers or if you're talking about world-wide data. I'm speaking of the United States ONLY. This CDC data shows nowhere NEAR the numbers you're talking about...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...9coronavirus-summary

The chart toward the bottom indicates the highest number of cases on any given day was 331 on 11-MAR.

quote:

Originally posted by erj_pilot:
I will gladly go on record as one of several members here who are skeptical about all this data on the Wuhan China Flu. I know I keep harping on the 60,000,000 cases of Swine Flu in the U.S. during the 1-year period between 2009/2010. This source https://www.livescience.com/co...ic-vs-swine-flu.html states the CDC estimated 60.8 million cases (60,800,000) during that approximate 365 day period.

If we do simple math, that equates to 166,575 new cases per day. Right now, the U.S. has realized 40,500 TOTAL cases; approx. 494 cases per day as of 1-JAN...WELL below the daily average with the Swine Flu some 10 years ago. In terms of deaths, there are 473 recorded deaths as of yesterday, which was the 82nd day of the year. That rate equates to 5.76 deaths per day assuming this all started 1-JAN of this year. Ten years ago, the Swine Flu killed 12,500 people in a 365 day period, equating to 34 deaths per day.

Each death is a TRAGEDY and I am absolutely thankful to God my creator that my family, friends, and I, and my invisible friends here on SIGforum are all OK and well prepared. But does anyone start to see why I personally am not too wound up about this and quite frankly, VERY skeptical as to all this panic and hysteria? To be honest, I don’t even REMEMBER the Swine Flu some ten years ago. I can tell you I was flying on average 17 days per month, I can tell you I was stuck in a tube with up to 54 other people on average 4 times per day, and I can tell you there was ZERO evidence of this MASS HYESTERIA to hoard toilet paper, other paper products, and ammo. Well…I guess to be fair there WAS a great deal of ammo hoarding taking place. But that was due to the Crimson Kenyan at that time.

So I just don’t get it. There’s nothing in the numbers thus far that makes me think this will be ANY worse than the Swine Flu of 2009/2010 (if it even REACHES that level), and WE survived it without even knowing it was more than a mere blip on the radar. Those in the health care sector might have had more of a clue, but I can GUARANTEE the masses didn’t know bupkis and didn’t give one stinkin’ hoot about wearing masks, “Social Distancing” (GMAFB ), and hand washing.

This country has allowed itself to get DUPED and its economy has been devastated over NOTHING. I do cautiously state, however, I hope I’m not proven wrong…

God Bless us all!!

From the SAME article you used to be skeptical...I used to be concerned. Its the RATE at which this thing will spread and overwhelm us. So people will die in higher numbers FROM LACK OF RESOURCES.

Why is this so hard for people to understand??

From your article:

In the U.S., between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%.In the U.S., between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%.The mortality rate for the novel coronavirus is much higher so far, around 2% (although the number will likely change as more people are tested). That may not sound like a big difference, "but when extrapolated, can mean millions more deaths," Strathdee said.

The H1N1 flu was also less contagious than the novel coronavirus. The basic reproduction number, also called the R-nought value, is the expected number of individuals who can catch the virus from a single infected person. For the 2009 H1N1 virus, the mean R-nought value was 1.46, according to a review published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases. For the novel coronavirus, the R-nought value is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5, at the moment.

quote:

Originally posted by alptraum:

quote:

Originally posted by f2:
From the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security email update 3-23-20 0936 pacific - excerpts:

CHLOROQUINE POISONING

I've nearly posted about this before. I've started to see more posts on FB and other locations about it. Some people just seem clueless and view it as some easy solution to the COVID-19 problem. Some people are talking about it almost like it's aspirin. It is a useful drug, and may be for COVID-19. But it has serious potential side effects. One potential side effect is permanent retina damage.

I was prescribed hydroxychloroquine in the past and I'm very familiar with it. It's serious stuff. When the Dr. prescribed it for me he insisted I immediately talk talk to my ophthalmologist about it. I did and she took it very seriously. While taking the hydroxychloroquine I had regular eye appointments to check for retina damage, she monitored it closely. I was fine, but she had another patient on it that had permanent eye damage.

Just a little personal experience and a caution. Anybody just taking this as a preventative or COVID treatment without consulting a Dr. is a fool and risks all sorts of serious problems, some permanent.

I think Hydrochloroquin Sulfate (Plaquenil) is a little different than Chloroquin, but I'm no organic chemist. I've been taking plaquenil for years. Yeah, they check your eyes. There's a LOT of people on it for Rheumatoid Arthritis and Lupus, etc. Just don't OD. That's a bad idea.

quote:

Originally posted by erj_pilot:
So I just don’t get it. There’s nothing in the numbers thus far that makes me think this will be ANY worse than the Swine Flu of 2009/2010 (if it even REACHES that level), and WE survived it without even knowing it was more than a mere blip on the radar. Those in the health care sector might have had more of a clue, but I can GUARANTEE the masses didn’t know bupkis and didn’t give one stinkin’ hoot about wearing masks, “Social Distancing” (GMAFB ), and hand washing.

