I posted this in another thread, but I found an article that said estimates are 30-40 years before we'll be all EV. Their reasoning was that the average vehicle on the road is 12 years old so even if all cars are electric by 2030, it will be another 20-30 years after that before gas vehicles are completely off the road.

As for maintenance, I mentioned this in the other thread as well - mark my words that when the big manufacturers start working on mass producing EVs, they WILL design them with some b.s. maintenance standards to keep the stealership service dollars flowing. Battery cap checks, battery air filters, battery cooling fluid replacement, etc. There is no way they will let that racket go.

quote:

Originally posted by .38supersig:
All electric by 2030? Yeah, when cars fly.

I agree, all electric NO. BUT, look at how battery technology has advanced in the past 10 years. We literally went from NICAD power tools to Lithium with 4x the battery life. Lithium techonology growth has been amazing in the past 10 years. So I think a much larger percentage of cars will be electric. HOWEVER, HOW are we going to charge them. Our power grids have not grown and while a lot of houses have become more efficient with LED lighting, appliances etc. Not sure there is enough room for every other person to plug their 50 amp electric car charger in. Need A LOT more public chargers and electric vehicles to have a minimum of a 400 mile range for them to really replace gas cars.

Here in South Florida though, Tesla's are as popular as chevy's it seems like. I was at a light yesterday on a 6 lane road (US-1) and there were 4 different Tesla's at the light with me out of about 30 cars. BUT, after an event like a hurricane here, you'd be screwed for 2-3 weeks and no way to recharge unless you have a whole house generator.

Consider we changed from horse to ICE vehicles essentially in 20 years or so, the change to electric vehicles will be much easier.
As far as not having enough power generating capacity much of the charging can be accomplished during periods of excess generation such as daytime where there is excess solar or night when there’s over capacity from coal and gas generating plants.
I imagine in 5-6 years that most people who are in the market for a new car will seriously consider electric.

We are a long ways from an all electric vehicle society. I wouldn’t mind owning a fun-style coupe but until range under load improves I can’t see it across the board.

I also wouldn’t mind having a propane powered vehicle. I know people that were doing conversions 20 years ago that really liked them. Propane compares favorably to gasoline, has far lower emissions, higher equivalent octane ratings by comparison, and reduces combustion related oil contamination which increases engine life. It’s substantially cheaper by the gallon to boot.

The biggest hurdle, like electric, are refueling stations. And like using NG, a big increase in production would result in higher prices.

I really believe diesel electric would have been the way to go, if our lovely EPA didn't so severely screw up diesels in vehicles in this country. Small diesel generator that comes on as needed to recharge the battery bank, as well as the ability to recharge at a charging station and lockout the generator, seems to be the most efficient way when you look at commercial items (not restricted like vehicles in USA) like ships.

I think hybrid is way to go. Especially if they can improve the ability for the gas engine to also charge the batteries while on the road

All electric is a mess especially in very remote areas. Ever see lines at some of those supercharger stations ? People waiting and the time to “fill up” is at least an hour if your tank is low. When I’m on a road trip last thing I want to do is stop somewhere for an hour. Every few hundred miles vs 5-10 minutes ?

Electric really shines on an around town car or short commute daily driver.

The automobile is a vastly superior technology over the horse and buggy. Electric vehicles aren’t a giant leap forward. At best, they are a step side ways.

It's going to happened but anyone that thinks it will happen in ten years must not realize how long it takes to engineer and produce any car. There are tons of manufacturers showing links to their new upcoming ICE engines which further proves it will be way longer than ten years.

There are small countries who will not allow the import of ICE engines in ten years but for the total population of vehicle all going ice that quick, come on use some common sense.

Ohio has seen the future. To register a vehicle they now charge an additional $100 for a hybrid and $200 for a fully electric vehicle to recover the lost gasoline tax revenue.

And climate change is going to kill us all in 11 years. BALONEY. When electric vehicles start to wear out and not hold a decent charge etc. a whole new set of issues will arise.Resale on lets say a 10 year old EV is going to be crap. All of the long range problems are yet to surface.

The infrastructure isn't there, the grid isn't there, the technology isn't there.

Do you think business will happily just drop a whatever it costs to have charging stations in their parking lots, and eat the cost of the electrical usage? I work at a plant that makes electric cars.... there only about 10 charging stations for over 8000 employees. What about parking structures at airports or in large cities?

What do you do with 100 metric tons of highly hazardous lithium and other nasty stuff when the battery packs are crap in 10 years? What do you do when your 10 year old car need a new $10K battery assembly?

How do you travel, you have to map out where there are charging stations, and then add the charging time to your drive. Imagine your last long drive, now imagine one of those shit one gas station towns you stop at to piss and fill up, and sitting there picking your nose while the car charges?

Its not there yet. Its neat technology, and it certainly has its uses and advantages, and you will see it grow a lot in the next few years, but ICE isn't going anywhere.

Currently Electric vehicles can not compare to ICE vehicles when carrying cargo. This person explains it very well. Enjoy and God Bless

There are 300 million cars on the road, US buy 18 million cars a year.

Assuming those numbers are somewhat static it would take 18 years for a complete changeover once only electric cars are made.

So I would guess we are at least 40 years away unless there is a technology breakthrough or the government does something stupid that leaves us stranded on the side of the road for lack of charging stations and range.

quote:

Originally posted by 41

I forgot to add about the maintenance:

You may have heard that car dealers don’t like EVs. That’s because there’s rarely anything that needs fixing. There’s no exhaust system, no fuel tank, no timing belts, no oil changes. There’s no need to replace the brakes because most of the braking is done by the motor itself. As soon as you take your foot off the accelerator, the car starts slowing down and putting power back into the battery. So all of the things that drivers have been accustomed to creating maintenance issues in the past are simply not present in an EV.

