quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:
I'm thinking this is where Putin could step up and announce any rogue deployment by any nation (meaning NK) against another nation will face equal retaliation from Russia.

He'll come up smelling like a rose and might win him a Nobel Peace Prize.

This is a very improbably scenario from a logistics basis alone.

Russia, for all the actions it is involved in around the world, cannot support, engage or much less sustain a meaninful front in support of NK. The do not have the ability to project force into a country not adjacent to their own which is why you see direct action in Syria and the Crimea but no where else. They simply do not have the infrastructure to support NK or to provide military assistance on 3 fronts at the same time.

While Russia and NK do share an 11 mile border and Russia did put troops there in April, this is a choke point and not a tactical supply entrance of sustainability.

Russia doens't want NK citizens running into their country as much as China doesn't either.

Russia will offer lip resistance and does like it that NK is a burr under our saddle, but in the end, they think having a US military presence right on their border is less desirable than seeing Little Kim gone with newer and not so crazy Korean in his place that'll be friendly with Russia.

quote:

Originally posted by gpbst3:
Every missile that left NK airspace would be immediately intercepted.

This actually sounds like the simplest solution. Don't we have a spiffy laser weapon?

How about the President offers a reward on Twitter: $25 million plus US citizenship for whoever takes care of him for us. Maybe $25 million is too much.

quote:

Originally posted by deepocean:
How about the President offers a reward on Twitter: $25 million plus US citizenship for whoever takes care of him for us. Maybe $25 million is too much.

$12.50, a weeks supply of cabbage and beets, and 2 goats would probably be enough. . .

Nah, go for the full $25 million. Cheap glamor is best fought with real glamor in depth.

olfuzzy, somebody I know who knows somebody who knows said we'd be lucky to hit half of the ICBMs shot at us.

LtJL... Then tell that person to put up 5x the amount of interceptors they would normally shoot

If this video is accurate. One bomber run could cripple N. Korea.



If deployed. Could it cause military to walk off posts before artillery strike on Seoul?

I'm not even concerned with the nuke capabilities. If we made decisive strike it would take an eternity to launch a nuclear response if they even could.

For msfzoe:

For many years, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have all held back from declaring themselves nuclear powers. Partly because the US prefers that they don't.
DPRK and China very much want to avoid having their neighbors have nuclear arsenals.
Before going to war, a lot of other steps would be tried first, including the nuclear armament of any of China's neighbors.

Allow both the Japanese and South Koreans to develop nukes of their own.

Now we have a nice Mexican circle jerk stand-off.

That'd be a shit show par excellance.

NK reminds me of a rabid pit bull that a low life hood rat keeps because it makes him makes him tough buy proxy, and it scares the decent folks.

Some points:
From the DMZ's OP Dora Seoul is clearly seen. Kim has a couple of thousand artillery pieces ranged on the city. There are a reported 20 tunnels that run under the DMZ that can be used to channel special forces to complete various attacks. If war comes Seoul and South Korea will be devastated.
When nuclear weapons have been wargamed, it's been found that when one side sees that it's going to lose, the chance that they will use nukes goes way, way, up. Could Kim see he's losing and fires off his nukes? Yes. Where would Kim go? What hole can he climb into and be protected. It gurentee that he's thought of that.

Remember that Kims have talked tough for 70 years, but they don't do shit. They pose and posture and it is all a bluff. I don't think this Kim is much, if any, different. He is crazy despot, and louder than Gramps and Dad, but he doesn't appear to be stupid. And China wants a North Korea that isn't our friend. They want that a lot.

I predict this situation stays the same. Kim throws fits, but doesn't do anything. We get all cranked up, but don't do anything. We have been repeating this pattern for decades. There is no viable other option. Attacking the Norks isn't going to happen unless they attack us or the South. Too dangerous. No one wants anything even close to war. This isn't Grenada or like The Falkland Islands. China is right next door.

I bet a steak dinner we are virtually exactly where we are now in five years. The only variable I see is an internal coup that we aren't part of.

quote:

And China wants a North Korea that isn't our friend. They want that a lot.

But China doesn't want a war. Neither do we of course. So... they will probably find a way to put Lil Kim on a bit of a leash to calm this down as you suggest.

quote:

The only variable I see is an internal coup that we aren't part of.

That would be the best for North Korea and for us, but maybe not for China. They have an investment in Kim.

quote:

Originally posted by jhe888:
Remember that Kims have talked tough for 70 years, but they don't do shit. They pose and posture and it is all a bluff. I don't think this Kim is much, if any, different. He is crazy despot, and louder than Gramps and Dad, but he doesn't appear to be stupid. And China wants a North Korea that isn't our friend. They want that a lot.

I predict this situation stays the same. Kim throws fits, but doesn't do anything. We get all cranked up, but don't do anything. We have been repeating this pattern for decades. There is no viable other option. Attacking the Norks isn't going to happen unless they attack us or the South. Too dangerous. No one wants anything even close to war. This isn't Grenada or like The Falkland Islands. China is right next door.

I bet a steak dinner we are virtually exactly where we are now in five years. The only variable I see is an internal coup that we aren't part of.

EXCEPT that Dad and Grand Dad didn't actually possess nuclear weapons.

And 'Lil Kim certainly seems to have a penchant for fireworks

quote:

Originally posted by Expert308:

quote:

Originally posted by Elk Hunter:
From the long ago days when I was the battalion CBR NCO, nukes can be used without downwind fallout. Air burst, in which the fireball does not touch the ground. Hence, no dirt, etc is picked into the fireball and become radioactive.

Used to plot the blast and fallout patterns when stationed in Frankfurt. Huge difference between ground burst and air burst.

Air burst over lil kim's nuke facilities would put them out of commission without fallout. Blast/shock and heat wave would do it.

Wouldn't the blast wave blow everything in the area into the air though, still resulting in fallout?

As I recall, only stuff that goes through/into the fireball become fallout.

The nukes we dropped on Japan were detonated about 3000 feet above the ground. This was done to maximize the blast radius. There are many variables in weaponeering nuke strikes, but I don't think an air burst high enough to avoid fallout would have the desired effects. An airburst may damage/destroy aorcraft and other 'fragile' systems, but what would the purpose of a US nuke strike be?

We can take out their airfields just fine with conventional weapons (and their Air Force is not a significant threat to us). Same thing for their missile launch facilities (I assume these are open gantries like we use for space launches and not buried/hardened silos like we have our ICBMs in). Even if they have silos, JDAMS will take them out with regular explosives.

IMO, nuclear targets would be kim's underground boonker or the artillery pieces ranged on Seoul. BOTH these would require ground bursts to 'dig out' the targets, as air bursts high enough to avoid fallout would not affect them in any meaningful way. Both strikes would result in tons of fallout heading towards SKor and Japan.

Even if the NorKs nuked Guam or Seattle (or anywhere else), I don't see us ever seriously considering nukes.

I'm sure we've had a plan of attack for years. ^^^

I'd be curious how long it would take to cripple his military if we decided on all out war and hit him with everything we had at once. I imagine we could destroy 80%+ of his weapons in 72 hours or less.

why couldn't we use an EMP against them? Would that not render all of their military tech useless? It's not like the innocent people in NK have electricity anyways, so it wouldn't affect them as much