What's the difference then? You don't know?

quote:

Originally posted by erj_pilot:
I will gladly go on record as one of several members here who are skeptical about all this data on the Wuhan China Flu.

BUT ITALY

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
We’re not even in lockdown in Georgia and there are already businesses here that have closed, permanently.

Not downplaying the potential of this effect over time if this continues but isn't it a little dramatic to suggest that a business has closed "permanently" after having shut the doors for a week or even two? Indefinitely perhaps, likely impacted in efforts to restart but permanently? I bet a few have but they are the exception and most small or midsized business will bounce back if we can get our hands around this shortly.

I know the difference between permanently and indefinitely.

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:
I think Hydrochloroquin Sulfate (Plaquenil) is a little different than Chloroquin, but I'm no organic chemist. I've been taking plaquenil for years. Yeah, they check your eyes. There's a LOT of people on it for Rheumatoid Arthritis and Lupus, etc. Just don't OD. That's a bad idea.

I'm sure it's quite toxic. And I'm sure getting the proper dosage might take some study and adjustments.
But... treatment for coronavirus should be measured in weeks unlike chronic conditions like Rheumatoid Arthritis and Lupus.

quote:

here were approx. 274,000 hospitalized cases in 2009/2010. That equates to 751 cases admitted to the hospital per day. Unfortunately, I can't find any hard data indicating the number of hospitalizations thus far due to Wuhan China Flu.

And you probably won't be able to get accurate numbers on that for a while. We don't know how many new positives are being sent home vs hospitalized. We do know that many aren't even getting tested until they have severe, meaning admitted to a bed, cases. At least according the many of the health professionals. Also these types of decisions are not as yet standardized across the country. There are people bitching because they can't get tested when their doctor orders it and others bitching because they have been hospitalized for days before being tested. So confirmed cases are now a mixture of the walking wounded AND the bedridden. Of course ALL new cases listed today were at best tested yesterday or the day before.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Near 40% of hospitalizations are age 20-54.

I'm sorry, I can't read the article. What's the actual number cited in the article? Percentages are so much fun. I'm 100% percentage more likely to die in the next year if I catch this virus than if I don't. The actual likelihood of my dying in the next year goes from .02% to .04 %. How many of those have other factors? Also, how does that compare to the number of people infected? That's a trick question because we have no clue how many are infected and never will.

We (not me, but the medical folks) will not test everyone. We will test folks who have a high likelihood of testing positive, or those who have other factors that increase their individual risk. Just like we do with every other test administered in medicine. We don't test everybody for AIDS, Hepatitis, Herpes, Prostate Cancer, etc.

I read in this thread that the average age of those dying in Italy is 79. Of those dying 98% had some other factor. For example, 35% of the 98% had diabetes and 24% of the 98% had A-Fib. These folks got tested. So will other folks displaying flu like symptoms that are in this category.

If you are a person, like ensigmatic, who is in a high risk group, or one of your relatives, like ensigmatic's wife, your grandfather, both of my parent's, etc. is in a high risk group, you should take extra precautions. The rest of the world should not shutdown. That's what seems to be working in South Korea.

quote:

And I'm not sure where you're getting numbers or if you're talking about world-wide data. I'm speaking of the United States ONLY. This CDC data shows nowhere NEAR the numbers you're talking about...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...9coronavirus-summary

As has been posted in this thread numerous times.......

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

I have watched these numbers for over a week and each day compare them to numbers reported in press conferences. These numbers are taken directly from the CDC and State Health Departments in near real time.

Also, as stated on the CDC website, they are several days behind on their numbers. Accurate numbers can be obtained through individual states. If date of onset of symptoms is not determined, then that number is not included in CDC's numbers.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...tes/cases-in-us.html

Never made sense why the Chinese locked down 750 Million and we have frozen our economy. Now this might give some insight. https://pjmedia.com/trending/r...-coronavirus-deaths/
If even half true it makes more sense.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:...
But... treatment for coronavirus should be measured in weeks unlike chronic conditions like Rheumatoid Arthritis and Lupus.

Actually it's used as a prophylaxis for Malaria, so it may end up being that for COVID-19.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Near 40% of hospitalizations are age 20-54.

I'm sorry, I can't read the article. What's the actual number cited in the article? Percentages are so much fun. I'm 100% percentage more likely to die in the next year if I catch this virus than if I don't. The actual likelihood of my dying in the next year goes from .02% to .04 %. How many of those have other factors? Also, how does that compare to the number of people infected? That's a trick question because we have no clue how many are infected and never will.

We (not me, but the medical folks) will not test everyone. We will test folks who have a high likelihood of testing positive, or those who have other factors that increase their individual risk. Just like we do with every other test administered in medicine. We don't test everybody for AIDS, Hepatitis, Herpes, Prostate Cancer, etc.

I read in this thread that the average age of those dying in Italy is 79. Of those dying 98% had some other factor. For example, 35% of the 98% had diabetes and 24% of the 98% had A-Fib. These folks got tested. So will other folks displaying flu like symptoms that are in this category.