I believe this is a huge selling point. Think of the savings in maintenance costs alone, not to mention gasoline. We’re used to being charged $75, $100, even $200 an hour at the dealership when something breaks. That’s no longer a concern with EVs.

.

It’s just going to shift to more expensive and technology intensive repairs. Each manufacturer will have their own systems and procedures for servicing EV systems. While I’ve been out of the dealership world for three years I don’t foresee massive cooperation and technology sharing globally or even between the Ford,GM and FCA as each manufacturer wants to keep their advantage.

Most manufacturers will offer limited training on their vehicle platforms but intensive education on vehicle systems including EV’s will be limited to dealership personnel in the beginning. As time goes by it will filter down to the independent shops and their techs but don’t expect that overnight, the dealers and manufacturers will want th maintain their home court advantage for as long as possible.

Is there enough Lithium in the world to power all transportation using the current EV tech? I frequently hear about peak oil, but where is peak rare earth metals?

Moving heavy things will never be using current battery based storage. We need a huge leap forward in battery tech, and I don't see that happening in the near future.

I find it somewhat humorous that the company name is Nikola. As in Nikola Tesla. Get it?

We already have a fleet of electric Fedex delivery trucks here in Memphis.

Cummins beat Tesla to the punch by producing an electric semi truck but say it could take at least a decade before advancements for the drivetrain will be here to make them viable for use.

https://www.greencarreports.co...maker-takes-on-tesla

quote:

Originally posted by kg5388:
We already have a fleet of electric Fedex delivery trucks here in Memphis.

Cummins beat Tesla to the punch by producing an electric semi truck but say it could take at least a decade before advancements for the drivetrain will be here to make them viable for use.

https://www.greencarreports.co...maker-takes-on-tesla

quote:

If not the truck itself, Cummins is confident the powertrain will be ready for production by that time; the company promises 100 miles of range.

That figure is well below what Tesla's electric-semi truck is rumored to offer: Tesla's electric semi will reportedly have a 200- to 300-mile range.

100-300 mile range! And that’s a class 7 truck, not a typical OTR class 8 truck. That’s not very compelling against the thousand mile range of a diesel truck. Also, the recharge will take eight hours. I think a team of horses would deliver more freight per day.

Like I said, battery tech for moving lots of weight is just environmental masturbation. Batteries just don’t have the necessary energy density.

quote:

Originally posted by 41:
They say by 2030, there will not be anymore vehicles with internal combustion engines. Read David Fessler's book on the changing technology in the next 10 years: "The Energy Disruption Triangle".

https://www.amazon.com/Energy-...-ebook/dp/B07N47WKLF

He also has a website, Investment U, which has some good insights into coming technology:

https://investmentu.com/author/david-fessler/

I forgot to add about the maintenance:

You may have heard that car dealers don’t like EVs. That’s because there’s rarely anything that needs fixing. There’s no exhaust system, no fuel tank, no timing belts, no oil changes. There’s no need to replace the brakes because most of the braking is done by the motor itself. As soon as you take your foot off the accelerator, the car starts slowing down and putting power back into the battery. So all of the things that drivers have been accustomed to creating maintenance issues in the past are simply not present in an EV.

I believe this is a huge selling point. Think of the savings in maintenance costs alone, not to mention gasoline. We’re used to being charged $75, $100, even $200 an hour at the dealership when something breaks. That’s no longer a concern with EVs.

I have to wonder what will happen to the gas stations??...electric charging centers?? Well, Walmart has already started building "Charging Stations" at its stores close to the Interstates.

So, in 2030 how are you going to charge that EV of yours. BTW you do realize that the current Electric Grid is operating at MAXIMUM Capacity for at least 75 days in a year and when it gets really hot major cities experience rolling brownouts/blackouts due to a lack of capacity. As for expanding the grid, I've seen estimates that quadrupling the current capacity of the Grid in the US alone will cost something in the range of 200 to 270 Trillion dollars, note that is a T and not a B. BTW, One Trillion dollars is 1000 Billion dollars and the Gross World Product before the Corona Virus was estimated to be 180 Trillion for 2020. I'll also note that these figures are from internet sources and probably as reliable as the Climate Change crap. However expanding the Grid to permit a 100% EV transport system will NOT be cheap and probably won't be affordable.

What I expect that we will see in 2030 is that each household will be allotted a specific number of Amp Hours per month. You'll be able to use those Amp Hours in any way you want, you can charge your 7000 lbs truck (tank) for perhaps 500 miles of use or you can power up your heat, lights, appliances, and entertainment devices. Note, it will be an either/or choice, you can have a working home or you can have a working tank with limited range. When that happens all of us wise enough to retain a small and fuel efficient vehicle will be motoring in to work on highways distinctly free of space and energy hogging SUV's and Trucks. On the plus side our Nation's issues with Obesity will start to disappear because walking or cycling does burn calories.

Yeah, NOT a fan of SUV's and Trucks. They are NOT energy efficient and most of their drivers are mobile Bullies in regards to smaller vehicles.

quote:

Originally posted by Lord Vaalic:

How do you travel, you have to map out where there are charging stations, and then add the charging time to your drive. Imagine your last long drive, now imagine one of those shit one gas station towns you stop at to piss and fill up, and sitting there picking your nose while the car charges?

I just went to downtown Detroit today. I can just imaging having to sit at a charging station in some of the areas I passed through.