I like what little I've seen of the Rivian and I'm looking forward to learning more about the Nikola
|Only the strong survive|
They say by 2030, there will not be anymore vehicles with internal combustion engines. Read David Fessler's book on the changing technology in the next 10 years: "The Energy Disruption Triangle".
He also has a website, Investment U, which has some good insights into coming technology:
I forgot to add about the maintenance:
You may have heard that car dealers don’t like EVs. That’s because there’s rarely anything that needs fixing. There’s no exhaust system, no fuel tank, no timing belts, no oil changes. There’s no need to replace the brakes because most of the braking is done by the motor itself. As soon as you take your foot off the accelerator, the car starts slowing down and putting power back into the battery. So all of the things that drivers have been accustomed to creating maintenance issues in the past are simply not present in an EV.
I believe this is a huge selling point. Think of the savings in maintenance costs alone, not to mention gasoline. We’re used to being charged $75, $100, even $200 an hour at the dealership when something breaks. That’s no longer a concern with EVs.
I have to wonder what will happen to the gas stations??...electric charging centers?? Well, Walmart has already started building "Charging Stations" at its stores close to the Interstates.
|Savor the limelight|
They are wrong. It's impssoible to replace every ICE vehicle with an alternative in the next 10 years.
On the Nikola, the marketing speak certainly is impressive with all the "up to"s, but 8,000 pound towing capacity is problematic as it won't even tow my boat let alone my 5th wheel.
I think the proverbial wisdom is by 2030 there will be no more “only” ICE vehicles made. They will be either electric, hydrogen propelled, ICE or a hybrid.
And, yes, it’s coming.
Just my 2¢
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right ♫♫♫
Total bologna. Ten years from now we'll be all EV? Comical and absurd. Battery tech isn't anywhere near where it needs to be to make EV's true mass consumption products. Then there's a complete lack of adequate supercharging stations nationwide to support a majority of vehicles being EV's. But most important by far, the national electrical grid and generation system is completely inadequate to support a majority of vehicles being EV's, and there are zero plans to change that paradigm. ICE vehicles will be here for a long time to come unless some huge innovation in EV tech presents itself.
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
Yep. I'm not a flat earther but 2030? You are smoking crack. Not only 0 chance of that happening but I will bet you any amount you want. Total pie in the sky nonsense. First off, EV might be the best thing since sliced bread (it isn't) but the infrastructure isn't even close to making your prediction true.
I think the hybrid thing is going to get bigger. However the price needs to come down. I just bought a new Toyota RAV4 within the last year. The hybrid version out the door was 4000 more than the ICE. 4000 buys a lot of gas.
Level the playing field, get the government out of the market and let Gas vs Electric compete.
If you can sell me a better vehicle at a reasonable price- I don't care what it runs on.
The butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest heart.
|Almost as Fast as a Speeding Bullet|
Looks fairly interesting, and I like the idea of it being an electric/fuel cell vehicle. And at least the designer wasn't smoking crack like the Elonmobile.
Aeronautics confers beauty and grandeur, combining art and science for those who devote themselves to it. . . . The aeronaut, free in space, sailing in the infinite, loses himself in the immense undulations of nature. He climbs, he rises, he soars, he reigns, he hurtles the proud vault of the azure sky. — Georges Besançon
All electric by 2030? Yeah, when cars fly.
My other Sig is a Steyr...
|We gonna get some |
oojima in this house!
At best I can see a small, efficient, turbocharged LNG IC engine being used as a generator much like a diesel electric locomotive. It would also be a plug in. But complete battery power for road tripping is decades away.
TCB all the time...
Yep, Not in 10 year, not in 20. We need a way to take battery cycles from 1500 to well over 30k. We need a battery formula that relies on less rare earth materials. We need the same type of catalyst formula for fuel cells. We need stations to be able to carry and fill hydrogen.
On the face one would think it would be like filling propane, filling hydrogen isn't. Let alone having enough space to set up a hydrogen filling station. I can count only 1 gas station within 25 miles of me that still has a propane filling set up. You have to make an appointment, otherwise, they just sell you a replacement 20lb can.
|Dances with Wiener Dogs|
Yep. Same issue with the "Pickens Plan" from several years back. He talked about switching all cars and trucks to "cheap and plentiful" natural gas. But after switching hundreds of millions of vehicles over, the additional demand would render NG no longer "cheap" nor "plentiful".
Right now EV's are so uncommon that the additional demand on the electric grid is negligible. But flip the formula and make it where even 75% of the vehicles were EV's and that wouldn't be the case. And no way you're building that many additional power plants AND up-rating much of the distribution system in 10 years. Heck, CA has had an inadequate power grid for well over a decade but they can't even add one power plant in a decade. And upgrading the power systems would go from top to bottom. Many older neighborhoods have marginal power delivery now. Homes constructed before we had so many electronic gizmos. Add in hundreds of charging stations and now you're replacing power lines and transformers block by block. And a lot of older homes are maxed out on their electrical systems.
In short, no way the infrastructure could support a change of that magnitude in that time frame. Not practically anyway.
“The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.” Ayn Rand
“If we relinquish our rights because of fear, what is it exactly, then, we are fighting for?” Sen. Rand Paul
The Badger looks pretty cool. However, I would just want a 3/4 ton version with even just a 200 mile range fully laden with cargo or while towing.
|The Ice Cream Man|
As almost all power stations run on NG, and we still have more capacity bring online, I’m pretty sure it would work.
Most O&G folks I know would be all for it, as gasoline is useful for more profitable stuff than burning, and combustion is about all NG is good for.
A well-done hybrid drive train makes the most sense, based on physics. And, it’s more efficient, at least in commercial pumps, to run a large motor at half power than to run a small one at full power, so the electric drive system does seem to be ideal... (I have a Tesla, and charging on road trips gets old, but the power is pretty cool. A small NG/diesel generator would make a nifty addition.
I don’t know how much the grid would overload, with the right control. (Smart meters which prioritize off-peak charging, and battery packs which permit the power company to use the pack to balance the load on the network, could really help)
|The Ice Cream Man|
My car charger is about the same power draw as a home oven. (50 amps)
And I don’t tend to run it at the times I would run my oven... or at peak times of demand for my AC....
We also bought a Rav4 Hybrid last year, a Limited. $800 more than a gas engine model, it was a no brainer. In the summer she was getting right around 50mpg.
If the conversion to all electric, if ever, takes place, what happens when an event (natural or man made) takes down the power grid? At some point the ability to recharge vehicle batteries would be lost, affecting on a massive scale, life as we know it.
ICE can never completely go away. An enemy’s taking down the power grid would have a far greater effect on the US than it does today.
Sgt. USMC 1970 - 1973
|Web Clavin Extraordinaire|
Don't forget the gummint!
No way in hell you'll do away with ICE in 10 years...think of all the lost tax revenues!
Ten years for 50 states (or however many have a gas tax) to come up with whole new tax schemes if suddenly everyone is driving an EV and you can't tax their gas consumption anymore? Even if only hybrids here, you're talking about hitting the states right where it actually hurts. They won't let that stand.
Not only is there a whole infrastructure needed for EVs, but there would need to be some way to maintain current infrastructure without gas taxes paying into those funds.
Chuck Norris put the laughter in "manslaughter"
Educating the youth of America, one declension at a time.
|Void Where Prohibited|
The tax part would be easy for government; they would just switch to a mileage tax or an electric use tax.
"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
If we are talking about new vehicle sales, I can imagine a scenario where a majority of new vehicles being offered for sale in 2030 are EV or hybrid. But the idea that ICE vehicles will be obsolete in 10 years is laughable.
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