If you are a person, like ensigmatic, who is in a high risk group, or one of your relatives, like ensigmatic's wife, your grandfather, both of my parent's, etc. is in a high risk group, you should take extra precautions. The rest of the world should not shutdown. That's what seems to be working in South Korea.

Sorry didn't realize it was behind paywall, just first article I found googling the impact on the younger folks like myself. Hopefully I cut and pasted all correctly, doing it from my cellphone.


****

American adults of all ages — not just those in their 70s, 80s and 90s — are being seriously sickened by the coronavirus, according to a report on nearly 2,500 of the first recorded cases in the United States.

The report, issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that — as in other countries — the oldest patients had the greatest likelihood of dying and of being hospitalized. But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.

“I think everyone should be paying attention to this,” said Stephen S. Morse, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “It’s not just going to be the elderly. There will be people age 20 and up. They do have to be careful, even if they think that they’re young and healthy.”

The findings served to underscore an appeal issued Wednesday at a White House briefing by Dr. Deborah Birx, a physician and State Department official who is a leader of the administration’s coronavirus task force. Citing similar reports of young adults in Italy and in France being hospitalized and needing intensive care, Dr. Birx implored the millennial generation to stop socializing in groups and to take care to protect themselves and others.

In the C.D.C. report, 20 percent of the hospitalized patients and 12 percent of the intensive care patients were between the ages of 20 and 44, basically spanning the millennial generation.

“Younger people may feel more confident about their ability to withstand a virus like this,” said Dr. Christopher Carlsten, head of respiratory medicine at the University of British Columbia. But, he said, “if that many younger people are being hospitalized, that means that there are a lot of young people in the community that are walking around with the infection.”

The new data represents a preliminary look at the first significant wave of cases in the United States that does not include people who returned to the country from Wuhan, China, or from Japan, the authors reported. Between Feb. 12 and March 16, there were 4,226 such cases reported to the C.D.C., the study says.

The ages were reported for 2,449 of those patients, the C.D.C. said, and of those, 6 percent were 85 and older, and 25 percent were between 65 and 84. Twenty-nine percent were aged 20 to 44.

The age groups of 55 to 64 and 45 to 54 each included 18 percent of the total. Only 5 percent of cases were diagnosed in people 19 and younger.

The report included no information about whether patients of any age had underlying risk factors, such as a chronic illness or a compromised immune system. So, it is impossible to determine whether the younger patients who were hospitalized were more susceptible to serious infection than most others in their age group.

But experts said that even if younger people in the report were medical outliers, the fact that they were taking up hospital beds and space in intensive care units was significant.

And these more serious cases represent the leading edge of how the pandemic is rapidly unfolding in the United States, showing that adults of all ages are susceptible and should be concerned about protecting their own health, and not transmitting the virus to others.

The youngest age group, people 19 and under, accounted for less than 1 percent of the hospitalizations, and none of the I.C.U. admissions or deaths. This dovetails with data from other countries so far. This week, however, the largest study to date of pediatric cases in China found that a small segment of very young children may need hospitalization for very serious symptoms, and that one 14-year-old boy in China died from the virus.

Of the 44 people whose deaths were recorded in the report, 15 were age 85 or older and 20 were between the ages of 65 to 84. There were nine deaths among adults age 20 to 64, the report said.

Some of the patients in the study are still sick, the authors noted, so the results of their cases are unclear. Data was missing for a number of the cases, “which likely resulted in an underestimation of the outcomes,” the authors wrote. Because of the missing data, the authors presented percentages of hospitalizations, I.C.U. admissions and deaths as a range. The report also says that the limited testing available in the United States so far makes this report only an early snapshot of the crisis.

Still, the authors wrote, “these preliminary data also demonstrate that severe illness leading to hospitalization, including I.C.U. admission and death, can occur in adults of any age with Covid-19.”

Roni Caryn Rabin contributed reporting.

quote:

Originally posted by alptraum:

quote:

Originally posted by f2:
From the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security email update 3-23-20 0936 pacific - excerpts:

CHLOROQUINE POISONING

I've nearly posted about this before. I've started to see more posts on FB and other locations about it. Some people just seem clueless and view it as some easy solution to the COVID-19 problem. Some people are talking about it almost like it's aspirin. It is a useful drug, and may be for COVID-19. But it has serious potential side effects. One potential side effect is permanent retina damage.

I was prescribed hydroxychloroquine in the past and I'm very familiar with it. It's serious stuff. When the Dr. prescribed it for me he insisted I immediately talk talk to my ophthalmologist about it. I did and she took it very seriously. While taking the hydroxychloroquine I had regular eye appointments to check for retina damage, she monitored it closely. I was fine, but she had another patient on it that had permanent eye damage.

Just a little personal experience and a caution. Anybody just taking this as a preventative or COVID treatment without consulting a Dr. is a fool and risks all sorts of serious problems, some permanent.

^^^^^^^^^^^
Word.